Potential demand for hedging by Australian wheat producers

The potential for hedging Australian wheat with the new Sydney Futures Exchange wheat contract is examined using a theoretical hedging model parametised from previous studies. The optimal hedging ratio for an 'average' wheat farmer was found to be zero under reasonable assumptions about transaction costs and based on previously published measures of risk aversion. The estimated optimal hedging ratios were found by simulation to be quite sensitive to assumptions about the degree of risk aversion. If farmers are significantly more risk averse than is currently believed, then there is likely to be an active interest in the new futures market.

Cell cycle model to describe animal cell size variation and lag between cell number and biomass dynamics

The use of cell numbers rather than mass to quantify the size of the biotic phase in animal cell cultures causes several problems. First, the cell size varies with growth conditions, thus yields expressed in terms of cell numbers cannot be used in the normal mass balance sense. Second, experience from microbial systems shows that cell number dynamics lag behind biomass dynamics. This work demonstrates that this lag phenomenon also occurs in animal cell culture. Both the lag phenomenon and the variation in cell size are explained using a simple model of the cell cycle. The basis for the model is that onset of DNA synthesis requires accumulation of G1 cyclins to a prescribed level. This requirement is translated into a requirement for a cell to reach a critical size before commencement of DNA synthesis. A slower gl-owing cell will spend more time in G1 before reaching the critical mass. In contrast, the period between onset of DNA synthesis and mitosis, tau(B), is fixed. The two parameters in the model, the critical size and tau(B), were determined from eight steady-state measurements of mean cell size in a continuous hybridoma culture. Using these parameters, it was possible to predict with reasonable accuracy the transient behavior in a separate shift-up culture, i.e., a culture where cells were transferred from a lean environment to a rich environment. The implications for analyzing experimental data for animal cell culture are discussed. (C) 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Validity of self-reported hysterectomy and tubal sterilisation

Both hysterectomy and tubal sterilisation offer significant protection from ovarian cancer, and the risk of cardiovascular disease in women is lowered after hysterectomy. Since little is known about the accuracy of women's self-reports of these procedures, we assessed their reliability and validity using data obtained in a case-control study of ovarian cancer. There was 100 per cent repeatability for both positive and negative histories of hysterectomy and tubal sterilisation among a small sample of women on reinterview. Verification of surgery was sought against surgeons' or medical records, or if these were unavailable, from randomly selected current general practitioners for 51 cases and 155 controls reporting a hysterectomy and 73 cases and 137 controls reporting a tubal sterilisation. Validation rate for self-reported hysterectomy against medical reports (32 cases, 96 controls) was 96 per cent (95 per cent confidence interval (CI) 91 to 99) and for tubal sterilisation (32 cases, 77 controls) it was 88 per cent (CI 81 to 93), which is likely to be an underestimate. Although findings are based on small numbers of women for whom medical reports could be ascertained, they are consistent with other findings that suggest women have good recall of past histories of hysterectomy and tubal sterilisation; this allows long-term effects of these procedures to be studied with reasonable accuracy from self-reports.

Ethical Conflicts over the Management of Transsexual Adolescents-Report of Two Cases

Introduction. The diagnosis and the treatment of transsexualism, particularly during adolescence, generate considerable discussion among specialists. Many health and legal professionals have not yet reached a strong consensus on medical treatment for juvenile transsexuals. Hormonal therapy cannot only represent a medical procedure to adjust the somatic sex to the psychological gender, but can also be a reasonable means of preventing some juvenile transsexuals from engaging in undesirable and risky behavior. Aim. To report the cases of two transsexual adolescents who resorted to prostitution to afford hormonal medications when treatment was denied because of age criteria. Results. Hormonal medications were not recommended by the endocrinology staff because specific laws regulating this medical procedure for juvenile transsexuals in Brazil are lacking. In response, these adolescents chose to use illegally obtained sex hormones to treat themselves. Conclusions. We propose ""harm reduction"" as a means of coping with this dilemma in some cases. Baltieri DA, Cortez FCP, and de Andrade AG. Ethical conflicts over the management of transsexual adolescents-report of two cases. J Sex Med 2009;6:3214-3220.

