Parametric VaR with goodness-of-fit tests based on EDF statistics for extreme returns

Parametric VaR (Value-at-Risk) is widely used due to its simplicity and easy calculation. However, the normality assumption, often used in the estimation of the parametric VaR, does not provide satisfactory estimates for risk exposure. Therefore, this study suggests a method for computing the parametric VaR based on goodness-of-fit tests using the empirical distribution function (EDF) for extreme returns, and compares the feasibility of this method for the banking sector in an emerging market and in a developed one. The paper also discusses possible theoretical contributions in related fields like enterprise risk management (ERM). © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

The Returns to Migration: The Influence of Education and Migration Type

We show the impact of migration type on real wages over time. We create a migration and earnings history from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth over the period 1979-2002. We estimate the effects of primary, onward, and two types of return migration on real wages using a panel data model with individual, location, and time fixed effects. Panel data are well suited for the study of the returns to U.S. internal migration because the influence of migration on wages has been found to occur years after the event. We differentiate return migration into two types: return to a location with ties that form a geographical anchor (home) and return to a prior place of work. We find that real wage growth varies by migration type. Education attainment is a significant factor in real wage growth. Our results show that onward migration is an important channel by which the monetary rewards to a college education are manifested.

Who has really paid for the Reconstruction of East Germany? Expected and Realized Returns on Real Estate Investments in East and West Germany in the 1990s

We evaluate the profitability of investments in residential property in Germany after unification with a focus on the comparison of East and West Germany. Calculations are carried out for (1) the after-tax return an investor might have expected at the beginning of the 1990s, and (2) the after-tax return that has been realized ten years after. We compare a set of statistical data for investments in fifty major cities by using complete financial budgeting. The results show that tax subsidies could not always protect investors from losing money, but they have boosted realized returns after tax considerably. Therefore, it was indeed the taxpayers, not the investors, who have borne the cost of reconstructing East Germany.

Path Dependence in Decision-Making Processes: Exploring the Impact of Complexity under Increasing Returns

The development of path-dependent processes basically refers to positive feedback in terms of increasing returns as the main driving forces of such processes. Furthermore, path dependence can be affected by context factors, such as different degrees of complexity. Up to now, it has been unclear whether and how different settings of complexity impact path-dependent processes and the probability of lock-in. In this paper we investigate the relationship between environmental complexity and path dependence by means of an experimental study. By focusing on the mode of information load and decision quality in chronological sequences, the study explores the impact of complexity on decision-making processes. The results contribute to both the development of path-dependence theory and a better understanding of decision-making behavior under conditions of positive feedback. Since previous path research has mostly applied qualitative case-study research and (to a minor part) simulations, this paper makes a further contribution by establishing an experimental approach for research on path dependence.

Potential Economic Returns from Selling Beef in a Specified Value-Based Market

Three groups of steers--one theoretical group and two experimental groups—were evaluated for marketing cattle live, as boxed beef, and grade and yield when the live price was $71 to $73/cwt, grade and yield price $125/cwt for Choice yield grade 3 carcasses with $20/cwt discount for Select carcasses, and in a commodity-trim or close-trim boxed beef market. The results show that the value of highyielding steers can be significantly increased if sold in a close-trim boxed beef market. The close-trim premiums ranged from $5.06 per head for Select close-trim yield grade 4 carcasses to $87.18 per head for close-trim Choice yield grade 1 carcasses. A group of experimental steers averaging 82% Choice and 60% yield grades 1 and 2 returned an additional $104 in the close-trim boxed market compared with selling live for $73/cwt. Another group of experimental steers averaging 21% Choice, 18% Standard, and 93% yield grades 1 and 2 had $29 per head greater return than if the steers had been sold live for $71/cwt. These comparisons emphasize the importance of knowing how cattle will potentially grade before selecting an alternative marketing strategy. This prior knowledge is most important when the spread in price between Choice and Select is high. Producers need to learn more about their cattle to predict how the cattle may grade for a specified value-based market.

Effect of Frame Size and Hormone Implant on Performance and Carcass Characteristics of Finishing Yearling Heifers: Returns to a Value-Based Market

Four groups of yearling heifers representing different frame sizes—small, medium, and large Angus and medium Simmental—were fed high-grain finishing diets to average Low Choice quality grade. Half the heifers were implanted with estrogen and trenbolone acetate. Backfat and ribeye area were measured by ultrasound four times during the study to assess growth of muscle and fat. Increasing frame size resulted in increased feed intake, greater rates of gain, and a trend towards reduced feed conversion. Greater returns would have been realized from each of the four groups had they been sold in a premium market based on yield grade rather than the conventional grade and yield market. Increasing frame size resulted in greater returns to the value-based market. Implants increased rate of gain and improved feed conversion but did not result in significantly greater returns to the value-based market compared with the grade and yield market. Ribeye area and backfat increased with body weight and time on feed. Increase in ribeye area was linear with time, whereas accumulation of backfat was exponential. Rate of increase in area of ribeye tended to increase and backfat tended to decrease as frame size increased. Implants increased rate of increase in ribeye area but had no effect on rate of deposition of subcutaneous fat. Equations describing growth of ribeye area and backfat for each group predicted average growth for the heifers but did not predict growth of individual heifers. Final carcass yield grade was related to initial thickness of backfat but not to initial ribeye area. These results indicate that the type of cattle selected to be fed for a premium market based on yield grade is important to the success of the program. More work is needed to develop growth equations from ultrasound measurements, but ultrasound will likely be a useful tool in selecting feeder cattle for a value-based market.

