967 resultados para Railroad safety, Bayesian methods, Accident modification factor, Countermeasure selection
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There has been a rapid increase in the complexity and integration of many safety-critical systems. In consequence, it is becoming increasingly difficult to identify the causes of incidents and accidents back through the complex interactions that lead to an adverse event. At the same time, there is a growing appreciation of the need to consider a broad range of contextual factors in the aftermath of any mishap. A number of regulators, operators and research teams have responded to these developments by proposing novel techniques to support the analysis of complex, safety-critical incidents. It is important to illustrate these different approaches by applying them to a number of common case studies. The following pages, therefore, show how STAMP and AcciMap might support the Serviço Público Federal investigation into the explosion and fire of the Brazilian launch vehicle VLS-1 VO3. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to present designs for an accelerated life test (ALT). Design/methodology/approach - Bayesian methods and simulation Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) methods were used. Findings - In the paper a Bayesian method based on MCMC for ALT under EW distribution (for life time) and Arrhenius models (relating the stress variable and parameters) was proposed. The paper can conclude that it is a reasonable alternative to the classical statistical methods since the implementation of the proposed method is simple, not requiring advanced computational understanding and inferences on the parameters can be made easily. By the predictive density of a future observation, a procedure was developed to plan ALT and also to verify if the conformance fraction of the manufactured process reaches some desired level of quality. This procedure is useful for statistical process control in many industrial applications. Research limitations/implications - The results may be applied in a semiconductor manufacturer. Originality/value - The Exponentiated-Weibull-Arrhenius model has never before been used to plan an ALT. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
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Background and objectives: Glass ampoules have been widely used in packaging injection drugs. Glass has important characteristics that allow it to be widely used in fabrication of recipients for drugs and other sterile substances. However, contamination of solutions with glass microparticles on breaking open glass ampoules, the presence of metals, percutaneous injury, and biological contamination justify the need of educational materials to orient the manipulation of ampoules. Contents: Glass microparticles generated in the snap-opening of ampoules, as well as metals that contaminate their contents can be aspirated and injected through several routes. Exogenous contaminations by glass and metals can reach several sites in the organism. They trigger organic reactions that may give rise to injuries. Opening ampoules can expose professionals to the risk of percutaneous injuries. These lesions increase the biological risk as they are the gateway for viruses and bacteria. Ampoules opening systems (VIBRAC and OPC) have been developed to reduce the incidence of such accidents. Alternative materials to glass may represent an interesting strategy to increase safety. The use of prefilled syringes may represent an evolution regarding safety. Conclusions: Team training and information provided by the pharmaceutical industry on the use of ampoules are fundamental in the prophylaxis of accidents and contaminations. The search for safer materials to replace glass is also important. © 2011 Elsevier Editora Ltda.
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CeO2 nanoparticles were synthesized by the precipitation method and modified with para-toluene sulfonic acid (PTSH), either in situ or post-synthesis. The presence of PTSH in the samples was confirmed by FTIR. PXRD and FTIR analyses showed that the post-synthesis PTSH modification altered the CeO2 structure, whereas the in situ modification maintained intact the crystalline structure and UV-vis absorbance properties. For both in situ and post-synthesis modifications, TEM images revealed the presence of nanoparticles that were 5nm in size. The dispersibility of the in situ PTSH-modified material in a hydrophilic ureasil-poly(ethylene oxide) matrix was investigated using SAXS measurements, which indicated that CeO2 nanoparticles modified with PTSH in situ were less aggregated within the matrix, compared to unmodified CeO2 nanoparticles. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.
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Pós-graduação em Genética e Melhoramento Animal - FCAV
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We sequenced part of the 16S rRNA mitochondrial gene in 17 extant taxa of Pilosa (sloths and anteaters) and used these sequences along with GenBank sequences of both extant and extinct sloths to perform phylogenetic analysis based on parsimony, maximum-likelihood and Bayesian methods. By increasing the taxa density for anteaters and sloths we were able to clarify some points of the Pilosa phylogenetic tree. Our mitochondrial 16S results show Bradypodidae as a monophyletic and robustly supported clade in all the analysis. However, the Pleistocene fossil Mylodon darwinii does not group significantly to either Bradypodidae or Megalonychidae which indicates that trichotomy best represents the relationship between the families Mylodontidae, Bradypodidae and Megalonychidae. Divergence times also allowed us to discuss the taxonomic status of Cyclopes and the three species of three-toed sloths, Bradypus tridactylus, Bradypus variegatus and Bradypus torquatus. In the Bradypodidae the split between Bradypus torquatus and the proto-Bradypus tridactylus / B. variegatus was estimated as about 7.7 million years ago (MYA), while in the Myrmecophagidae the first offshoot was Cyclopes at about 31.8 MYA followed by the split between Myrmecophaga and Tamandua at 12.9 MYA. We estimate the split between sloths and anteaters to have occurred at about 37 MYA.
