Some past decision theory models for euro construction model codes and for road drainage in Spain, and modest hints with multi-criteria methods for agro and environmental assurance

The authors are from UPM and are relatively grouped, and all have intervened in different academic or real cases on the subject, at different times as being of different age. With precedent from E. Torroja and A. Páez in Madrid Spain Safety Probabilistic models for concrete about 1957, now in ICOSSAR conferences, author J.M. Antón involved since autumn 1967 for euro-steel construction in CECM produced a math model for independent load superposition reductions, and using it a load coefficient pattern for codes in Rome Feb. 1969, practically adopted for European constructions, giving in JCSS Lisbon Feb. 1974 suggestion of union for concrete-steel-al.. That model uses model for loads like Gumbel type I, for 50 years for one type of load, reduced to 1 year to be added to other independent loads, the sum set in Gumbel theories to 50 years return period, there are parallel models. A complete reliability system was produced, including non linear effects as from buckling, phenomena considered somehow in actual Construction Eurocodes produced from Model Codes. The system was considered by author in CEB in presence of Hydraulic effects from rivers, floods, sea, in reference with actual practice. When redacting a Road Drainage Norm in MOPU Spain an optimization model was realized by authors giving a way to determine the figure of Return Period, 10 to 50 years, for the cases of hydraulic flows to be considered in road drainage. Satisfactory examples were a stream in SE of Spain with Gumbel Type I model and a paper of Ven Te Chow with Mississippi in Keokuk using Gumbel type II, and the model can be modernized with more varied extreme laws. In fact in the MOPU drainage norm the redacting commission acted also as expert to set a table of return periods for elements of road drainage, in fact as a multi-criteria complex decision system. These precedent ideas were used e.g. in wide Codes, indicated in symposia or meetings, but not published in journals in English, and a condensate of contributions of authors is presented. The authors are somehow involved in optimization for hydraulic and agro planning, and give modest hints of intended applications in presence of agro and environment planning as a selection of the criteria and utility functions involved in bayesian, multi-criteria or mixed decision systems. Modest consideration is made of changing in climate, and on the production and commercial systems, and on others as social and financial.

Reduced order modeling of some fluid flows of industrial interest

Some basic ideas are presented for the construction of robust, computationally efficient reduced order models amenable to be used in industrial environments, combined with somewhat rough computational fluid dynamics solvers. These ideas result from a critical review of the basic principles of proper orthogonal decomposition-based reduced order modeling of both steady and unsteady fluid flows. In particular, the extent to which some artifacts of the computational fluid dynamics solvers can be ignored is addressed, which opens up the possibility of obtaining quite flexible reduced order models. The methods are illustrated with the steady aerodynamic flow around a horizontal tail plane of a commercial aircraft in transonic conditions, and the unsteady lid-driven cavity problem. In both cases, the approximations are fairly good, thus reducing the computational cost by a significant factor.

Reduced order modeling of three dimensional external aerodynamic flows

A method is presented to construct computationally efficient reduced-order models (ROMs) of three-dimensional aerodynamic flows around commercial aircraft components. The method is based on the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) of a set of steady snapshots, which are calculated using an industrial solver based on some Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations. The POD-mode amplitudes are calculated by minimizing a residual defined from the Euler equations, even though the snapshots themselves are calculated from viscous equations. This makes the ROM independent of the peculiarities of the solver used to calculate the snapshots. Also, both the POD modes and the residual are calculated using points in the computational mesh that are concentrated in a close vicinity of the aircraft, which constitute a much smaller number than the total number of mesh points. Despite these simplifications, the method provides quite good approximations of the flow variables distributions in the whole computational domain, including the boundary layer attached to the aircraft surface and the wake. Thus, the method is both robust and computationally efficient, which is checked considering the aerodynamic flow around a horizontal tail plane, in the transonic range 0.4?Mach number?0.8, ?3°?angle of attack?3°.

