A computable general equilibrium analysis of the relative price sensitivity required to induce rebound effects in response to an improvement in energy efficiency in the UK economy

In recent years there has been extensive debate in the energy economics and policy literature on the likely impacts of improvements in energy efficiency. This debate has focussed on the notion of rebound effects. Rebound effects occur when improvements in energy efficiency actually stimulate the direct and indirect demand for energy in production and/or consumption. This phenomenon occurs through the impact of the increased efficiency on the effective, or implicit, price of energy. If demand is stimulated in this way, the anticipated reduction in energy use, and the consequent environmental benefits, will be partially or possibly even more than wholly (in the case of ‘backfire’ effects) offset. A recent report published by the UK House of Lords identifies rebound effects as a plausible explanation as to why recent improvements in energy efficiency in the UK have not translated to reductions in energy demand at the macroeconomic level, but calls for empirical investigation of the factors that govern the extent of such effects. Undoubtedly the single most important conclusion of recent analysis in the UK, led by the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) is that the extent of rebound and backfire effects is always and everywhere an empirical issue. It is simply not possible to determine the degree of rebound and backfire from theoretical considerations alone, notwithstanding the claims of some contributors to the debate. In particular, theoretical analysis cannot rule out backfire. Nor, strictly, can theoretical considerations alone rule out the other limiting case, of zero rebound, that a narrow engineering approach would imply. In this paper we use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework to investigate the conditions under which rebound effects may occur in the Scottish regional and UK national economies. Previous work has suggested that rebound effects will occur even where key elasticities of substitution in production are set close to zero. Here, we carry out a systematic sensitivity analysis, where we gradually introduce relative price sensitivity into the system, focusing in particular on elasticities of substitution in production and trade parameters, in order to determine conditions under which rebound effects become a likely outcome. We find that, while there is positive pressure for rebound effects even where (direct and indirect) demand for energy is very price inelastic, this may be partially or wholly offset by negative income and disinvestment effects, which also occur in response to falling energy prices.

The Relative Efficiency of Automatic and Discretionary Industrial Aid

For the last two decades, the primary instruments for UK regional policy have been discretionary subsidies. Such aid is targeted at “additional” projects - projects that would not have been implemented without the subsidy - and the subsidy should be the minimum necessary for the project to proceed. Discretionary subsidies are thought to be more efficient than automatic subsidies, where many of the aided projects are non-additional and all projects receive the same subsidy rate. The present paper builds on Swales (1995) and Wren (2007a) to compare three subsidy schemes: an automatic scheme and two types of discretionary scheme, one with accurate appraisal and the other with appraisal error. These schemes are assessed on their expected welfare impacts. The particular focus is the reduction in welfare gain imposed by the interaction of appraisal error and the requirements for accountability. This is substantial and difficult to detect with conventional evaluation techniques.

Long-term fluctuation of relative afferent pupillary defect in subjects with normal visual function.

PURPOSE: To determine whether the relative afferent pupillary defect (RAPD) remains constant over time in normal subjects. METHODS: Seventeen normal subjects were tested with infrared pupillography and automated perimetry in four sessions over 3 years. The changes in RAPD and visual field asymmetry between testing sessions were compared. RESULTS: The range of RAPD was 0.0 to 0.3 log unit, and the difference in the mean deviation between the eyes on automated static perimetry was 0 to 3 dB. Eight subjects repeatedly had an RAPD in the same eye. There was no correlation between the RAPD and the visual field asymmetry at the same visit. Changes in the magnitude of the RAPD between any two sessions were typically small (median, 0.08 log unit; 25th percentile, 0.04 log unit; 75th percentile, 0.15 log unit). CONCLUSIONS: Some normal subjects may show a persistent but small RAPD in the absence of detectable pathologic disease. Therefore, an isolated RAPD in the range of 0.3 log unit that is not associated with any other significant historical or clinical finding should probably be considered benign.