Neurodynamics of an election

Variables influencing decision-making in real settings, as in the case of voting decisions, are uncontrollable and in many times even unknown to the experimenter. In this case, the experimenter has to study the intention to decide (vote) as close as possible in time to the moment of the real decision (election day). Here, we investigated the brain activity associated with the voting intention declared 1 week before the election day of the Brazilian Firearms Control Referendum about prohibiting the commerce of firearms. Two alliances arose in the Congress to run the campaigns for YES (for the prohibition of firearm commerce) and NO (against the prohibition of firearm commerce) voting. Time constraints imposed by the necessity of studying a reasonable number (here, 32) of voters during a very short time (5 days) made the EEG the tool of choice for recording the brain activity associated with voting decision. Recent fMRI and EEG studies have shown decision-making as a process due to the enrollment of defined neuronal networks. In this work, a special EEG technique is applied to study the topology of the voting decision-making networks and is compared to the results of standard ERP procedures. The results show that voting decision-making enrolled networks in charge of calculating the benefits and risks of the decision of prohibiting or allowing firearm commerce and that the topology of such networks was vote-(i.e., YES/NO-) sensitive. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

FOR DEBATE A hypothesis for the 2007 dengue outbreak in Singapore

A previous mathematical model explaining dengue in Singapore predicted a reasonable outbreak of about 6500 cases for 2006 and a very mild outbreak with about 2000 cases for 2007. However, only 3051 cases were reported in 2006 while more than 7800 were reported in the first 44 weeks of 2007. We hypothesized that the combination of haze with other local sources of particulate matter had a significant impact on mosquito life expectancy, significantly increasing their mortality rate. To test the hypothesis a mathematical model based on the reproduction number of dengue fever and aimed at comparing the impact of several possible alternative control strategies was proposed. This model also aimed at contributing to the understanding of the causes of dengue resurgence in Singapore in the last decade. The model`s simulation demonstrated that an increase in mosquito mortality in 2006 and either a reduction in mortality or an increase in the carrying capacity of mosquitoes in 2007 explained the patterned observed in Singapore. Based on the model`s simulation we concluded that the fewer than expected number of dengue cases in Singapore in 2006 was caused by an increase in mosquito mortality due to the disproportionate haze affecting the country that year and that particularly favourable environmental conditions in 2007 propitiated mosquitoes with a lower mortality rate, which explains the greater than expected number of dengue cases in 2007. Whether our hypothesis is plausible or not should be debated further.

In vivo electrochemical characterization and inflammatory response of multiwalled carbon nanotube-based electrodes in rat hippocampus

Stimulating neural electrodes are required to deliver charge to an environment that presents itself as hostile. The electrodes need to maintain their electrical characteristics (charge and impedance) in vivo for a proper functioning of neural prostheses. Here we design implantable multi-walled carbon nanotubes coating for stainless steel substrate electrodes, targeted at wide frequency stimulation of deep brain structures. In well-controlled, low-frequency stimulation acute experiments, we show that multi-walled carbon nanotube electrodes maintain their charge storage capacity (CSC) and impedance in vivo. The difference in average CSCs (n = 4) between the in vivo (1.111 mC cm(-2)) and in vitro (1.008 mC cm(-2)) model was statistically insignificant (p > 0.05 or P-value = 0.715, two tailed). We also report on the transcription levels of the pro-inflammatory cytokine IL-1 beta and TLR2 receptor as an immediate response to low-frequency stimulation using RT-PCR. We show here that the IL-1 beta is part of the inflammatory response to low-frequency stimulation, but TLR2 is not significantly increased in stimulated tissue when compared to controls. The early stages of neuroinflammation due to mechanical and electrical trauma induced by implants can be better understood by detection of pro-inflammatory molecules rather than by histological studies. Tracking of such quantitative response profits from better analysis methods over several temporal and spatial scales. Our results concerning the evaluation of such inflammatory molecules revealed that transcripts for the cytokine IL-1 beta are upregulated in response to low-frequency stimulation, whereas no modulation was observed for TLR2. This result indicates that the early response of the brain to mechanical trauma and low-frequency stimulation activates the IL-1 beta signaling cascade but not that of TLR2.

