A hybrid probabilistic criterion for market-based transmission expansion planning

Market-based transmission expansion planning gives information to investors on where is the most cost efficient place to invest and brings benefits to those who invest in this grid. However, both market issue and power system adequacy problems are system planers’ concern. In this paper, a hybrid probabilistic criterion of Expected Economical Loss (EEL) is proposed as an index to evaluate the systems’ overall expected economical losses during system operation in a competitive market. It stands on both investors’ and planner’s point of view and will further improves the traditional reliability cost. By applying EEL, it is possible for system planners to obtain a clear idea regarding the transmission network’s bottleneck and the amount of losses arises from this weak point. Sequentially, it enables planners to assess the worth of providing reliable services. Also, the EEL will contain valuable information for moneymen to undertake their investment. This index could truly reflect the random behaviors of power systems and uncertainties from electricity market. The performance of the EEL index is enhanced by applying Normalized Coefficient of Probability (NCP), so it can be utilized in large real power systems. A numerical example is carried out on IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS), which will show how the EEL can predict the current system bottleneck under future operational conditions and how to use EEL as one of planning objectives to determine future optimal plans. A well-known simulation method, Monte Carlo simulation, is employed to achieve the probabilistic characteristic of electricity market and Genetic Algorithms (GAs) is used as a multi-objective optimization tool.

Optical study of a light diaphragm rupture process in an expansion tube

Rupture of a light cellophane diaphragm in an expansion tube has been studied by an optical method. The influence of the light diaphragm on test flow generation has long been recognised, however the diaphragm rupture mechanism is less well known. It has been previously postulated that the diaphragm ruptures around its periphery due to the dynamic pressure loading of the shock wave, with the diaphragm material at some stage being removed from the flow to allow the shock to accelerate to the measured speeds downstream. The images obtained in this series of experiments are the first to show the mechanism of diaphragm rupture and mass removal in an expansion tube. A light diaphragm was impulsively loaded via a shock wave and a series of images was recorded holographically throughout the rupture process, showing gradual destruction of the diaphragm. Features such as the diaphragm material, the interface between gases, and a reflected shock were clearly visualised. Both qualitative and quantitative aspects of the rupture dynamics were derived from the images and compared with existing one-dimensional theory.

Improving wheat simulation capabilities in Australia from a cropping systems perspective - III. The integrated wheat model (I_WHEAT)

Previous work has identified several short-comings in the ability of four spring wheat and one barley model to simulate crop processes and resource utilization. This can have important implications when such models are used within systems models where final soil water and nitrogen conditions of one crop define the starting conditions of the following crop. In an attempt to overcome these limitations and to reconcile a range of modelling approaches, existing model components that worked demonstrably well were combined with new components for aspects where existing capabilities were inadequate. This resulted in the Integrated Wheat Model (I_WHEAT), which was developed as a module of the cropping systems model APSIM. To increase predictive capability of the model, process detail was reduced, where possible, by replacing groups of processes with conservative, biologically meaningful parameters. I_WHEAT does not contain a soil water or soil nitrogen balance. These are present as other modules of APSIM. In I_WHEAT, yield is simulated using a linear increase in harvest index whereby nitrogen or water limitations can lead to early termination of grainfilling and hence cessation of harvest index increase. Dry matter increase is calculated either from the amount of intercepted radiation and radiation conversion efficiency or from the amount of water transpired and transpiration efficiency, depending on the most limiting resource. Leaf area and tiller formation are calculated from thermal time and a cultivar specific phyllochron interval. Nitrogen limitation first reduces leaf area and then affects radiation conversion efficiency as it becomes more severe. Water or nitrogen limitations result in reduced leaf expansion, accelerated leaf senescence or tiller death. This reduces the radiation load on the crop canopy (i.e. demand for water) and can make nitrogen available for translocation to other organs. Sensitive feedbacks between light interception and dry matter accumulation are avoided by having environmental effects acting directly on leaf area development, rather than via biomass production. This makes the model more stable across environments without losing the interactions between the different external influences. When comparing model output with models tested previously using data from a wide range of agro-climatic conditions, yield and biomass predictions were equal to the best of those models, but improvements could be demonstrated for simulating leaf area dynamics in response to water and nitrogen supply, kernel nitrogen content, and total water and nitrogen use. I_WHEAT does not require calibration for any of the environments tested. Further model improvement should concentrate on improving phenology simulations, a more thorough derivation of coefficients to describe leaf area development and a better quantification of some processes related to nitrogen dynamics. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

