Present-day Pattern Variations in the Central and Eastern Pacific El Nino

El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a cycle that is initiated in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is recognized on interannual timescales by oscillating patterns in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) and atmospheric circulations. Using correlation and regression analysis of datasets that include SST’s and other interdependent variables including precipitation, surface winds, sea level pressure, this research seeks to quantify recent changes in ENSO behavior. Specifically, the amplitude, frequency of occurrence, and spatial characteristics (i.e. events with maximum amplitude in the Central Pacific versus the Eastern Pacific) are investigated. The research is based on the question; “Are the statistics of ENSO changing due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations?” Our hypothesis is that the present-day changes in amplitude, frequency, and spatial characteristics of ENSO are determined by the natural variability of the ocean-atmosphere climate system, not the observed changes in the radiative forcing due to change in the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Statistical analysis, including correlation and regression analysis, is performed on observational ocean and atmospheric datasets available from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and coupled model simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (phase 5, CMIP5). Datasets are analyzed with a particular focus on ENSO over the last thirty years. Understanding the observed changes in the ENSO phenomenon over recent decades has a worldwide significance. ENSO is the largest climate signal on timescales of 2 - 7 years and affects billions of people via atmospheric teleconnections that originate in the tropical Pacific. These teleconnections explain why changes in ENSO can lead to climate variations in areas including North and South America, Asia, and Australia. For the United States, El Niño events are linked to decreased number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, reduction in precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, and increased precipitation throughout the southern United Stated during winter months. Understanding variability in the amplitude, frequency, and spatial characteristics of ENSO is crucial for decision makers who must adapt where regional ecology and agriculture are affected by ENSO.

Savani: A variable resolution whole-mantle model of anisotropic shear velocity variations based on multiple data sets

International audience

Effets des variations dans l’implantation d’un programme sur le risque cardiométabolique dans six CSSS de Montréal sur les résultats chez les patients

En 2011, l’Agence de la santé et des services sociaux de Montréal (ASSSM), en partenariat avec les Centres de santé et services sociaux (CSSS) de la région, a coordonné la mise en œuvre d’un programme de prévention et de prise en charge intégré sur le risque cardiométabolique. Ce programme, s’inspirant du Chronic Care Model et s’adressant aux patients atteints de diabète et d’hypertension artérielle, est d’une durée de deux ans et comporte une séquence de suivis individuels avec l’infirmière et la nutritionniste, de cours de groupe et de séances d’activité physique. L’objectif de ce mémoire est d’évaluer, à l’aide d’un devis quasi-expérimental, l’impact de la variation dans l’implantation de certains aspects du programme dans les six CSSS participant à l’étude sur les résultats de santé des patients. Cinq aspects du programme ont été retenus : les ressources, la conformité au processus clinique prévu dans le programme régional, la maturité du programme, la coordination interne au sein de l’équipe de soins et la coordination externe avec les médecins de 1re ligne. Des analyses de différence de différences, incluant des scores de propension afin de rendre les groupes comparables, ont été effectuées dans le but d’évaluer l’influence de ces aspects sur quatre indicateurs de santé : l’hémoglobine glyquée, l’atteinte de la cible de tension artérielle et l’atteinte de deux cibles d’habitudes de vie concernant la répartition des glucides alimentaires et la pratique d’activité physique. Les résultats indiquent que les indicateurs de santé sélectionnés se sont améliorés chez les patients participant au programme et ce, indépendamment des variations dans son implantation entre les CSSS participant à l’étude. Très peu d’analyses de différence de différences ont en effet relevé un impact significatif des variables d’implantation étudiées sur ces indicateurs. Les résultats suggèrent que les effets bénéfiques d’un tel programme sont davantage tributaires de la prestation des interventions auprès des patients que d’aspects organisationnels liés à son implantation.

An Analysis of the Factors that Influence Regional Economic Development Cooperation

This dissertation is a comparative case study of regional cooperation in the field of economic development. In the 21st century global economy, proponents of regionalism have put forth fresh arguments for collective action. A regional approach to economic development activity presents a classic social dilemma: How can local officials collectively improve the economic prospects of a region, and remain autonomous to act in the best interest of the local community? This research examines the role of social capital in overcoming this social dilemma. Three (3) comparable Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) form the empirical basis of this research. The Houston MSA, the Atlanta MSA and the Miami MSA present distinct variations of regionalized economic development activity. This dissertation seeks to explain this disparity in the dependent variable. The hypothesis is that accrued social capital is crucial to obtaining economic development cooperative agreements. This qualitative research utilized secondary demographic and economic databases, survey instruments, interviews, field observations, and a review of legislative and administrative decisions to formulate a clear understanding of the factors influencing the current state of regional economic development cooperation within each region. The study concludes that the legislative and executive decisions of state government exert inordinate influence on the capacity of local officials to cooperate regionally for economic development purposes.