IL-17 mediates articular hypernociception in antigen-induced arthritis in mice

IL-17 is an important cytokine in the physiopathology of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, its participation in the genesis of nociception during RA remains undetermined. In this study, we evaluated the role of IL-17 in the genesis of articular nociception in a model of antigen (mBSA)-induced arthritis. We found that mBSA challenge in the femur-tibial joint of immunized mice induced a dose-and time-dependent mechanical hypernociception. The local IL-17 concentration within the mBSA-injected joints increased significantly over time. Moreover, co-treatment of mBSA challenged mice with an antibody against IL-17 inhibited hypernociception and neutrophil recruitment. In agreement, intraarticular injection of IL-17 induced hypernociception and neutrophil migration, which were reduced by the pre-treatment with fucoidin, a leukocyte adhesion inhibitor. The hypernociceptive effect of IL-17 was also reduced in TNFR1(-/-) mice and by pre-treatment with infliximab (anti-TNF antibody), a CXCR1/2 antagonist or by an IL-1 receptor antagonist. Consistent with these findings, we found that IL-17 injection into joints increased the production of TNF-alpha, IL-1 beta and CXCL1/KC. Treatment with doxycycline (non-specific MMPs inhibitor), bosentan (ET(A)/ET(B) antagonist), indomethacin (COX inhibitor) or guanethidine (sympathetic blocker) inhibited IL-17-induced hypernociception. IL-17 injection also increased PGE(2) production, MMP-9 activity and COX-2, MMP-9 and PPET-1 mRNA expression in synovial membrane. These results suggest that IL-17 is a novel pro-nociceptive cytokine in mBSA-induced arthritis, whose effect depends on both neutrophil migration and various pro-inflammatory mediators, as TNF-alpha, IL-1 beta, CXCR1/2 chemokines ligands, MMPs, endothelins, prostaglandins and sympathetic amines. Therefore, it is reasonable to propose IL-17 targeting therapies to control this important RA symptom. (C) 2009 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Low-intensity Treadmill Exercise-related Changes in the Rat Stellate Ganglion Neurons

Stellate ganglion (SG) represents the main sympathetic input to the heart. This study aimed at investigating physical exercise-related changes in the quantitative aspects of SG neurons in treadmill-exercised Wistar rats. By applying state-of-the-art design-based stereology, the SG volume, total number of SG neurons, mean perikaryal volume of SG neurons, and the total volume of neurons in the whole SG have been examined. Arterial pressure and heart rate were also measured at the end of the exercise period. The present study showed that a low-intensity exercise training program caused a 12% decrease in the heart rate of trained rats. In contrast, there were no effects on systolic pressure, diastolic pressure, or mean arterial pressure. As to quantitative changes related to physical exercise, the main findings were a 21% increase in the fractional volume occupied by neurons in the SG, and an 83% increase in the mean perikaryal volume of SG neurons in treadmill-trained rats, which shows a remarkable neuron hypertrophy. It seems reasonable to infer that neuron hypertrophy may have been the result of a functional overload imposed on the SG neurons by initial posttraining sympathetic activation. From the novel stereological data we provide, further investigations are needed to shed light on the mechanistic aspect of neuron hypertrophy: what role does neuron hypertrophy play? Could neuron hypertrophy be assigned to the functional overload induced by physical exercise? (C) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Estimation of R(0) from the initial phase of an outbreak of a vector-borne infection

The magnitude of the basic reproduction ratio R(0) of an epidemic can be estimated in several ways, namely, from the final size of the epidemic, from the average age at first infection, or from the initial growth phase of the outbreak. In this paper, we discuss this last method for estimating R(0) for vector-borne infections. Implicit in these models is the assumption that there is an exponential phase of the outbreaks, which implies that in all cases R(0) > 1. We demonstrate that an outbreak is possible, even in cases where R(0) is less than one, provided that the vector-to-human component of R(0) is greater than one and that a certain number of infected vectors are introduced into the affected population. This theory is applied to two real epidemiological dengue situations in the southeastern part of Brazil, one where R(0) is less than one, and other one where R(0) is greater than one. In both cases, the model mirrors the real situations with reasonable accuracy.