FRA10B structure reveals common elements in repeat expansion and chromosomal fragile site genesis

A common mechanism for chromosomal fragile site genesis is not yet apparent. Folate-sensitive fragile sites are expanded p(CCG)n repeats that arise from longer normal alleles. Distamycin A or bromodeoxyuridine-inducible fragile site FRA16B is an expanded AT-rich similar to 33 bp repeat; however, the relationship between normal and fragile site alleles is not known. Here, we report that bromodeoxyuridine-inducible, distamycin A-insensitive fragile site FRA10B is composed of expanded similar to 42 bp repeats. Differences in repeat motif length or composition between different FRA10B families indicate multiple independent expansion events. Some FRA10B alleles comprise a mixture of different expanded repeat motifs. FRA10B fragile site and long normal alleles share flanking polymorphisms. Somatic and intergenerational FRA10B repeat instability analogous to that found in expanded trinucleotide repeats supports dynamic mutation as a common mechanism for repeat expansion.

Off-diagonal long-range order in a supersymmetric integrable model of correlated electrons

A new model for correlated electrons is presented which is integrable in one-dimension. The symmetry algebra of the model is the Lie superalgebra gl(2\1) which depends on a continuous free parameter. This symmetry algebra contains the eta pairing algebra as a subalgebra which is used to show that the model exhibits Off-Diagonal Long-Range Order in any number of dimensions.

In vitro human epidermal and polyethylene membrane penetration and retention of the sunscreen benzophenone-3 from a range of solvents

Purpose. To study epidermal and polyethylene membrane penetration and retention of the sunscreen benzophenone-3 (BP) from a range of single solvent vehicles and evaluate solvent effects on permeability parameters. Methods. The solubility of BP was measured in a number of solvents. Penetration of BP across human epidermis and high density polyethylene (HDPE) membranes was studied from 50% saturated solutions in each solvent. Results. Maximal BP fluxes from the solvents across the two membranes varied widely. Highest fluxes were observed from 90% ethanol (EtOH) for epidermis and from isopropyl myristate (IPM) and C12-15 benzoate alcohols (C12-15 BA) for HDPE membrane. Both the flux and estimated permeability coefficient and skin-vehicle partitioning of BP appeared to be related to the vehicle solubility parameter (delta(v)). The major effects of solvents on BP flux appear to be via changes in BP diffusivity through the membranes. Conclusions. Minimal penetration of sunscreens such as BP is best achieved by choosing vehicles with a delta(v) substantially different to the solubility parameter of the membrane.

New integrable model of correlated electrons with off-diagonal long-range order from so(5) symmetry

We present a new integrable model for correlated electrons which is based on so(5) symmetry. By using an eta-pairing realization we construct eigenstates of the Hamiltonian with off-diagonal long-range order. It is also shown that these states lie in the ground state sector. We exactly solve the model on a one-dimensional lattice by the Bethe ansatz.

Extraordinary and extensive karyotypic variation: A 48-fold range in chromosome number in the gall-inducing scale insect Apiomorpha (Hemiptera : Coccoidea : Eriococcidae)

Chromosome number reflects strong constraints on karyotype evolution, unescaped by the majority of animal taxa. Although there is commonly chromosomal polymorphism among closely related taxa, very large differences in chromosome number are rare. This study reports one of the most extensive chromosomal ranges yet reported for an animal genus. Apiomorpha Rubsaamen (Hemiptera: Coccoidea: Eriococcidae), an endemic Australian gall-inducing scale insect genus, exhibits an extraordinary 48-fold variation in chromosome number with diploid numbers ranging from 4 to about 192. Diploid complements of all other eriococcids examined to date range only from 6 to 28. Closely related species of Apiomorpha usually have very different karyotypes, to the extent that the variation within some species- groups is as great as that across the entire genus. There is extensive chromosomal variation among populations within 17 of the morphologically defined species of Apiomorpha indicating the existence of cryptic species-complexes. The extent and pattern of karyotypic variation suggests rapid chromosomal evolution via fissions and (or) fusions. It is hypothesized that chromosomal rearrangements in Apiomorpha species may be associated with these insects' tracking the radiation of their speciose host genus, Eucalyptus.