Automatic segmentation of abdominal aortic aneurysm from medical images based on active shape models and texture models

A semi-automatic segmentation algorithm for abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA), and based on Active Shape Models (ASM) and texture models, is presented in this work. The texture information is provided by a set of four 3D magnetic resonance (MR) images, composed of axial slices of the abdomen, where lumen, wall and intraluminal thrombus (ILT) are visible. Due to the reduced number of images in the MRI training set, an ASM and a custom texture model based on border intensity statistics are constructed. For the same reason the shape is characterized from 35-computed tomography angiography (CTA) images set so the shape variations are better represented. For the evaluation, leave-one-out experiments have been held over the four MRI set.

Impact of automatic meetering infrastructure on multiutility business models

In the last decade energy utility sector has undergone major changes in terms of liberalization, increased competition, efforts in improving energy efficiency, and in new technological solution such as smart meter and grid operations. There are new information technology solutions (e.g. Advanced Metering Infrastructure /AMI ) on the horizon that will not only introduce new technical and organizational concepts, but have a very strong potential to radically change modus operandi of utility companies. Coordinated, multi-utility programs can help accelerate the development and market success of new high-efficiency technologies. These programs provide opportunities for researchers to develop new high-efficiency equipment for manufacturers to sell this new equipment with utility help, for utilities to increase the amount of energy they save from incentive programs, and for consumers to benefit from lower utility bills and a cleaner environment (as energy is reduced, pollutants produced at power plants decline).

Human single-chain Fv intrabodies counteract in situ huntingtin aggregation in cellular models of Huntington's disease

This investigation was pursued to test the use of intracellular antibodies (intrabodies) as a means of blocking the pathogenesis of Huntington's disease (HD). HD is characterized by abnormally elongated polyglutamine near the N terminus of the huntingtin protein, which induces pathological protein–protein interactions and aggregate formation by huntingtin or its exon 1-containing fragments. Selection from a large human phage display library yielded a single-chain Fv (sFv) antibody specific for the 17 N-terminal residues of huntingtin, adjacent to the polyglutamine in HD exon 1. This anti-huntingtin sFv intrabody was tested in a cellular model of the disease in which huntingtin exon 1 had been fused to green fluorescent protein (GFP). Expression of expanded repeat HD-polyQ-GFP in transfected cells shows perinuclear aggregation similar to human HD pathology, which worsens with increasing polyglutamine length; the number of aggregates in these transfected cells provided a quantifiable model of HD for this study. Coexpression of anti-huntingtin sFv intrabodies with the abnormal huntingtin-GFP fusion protein dramatically reduced the number of aggregates, compared with controls lacking the intrabody. Anti-huntingtin sFv fused with a nuclear localization signal retargeted huntingtin analogues to cell nuclei, providing further evidence of the anti-huntingtin sFv specificity and of its capacity to redirect the subcellular localization of exon 1. This study suggests that intrabody-mediated modulation of abnormal neuronal proteins may contribute to the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases such as HD, Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, prion disease, and the spinocerebellar ataxias.

Erythropoietin induces tumor regression and antitumor immune responses in murine myeloma models

Recombinant human erythropoietin (rHuEpo) has been used successfully in the treatment of cancer-related anemia. Clinical observations with several patients with multiple-myeloma treated with rHuEpo has shown, in addition to the improved quality of life, a longer survival than expected, considering the poor prognostic features of these patients. Based on these observations, we evaluated the potential biological effects of rHuEpo on the course of tumor progression by using murine myeloma models (MOPC-315-IgAλ2 and 5T33 MM-IgG2b). Here we report that daily treatment of MOPC-315 tumor-bearing mice with rHuEpo for several weeks induced complete tumor regression in 30–60% of mice. All regressors that were rechallenged with tumor cells rejected tumor growth, and this resistance was tumor specific. The Epo-triggered therapeutic effect was shown to be attributed to a T cell-mediated mechanism. Serum Ig analysis indicated a reduction in MOPC-315 λ light chain in regressor mice. Intradermal inoculation of 5T33 MM tumor cells followed by Epo treatment induced tumor regression in 60% of mice. The common clinical manifestation of myeloma bone disease in patients with multiple-myeloma was established in these myeloma models. Epo administration to these tumor-bearing mice markedly prolonged their survival and reduced mortality. Therefore, erythropoietin seems to act as an antitumor therapeutic agent in addition to its red blood cell-stimulating activity.

