Variabilidade genética, conectividade e reiliência de populações de lapas nas ilhas da Macronésia (Atlântico-NE)

Jornadas "Ciência nos Açores – que futuro? Tema Ciências Naturais e Ambiente", Ponta Delgada, 7-8 de Junho de 2013.

Strong and weak Allee effects and chaotic dynamics in Richards' growths

In this paper we define and investigate generalized Richards' growth models with strong and weak Allee effects and no Allee effect. We prove the transition from strong Allee effect to no Allee effect, passing through the weak Allee effect, depending on the implicit conditions, which involve the several parameters considered in the models. New classes of functions describing the existence or not of Allee effect are introduced, a new dynamical approach to Richards' populational growth equation is established. These families of generalized Richards' functions are proportional to the right hand side of the generalized Richards' growth models proposed. Subclasses of strong and weak Allee functions and functions with no Allee effect are characterized. The study of their bifurcation structure is presented in detail, this analysis is done based on the configurations of bifurcation curves and symbolic dynamics techniques. Generically, the dynamics of these functions are classified in the following types: extinction, semi-stability, stability, period doubling, chaos, chaotic semistability and essential extinction. We obtain conditions on the parameter plane for the existence of a weak Allee effect region related to the appearance of cusp points. To support our results, we present fold and flip bifurcations curves and numerical simulations of several bifurcation diagrams.

Population ecology of the multivoltine Neotropical gall midge Eugeniamyia dispar (Diptera, Cecidomyiidae)

Our understanding of the population ecology of insect gallers is largely built on examples from temperate zones, but tropical and subtropical gallers may present distinct patterns of abundance and distribution across time. Eugeniamyia dispar Maia, Mendonça & Romanowski, 1996 is a multivoltine Neotropical cecidomyiid that induces spongy leaf galls on Eugenia uniflora (Myrtaceae). Galls were censused in the urban area of Porto Alegre, southern Brazil on six plants at two sites, for two years, at roughly weekly intervals. Overall 9,694 eggs, galling attempts and galls were counted. New galls continuously appear on developing leaves, but galls with live inducers are absent from June to at least early August. Galls on a same shoot develop synchronically, thus the shoot is probably the unit for oviposition. Given the also synchronic appearance of galls on different plants on a site, it seems midges can disperse and attack close-by plants. Gall cohorts varied in abundance by two orders of magnitude; there were more galls during summer than for spring and autumn, in a wave-like pattern. Host plant leaf production was seasonal, with low production during winter and cyclic production during the rest of the year. Perhaps because of this very variable pattern, gall abundance did not follow leaf production: this galler is not synchronised with its host at least during most of the year. This multivoltine gall inducer with "labile" galls, short development time, partially overlapping generations and low host synchronisation differs from the commonly studied species of the temperate regions providing a subject for ecological comparisons.

Population biology of the crab Armases angustipes (Crustacea, Decapoda, Sesarmidae) at Brazilian tropical coast

The semi terrestrial crabs are important elements of the fauna of coastal regions. The aim of this study was to analyze the population structure of Armases angustipes (Dana, 1852) at estuaries of the Ariquindá River, considered a non impacted area, and Mamucabas River, considered a few impacted area, on the south coast of state of Pernambuco, Brazil. The species occurred in all months of the year. The number of individuals per month varied, being higher in the months of transition between the seasons. This is probably due to significant seasonal variations of air and burrow temperature and burrow salinity. There was no sexual dimorphism in size of A. angustipes in the mangrove of Ariquindá River, but males were larger than females in the mangrove of Mamucabas River. In both estuaries, the sex ratio did not differ from Mendelian proportion, but showed a deviation for females. The analysis of temporal variation in sex ratio showed significant differences in some months of the year. These variations are due to cyclical events that act distinctly on each sex. In both estuaries, size classes of carapace width were equally represented by both sexes. The ovigerous females of A. angustipes occurred only in some months of the year, especially in summer, in both estuaries. Probably the high phytoplankton productivity observed in summer favors the reproductive activity, since these algae serve as food for the larvae. Specimens of the population of Rio Ariquindá are largest and wider than those of Mamucabas River. This fact, associated with the low abundance of crabs and the lower frequency of ovigerous females observed in Mamucabas River, is an indication that this population may be influenced by the environmental impacts that this estuary has received.

Population demography and the evolution of helping behaviors.

Limited dispersal may favor the evolution of helping behaviors between relatives as it increases their relatedness, and it may inhibit such evolution as it increases local competition between these relatives. Here, we explore one way out of this dilemma: if the helping behavior allows groups to expand in size, then the kin-competition pressure opposing its evolution can be greatly reduced. We explore the effects of two kinds of stochasticity allowing for such deme expansion. First, we study the evolution of helping under environmental stochasticity that may induce complete patch extinction. Helping evolves if it results in a decrease in the probability of extinction or if it enhances the rate of patch recolonization through propagules formed by fission of nonextinct groups. This mode of dispersal is indeed commonly found in social species. Second, we consider the evolution of helping in the presence of demographic stochasticity. When fecundity is below its value maximizing deme size (undersaturation), helping evolves, but under stringent conditions unless positive density dependence (Allee effect) interferes with demographic stochasticity. When fecundity is above its value maximizing deme size (oversaturation), helping may also evolve, but only if it reduces negative density-dependent competition.