Correlated equilibria, good and bad: an experimental study

We report results from an experiment that explores the empirical validity of correlated equilibrium, an important generalization of the Nash equilibrium concept. Specifically, we seek to understand the conditions under which subjects playing the game of Chicken will condition their behavior on private, third–party recommendations drawn from known distributions. In a “good–recommendations” treatment, the distribution we use is a correlated equilibrium with payoffs better than any symmetric payoff in the convex hull of Nash equilibrium payoff vectors. In a “bad–recommendations” treatment, the distribution is a correlated equilibrium with payoffs worse than any Nash equilibrium payoff vector. In a “Nash–recommendations” treatment, the distribution is a convex combination of Nash equilibrium outcomes (which is also a correlated equilibrium), and in a fourth “very–good–recommendations” treatment, the distribution yields high payoffs, but is not a correlated equilibrium. We compare behavior in all of these treatments to the case where subjects do not receive recommendations. We find that when recommendations are not given to subjects, behavior is very close to mixed–strategy Nash equilibrium play. When recommendations are given, behavior does differ from mixed–strategy Nash equilibrium, with the nature of the differ- ences varying according to the treatment. Our main finding is that subjects will follow third–party recommendations only if those recommendations derive from a correlated equilibrium, and further, if that correlated equilibrium is payoff–enhancing relative to the available Nash equilibria.

Evaluating the usefulness of forecasts of relative growth

Forecasts of differences in growth between countries serve an important role in the justification of governments’ fiscal policy stances, but are not tested for their accuracy as part of the current range of forecast evaluation methods. This paper examines forecasted and outturn growth differentials between countries to identify if there is usefulness in forecasts of “relative” growth. Using OECD forecasts and outturn values for GDP growth for (combinations of) the G7 countries between 1984 and 2010, the paper finds that the OECD’s success in predicting the relative growth of G7 countries during this period is good. For each two-country combination results indicate that relative growth forecasts are less useful for countries which have smaller outturn growth differentials.

Age, Life-satisfaction, and Relative Income – Insights from the UK and Germany

We first confirm previous results with the German Socio-Economic Panel by Layard et al. (2010), and obtain strong negative effects of comparison income. However, when we split the sample by age, we find quite different results for reference income. The effects on lifesatisfaction are positive and significant for those under 45, consistent with Hirschman’s (1973) ‘tunnel effect’, and only negative (and larger than in the full sample) for those over 45, when relative deprivation dominates. Thus for young respondents, reference income’s signalling role, indicating potential future prospects, can outweigh relative deprivation effects. Own-income effects are also larger for the older sample, and of greater magnitude than the comparison income effect. In East Germany the reference income effects are insignificant for all. With data from the British Household Panel Survey, we confirm standard results when encompassing all ages, but reference income loses significance in both age groups, and most surprisingly, even own income becomes insignificant for those over 45, while education has significant negative effects.

Detecting and measuring deprivation in primary care: development, reliability and validity of a self-reported questionnaire: the DiPCare-Q.

OBJECTIVES: Advances in biopsychosocial science have underlined the importance of taking social history and life course perspective into consideration in primary care. For both clinical and research purposes, this study aims to develop and validate a standardised instrument measuring both material and social deprivation at an individual level. METHODS: We identified relevant potential questions regarding deprivation using a systematic review, structured interviews, focus group interviews and a think-aloud approach. Item response theory analysis was then used to reduce the length of the 38-item questionnaire and derive the deprivation in primary care questionnaire (DiPCare-Q) index using data obtained from a random sample of 200 patients during their planned visits to an ambulatory general internal medicine clinic. Patients completed the questionnaire a second time over the phone 3 days later to enable us to assess reliability. Content validity of the DiPCare-Q was then assessed by 17 general practitioners. Psychometric properties and validity of the final instrument were investigated in a second set of patients. The DiPCare-Q was administered to a random sample of 1898 patients attending one of 47 different private primary care practices in western Switzerland along with questions on subjective social status, education, source of income, welfare status and subjective poverty. RESULTS: Deprivation was defined in three distinct dimensions: material (eight items), social (five items) and health deprivation (three items). Item consistency was high in both the derivation (Kuder-Richardson Formula 20 (KR20) =0.827) and the validation set (KR20 =0.778). The DiPCare-Q index was reliable (interclass correlation coefficients=0.847) and was correlated to subjective social status (r(s)=-0.539). CONCLUSION: The DiPCare-Q is a rapid, reliable and validated instrument that may prove useful for measuring both material and social deprivation in primary care.