Neutralizing monoclonal antibodies to hepatocyte growth factor/scatter factor (HGF/SF) display antitumor activity in animal models

The hepatocyte growth factor (HGF/SF) receptor, Met, regulates mitogenesis, motility, and morphogenesis in a cell type-dependent fashion. Activation of Met via autocrine, paracrine, or mutational mechanisms can lead to tumorigenesis and metastasis and numerous studies have linked inappropriate expression of this ligand-receptor pair to most types of human solid tumors. To prepare mAbs to human HGF/SF, mice were immunized with native and denatured preparations of the ligand. Recloned mAbs were tested in vitro for blocking activity against scattering and branching morphogenesis. Our results show that no single mAb was capable of neutralizing the in vitro activity of HGF/SF, and that the ligand possesses a minimum of three epitopes that must be blocked to prevent Met tyrosine kinase activation. In vivo, the neutralizing mAb combination inhibited s.c. growth in athymic nu/nu mice of tumors dependent on an autocrine Met-HGF/SF loop. Importantly, growth of human glioblastoma multiforme xenografts expressing Met and HGF/SF were markedly reduced in the presence of HGF/SF-neutralizing mAbs. These results suggest interrupting autocrine and/or paracrine Met-HGF/SF signaling in tumors dependent on this pathway is a possible intervention strategy.

Regulation of Ribulose-1,5-Bisphosphate Carboxylase/Oxygenase by Carbamylation and 2-Carboxyarabinitol 1-Phosphate in Tobacco: Insights from Studies of Antisense Plants Containing Reduced Amounts of Rubisco Activase1

The regulation of ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (Rubisco) activity by 2-carboxyarabinitol 1-phosphate (CA1P) was investigated using gas-exchange analysis of antisense tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum) plants containing reduced levels of Rubisco activase. When an increase in light flux from darkness to 1200 μmol quanta m−2 s−1 was followed, the slow increase in CO2 assimilation by antisense leaves contained two phases: one represented the activation of the noncarbamylated form of Rubisco, which was described previously, and the other represented the activation of the CA1P-inhibited form of Rubisco. We present evidence supporting this conclusion, including the observation that this second phase, like CA1P, is only present following darkness or very low light flux. In addition, the second phase of CO2 assimilation was correlated with leaf CA1P content. When this novel phase was resolved from the CO2 assimilation trace, most of it was found to have kinetics similar to the activation of the noncarbamylated form of Rubisco. Additionally, kinetics of the novel phase indicated that the activation of the CA1P-inhibited form of Rubisco proceeds faster than the degradation of CA1P by CA1P phosphatase. These results may be significant with respect to current models of the regulation of Rubisco activity by Rubisco activase.