Modelling of bird distribution under complex mediterranean landscape dynamics: open habitat birds and fire (MEDFIRE)

Report for the scientific sojourn at the Simon Fraser University, Canada, from July to September 2007. General context: landscape change during the last years is having significant impacts on biodiversity in many Mediterranean areas. Land abandonment, urbanisation and specially fire are profoundly transforming large areas in the Western Mediterranean basin and we know little on how these changes influence species distribution and in particular how these species will respond to further change in a context of global change including climate. General objectives: integrate landscape and population dynamics models in a platform allowing capturing species distribution responses to landscape changes and assessing impact on species distribution of different scenarios of further change. Specific objective 1: develop a landscape dynamic model capturing fire and forest succession dynamics in Catalonia and linked to a stochastic landscape occupancy (SLOM) (or spatially explicit population, SEPM) model for the Ortolan bunting, a species strongly linked to fire related habitat in the region. Predictions from the occupancy or spatially explicit population Ortolan bunting model (SEPM) should be evaluated using data from the DINDIS database. This database tracks bird colonisation of recently burnt big areas (&50 ha). Through a number of different SEPM scenarios with different values for a number of parameter, we should be able to assess different hypothesis in factors driving bird colonisation in new burnt patches. These factors to be mainly, landscape context (i.e. difficulty to reach the patch, and potential presence of coloniser sources), dispersal constraints, type of regenerating vegetation after fire, and species characteristics (niche breadth, etc).

Asynchronous growth and competition in a two-sex age-structured population model

Asynchronous exponential growth has been extensively studied in population dynamics. In this paper we find out the asymptotic behaviour in a non-linear age-dependent model which takes into account sexual reproduction interactions. The main feature of our model is that the non-linear process converges to a linear one as the solution becomes large, so that the population undergoes asynchronous growth. The steady states analysis and the corresponding stability analysis are completely made and are summarized in a bifurcation diagram according to the parameter R0. Furthermore the effect of intraspecific competition is taken into account, leading to complex dynamics around steady states.

Optimal latent period in a bacteriophage population model structured by infection-age

We study the lysis timing of a bacteriophage population by means of a continuously infection-age-structured population dynamics model. The features of the model are the infection process of bacteria, the natural death process, and the lysis process which means the replication of bacteriophage viruses inside bacteria and the destruction of them. We consider that the length of the lysis timing (or latent period) is distributed according to a general probability distribution function. We have carried out an optimization procedure and we have found the latent period corresponding to the maximal fitness (i.e. maximal growth rate) of the bacteriophage population.

Mass effects mediate coexistence in competing shrews.

Recent developments in metacommunity theory have raised awareness that processes occurring at regional scales might interfere with local dynamics and affect conditions for the local coexistence of competing species. Four main paradigms are recognized in this context (namely, neutral, patch-dynamics, species-sorting, and mass-effect), which differ according to the role assigned to ecological or life-history differences among competing species, as well as to the relative time scale of regional vs. local dynamics. We investigated the patterns of regional and local coexistence of two species of shrews (Crocidura russula and Sorex coronatus) sharing a similar diet (generalist insectivores) over four generations, in a spatially structured habitat at the altitudinal limit of their distributions. Local populations were small, and regional dynamics were strong, with high rates of extinction and recolonization. Niche analysis revealed significant habitat differentiation on a few important variables, including temperature and availability of winter resting sites. In sites suitable for both species, we found instances of local coexistence with no evidence of competitive exclusion. Patterns of temporal succession did not differ from random, with no suggestion of a colonization-competition trade-off. Altogether, our data provide support for the mass-effect paradigm, where regional coexistence is mediated by specialization on different habitat types, and local coexistence by rescue effects from source sites. The strong regional dynamics and demographic stochasticity, together with high dispersal rates, presumably contributed to mass effects by overriding local differences in specific competitive abilities.

Ecology of malaria vectors in the Americas and future direction

The resurgence of malaria in the Americas has renewed interest in Anopheles biology. Anopheles darlingi, An. albimanus, An. nuneztovai and An aquasalis are reconfirmed as major malaria vectors and other species are playing important roles in regional malaria transmission. Adultbiting activity and larval ecology are discussed in detail. Seasonal abundance and daily biting activity of Anopheles vary considerably among species and geographically for the same species. Anopheles albimanus has the least amount of variation in biting activity over its range and An. darlingi has the greatest. All species studied are more exophilic and exophagic than endophilic and endophagic. Anopheles darling is more antropophilic, endophilic and endophagic than other Anophelines. Larval studies remain more descriptive than comprehensive. Research on Anophelines is becoming more integrated and biologists are using new biochemical techniques and ecological principles to answer critical questions. This "pluralization" will help us understand species complexes, population dynamics and malaria transmission. integrated control programs will require more regional, in-depth ecological studies.

