Efficiency effects of agricultural economics research in the United States

Allocations of research funds across programs are often made for efficiency reasons. Social science research is shown to have small, lagged but significant effects on U.S. agricultural efficiency when public agricultural R&D and extension are simultaneously taken into account. Farm management and marketing research variables are used to explain variations in estimates of allocative and technical efficiency using a Bayesian approach that incorporates stylized facts concerning lagged research impacts in a way that is less restrictive than popular polynomial distributed lags. Results are reported in terms of means and standard deviations of estimated probability distributions of parameters and long-run total multipliers. Extension is estimated to have a greater impact on both allocative and technical efficiency than either R&D or social science research.

Predicting returns in U.S. financial sector indices

This study focuses on: (i) the responsiveness of the U.S. financial sector stock indices to foreign exchange (FX) and interest rate changes; and, (ii) the extent to which good model specification can enhance the forecasts from the associated models. Three models are considered. Only the error-correction model (ECM) generated efficient and consistent coefficient estimates. Furthermore, a simple zero lag model in differences which is clearly mis-specified, generated forecasts that are better than those of the ECM, even if the ECM depicts relationships that are more consistent with economic theory. In brief, FX and interest rate changes do not impact on the return-generating process of the stock indices in any substantial way. Most of the variation in the sector stock indices is associated with past variation in the indices themselves and variation in the market-wide stock index. These results have important implications for financial and economic policies.

Quantifying simulator discrepancy in discrete-time dynamical simulators

When making predictions with complex simulators it can be important to quantify the various sources of uncertainty. Errors in the structural specification of the simulator, for example due to missing processes or incorrect mathematical specification, can be a major source of uncertainty, but are often ignored. We introduce a methodology for inferring the discrepancy between the simulator and the system in discrete-time dynamical simulators. We assume a structural form for the discrepancy function, and show how to infer the maximum-likelihood parameter estimates using a particle filter embedded within a Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCEM) algorithm. We illustrate the method on a conceptual rainfall-runoff simulator (logSPM) used to model the Abercrombie catchment in Australia. We assess the simulator and discrepancy model on the basis of their predictive performance using proper scoring rules. This article has supplementary material online. © 2011 International Biometric Society.

Spatio-temporal analyses of West Nile virus transmission in Culex mosquitoes in northern Illinois, USA, 2004

After a severe outbreak of West Nile virus (WNV) in Cook County, Illinois, in 2002, detections of WNV in mosquitoes were frequent across the state in the following years despite small numbers of human cases. We conducted a spatio-temporal analysis of Culex (subgenus Culex) mosquitoes collected in 2004 in three mosquito abatement districts (MAD) in Cook County by calculating monthly estimates of mosquito density, prevalence of infected mosquitoes, and exposure intensity, which in turn is a product of mosquito density and infection rates. Mosquito infections were detected early at three sites in late May and were widely detected throughout the three MADs in the summer with infection rates as high as 13 per 1000 in August. Exposure intensities were higher at sites adjacent to the Des Plaines River, especially in August and September. The aggregated pattern of WNV transmission along the river might be related to the existence of substantial forest preserves and wetlands that might produce ecological conditions favorable for mosquito proliferation and interactions between mosquitoes and birds.

Static Analysis of Usefulness States in Transition P Systems

Transition P Systems are a parallel and distributed computational model based on the notion of the cellular membrane structure. Each membrane determines a region that encloses a multiset of objects and evolution rules. Transition P Systems evolve through transitions between two consecutive configurations that are determined by the membrane structure and multisets present inside membranes. Moreover, transitions between two consecutive configurations are provided by an exhaustive non-deterministic and parallel application of evolution rules. But, to establish the rules to be applied, it is required the previous calculation of useful, applicable and active rules. Hence, computation of useful evolution rules is critical for the whole evolution process efficiency, because it is performed in parallel inside each membrane in every evolution step. This work defines usefulness states through an exhaustive analysis of the P system for every membrane and for every possible configuration of the membrane structure during the computation. Moreover, this analysis can be done in a static way; therefore membranes only have to check their usefulness states to obtain their set of useful rules during execution.

Decision Trees for Applicability of Evolution Rules in Transition P Systems

Transition P Systems are a parallel and distributed computational model based on the notion of the cellular membrane structure. Each membrane determines a region that encloses a multiset of objects and evolution rules. Transition P Systems evolve through transitions between two consecutive configurations that are determined by the membrane structure and multisets present inside membranes. Moreover, transitions between two consecutive configurations are provided by an exhaustive non-deterministic and parallel application of active evolution rules subset inside each membrane of the P system. But, to establish the active evolution rules subset, it is required the previous calculation of useful and applicable rules. Hence, computation of applicable evolution rules subset is critical for the whole evolution process efficiency, because it is performed in parallel inside each membrane in every evolution step. The work presented here shows advantages of incorporating decision trees in the evolution rules applicability algorithm. In order to it, necessary formalizations will be presented to consider this as a classification problem, the method to obtain the necessary decision tree automatically generated and the new algorithm for applicability based on it.