VAR models and methods for monetary and health economics

Negli ultimi anni i modelli VAR sono diventati il principale strumento econometrico per verificare se può esistere una relazione tra le variabili e per valutare gli effetti delle politiche economiche. Questa tesi studia tre diversi approcci di identificazione a partire dai modelli VAR in forma ridotta (tra cui periodo di campionamento, set di variabili endogene, termini deterministici). Usiamo nel caso di modelli VAR il test di Causalità di Granger per verificare la capacità di una variabile di prevedere un altra, nel caso di cointegrazione usiamo modelli VECM per stimare congiuntamente i coefficienti di lungo periodo ed i coefficienti di breve periodo e nel caso di piccoli set di dati e problemi di overfitting usiamo modelli VAR bayesiani con funzioni di risposta di impulso e decomposizione della varianza, per analizzare l'effetto degli shock sulle variabili macroeconomiche. A tale scopo, gli studi empirici sono effettuati utilizzando serie storiche di dati specifici e formulando diverse ipotesi. Sono stati utilizzati tre modelli VAR: in primis per studiare le decisioni di politica monetaria e discriminare tra le varie teorie post-keynesiane sulla politica monetaria ed in particolare sulla cosiddetta "regola di solvibilità" (Brancaccio e Fontana 2013, 2015) e regola del GDP nominale in Area Euro (paper 1); secondo per estendere l'evidenza dell'ipotesi di endogeneità della moneta valutando gli effetti della cartolarizzazione delle banche sul meccanismo di trasmissione della politica monetaria negli Stati Uniti (paper 2); terzo per valutare gli effetti dell'invecchiamento sulla spesa sanitaria in Italia in termini di implicazioni di politiche economiche (paper 3). La tesi è introdotta dal capitolo 1 in cui si delinea il contesto, la motivazione e lo scopo di questa ricerca, mentre la struttura e la sintesi, così come i principali risultati, sono descritti nei rimanenti capitoli. Nel capitolo 2 sono esaminati, utilizzando un modello VAR in differenze prime con dati trimestrali della zona Euro, se le decisioni in materia di politica monetaria possono essere interpretate in termini di una "regola di politica monetaria", con specifico riferimento alla cosiddetta "nominal GDP targeting rule" (McCallum 1988 Hall e Mankiw 1994; Woodford 2012). I risultati evidenziano una relazione causale che va dallo scostamento tra i tassi di crescita del PIL nominale e PIL obiettivo alle variazioni dei tassi di interesse di mercato a tre mesi. La stessa analisi non sembra confermare l'esistenza di una relazione causale significativa inversa dalla variazione del tasso di interesse di mercato allo scostamento tra i tassi di crescita del PIL nominale e PIL obiettivo. Risultati simili sono stati ottenuti sostituendo il tasso di interesse di mercato con il tasso di interesse di rifinanziamento della BCE. Questa conferma di una sola delle due direzioni di causalità non supporta un'interpretazione della politica monetaria basata sulla nominal GDP targeting rule e dà adito a dubbi in termini più generali per l'applicabilità della regola di Taylor e tutte le regole convenzionali della politica monetaria per il caso in questione. I risultati appaiono invece essere più in linea con altri approcci possibili, come quelli basati su alcune analisi post-keynesiane e marxiste della teoria monetaria e più in particolare la cosiddetta "regola di solvibilità" (Brancaccio e Fontana 2013, 2015). Queste linee di ricerca contestano la tesi semplicistica che l'ambito della politica monetaria consiste nella stabilizzazione dell'inflazione, del PIL reale o del reddito nominale intorno ad un livello "naturale equilibrio". Piuttosto, essi suggeriscono che le banche centrali in realtà seguono uno scopo più complesso, che è il regolamento del sistema finanziario, con particolare riferimento ai rapporti tra creditori e debitori e la relativa solvibilità delle unità economiche. Il capitolo 3 analizza l’offerta di prestiti considerando l’endogeneità della moneta derivante dall'attività di cartolarizzazione delle banche nel corso del periodo 1999-2012. Anche se gran parte della letteratura indaga sulla endogenità dell'offerta di moneta, questo approccio è stato adottato raramente per indagare la endogeneità della moneta nel breve e lungo termine con uno studio degli Stati Uniti durante le due crisi principali: scoppio della bolla dot-com (1998-1999) e la crisi dei mutui sub-prime (2008-2009). In particolare, si considerano gli effetti dell'innovazione finanziaria sul canale dei prestiti utilizzando la serie dei prestiti aggiustata per la cartolarizzazione al fine di verificare se il sistema bancario americano è stimolato a ricercare fonti più economiche di finanziamento come la cartolarizzazione, in caso di politica monetaria restrittiva (Altunbas et al., 2009). L'analisi si basa sull'aggregato monetario M1 ed M2. Utilizzando modelli VECM, esaminiamo una relazione di lungo periodo tra le variabili in livello e valutiamo gli effetti dell’offerta di moneta analizzando quanto la politica monetaria influisce sulle deviazioni di breve periodo dalla relazione di lungo periodo. I risultati mostrano che la cartolarizzazione influenza l'impatto dei prestiti su M1 ed M2. Ciò implica che l'offerta di moneta è endogena confermando l'approccio strutturalista ed evidenziando che gli agenti economici sono motivati ad aumentare la cartolarizzazione per una preventiva copertura contro shock di politica monetaria. Il capitolo 4 indaga il rapporto tra spesa pro capite sanitaria, PIL pro capite, indice di vecchiaia ed aspettativa di vita in Italia nel periodo 1990-2013, utilizzando i modelli VAR bayesiani e dati annuali estratti dalla banca dati OCSE ed Eurostat. Le funzioni di risposta d'impulso e la scomposizione della varianza evidenziano una relazione positiva: dal PIL pro capite alla spesa pro capite sanitaria, dalla speranza di vita alla spesa sanitaria, e dall'indice di invecchiamento alla spesa pro capite sanitaria. L'impatto dell'invecchiamento sulla spesa sanitaria è più significativo rispetto alle altre variabili. Nel complesso, i nostri risultati suggeriscono che le disabilità strettamente connesse all'invecchiamento possono essere il driver principale della spesa sanitaria nel breve-medio periodo. Una buona gestione della sanità contribuisce a migliorare il benessere del paziente, senza aumentare la spesa sanitaria totale. Tuttavia, le politiche che migliorano lo stato di salute delle persone anziane potrebbe essere necessarie per una più bassa domanda pro capite dei servizi sanitari e sociali.