Effect of increased lung expansion on lung growth and development near midgestation in fetal sheep

Obstruction of the fetal trachea is a potent stimulus for fetal lung growth and may have therapeutic potential in human fetuses with lung hypoplasia. However, the effects of increased lung expansion on lung development near midgestation, which is the preferred timing for fetal intervention, have not been well studied. Our aim was to determine the effects of increased lung expansion on lung development at 75-90 d of gestation in fetal sheep. In three groups of fetuses (n = 4 for each), the trachea was occluded for either 10 [10-d tracheal occlusion (TO) group] or 15 d (15-d TO group) or left intact (control fetuses). TO for both 10 and 15 d caused fetal hydrops, resulting in significantly increased fetal body weights. Both periods of TO significantly increased total lung DNA contents from 99.8 +/- 10.1 to 246.0 +/- 5.3 and 246.9 +/- 48.7 mg in 10- and 15-d TO fetuses, respectively. TO for 10 and 15 d also increased airspace diameter, although the percentage of lung occupied by airspace was not increased in 10-d TO fetuses due to large increases in interairway distances; this resulted from a large increase in mesenchymal tissue. The interairway distances at 15 d of TO were reduced compared with the 10-d value but were still similar to 30% larger than control values. We conclude that TO at

Long range forecasts of the numbers of Helicoverpa punctigera and H-armigera (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) in Australia using the Southern Oscillation Index and the Sea Surface Temperature

The use of long-term forecasts of pest pressure is central to better pest management. We relate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to long-term light-trap catches of the two key moth pests of Australian agriculture, Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hubner), at Narrabri, New South Wales over 11 years, and for H. punctigera only at Turretfield, South Australia over 22 years. At Narrabri, the size of the first spring generation of both species was significantly correlated with the SOI in certain months, sometimes up to 15 months before the date of trapping. Differences in the SOI and SST between significant months were used to build composite variables in multiple regressions which gave fitted values of the trap catches to less than 25% of the observed values. The regressions suggested that useful forecasts of both species could be made 6-15 months ahead. The influence of the two weather variables on trap catches of H. punctigera at Turretfield were not as strong as at Narrabri, probably because the SOI was not as strongly related to rainfall in southern Australia as it is in eastern Australia. The best fits were again given by multiple regressions with SOI plus SST variables, to within 40% of the observed values. The reliability of both variables as predictors of moth numbers may be limited by the lack of stability in the SOI-rainfall correlation over the historical record. As no other data set is available to test the regressions, they can only be tested by future use. The use of long-term forecasts in pest management is discussed, and preliminary analyses of other long sets of insect numbers suggest that the Southern Oscillation Index may be a useful predictor of insect numbers in other parts of the world.

Is there an association between chronic lung disease and abdominal aortic aneurysm expansion?

Background: Although there is evidence demonstrating an association between chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), it is not clear whether COPD predicts greater rates of expansion of established aneurysms. We sought such an association in a cohort of men with aneurysms detected in a population-based study of screening for aneurysms. Methods: In addition to regular aortic ultrasound scans, 179 men with AAA underwent full lung function testing in order to identify the presence of COPD and its subgroups, emphysema and other obstructive ventilatory defects (OVD). The rate of expansion of each aneurysm was calculated and the men were divided into 'rapid expanders' (3 mm or more per year) and 'slow expanders' (less than 3 mm per year). Any association with the presence of COPD or smoking was tested using a multivariate model. Results: Over a median follow-up period of 36 months the mean rate of aortic expansion for the cohort of 179 men was 2.1 mm/year. There was no significant difference in prevalence of COPD (68% overall) or having ever been a smoker (87% overall) between the rapid expanders and the slow expanders. Conclusions: Although there was a high prevalence of COPD among men with an AAA, there was no association between the rate of expansion of AAA and the presence of any form of this disease.