Electricity price forecasting accounting for renewable energies: optimal combined forecasts

Electricity price forecasting is an interesting problem for all the agents involved in electricity market operation. For instance, every profit maximisation strategy is based on the computation of accurate one-day-ahead forecasts, which is why electricity price forecasting has been a growing field of research in recent years. In addition, the increasing concern about environmental issues has led to a high penetration of renewable energies, particularly wind. In some European countries such as Spain, Germany and Denmark, renewable energy is having a deep impact on the local power markets. In this paper, we propose an optimal model from the perspective of forecasting accuracy, and it consists of a combination of several univariate and multivariate time series methods that account for the amount of energy produced with clean energies, particularly wind and hydro, which are the most relevant renewable energy sources in the Iberian Market. This market is used to illustrate the proposed methodology, as it is one of those markets in which wind power production is more relevant in terms of its percentage of the total demand, but of course our method can be applied to any other liberalised power market. As far as our contribution is concerned, first, the methodology proposed by García-Martos et al(2007 and 2012) is generalised twofold: we allow the incorporation of wind power production and hydro reservoirs, and we do not impose the restriction of using the same model for 24h. A computational experiment and a Design of Experiments (DOE) are performed for this purpose. Then, for those hours in which there are two or more models without statistically significant differences in terms of their forecasting accuracy, a combination of forecasts is proposed by weighting the best models(according to the DOE) and minimising the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The MAPE is the most popular accuracy metric for comparing electricity price forecasting models. We construct the combi nation of forecasts by solving several nonlinear optimisation problems that allow computation of the optimal weights for building the combination of forecasts. The results are obtained by a large computational experiment that entails calculating out-of-sample forecasts for every hour in every day in the period from January 2007 to Decem ber 2009. In addition, to reinforce the value of our methodology, we compare our results with those that appear in recent published works in the field. This comparison shows the superiority of our methodology in terms of forecasting accuracy.

Environmental analysis of a Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plant hybridised with different fossil and renewable fuels

The environmental performance of a 50 MW parabolic trough Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plant hybridised with different fuels was determined using a Life Cycle Assessment methodology. Six different scenarios were investigated, half of which involved hybridisation with fossil fuels (natural gas, coal and fuel oil), and the other three involved hybridisation with renewable fuels (wheat straw, wood pellets and biogas). Each scenario was compared to a solar-only operation. Nine different environmental categories as well as the Cumulative Energy Demand and the Energy Payback Time (EPT) were evaluated using Simapro software for 1 MWh of electricity produced. The results indicate a worse environmental performance for a CSP plant producing 12% of the electricity from fuel than in a solar-only operation for every indicator, except for the eutrophication and toxicity categories, whose results for the natural gas scenario are slightly better. In the climate change category, the results ranged between 26.9 and 187 kg CO2 eq/MWh, where a solar-only operation had the best results and coal hybridisation had the worst. Considering a weighted single score indicator, the environmental impact of the renewable fuels scenarios is approximately half of those considered in fossil fuels, with the straw scenario showing the best results, and the coal scenario the worstones. EPT for solar-only mode is 1.44 years, while hybridisation scenarios EPT vary in a range of 1.72 -1.83 years for straw and pellets respectively. The fuels with more embodied energy are biomethane and wood pellets.

Technology transfer of renewable energy for rural development: historical evolution and lessons of experience from the model WWP

Technology transfer (TT) in the area of renewable energy (RE) throughout history has been an important tool for rural development (RD). Initially, the TT has been conceptualized as the purchase or donation of machinery from first world countries - without any consideration of staff training and contextual conditions for the adaptation of technology to the needs of the country. Various researches have revealed the existence of different approaches to planning the TT of RE, demonstrating the high complexity of projects from the social and contextual dimension. This paper addresses the conceptual evolution of the TT of RE for RD, examining its different periods considered for three criteria: historical events occurred, the role of stakeholders and changing objectives for the TT of RE for RD. For the conceptual analysis of changes the model Working With People (WWP) is used for planning and project management of high social complexity in RD. The analysis defines the existence of four historical periods in the TT of RE and synthesizes the lessons of experience from the three dimensions (ethical-social, technical-entrepreneurial, and political-contextual) of the WWP model.

Production of biodiesel from animal fat using supercritical ethanol

Biodiesel is currently produced from a catalytic transesterification reaction of various types of edible and non-edible oil with methanol. The use of waste animal tallow instead of edible oils opens a route to recycle this waste. This material has the advantage of lower costs but the problem of high content of free fatty acids, becoming necessary a pre-esterification reaction that increases the cost of the catalytic process. The production of biodiesel using supercritical alcohols is appropriate for materials with high acidity and water content, therefore the use of this process with animal fat is a promising alternative. Ethanol has been used because it can be produced from biomass via fermentation resulting in a complete renewable biodiesel, instead of methanol that derives from fossil feedstocks. Two different processes have been studied: first, the direct transesterification of animal fat using supercritical ethanol and second a two-step process where the first step is a hydrolysis of the animal fat and the second step is the esterification of the resulting fatty acids. The temperature, the molar ratio ethanol:fat and the time have been modified in the different reactions to study the effect in the final conversion and the degradation of the unsaturated fatty acid esters, main inconvenient of these high temperature and pressure processes.

