Modular risk modeling and management of water infrastructure disaster incidents

Water supply and wastewater control are critical elements of society's infrastructure. The objective of this study will be to provide a generic risk assessment tool to provide municipalities and the nation as a whole with a quantifiable assessment of their vulnerability to water infrastructure threats. The approach will prioritize countermeasures and identify where research and development is required to further minimize risk. This paper outlines the current context, primary concerns and state-of-the art in critical infrastructure risk management for the water sector and proposes a novel approach to resolve existing questions in the field. The proposed approach is based on a modular framework that derives a quantitative risk index for varied domains of interest. The approach methodology is scaleable and based on formal definitions of event probability and severity. The framework is equally applicable to natural and human-induced hazard types and can be used for analysis of compound risk events.

Trust-Level Risk Evaluation and Risk Control Guidance in the NHS East of England

In recent years, the healthcare sector has adopted the use of operational risk assessment tools to help understand the systems issues that lead to patient safety incidents. But although these problem-focused tools have improved the ability of healthcare organizations to identify hazards, they have not translated into measurable improvements in patient safety. One possible reason for this is a lack of support for the solution-focused process of risk control. This article describes a content analysis of the risk management strategies, policies, and procedures at all acute (i.e., hospital), mental health, and ambulance trusts (health service organizations) in the East of England area of the British National Health Service. The primary goal was to determine what organizational-level guidance exists to support risk control practice. A secondary goal was to examine the risk evaluation guidance provided by these trusts. With regard to risk control, we found an almost complete lack of useful guidance to promote good practice. With regard to risk evaluation, the trusts relied exclusively on risk matrices. A number of weaknesses were found in the use of this tool, especially related to the guidance for scoring an event's likelihood. We make a number of recommendations to address these concerns. The guidance assessed provides insufficient support for risk control and risk evaluation. This may present a significant barrier to the success of risk management approaches in improving patient safety. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Clinical practice guidelines for the management of cryptococcal disease: 2010 update by the infectious diseases society of america.

Cryptococcosis is a global invasive mycosis associated with significant morbidity and mortality. These guidelines for its management have been built on the previous Infectious Diseases Society of America guidelines from 2000 and include new sections. There is a discussion of the management of cryptococcal meningoencephalitis in 3 risk groups: (1) human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals, (2) organ transplant recipients, and (3) non-HIV-infected and nontransplant hosts. There are specific recommendations for other unique risk populations, such as children, pregnant women, persons in resource-limited environments, and those with Cryptococcus gattii infection. Recommendations for management also include other sites of infection, including strategies for pulmonary cryptococcosis. Emphasis has been placed on potential complications in management of cryptococcal infection, including increased intracranial pressure, immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS), drug resistance, and cryptococcomas. Three key management principles have been articulated: (1) induction therapy for meningoencephalitis using fungicidal regimens, such as a polyene and flucytosine, followed by suppressive regimens using fluconazole; (2) importance of early recognition and treatment of increased intracranial pressure and/or IRIS; and (3) the use of lipid formulations of amphotericin B regimens in patients with renal impairment. Cryptococcosis remains a challenging management issue, with little new drug development or recent definitive studies. However, if the diagnosis is made early, if clinicians adhere to the basic principles of these guidelines, and if the underlying disease is controlled, then cryptococcosis can be managed successfully in the vast majority of patients.

Risk communication in clinical trials: a cognitive experiment and a survey.