Comment: Earnings Returns to Education in Urban China: A Note on Testing Differences among Groups

Comment on Wu and Xie, ASR, June 2003

Impacts of Technology Adoption: Comparing Returns to the Farming Sector in Maine under Alternative Technology Regimes

This thesis tests if certain technology choices are associated with a reduction in the proportion of farming activities in the agro-food system in Maine. Goodman, Sorj, and Wilkinson define appropriationism as the replacement of farming sector activities by industrial inputs. Based on the concept of appropriationism, industrial fanning systems using large amounts of synthetic inputs contribute less to fanning than more agrarian systems, like organic fanning. Thus, returns to the farming sector should be greater for organic compared with conventional potato fanning in Maine since organic farming uses fewer industrial inputs. Goodman et. al. define substitutionism as the displacement of farming sector commodities and activities by industrial processes in the marketing sector. Based on the concept of substitutionism, returns to the farming sector should be greater for Lay's Classic®™ potato chips made from natural potatoes compared with Baked Lay's®™ potato crisps manufactured from processed dehydrated potatoes. Returns to the farming sector are defined as returns to the farmer or farm family from farming activities, returns to farm labor, and returns to farmers and farm labor producing inputs used on the farm. Results show absolute returns to the farming sector are less for organic compared to conventional tablestock potato farms in Maine. However as a proportion of farm revenues, large organic farms that market at least 25% of their produce to retail stores or directly to consumers do as well as conventional farms. When comparing returns as a proportion of consumer expenditures, these organic farms do better than conventional farms. Returns to the farming sector are less for organic because of yield penalties, cost of marketing services, and diseconomies of size for organic tablestock potato farms. Expanding acreage and reintegrating livestock with cropping systems may increase returns to the fanning sector. Organic farming demonstrates difficulties in providing marketing services at the farm level. Providing marketing services limits the ability to expand production to capture economies of size. Maine organic potato farmers emphasize non-monetary values such as supporting sustainable agriculture, self-sufficiency, the intrinsic value of work, and close community and family connections. Returns to the farming sector as a proportion of consumer expenditures are about three times greater for Lay's Classic®™ potato chips than for Baked Lay's®™ potato crisps, since the value that farmers receive for potatoes used to produce dehydrated potato flakes in one pound of crisps is about half of the value that farmers receive for potatoes used to make one pound of chips. However, this assumes farmers assign a cost to producing low-grade potatoes for dehydration proportionate to their value. Premium potatoes are used to produce potato chips. Low-grade potatoes are used to produce the dehydrated potato flakes used to make potato crisps. Returns to the farming sector are slightly greater for potato crisps if no costs are allocated to producing low-grade potatoes for dehydration. A shift in consumer preferences from potato chips to crisps may result in a geographical shift of potato production from Maine to the Pacific Northwest assuming no food-grade dehydration facilities are built in Maine.

Comparing Input- and Output-Oriented Measures of Technical Efficiency to Determine Local Returns to Scale in DEA Models

This paper shows how one can infer the nature of local returns to scale at the input- or output-oriented efficient projection of a technically inefficient input-output bundle, when the input- and output-oriented measures of efficiency differ.

Dynamic Effects of Currency Depreciation on Stock Market Returns during the Asian Financial Crisis

The current international integration of financial markets provides a channel for currency depreciation to affect stock prices. Moreover, the recent financial crisis in Asia with its accompanying exchange rate volatility affords a case study to examine that channel. This paper applies a bivariate GARCH-M model of the reduced form of stock market returns to investigate empirically the effects of daily currency depreciation on stock market returns for five newly emerging East Asian stock markets during the Asian financial crisis. The evidence shows that the conditional variances of stock market returns and depreciation rates exhibit time-varying characteristics for all countries. Domestic currency depreciation and its uncertainty adversely affects stock market returns across countries. The significant effects of foreign exchange market events on stock market returns suggest that international fund managers who invest in the newly emerging East Asian stock markets must evaluate the value and stability of the domestic currency as a part of their stock market investment decisions.

Online Format vs. Live Mode of Instruction: Do Human Capital Differences or Differences in Returns to Human Capital Explain the Differences in Outcomes?

Our paper asks the question: Does mode of instruction format (live or online format) effect test scores in the principles of macroeconomics classes? Our data are from several sections of principles of macroeconomics, some in live format, some in online format, and all taught by the same instructor. We find that test scores for the online format, when corrected for sample selection bias, are four points higher than for the live format, and the difference is statistically significant. One possible explanation for this is that there was slightly higher human capital in the classes that had the online format. A Oaxaca decomposition of this difference in grades was conducted to see how much was due to human capital and how much was due to the differences in the rates of return to human capital. This analysis reveals that 25% of the difference was due to the higher human capital with the remaining 75% due to differences in the returns to human capital. It is possible that for the relatively older student with the appropriate online learning skill set, and with schedule constrains created by family and job, the online format provides them with a more productive learning environment than does the alternative traditional live class format. Also, because our data are limited to the student s academic transcript, we recommend future research include data on learning style characteristics, and the constraints formed by family and job choices.