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Pós-graduação em Matematica Aplicada e Computacional - FCT
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Pós-graduação em Medicina Veterinária - FCAV
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Pós-graduação em Genética e Melhoramento Animal - FCAV
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Cosmetics have been used since ancient times and, recently, their consumption has increased greatly in many countries, including brazil, which is the third largest consumer market in the world. Thus, concern for the safety and efficacy of these products should be heightened, even though these products are rarely related to adverse reactions that damage the health. Brazilian law requires manufacturers to subject their products to safety testing, to assess the possible reactions that could be caused by them (irritation, sensitization, systemic effects). To this end, in general, animals have been used as the experimental model, but this practice is being increasingly controlled, so that the scientific community is looking for alternative tests that do not require experimental in vivo models. Thus, this review aims to describe the main biological assays used to assess the safety of cosmetics, as well as in vitro assays that can replace them.
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Background: The evaluation of associations between genotypes and diseases in a case-control framework plays an important role in genetic epidemiology. This paper focuses on the evaluation of the homogeneity of both genotypic and allelic frequencies. The traditional test that is used to check allelic homogeneity is known to be valid only under Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, a property that may not hold in practice. Results: We first describe the flaws of the traditional (chi-squared) tests for both allelic and genotypic homogeneity. Besides the known problem of the allelic procedure, we show that whenever these tests are used, an incoherence may arise: sometimes the genotypic homogeneity hypothesis is not rejected, but the allelic hypothesis is. As we argue, this is logically impossible. Some methods that were recently proposed implicitly rely on the idea that this does not happen. In an attempt to correct this incoherence, we describe an alternative frequentist approach that is appropriate even when Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium does not hold. It is then shown that the problem remains and is intrinsic of frequentist procedures. Finally, we introduce the Full Bayesian Significance Test to test both hypotheses and prove that the incoherence cannot happen with these new tests. To illustrate this, all five tests are applied to real and simulated datasets. Using the celebrated power analysis, we show that the Bayesian method is comparable to the frequentist one and has the advantage of being coherent. Conclusions: Contrary to more traditional approaches, the Full Bayesian Significance Test for association studies provides a simple, coherent and powerful tool for detecting associations.
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The circumscription of genera belonging to tribe Bignonieae (Bignoniaceae) has traditionally been complex, with only a few genera having stable circumscriptions in the various classification systems proposed for the tribe. The genus Lundia, for instance, is well characterized by a series of morphological synapomorphies and its circumscription has remained quite stable throughout its history. Despite the stable circumscription of Lundia, the circumscription of species within the genus has remained problematic. This study aims to reconstruct the phylogeny of Lundia in order to refine species circumscriptions, gain a better understanding of relationships between taxa, and identify potential morphological synapomorphies for species and major clades. We sampled 26 accessions representing 13 species of Lundia, and 5 outgroups, and reconstructed the phylogeny of the genus using a chloroplast (ndhF) and a nuclear marker (PepC). Data derived from sequences of the individual loci were analyzed using parsimony and Bayesian inference, and the combined molecular dataset was analyzed with Bayesian methods. The monophyly of Lundia nitidula, a species with a particularly complex circumscription, was tested using Shimodaira-Hasegawa (SH) test and the approximately unbiased test for phylogenetic tree selection (AU test). In addition, 40 morphological characters were mapped onto the tree that resulted from the analysis of the combined molecular dataset in order to identify morphological synapomorphies of individual species and major clades. Lundia and most species currently recognized within the genus were strongly supported as monophyletic in all analyses. One species, Lundia nitidula, was not resolved as monophyletic, but the monophyly of this species was not rejected by the AU and SH tests. Lundia sect. Eriolundia is resolved as paraphyletic in all analyses, while Lundia sect. Eulundia is monophyletic and supported by the same morphological characters traditionally used to circumscribe this section. The phylogeny of Lundia contributed important information for a better circumscription of species and served as basis the taxonomic revision of the genus.
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Lignin is a macromolecule frequently obtained as residue during technological processing of biomass. Modifications in chemical structure of lignin generate valuable products, some with particular and unique characteristics. One of the available methods for modification of industrial lignin is oxidation by hydrogen peroxide. In this work, we conducted systematic studies of the oxidation process that were carried out at various pHs and oxidizing agent concentrations. Biophysical, biochemical, structural properties of the oxidized lignin were analyzed by UV spectrophotometry, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy and small angle X-ray scattering. Our results reveal that lignin oxidized with 9.1% H(2)O(2) (m/v) at pH 13.3 has the highest fragmentation, oxidation degree and stability. Although this processing condition might be considered quite severe, we have concluded that the stability of the obtained oxidized lignin was greatly increased. Therefore, the identified processing conditions of oxidation may be of practical interest for industrial applications. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.