Generalized isotropic Lipkin-Meshkov-Glick models: ground state entanglement and quantum entropies

We introduce a new class of generalized isotropic Lipkin–Meshkov–Glick models with su(m+1) spin and long-range non-constant interactions, whose non-degenerate ground state is a Dicke state of su(m+1) type. We evaluate in closed form the reduced density matrix of a block of Lspins when the whole system is in its ground state, and study the corresponding von Neumann and Rényi entanglement entropies in the thermodynamic limit. We show that both of these entropies scale as a log L when L tends to infinity, where the coefficient a is equal to (m  −  k)/2 in the ground state phase with k vanishing magnon densities. In particular, our results show that none of these generalized Lipkin–Meshkov–Glick models are critical, since when L-->∞ their Rényi entropy R_q becomes independent of the parameter q. We have also computed the Tsallis entanglement entropy of the ground state of these generalized su(m+1) Lipkin–Meshkov–Glick models, finding that it can be made extensive by an appropriate choice of its parameter only when m-k≥3. Finally, in the su(3) case we construct in detail the phase diagram of the ground state in parameter space, showing that it is determined in a simple way by the weights of the fundamental representation of su(3). This is also true in the su(m+1) case; for instance, we prove that the region for which all the magnon densities are non-vanishing is an (m  +  1)-simplex in R^m whose vertices are the weights of the fundamental representation of su(m+1).

Models and methods for the direct simulation of rough and micropatterned surfaces

Friction in hydrodynamic bearings are a major source of losses in car engines ([69]). The extreme loading conditions in those bearings lead to contact between the matching surfaces. In such conditions not only the overall geometry of the bearing is relevant, but also the small-scale topography of the surface determines the bearing performance. The possibility of shaping the surface of lubricated bearings down to the micrometer ([57]) opened the question of whether friction can be reduced by mean of micro-textures, with mixed results. This work focuses in the development of efficient numerical methods to solve thin film (lubrication) problems down to the roughness scale of measured surfaces. Due to the high velocities and the convergent-divergent geometries of hydrodynamic bearings, cavitation takes place. To treat cavitation in the lubrication problem the Elrod- Adams model is used, a mass-conserving model which has proven in careful numerical ([12]) and experimental ([119]) tests to be essential to obtain physically meaningful results. Another relevant aspect of the modeling is that the bearing inertial effects are considered, which is necessary to correctly simulate moving textures. As an application, the effects of micro-texturing the moving surface of the bearing were studied. Realistic values are assumed for the physical parameters defining the problems. Extensive fundamental studies were carried out in the hydrodynamic lubrication regime. Mesh-converged simulations considering the topography of real measured surfaces were also run, and the validity of the lubrication approximation was assessed for such rough surfaces.