Evaluation of short dietary questions from the 1995 National Nutrition Survey

Six of the short dietary questions used in the 1995 National Nutrition Survey (see box below) were evaluated for relative validity both directly and indirectly and for consistency, by documenting the differences in mean intakes of foods and nutrients as measured on the 24-hour recall, between groups with different responses to the short questions. 1. Including snacks, how many times do you usually have something to eat in a day including evenings? 2. How many days per week do you usually have something to eat for breakfast? 3. In the last 12 months, were there any times that you ran out of food and couldn’t afford to buy more? 4. What type of milk do you usually consume? 5. How many serves of vegetables do you usually eat each day? (a serve = 1/2 cup cooked vegetables or 1 cup of salad vegetables) 6. How many serves of fruit do you usually eat each day? (a serve = 1 medium piece or 2 small pieces of fruit or 1 cup of diced pieces) These comparisons were made for males and females overall and for population sub-groups of interest including: age, socio-economic disadvantage, region of residence, country of birth, and BMI category. Several limitations to this evaluation of the short questions, as discussed in the report, need to be kept in mind including: · The method for comparison available (24-hour recall) was not ideal (gold standard); as it measures yesterday’s intake. This limitation was overcome by examining only mean differences between groups of respondents, since mean intake for a group can provide a reasonable approximation for ‘usual’ intake. · The need to define and identify, post-hoc, from the 24-hour recall the number of eating occasions, and occasions identified by the respondents as breakfast. · Predetermined response categories for some of the questions effectively limited the number of categories available for evaluation. · Other foods and nutrients, not selected for this evaluation, may have an indirect relationship with the question, and might have shown stronger and more consistent responses. · The number of responses in some categories of the short questions eg for food security may have been too small to detect significant differences between population sub-groups. · No information was available to examine the validity of these questions for detecting differences over time (establishing trends) in food habits and indicators of selected nutrient intakes. By contrast, the strength of this evaluation was its very large sample size, (atypical of most validation studies of dietary assessment) and thus, the opportunity to investigate question performance in a range of broad population sub-groups compared with a well-conducted, quantified survey of intakes. The results of the evaluation are summarised below for each of the questions and specific recommendations for future testing, modifications and use provided for each question. The report concludes with some general recommendations for the further development and evaluation of short dietary questions.

Crab-eating fox (Cerdocyon thous), a South American canid, as a definitive host for Hammondia heydorni

Hammondia heydorni is a cyst forming coccidia closely related to other apicomplexans, such as Toxoplasma gondii, Neospora caninum and Hammondia hammondi with a two-host life cycle. Dogs and other canids as red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) and coyotes (Canis latrans) may serve as definitive hosts for H. heydorni. Sporulated oocysts are infective for cattle, sheep and goats, which may serve as intermediate hosts. Herein, we describe the ability of crab-eating fox (Cerdocyon thous), a wild carnivore that is commonly found from northern Argentina to northern South America, to serve as definitive host of H. heydorni. The whole masseter muscle and brain from two 2-year-old bovines were collected, minced and pooled together for the fox infection. The bovine pooled tissues were equally administered to four foxes, in two consecutive days. Two foxes shed subspherical unsporulated oocysts measuring 10-15 mu m, after 8 and 9 days post-infection, respectively. One of the foxes eliminated oocysts for 5 days, while the other fox shed oocysts for 9 days. A DNA sample of oocysts detected at each day of oocyst elimination was tested by two PCRs, one of them carried out employing primers directed to the common toxoplasmatiid 18S and 5.8S ribosomal RNA coding genes (PCR-ITS1) and the other based on heat-shock protein 70 kDa coding gene (PCR-HSP70). These samples were also submitted to a N. caninum specific nested-PCR protocol based on a N. caninum specific gene (Nc5-nPCR). All of them were positive by PCR-ITS1 and PCR-HSP70 but negative by Nc5-nPCR. The PCR-ITS1 and PCR-HSP70 nucleotide sequences amplified from the oocysts shed by the foxes revealed 100% identity with homologous sequences of H. heydorni. In conclusion, it is clear that H. heydorni also uses the crab-eating fox as a definitive host. The crab-eating fox is usually reported to live in close contact with livestock in several regions of Brazil. Therefore, it is reasonable to infer that such carnivores may play an important role in the sylvatic and domestic cycles of H. heydorni infection. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The success of endosseous implants in human immunodeficiency virus-positive patients receiving antiretroviral therapy A pilot study