Synergies and trade-offs between renewable energy expansion and biodiversity conservation - a cross-national multifactor analysis

Peer reviewed

Global change synergies and trade-offs between renewable energy and biodiversity

Funded by Kone Foundation ERC-StG. Grant Number: 260393 Academy of Finland Centre of Excellence Programme 2012–2017

Renewable Energy Generation at Copper Mountain Resort

Copper Mountain, a Colorado ski area, evaluated onsite renewable energy generation to save on energy costs and reduce carbon emissions. Multiple resort locations were analyzed to determine suitable sites for implementation of solar electricity generation, wind electricity generation and biomass heat production. Potential project sites were assessed based on four criteria: costs and financial returns, environmental impacts, implementation and maintenance, and public relations/marketing opportunities. Solar projects had the lowest capital cost of the three types of renewable energy, and wind projects had high capital costs and low financial returns. Biomass projects had high capital costs, solid financial projections and good marketing value compared to wind and solar technologies. Project implementation recommendations were given based upon the evaluation.

Renewable Energy Systems in the City of Northglenn: Draft Zoning Ordinance and Resident Pamphlet

Recent federal incentives and increased demand for home photovoltaic and small wind electrical systems highlights the need for consistent zoning ordinances and guidance materials for Northglenn residents. This Capstone Project assesses perceived impacts related to renewable energy systems, like noise, safety, aesthetics, and environmental considerations, and provides a model ordinance intended to mitigate these issues. It was concluded a model ordinance would ease and stimulate additions of alternative energy systems in Northglenn. Additionally, this research concluded development of public information could stimulate homeowners into positive decisions. The project also identifies potential financial and environmental benefits of installing such systems in an effort to promote sustainable and clean energy production within the city.

Renewable Energies and Community Associations: Providing Homeowners with Renewable Energy Options

As energy costs increase in Colorado more homeowners will need renewable energies to provide electricity, heating and cooling for their homes. Renewable energy technology and energy efficient measures have been available for decades but Homeowner Associations (HOA) has not permitted this technology into communities primarily because of aesthetics. In April 2008, House Bill 1270 was signed into law that gives homeowners the right to make their homes more energy efficient and install renewable energy generation devices. The purpose of this capstone is to enable HOAs with information on available technology and design guideline options that can be integrated into communities and thus encourage, instead of hinder, the use of renewable energy and energy efficient measures.

Synthesis gas production from various biomass feedstocks

The decomposition of five different biomass samples was studied in a horizontal laboratory reactor. The samples consisted of esparto grass, straw, Posidonea Oceanic seaweed, waste from urban and agricultural pruning and waste from forest pruning. Both pyrolysis in inert atmosphere and combustion in the presence of oxygen were studied. Different heating rates were used by varying the input speed. Major gas compounds were analyzed. The experimental results show that the amount of CO formed is lower in less dense species. It is also found that there is an increase of hydrocarbons formed at increasing feeding rates, in particular methane, while there is a decrease in the production of hydrogen.

Refinery Nonconventional Feedstocks: Influence of the Coprocessing of Vacuum Gas Oil and Low Density Polyethylene in Fluid Catalytic Cracking Unit on Full Range Gasoline Composition

Gasoline coming from refinery fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit is a major contributor to the total commercial grade gasoline pool. The contents of the FCC gasoline are primarily paraffins, naphthenes, olefins, aromatics, and undesirables such as sulfur and sulfur containing compounds in low quantities. The proportions of these components in the FCC gasoline invariable determine its quality as well as the performance of the associated downstream units. The increasing demand for cleaner and lighter fuels significantly influences the need not only for novel processing technologies but also for alternative refinery and petrochemical feedstocks. Current and future clean gasoline requirements include increased isoparaffins contents, reduced olefin contents, reduced aromatics, reduced benzene, and reduced sulfur contents. The present study is aimed at investigating the effect of processing an unconventional refinery feedstock, composed of blend of vacuum gas oil (VGO) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) on FCC full range gasoline yields and compositional spectrum including its paraffins, isoparaffins, olefins, napthenes, and aromatics contents distribution within a range of operating variables of temperature (500–700 °C) and catalyst-feed oil ratio (CFR 5–10) using spent equilibrium FCC Y-zeolite based catalyst in a FCC pilot plant operated at the University of Alicante’s Research Institute of Chemical Process Engineering (RICPE). The coprocessing of the oil-polymer blend led to the production of gasoline with very similar yields and compositions as those obtained from the base oil, albeit, in some cases, the contribution of the feed polymer content as well as the processing variables on the gasoline compositional spectrum were appreciated. Carbon content analysis showed a higher fraction of the C9–C12 compounds at all catalyst rates employed and for both feedstocks. The gasoline’s paraffinicity, olefinicity, and degrees of branching of the paraffins and olefins were also affected in various degrees by the scale of operating severity. In the majority of the cases, the gasoline aromatics tended toward the decrease as the reactor temperature was increased. While the paraffins and iso-paraffins gasoline contents were relatively stable at around 5 % wt, the olefin contents on the other hand generally increased with increase in the FCC reactor temperature.

Bio-renewable enantioselective aldol reaction in natural deep eutectic solvents

Among the deep eutectic solvents (DES), natural deep eutectic solvents (NADES) formed by D-glucose and racemic malic acid are suitable media to perform the enantioselective L-proline catalyzed intermolecular aldol reaction, creating simultaneously and selectively a C–C bond and a new stereocenter. The scope of the reaction was found to be broad, with products being obtained with good levels of diastereo- and enantioselectivities. Furthermore, when the reaction was performed at a large scale, the catalyst together with the reaction media can be recovered by simple water extraction and reused at least three times affording similar results. Therefore, the use of NADES as reaction media to carry out a VOC-free selective process has been demonstrated for the first time. The process is clean, cheap, simple and scalable and meets most of the criteria to be considered as a sustainable and bio-renewable process, with the reaction media and catalyst arising directly from Nature.