Cloud query manager: uso de web semântica para evitar o problema de aprisionamento em IaaS

Cloud computing can be defined as a distributed computational model by through resources (hardware, storage, development platforms and communication) are shared, as paid services accessible with minimal management effort and interaction. A great benefit of this model is to enable the use of various providers (e.g a multi-cloud architecture) to compose a set of services in order to obtain an optimal configuration for performance and cost. However, the multi-cloud use is precluded by the problem of cloud lock-in. The cloud lock-in is the dependency between an application and a cloud platform. It is commonly addressed by three strategies: (i) use of intermediate layer that stands to consumers of cloud services and the provider, (ii) use of standardized interfaces to access the cloud, or (iii) use of models with open specifications. This paper outlines an approach to evaluate these strategies. This approach was performed and it was found that despite the advances made by these strategies, none of them actually solves the problem of lock-in cloud. In this sense, this work proposes the use of Semantic Web to avoid cloud lock-in, where RDF models are used to specify the features of a cloud, which are managed by SPARQL queries. In this direction, this work: (i) presents an evaluation model that quantifies the problem of cloud lock-in, (ii) evaluates the cloud lock-in from three multi-cloud solutions and three cloud platforms, (iii) proposes using RDF and SPARQL on management of cloud resources, (iv) presents the cloud Query Manager (CQM), an SPARQL server that implements the proposal, and (v) comparing three multi-cloud solutions in relation to CQM on the response time and the effectiveness in the resolution of cloud lock-in.

Dynamics of vector rogue waves in a fiber laser with a ring cavity

A pulse–pulse interaction that leads to rogue wave (RW) generation in lasers was previously attributed either to soliton–soliton or soliton–dispersive-wave interaction. The beating between polarization modes in the absence of a saturable absorber causes similar effects. Accounting for these polarization modes in a laser resonator is the purpose of the distributed vector model of laser resonators. Furthermore, high pump power, high amplitude, and short pulse duration are not necessary conditions to observe pulse attraction, repulsion, and collisions and the resonance exchange of energy between among them. The regimes of interest can be tuned just by changing the birefringence in the cavity with the pump power slightly higher than the laser threshold. This allows the observation of a wide range of RW patterns in the same experiment, as well as to classify them. The dynamics of the interaction between pulses leads us to the conclusion that all of these effects occur due to nonlinearity induced by the inverse population in the active fiber as well as an intrinsic nonlinearity in the passive part of the cavity. Most of the mechanisms of pulse–pulse interaction were found to be mutually exclusive. This means that all the observed RW patterns, namely, the “lonely,” “twins,” “three sisters,” and “cross,” are probably different cases of the same process.

El aprendizaje distribuido como estrategia didáctica en la enseñanza del vocabulario de ELE : Un acercamiento a su uso en el salón escolar sueco

Aprender nuevas palabras en un idioma extranjero, es decir, el léxico necesario que fundamenta la posibilidad del desarrollo de las destrezas comunicativas, constituye uno de los problemas más complejos en el proceso tanto de enseñanza como de aprendizaje del español como lengua extranjera. En relación con el aprendizaje del vocabulario identificamos un posible problema; el riesgo de que el número de palabras aprendidas se olvide aumenta después de la prueba o los ejercicios. Si nuestros alumnos no pueden ampliar su vocabulario su competencia comunicativa tampoco va a desarrollar.Para poder entender por qué ocurre el problema y cómo se podría encontrar otros recursos didácticos que contribuyan a un cambio en el proceso, investigamos un fenómeno conocido por la psicología de la educación como el efecto de la memoria espaciada - un fenómeno cognitivo que se benéfica de las repeticiones, pero siempre distribuidas en el tiempo. Estrategias de enseñanza que utilizan dicho efecto se refiere como aprendizaje distribuido.Mediante un pequeño estudio analizamos el efecto de la memoria espaciada (ME) como método alternativa. De este estudio podemos inferir que existe un efecto de memoria espaciada tangible en el aprendizaje de los alumnos que estudiaron según un modelo distribuido, es decir con repeticiones.Pudimos constatar un resultado positivo en este pequeño estudio piloto. Los alumnos lograron recordar en la examinación el 85% de las palabras ejercitadas en la clase un mes después. Este resultado abre nuevas perspectivas de estudio e indica que puede haber alternativas didácticas en la enseñanza del vocabulario de ELE en el salón escolar sueco.