Background. In a pilot study, the authors aimed to determine the success rate of dental implants placed in patients who were positive for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and were receiving different regimens of highly active anti-retroviral therapy (HAART). They considered patients` levels of cluster of differentiation (CD) 4(+) cells and viral load, and they attempted to verify whether patients with baseline biochemical signs of bone mineral density loss could experience osseointegration impairment. Materials and Methods. One of the authors, a dentist, placed dental implants in the posterior mandibles of 40 volunteers, divided into three groups: one composed of HIV-positive patients receiving protease inhibitor (PI)-based HAART; a second composed of HIV-positive patients receiving nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor based HAART (without PI); and a control group composed of HIV-negative participants. The authors assessed pen-implant health six and 12 months after implant loading. They analyzed the success of the implants in relation to CD4(+) cell counts, viral load and baseline pyridinoline and deoxypyridinoline values. Results. The authors followed 59 implants for 12 months after loading. Higher baseline levels of pyridinoline and deoxypyridinoline found in HIV-positive participants did not interfere with osseointegration after 12 months of follow-up. Average pen-implant bone loss after 12 months was 0.49 millimeters in group 1, 0.47 mm in group 2, and 0.55 mm in the control group. Conclusions. The placement of dental implants in HIV-positive patients is a reasonable treatment option, regardless of CD4(+) cell count, viral load levels and type of antiretroviral therapy. Longer, follow-up periods are necessary to ascertain the predictability of the long-term success of dental implants in these patients. Clinical Implications. Limited published scientific evidence is available to guide clinicians in regard to possible increased risks associated with dental implant placement in HIV-positive patients.

Characterization of CD4(+)CD25(+) natural regulatory T cells in the inflammatory infiltrate of human chronic periodontitis

Periodontitis is an infectious disease, where putative periodontopathogens trigger chronic inflammatory and immune responses against periodontal structures, in which an unbalanced host response is also determinant to the disease outcome. It is reasonable to assume that patient susceptibility to periodontal tissue destruction could be determined by the balance between the response against periodontopathogens and regulatory mechanisms of these events mediated by suppressive T cells. In the present study, we identified and characterized natural regulatory T cells ( Tregs) in the inflammatory infiltrate of human chronic periodontitis ( CP) with emphasis on phenotypic analyses that were carried out to address the participation of Tregs in CP. Results showed that patients with CP presented increased frequency of T lymphocytes and CD4(+)CD25(+) T cells in the inflammatory infiltrate of gingival tissues. These cells exhibited the phenotypic markers of Tregs such as forkhead box p3 ( Foxp3), CTLA- 4, glucocorticoidinducible TNFR, CD103, and CD45RO and seemed to be attracted to the inflammation site by the chemokines CCL17 and CCL22, as their expression and its receptor CCR4 were increased in CP patients. Moreover, besides the increased detection of Foxp3 mRNA, diseased tissues presented high expression of the regulatory cytokines IL-10 and TGF-beta. In addition, the inflammatory infiltrate in CP biopsies was composed of CD25(+)Foxp3(+) and CD25(+)TGF-beta(+) cells, thus corroborating the hypothesis of the involvement of Tregs in the pathogenesis of CP. Finally, these results indicate that Tregs are found in the chronic lesions and must be involved in the modulation of local immune response in CP patients.

Quasi-stationarity in populations that are subject to large-scale mortality or emigration

We shall examine a model, first studied by Brockwell et al. [Adv Appl Probab 14 (1982) 709.], which can be used to describe the longterm behaviour of populations that are subject to catastrophic mortality or emigration events. Populations can suffer dramatic declines when disease, such as an introduced virus, affects the population, or when food shortages occur, due to overgrazing or fluctuations in rainfall. However, perhaps surprisingly, such populations can survive for long periods and, although they may eventually become extinct, they can exhibit an apparently stationary regime. It is useful to be able to model this behaviour. This is particularly true of the ecological examples that motivated the present study, since, in order to properly manage these populations, it is necessary to be able to predict persistence times and to estimate the conditional probability distribution of population size. We shall see that although our model predicts eventual extinction, the time till extinction can be long and the stationary exhibited by these populations over any reasonable time scale can be explained using a quasistationary distribution. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.