BACKGROUND: A Royal Statistical Society Working Party recently recommended that "Greater use should be made of numerical, as opposed to verbal, descriptions of risk" in first-in-man clinical trials. This echoed the view of many clinicians and psychologists about risk communication. As the clinical trial industry expands rapidly across the globe, it is important to understand risk communication in Asian countries. METHODS: We conducted a cognitive experiment about participation in a hypothetical clinical trial of a pain relief medication and a survey in cancer and arthritis patients in Singapore. In part 1 of the experiment, the patients received information about the risk of side effects in one of three formats (frequency, percentage and verbal descriptor) and in one of two sequences (from least to most severe and from most to least severe), and were asked about their willingness to participate. In part 2, the patients received information about the risk in all three formats, in the same sequence, and were again asked about their willingness to participate. A survey of preference for risk presentation methods and usage of verbal descriptors immediately followed. RESULTS: Willingness to participate and the likelihood of changing one's decision were not affected by the risk presentation methods. Most patients indicated a preference for the frequency format, but patients with primary school or no formal education were indifferent. While the patients used the verbal descriptors "very common", "common" and "very rare" in ways similar to the European Commission's Guidelines, their usage of the descriptors "uncommon" and "rare" was substantially different from the EU's. CONCLUSION: In this sample of Asian cancer and arthritis patients, risk presentation format had no impact on willingness to participate in a clinical trial. However, there is a clear preference for the frequency format. The lay use of verbal descriptors was substantially different from the EU's.

Elective double transfer significantly reduce the risk of multiple pregnancy preserving the chances of pregnancy

info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Making Risk Visible. The role of images in the assessment of (cancer) genetic risk

Whilst analysis of 'risk' (in its many conceptual shapes) has loomed large in both medicine and social sciences over the past 25 years, detailed investigations as to how risk assessments are actually put together (in either lay or professional contexts) are few in number. The studies that are available usually focus on the use of words or everyday conversation in assembling risk. Talking about risk is, of course, important, but what tends to be ignored is the fact that risk can be and is often made visible. For example, it can be made visible through the use of tables, charts, diagrams and various kinds of sophisticated laboratory images. This paper concentrates on the role of such images in the context of a cancer genetics clinic and its associated laboratory. Precisely how these images are tied into the production of risk estimates, how professionals discuss and use such images in clinical work, and how professionals reference them to display facts about risk is the focus of the paper. The paper concludes by highlighting the significance of different kinds of visibility for an understanding of genetic abnormalities and how such differences might impact on the attempts of lay people to get to grips with risk.

Cardiovascular disease risk profiles among 'healthy' siblings of patients with early-onset cardiovascular disease:Application of the new SCORE system

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) occurs more frequently in individuals with a family history of premature CVD. Within families the demographics of CVD are poorly described. DESIGN: We examined the risk estimation based on the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) system and the Joint British Guidelines (JBG) for older unaffected siblings of patients with premature CVD (onset ≤55 years for men and ≤60 years for women). METHODS: Between August 1999 and November 2003 laboratory and demographic details were collected on probands with early-onset CVD and their older unaffected siblings. Siblings were screened for clinically overt CVD by a standard questionnaire and 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG). RESULTS: A total of 790 siblings was identified and full demographic details were available for 645. The following siblings were excluded: 41 with known diabetes mellitus; seven with random plasma glucose of 11.1 mmol/l or greater; and eight with ischaemic ECG. Data were analysed for 589 siblings from 405 families. The mean age was 55.0 years, 43.1% were men and 28.7% were smokers. The mean total serum cholesterol was 5.8 mmol/l and hypertension was present in 49.4%. Using the SCORE system, when projected to age 60 years, 181 men (71.3%) and 67 women (20.0%) would be eligible for risk factor modification. Using JBG with a 10-year risk of 20% or greater, 42 men (16.5%) and four women (1.2%) would be targeted. CONCLUSIONS: Large numbers of these asymptomatic individuals meet both European and British guidelines for the primary prevention of CVD and should be targeted for risk factor modification. The prevalence of individuals defined as eligible for treatment is much higher when using the SCORE system. © 2007 European Society of Cardiology.

Capital substitutability and weak sustainability revisited: The conditions for capital substitution in the presence of risk

The capital approach is frequently used to model sustainability. A development is deemed to be sustainable when capital is not reduced. There are different definitions of sustainability, based on whether or not they allow that different forms of capital may be substituted for each other. A development that allows for the substitution of different forms of capital is called weakly sustainable. This article shows that in a risky world and a risk-averse society even under the assumptions of weak sustainability the circumstances under which different forms of capital may be substituted are limited. This is due to the risk-reducing effect of diversification. Using Modern Portfolio Theory this article shows under which conditions substitution of different forms of capital increases risk for future generations.