Self-Assembled InAs/GaAs Quantum Dot Solar Cells

Our work focuses on experimental and theoretical studies aimed at establishing a fundamental understanding of the principal electrical and optical processes governing the operation of quantum dot solar cells (QDSC) and their feasibility for the realization of intermediate band solar cell (IBSC). Uniform performance QD solar cells with high conversion efficiency have been fabricated using carefully calibrated process recipes as the basis of all reliable experimental characterization. The origin for the enhancement of the short circuit current density (Jsc) in QD solar cells was carefully investigated. External quantum efficiency (EQE) measurements were performed as a measure of the below bandgap distribution of transition states. In this work, we found that the incorporation of self-assembled quantum dots (QDs) interrupts the lattice periodicity and introduce a greatly broadened tailing density of states extending from the bandedge towards mid-gap. A below-bandgap density of states (DOS) model with an extended Urbach tail has been developed. In particular, the below-bandgap photocurrent generation has been attributed to transitions via confined energy states and background continuum tailing states. Photoluminescence measurement is used to measure the energy level of the lowest available state and the coupling effect between QD states and background tailing states because it results from a non-equilibrium process. A basic I-V measurement reveals a degradation of the open circuit voltage (Voc) of QD solar cells, which is related to a one sub-bandgap photon absorption process followed by a direct collection of the generated carriers by the external circuit. We have proposed a modified Shockley-Queisser (SQ) model that predicts the degradation of Voc compared with a reference bulk device. Whenever an energy state within the forbidden gap can facilitate additional absorption, it can facilitate recombination as well. If the recombination is non-radiative, it is detrimental to solar cell performance. We have also investigated the QD trapping effects as deep level energy states. Without an efficient carrier extraction pathway, the QDs can indeed function as mobile carriers traps. Since hole energy levels are mostly connected with hole collection under room temperature, the trapping effect is more severe for electrons. We have tried to electron-dope the QDs to exert a repulsive Coulomb force to help improve the carrier collection efficiency. We have experimentally observed a 30% improvement of Jsc for 4e/dot devices compared with 0e/dot devices. Electron-doping helps with better carrier collection efficiency, however, we have also measured a smaller transition probability from valance band to QD states as a direct manifestation of the Pauli Exclusion Principle. The non-linear performance is of particular interest. With the availability of laser with on-resonance and off-resonance excitation energy, we have explored the photocurrent enhancement by a sequential two-photon absorption (2PA) process via the intermediate states. For the first time, we are able to distinguish the nonlinearity effect by 1PA and 2PA process. The observed 2PA current under off-resonant and on-resonant excitation comes from a two-step transition via the tailing states instead of the QD states. However, given the existence of an extended Urbach tail and the small number of photons available for the intermediate states to conduction band transition, the experimental results suggest that with the current material system, the intensity requirement for an observable enhancement of photocurrent via a 2PA process is much higher than what is available from concentrated sun light. In order to realize the IBSC model, a matching transition strength needs to be achieved between valance band to QD states and QD states to conduction band. However, we have experimentally shown that only a negligible amount of signal can be observed at cryogenic temperature via the transition from QD states to conduction band under a broadband IR source excitation. Based on the understanding we have achieved, we found that the existence of the extended tailing density of states together with the large mismatch of the transition strength from VB to QD and from QD to CB, has systematically put into question the feasibility of the IBSC model with QDs.