Surface velocity fields, digital elevation models and ice front positions derived from multi-mission SAR remote sensing data at Sjögren Inlet glaciers, Antarctic Peninsula

Substantial retreat or disintegration of numerous ice shelves have been observed on the Antarctic Peninsula. The ice shelf in the Prince Gustav Channel retreated gradually since the late 1980's and broke-up in 1995. Tributary glaciers reacted with speed-up, surface lowering and increased ice discharge, consequently contributing to sea level rise. We present a detailed long-term study (1993-2014) on the dynamic response of Sjögren Inlet glaciers to the disintegration of Prince Gustav Ice Shelf. We analyzed various remote sensing datasets to observe the reactions of the glaciers to the loss of the buttressing ice shelf. A strong increase in ice surface velocities was observed with maximum flow speeds reaching 2.82±0.48 m/d in 2007 and 1.50±0.32 m/d in 2004 at Sjögren and Boydell glaciers respectively. Subsequently, the flow velocities decelerated, however in late 2014, we still measured about two times the values of our first measurements in 1996. The tributary glaciers retreated 61.7±3.1 km² behind the former grounding line of the ice shelf. In regions below 1000 m a.s.l., a mean surface lowering of -68±10 m (-3.1 m/a) was observed in the period 1993-2014. The lowering rate decreased to -2.2 m/a in recent years. Based on the surface lowering rates, geodetic mass balances of the glaciers were derived for different time steps. High mass loss rate of -1.21±0.36 Gt/a was found in the earliest period (1993-2001). Due to the dynamic adjustments of the glaciers to the new boundary conditions the ice mass loss reduced to -0.59±0.11 Gt/a in the period 2012-2014, resulting in an average mass loss rate of -0.89±0.16 Gt/a (1993-2014). Including the retreat of the ice front and grounding line, a total mass change of -38.5±7.7 Gt and a contribution to sea level rise of 0.061±0.013 mm were computed. Analysis of the ice flux revealed that available bedrock elevation estimates at Sjögren Inlet are too shallow and are the major uncertainty in ice flux computations. This temporally dense time series analysis of Sjögren Inlet glaciers shows that the adjustments of tributary glaciers to ice shelf disintegration are still going on and provides detailed information of the changes in glacier dynamics.

Organic carbon, reduced sulfur, and iron in Miocene to Holocene sediments from the Oman and Beguela upwelling systems

We examined sediments from Neogene and Quaternary sections of the Benguela and Oman upwelling systems (DSDP Site 532, ODP Sites 723 and 722) to determine environmental and geochemical factors which control and limit pyrite formation in organic-carbon-rich marine sediments. Those samples from the upwelling sites, which contained low to moderate concentrations of total organic carbon (0.7%-3%), had C/S ratios typical of normal marine sediments, i.e., around 2.8. In these sediments, TOC availability probably limited pyrite formation. Results that do not conform with accepted models were found for the sediments high in TOC (3^0-12.4%). The organic matter was of marine origin and contained considerable pyrolytic hydrocarbons, a fact that we take as a sign of low degradation, yet significant concentrations of dissolved sulfate coexisted with it (> 5 mmol/L in the case of Sites 532 and 723). Detrital iron was probably not limiting in either case, because the degree of pyritization was always less than 0.65. Therefore, controls on sulfate reduction and pyrite formation in the organic matter-rich sediments do not appear to conform simply to generally accepted diagenetic models. The data from these thermally immature, old, and organic-rich marine sediments imply that (1) the total reduced sulfur content of organic-rich marine upwelling sediments rarely exceeds an approximate boundary of 1.5% by weight, (2) the C/S ratio of these sediments is not constant and usually much higher than the empirical values proposed for marine sediments. We conclude that sedimentary pyrite formation in upwelling sediments is limited by an as yet unknown factor, and that caution is advised in using C/S ratios and C vs. S diagrams in paleoenvironmental reconstructions for organic-rich sediments.

Constructing and evaluating alternative prediction models for identifying clinically relevant cases in an STD clinic

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06