Dynamics of experimental populations of native and introduced blowflies (Diptera: Calliphoridae): mathematical modelling and the transition from asymptotic equilibrium to bounded oscillations

The equilibrium dynamics of native and introduced blowflies is modelled using a density-dependent model of population growth that takes into account important features of the life-history in these flies. A theoretical analysis indicates that the product of maximum fecundity and survival is the primary determinant of the dynamics. Cochliomyia macellaria, a blowfly native to the Americas and the introduced Chrysomya megacephala and Chrysomya putoria, differ in their dynamics in that the first species shows a damping oscillatory behavior leading to a one-point equilibrium, whereas in the last two species population numbers show a two-point limit cycle. Simulations showed that variation in fecundity has a marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations and aperiodic behavior. Variation in survival has much less influence on the dynamics.

Spatio-temporal dynamics and transition from asymptotic equilibrium to bounded oscillations in Chrysomya albiceps (Diptera, Calliphoridae)

The sensitivity of parameters that govern the stability of population size in Chrysomya albiceps and describe its spatial dynamics was evaluated in this study. The dynamics was modeled using a density-dependent model of population growth. Our simulations show that variation in fecundity and mainly in survival has marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations. C. albiceps exhibits a two-point limit cycle, but the introduction of diffusive dispersal induces an evident qualitative shift from two-point limit cycle to a one fixed-point dynamics. Population dynamics of C. albiceps is here compared to dynamics of Cochliomyia macellaria, C. megacephala and C. putoria.

Introduction of Trojan sex chromosomes to boost population growth.

Conservation programs that deal with small or declining populations often aim at a rapid increase of population size to above-critical levels in order to avoid the negative effects of demographic stochasticity and genetic problems like inbreeding depression, fixation of deleterious alleles, or a general loss of genetic variability and hence of evolutionary potential. In some situations, population growth is determined by the number of females available for reproduction, and manipulation of family sex ratios towards more daughters has beneficial effects. If sex determination is predominantly genetic but environmentally reversible, as is the case in many amphibia, reptiles, and fish, Trojan sex chromosomes could be introduced into populations in order to change sex ratios towards more females. We analyse the possible consequences for the introduction of XX-males (XX individuals that have been changed to phenotypic males in a XY/XX sex determination system) and ZW males, WW males, or WW females (in a ZZ/ZW sex determination system). We find that the introduction of WW individuals can be most effective for an increase of population growth, especially if the induced sex change has little or no effect on viability.

Seasonal dynamics of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in the northernmost state of Brazil: a likely port-of-entry for dengue virus 4

Roraima is the northernmost state of Brazil, bordering both Venezuela and Guyana. Appropriate climate and vector conditions for dengue transmission together with its proximity to countries where all four dengue serotypes circulate make this state, particularly the capital Boa Vista, strategically important for dengue surveillance in Brazil. Nonetheless, few studies have addressed the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti in Boa Vista. In this study, we report temporal and spatial variations in Ae. aegypti population density using ovitraps in two highly populated neighbourhoods; Centro and Tancredo Neves. In three out of six surveys, Ae. aegypti was present in more than 80% of the sites visited. High presence levels of this mosquito suggest ubiquitous human exposure to the vector, at least during part of the year. The highest infestation rates occurred during the peak of the rainy seasons, but a large presence was also observed during the early dry season (although with more variation among years). Spatial distribution of positive houses changed from a sparse and local pattern to a very dense pattern during the dry-wet season transition. These results suggest that the risk of dengue transmission and the potential for the new serotype invasions are high for most of the year.

Strong reciprocity or strong ferocity? A population genetic view of the evolution of altruistic punishment.

Strong reciprocity, defined as a predisposition to help others and to punish those that are not helping, has been proposed as a potent force leading to the evolution of cooperation and altruism. However, the conditions under which strong reciprocity might be favored are not clear. Here we investigate the selective pressure on strong reciprocity by letting both limited dispersal (i.e., spatial structure) and recombination between helping and punishment jointly determine the evolutionary dynamics of strong reciprocity. Our analytical model suggests that when helping and punishment are perfectly linked traits (no recombination occurring between them), strong reciprocity can spread even when the initial frequency of strong reciprocators is close to 0 in the population (i.e., a rare mutant can invade). By contrast, our results indicate that when recombination can occur between helping and punishment (i.e., both traits coevolve) and is stronger than selection, punishment is likely to invade a population of defectors only when it gives a direct fitness benefit to the actor. Overall, our results delineate the conditions under which strong reciprocity is selected for in a spatially structured population and highlight that the forces behind its evolution involves kinship (be it genetic or cultural).