Quantification of the human postural control system to perturbations

Human standing posture is inherently unstable. The postural control system (PCS), which maintains standing posture, is composed of the sensory, musculoskeletal, and central nervous systems. Together these systems integrate sensory afferents and generate appropriate motor efferents to adjust posture. The PCS maintains the body center of mass (COM) with respect to the base of support while constantly resisting destabilizing forces from internal and external perturbations. To assess the human PCS, postural sway during quiet standing or in response to external perturbation have frequently been examined descriptively. Minimal work has been done to understand and quantify the robustness of the PCS to perturbations. Further, there have been some previous attempts to assess the dynamical systems aspects of the PCS or time evolutionary properties of postural sway. However those techniques can only provide summary information about the PCS characteristics; they cannot provide specific information about or recreate the actual sway behavior. This dissertation consists of two parts: part I, the development of two novel methods to assess the human PCS and, part II, the application of these methods. In study 1, a systematic method for analyzing the human PCS during perturbed stance was developed. A mild impulsive perturbation that subjects can easily experience in their daily lives was used. A measure of robustness of the PCS, 1/MaxSens that was based on the inverse of the sensitivity of the system, was introduced. 1/MaxSens successfully quantified the reduced robustness to external perturbations due to age-related degradation of the PCS. In study 2, a stochastic model was used to better understand the human PCS in terms of dynamical systems aspect. This methodology also has the advantage over previous methods in that the sway behavior is captured in a model that can be used to recreate the random oscillatory properties of the PCS. The invariant density which describes the long-term stationary behavior of the center of pressure (COP) was computed from a Markov chain model that was applied to postural sway data during quiet stance. In order to validate the Invariant Density Analysis (IDA), we applied the technique to COP data from different age groups. We found that older adults swayed farther from the centroid and in more stochastic and random manner than young adults. In part II, the tools developed in part I were applied to both occupational and clinical situations. In study 3, 1/MaxSens and IDA were applied to a population of firefighters to investigate the effects of air bottle configuration (weight and size) and vision on the postural stability of firefighters. We found that both air bottle weight and loss of vision, but not size of air bottle, significantly decreased balance performance and increased fall risk. In study 4, IDA was applied to data collected on 444 community-dwelling elderly adults from the MOBILIZE Boston Study. Four out of five IDA parameters were able to successfully differentiate recurrent fallers from non-fallers, while only five out of 30 more common descriptive and stochastic COP measures could distinguish the two groups. Fall history and the IDA parameter of entropy were found to be significant risk factors for falls. This research proposed a new measure for the PCS robustness (1/MaxSens) and a new technique for quantifying the dynamical systems aspect of the PCS (IDA). These new PCS analysis techniques provide easy and effective ways to assess the PCS in occupational and clinical environments.

An empirical investigation of the impact of global energy transition on Nigerian oil and gas exports

18 months embargo on the thesis and check appendix for copy right materials

Dynamic models for computer viruses

Computer viruses are an important risk to computational systems endangering either corporations of all sizes or personal computers used for domestic applications. Here, classical epidemiological models for disease propagation are adapted to computer networks and, by using simple systems identification techniques a model called SAIC (Susceptible, Antidotal, Infectious, Contaminated) is developed. Real data about computer viruses are used to validate the model. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Detection of West Nile virus antigen in mosquitoes and avian tissues by a monoclonal antibody-based capture enzyme immunoassay

An antigen capture immunoassay to detect West Nile (WN) virus antigen in infected mosquitoes and avian tissues has been developed. With this assay purified WN virus was detected at a concentration of 32 pg/0.1 ml, and antigen in infected suckling mouse brain and laboratory-infected mosquito pools could be detected when the WN virus titer was 10(2.1) to 10(3.7) PFU/0.1 ml. In a blindly coded set of field-collected mosquito pools (n = 100), this assay detected WN virus antigen in 12 of 18 (66.7%) TaqMan-positive pools, whereas traditional reverse transcriptase PCR detected 10 of 18 (55.5%) positive pools. A sample set of 73 organ homogenates from naturally infected American crows was also examined by WN virus antigen capture immunoassay and TaqMan for the presence of WN virus. The antigen capture assay detected antigen in 30 of 34 (88.2%) TaqMan-positive tissues. Based upon a TaqMan-generated standard curve of infectious WN virus, the limit of detection in the antigen capture assay for avian tissue homogenates was approximately 10(3) PFU/0.1 ml. The recommended WN virus antigen capture protocol, which includes a capture assay followed by a confirmatory inhibition assay used to retest presumptive positive samples, could distinguish between the closely related WN and St. Louis encephalitis viruses in virus-infected mosquito pools and avian tissues. Therefore, this immunoassay demonstrates adequate sensitivity and specificity for surveillance of WN virus activity in mosquito vectors and avian hosts, and, in addition, it is easy to perform and relatively inexpensive compared with the TaqMan assay.

Chikungunya risk for Brazil

This study aimed to show, based on the literature on the subject, the potential for dispersal and establishment of the chikungunya virus in Brazil. The chikungunya virus, a Togaviridae member of the genusAlphavirus, reached the Americas in 2013 and, the following year, more than a million cases were reported. In Brazil, indigenous transmission was registered in Amapa and Bahia States, even during the period of low rainfall, exposing the whole country to the risk of virus spreading. Brazil is historically infested by Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, also dengue vectors. Chikungunya may spread, and it is important to take measures to prevent the virus from becoming endemic in the country. Adequate care for patients with chikungunya fever requires training general practitioners, rheumatologists, nurses, and experts in laboratory diagnosis. Up to November 2014, more than 1,000 cases of the virus were reported in Brazil. There is a need for experimental studies in animal models to understand the dynamics of infection and the pathogenesis as well as to identify pathophysiological mechanisms that may contribute to identifying effective drugs against the virus. Clinical trials are needed to identify the causal relationship between the virus and serious injuries observed in different organs and joints. In the absence of vaccines or effective drugs against the virus, currently the only way to prevent the disease is vector control, which will also reduce the number of cases of dengue fever.