Skeletal Muscle Mitochondrial and Lipid Droplet Volume Density: Validity of Electron Microscopy Point-counting Measurements

Mitochondrial (M) and lipid droplet (L) volume density (vd) are often used in exercise research. Vd is the volume of muscle occupied by M and L. The means of calculating these percents are accomplished by applying a grid to a 2D image taken with transmission electron microscopy; however, it is not known which grid best predicts these values. PURPOSE: To determine the grid with the least variability of Mvd and Lvd in human skeletal muscle. METHODS: Muscle biopsies were taken from vastus lateralis of 10 healthy adults, trained (N=6) and untrained (N=4). Samples of 5-10mg were fixed in 2.5% glutaraldehyde and embedded in EPON. Longitudinal sections of 60 nm were cut and 20 images were taken at random at 33,000x magnification. Vd was calculated as the number of times M or L touched two intersecting grid lines (called a point) divided by the total number of points using 3 different sizes of grids with squares of 1000x1000nm sides (corresponding to 1µm2), 500x500nm (0.25µm2) and 250x250nm (0.0625µm2). Statistics included coefficient of variation (CV), 1 way-BS ANOVA and spearman correlations. RESULTS: Mean age was 67 ± 4 yo, mean VO2peak 2.29 ± 0.70 L/min and mean BMI 25.1 ± 3.7 kg/m2. Mean Mvd was 6.39% ± 0.71 for the 1000nm squares, 6.01% ± 0.70 for the 500nm and 6.37% ± 0.80 for the 250nm. Lvd was 1.28% ± 0.03 for the 1000nm, 1.41% ± 0.02 for the 500nm and 1.38% ± 0.02 for the 250nm. The mean CV of the three grids was 6.65% ±1.15 for Mvd with no significant differences between grids (P>0.05). Mean CV for Lvd was 13.83% ± 3.51, with a significant difference between the 1000nm squares and the two other grids (P<0.05). The 500nm squares grid showed the least variability between subjects. Mvd showed a positive correlation with VO2peak (r = 0.89, p < 0.05) but not with weight, height, or age. No correlations were found with Lvd. CONCLUSION: Different size grids have different variability in assessing skeletal muscle Mvd and Lvd. The grid size of 500x500nm (240 points) was more reliable than 1000x1000nm (56 points). 250x250nm (1023 points) did not show better reliability compared with the 500x500nm, but was more time consuming. Thus, choosing a grid with square size of 500x500nm seems the best option. This is particularly relevant as most grids used in the literature are either 100 points or 400 points without clear information on their square size.

Validity of impedance-based equations for the prediction of total body water as measured by deuterium dilution in African women.

BACKGROUND: Little information is available on the validity of simple and indirect body-composition methods in non-Western populations. Equations for predicting body composition are population-specific, and body composition differs between blacks and whites. OBJECTIVE: We tested the hypothesis that the validity of equations for predicting total body water (TBW) from bioelectrical impedance analysis measurements is likely to depend on the racial background of the group from which the equations were derived. DESIGN: The hypothesis was tested by comparing, in 36 African women, TBW values measured by deuterium dilution with those predicted by 23 equations developed in white, African American, or African subjects. These cross-validations in our African sample were also compared, whenever possible, with results from other studies in black subjects. RESULTS: Errors in predicting TBW showed acceptable values (1.3-1.9 kg) in all cases, whereas a large range of bias (0.2-6.1 kg) was observed independently of the ethnic origin of the sample from which the equations were derived. Three equations (2 from whites and 1 from blacks) showed nonsignificant bias and could be used in Africans. In all other cases, we observed either an overestimation or underestimation of TBW with variable bias values, regardless of racial background, yielding no clear trend for validity as a function of ethnic origin. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this cross-validation study emphasize the need for further fundamental research to explore the causes of the poor validity of TBW prediction equations across populations rather than the need to develop new prediction equations for use in Africa.

Bilateral symmetry of radial pulse in high-level tennis players: implications for the validity of central aortic pulse wave analysis.

BACKGROUND: Reconstruction of the central aortic pressure wave from the noninvasive recording of the radial pulse with applanation tonometry has become a standard tool in the field of hypertension. It is not presently known whether recording the radial pulse on the dominant or the nondominant side has any effect on such reconstruction. METHOD: We carried out radial applanation tonometry on both forearms in young, healthy, male volunteers, who were either sedentary (n = 11) or high-level tennis players (n = 10). The purpose of including tennis players was to investigate individuals with extreme asymmetry between the dominant and nondominant upper limb. RESULTS: In the sedentary individuals, forearm circumference and handgrip strength were slightly larger on the dominant (mean +/- SD respectively 27.9 +/- 1.5 cm and 53.8 +/- 10 kg) than on nondominant side (27.3 +/- 1.6 cm, P < 0.001 vs. dominant, and 52.1 +/- 11 kg, P = NS). In the tennis players, differences between sides were more conspicuous (forearm circumference: dominant 28.0 +/- 1.7 cm nondominant 26.4 +/- 1.5 cm, P < 0.001; handgrip strength 61.4 +/- 10.8 vs. 53.4 +/- 9.7 kg, P < 0.001). We found that in both sedentary individuals and tennis players, the radial pulse had identical shape on both sides and, consequently, the reconstructed central aortic pressure waveforms, as well as derived indices of central pulsatility, were not dependent on the side where applanation tonometry was carried out. CONCLUSION: Evidence from individuals with maximal asymmetry of dominant vs. nondominant upper limb indicates that laterality of measurement is not a methodological issue for central pulse wave analysis carried out with radial applanation tonometry.