Effets des variations dans l’implantation d’un programme sur le risque cardiométabolique dans six CSSS de Montréal sur les résultats chez les patients

En 2011, l’Agence de la santé et des services sociaux de Montréal (ASSSM), en partenariat avec les Centres de santé et services sociaux (CSSS) de la région, a coordonné la mise en œuvre d’un programme de prévention et de prise en charge intégré sur le risque cardiométabolique. Ce programme, s’inspirant du Chronic Care Model et s’adressant aux patients atteints de diabète et d’hypertension artérielle, est d’une durée de deux ans et comporte une séquence de suivis individuels avec l’infirmière et la nutritionniste, de cours de groupe et de séances d’activité physique. L’objectif de ce mémoire est d’évaluer, à l’aide d’un devis quasi-expérimental, l’impact de la variation dans l’implantation de certains aspects du programme dans les six CSSS participant à l’étude sur les résultats de santé des patients. Cinq aspects du programme ont été retenus : les ressources, la conformité au processus clinique prévu dans le programme régional, la maturité du programme, la coordination interne au sein de l’équipe de soins et la coordination externe avec les médecins de 1re ligne. Des analyses de différence de différences, incluant des scores de propension afin de rendre les groupes comparables, ont été effectuées dans le but d’évaluer l’influence de ces aspects sur quatre indicateurs de santé : l’hémoglobine glyquée, l’atteinte de la cible de tension artérielle et l’atteinte de deux cibles d’habitudes de vie concernant la répartition des glucides alimentaires et la pratique d’activité physique. Les résultats indiquent que les indicateurs de santé sélectionnés se sont améliorés chez les patients participant au programme et ce, indépendamment des variations dans son implantation entre les CSSS participant à l’étude. Très peu d’analyses de différence de différences ont en effet relevé un impact significatif des variables d’implantation étudiées sur ces indicateurs. Les résultats suggèrent que les effets bénéfiques d’un tel programme sont davantage tributaires de la prestation des interventions auprès des patients que d’aspects organisationnels liés à son implantation.

Explaining the Outcomes of Negotiations of Economic Partnership Agreements between the European Union and the African, Caribbean and Pacific Regional Economic Communities - Comparing EU-CARIFORUM and EU-ECOWAS EPAs

The European Commission has been negotiating Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) with Regional Economic Communities of African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of States since 2002. The outcomes have been mixed. The negotiations with the Caribbean Forum (CARIFORUM) concluded rather more quickly than was initially envisaged, whereas negotiations with West African Economic Community (ECOWAS) and the remaining ACP regions have been dragging on for several years. This research consequently addresses the key question of what accounts for the variations in the EPA negotiation outcomes, making use of a comparative research approach. It evaluates the explanatory power of three research variables in accounting for the variation in the EPA negotiations outcomes – namely, Best Alternative to the Negotiated Agreement (BATNA); negotiation strategies; and the issues linkage approach – which are deduced from negotiation theory. Principally, the study finds that, the outcomes of the EPA negotiations predominantly depended on the presence or otherwise of a “Best Alternative” to the proposed EPA; that is then complemented by the negotiation strategies pursued by the parties, and the joint application of issues linkage mechanism which facilitated a sense of mutual benefit from the agreements.

Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia: climate trends and regional pasture production in Brazil.

Projected change in forage production under a range of climate scenarios is important for the evaluation of the impacts of global climate change on pasture-based livestock production systems in Brazil. We evaluated the effects of regional climate trends on Panicum maximum cv. Tanzânia production, predicted by agro-meteorological model considering the sum of degree days and corrected by a water availa bility index. Data from Brazilian weather stations (1963?2009) were considered as the current climate (baseline), and future scenarios, based on contrasting scenarios interms of increased temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations (high and low increases), were determined for 2013?2040 (2025 scenario) and for 2043?2070 (2055 scenario). Predicted baseline scenarios indicated that there are regional and seasonal variations in P. maximum production related to variation intemperature and water availability during the year. Production was lower in the Northeast region and higher in the rainforest area. Total annual productionunder future climate scenarios was predicted toincrease by up to 20% for most of the Brazilian area, mainly due to temperature increase, according to each climate model and scenario evaluated. The highest increase in forage production is expected to be in the South, Southeast and Central-west areas of Brazil. In these regions, future climate scenarios will not lead to changes in the seasonal production, with largerincreases in productivity during the summer. Climate risk is expected to decrease, as the probability of occurrence of low forage productions will be lower. Due to the predicted increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall in the Northeast area, P. maximum production is expected to decrease, mainly when considering scenarios based on the PRECIS model for the 2055 scenario.