Relative susceptibility of different stages of Rhodinius Prolixus to the entomopathogenic Hyphomycete Beauveria Bassiana

Laboratory bioassays were conducted to determine the relative suscepbility of eggs, 1st-, 3rd-, 5th- instar nymphs and adults of Rhodnius prolixus to one isolate of the entomopathogenic hyphomycete, Beauveria bassiana. Treatments consisted of directly spraying on insects of increasing doses of inoculum (3 x 10* to 3 x 10 (elevated to 5th potency) conidia per cm*). Mortality due to all doses of conidia was very high in the five tested stages of the target insect. Experiments on eggs demonstrated that the fungal isolate was able to kill eggs before they hatched. Both time-mortality and dose-mortality responses showed that the susceptibility of R. prolixus varied according to its stage of development and increased with age. As matter of fact, at the dose of 3 x 10* conidia per cm*, LD50 varied between 11.2 days in 1st-instar nymphs and 6.4 days in both 5th-instar nymphs and adults. Comparison of LD50 permitted to estimate that 1st-instar nymphs were about 700-fold less susceptible than the two oldest stages

Systematics of Triatoma sordida, T. guasayana and T. patagonica (Hemiptera, Reduviidae)

Because of the relative epidemiological significance of Triatoma sordida, T. guasayana and T. patagonica, and the need to resolve doubts about their taxonomic validity, we report here a detailed taxonomic comparison of the three species using multivariate analysis of morphometric measures combined with comparisons of their genitalia and antennal structures. From the 17 metric variables studied, the length of the second segment of the rostrum and the anteocular length provided a discrimination function able to separate without error T. sordida from T. guasayana and T. patagonica. The multivariate discriminant functions classified T. guasayana and T. patagonica with an error of 2.44%. Comparison of the male genitalia of T. guasayana and T. sordida showed that there are minor differences in the articulatory apparatus, the median process of the pygophore, the phallosome support and the vesica, with bigger differences in the endosomal process and the phallosome. However, the already described male genitalia of T. patagonica is very similar to that of T. sordida. Analysis of antennal structure by scanning electron microscope showed that sensilla distribution around the pedicel is slightly different in the three species and sensilla density is highest in T. sordida and lowest in T. patagonica. The study showed that the three species form a closely related group. The results confirm the earlier classification of sordida and guasayana as separate species, but they raise some doubts about the taxonomic status of T. patagonica.

CD8+ T-cell response to NY-ESO-1: relative antigenicity and in vitro immunogenicity of natural and analogue sequences.

We have shown previously that HLA-A*0201 melanoma patients can frequently develop a CTL response to the cancer testis antigen NY-ESO-1. In the present study, we have analyzed in detail the relative antigenicity and in vitro immunogenicity of natural and modified NY-ESO-1 peptide sequences. The results of this analysis revealed that, although suboptimal for binding to the HLA-A*0201 molecule, peptide NY-ESO-1 157-165 is, among natural sequences, very efficiently recognized by specific CTL clones derived from three melanoma patients. In contrast, peptides NY-ESO-1 157-167 and NY-ESO-1 155-163, which bind very strongly to HLA-A*0201, are recognized less efficiently. In agreement with previous data, substitution of peptide NY-ESO-1 157-165 COOH-terminal C with various other amino acids resulted in a significantly increased binding to HLA-A*0201 molecules as well as in an increased CTL recognition, although variable at the clonal level. Among natural peptides, NY-ESO-1 157-165 and NY-ESO-1 157-167 exhibited good in vitro immunogenicity, whereas peptide NY-ESO-1 155-163 was poorly immunogenic. The fine specificity of interaction between peptide NY-ESO-1 C165A, HLA-A*0201, and T-cell receptor was analyzed at the molecular level using a series of variant peptides containing single alanine substitutions. The findings reported here have significant implications for the formulation of NY-ESO-1-based vaccines as well as for the monitoring of either natural or vaccine-induced NY-ESO-1-specific CTL responses in cancer patients.