Nonparametric Estimation of the Bivariate Recurrence Time Distribution

This paper considers statistical models in which two different types of events, such as the diagnosis of a disease and the remission of the disease, occur alternately over time and are observed subject to right censoring. We propose nonparametric estimators for the joint distribution of bivariate recurrence times and the marginal distribution of the first recurrence time. In general, the marginal distribution of the second recurrence time cannot be estimated due to an identifiability problem, but a conditional distribution of the second recurrence time can be estimated non-parametrically. In literature, statistical methods have been developed to estimate the joint distribution of bivariate recurrence times based on data of the first pair of censored bivariate recurrence times. These methods are efficient in the current model because recurrence times of higher orders are not used. Asymptotic properties of the estimators are established. Numerical studies demonstrate the estimator performs well with practical sample sizes. We apply the proposed method to a Denmark psychiatric case register data set for illustration of the methods and theory.

Analyzing Bivariate Survival Data with Interval Sampling and Application to Cancer Epidemiology

In medical follow-up studies, ordered bivariate survival data are frequently encountered when bivariate failure events are used as the outcomes to identify the progression of a disease. In cancer studies interest could be focused on bivariate failure times, for example, time from birth to cancer onset and time from cancer onset to death. This paper considers a sampling scheme where the first failure event (cancer onset) is identified within a calendar time interval, the time of the initiating event (birth) can be retrospectively confirmed, and the occurrence of the second event (death) is observed sub ject to right censoring. To analyze this type of bivariate failure time data, it is important to recognize the presence of bias arising due to interval sampling. In this paper, nonparametric and semiparametric methods are developed to analyze the bivariate survival data with interval sampling under stationary and semi-stationary conditions. Numerical studies demonstrate the proposed estimating approaches perform well with practical sample sizes in different simulated models. We apply the proposed methods to SEER ovarian cancer registry data for illustration of the methods and theory.

Is right coronary artery hypoplasia and sudden death an underdiagnosed association?

Determining whether hypoplasia of a coronary artery has caused or contributed to death is often complicated by an absence of histologic evidence of myocardial ischemia in the area of the heart supplied by the affected artery and also by the lack of data for assessing coronary artery size at autopsy. A 45-year-old woman is reported who collapsed and died and who was found at autopsy to have a dominant, small-caliber, right coronary artery, with acute and chronic ischemic changes in the posterior interventricular septum supplied by the diminutive vessel. This case provides evidence that small-caliber coronary arteries may be associated with a lethal outcome. Given the difficulties that may occur in determining whether there is a causal link between small coronary artery caliber and death, it is possible that this may be an underdiagnosed cause of sudden cardiac death, rather than a coincidental finding of minimal significance.

Epidemiology of pulmonary hypertension: new data from the Swiss registry

BACKGROUND: since 1999 data from pulmonary hypertension (PH) patients from all PH centres in Switzerland were prospectively collected. We analyse the epidemiological aspects of these data. METHODS: PH was defined as a mean pulmonary artery pressure of >25 mm Hg at rest or >30 mm Hg during exercise. Patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), PH associated with lung diseases, PH due to chronic thrombotic and/or embolic disease (CTEPH), or PH due to miscellaneous disorders were registered. Data from adult patients included between January 1999 and December 2004 were analysed. RESULTS: 250 patients were registered (age 58 +/- 16 years, 104 (41%) males). 152 patients (61%) had PAH, 73 (29%) had CTEPH and 18 (7%) had PH associated with lung disease. Patients <50 years (32%) were more likely to have PAH than patients >50 years (76% vs. 53%, p <0.005). Twenty-four patients (10%) were lost to followup, 58 patients (26%) died and 150 (66%) survived without transplantation or thrombendarterectomy. Survivors differed from patients who died in the baseline six-minute walking distance (400 m [300-459] vs. 273 m [174-415]), the functional impairment (NYHA class III/IV 86% vs. 98%), mixed venous saturation (63% [57-68] vs. 56% [50-61]) and right atrial pressure (7 mm Hg [4-11] vs. 11 mm Hg [4-18]). DISCUSSION: PH is a disease affecting adults of all ages. The management of these patients in specialised centres guarantees a high quality of care. Analysis of the registry data could be an instrument for quality control and might help identify weak points in assessment and treatment of these patients.

Arterial access through the right subclavian artery in surgery of the aortic arch improves neurologic outcome and mid-term quality of life

BACKGROUND: We have shown that selective antegrade cerebral perfusion improves mid-term quality of life in patients undergoing surgical repair for acute type A aortic dissection and aortic aneurysms. The aim of the study was to assess the impact of continuous cerebral perfusion through the right subclavian artery on immediate outcome and quality of life. METHODS: Perioperative data of 567 consecutive patients who underwent surgery of the aortic arch using deep hypothermic circulatory arrest have been analyzed. Patients were divided into three groups, according to the management of cerebral protection. Three hundred eighty-seven patients (68.3%) had deep hypothermic circulatory arrest with pharmacologic protection with pentothal only, 91 (16.0%) had selective antegrade cerebral perfusion and pentothal, and 89 (15.7%) had continuous cerebral perfusion through the right subclavian artery and pentothal. All in-hospital data were assessed, and quality of life was analyzed prospectively 2.4 +/- 1.2 years after surgery with the Short Form-36 Health Survey Questionnaire. RESULTS: Major perioperative cerebrovascular injuries were observed in 1.1% of the patients with continuous cerebral perfusion through the right subclavian artery, compared with 9.8% with selective antegrade cerebral perfusion (p < 0.001) and 6.5% in the group with no antegrade cerebral perfusion (p = 0.007). Average quality of life after an arrest time between 30 and 50 minutes with continuous cerebral perfusion through the right subclavian artery was significantly better than selective antegrade cerebral perfusion (90.2 +/- 12.1 versus 74.4 +/- 40.7; p = 0.015). CONCLUSIONS: Continuous cerebral perfusion through the right subclavian artery improves considerably perioperative brain protection during deep hypothermic circulatory arrest. Irreversible perioperative neurologic complications can be significantly reduced and duration of deep hypothermic circulatory arrest can be extended up to 50 minutes without impairment in quality of life.

A Surface Displacement Analysis for Volcan Pacaya from October 2001 through March 2013 by Means of 3-D Modeling of Precise Position GPS Data

Volcán Pacaya is one of three currently active volcanoes in Guatemala. Volcanic activity originates from the local tectonic subduction of the Cocos plate beneath the Caribbean plate along the Pacific Guatemalan coast. Pacaya is characterized by generally strombolian type activity with occasional larger vulcanian type eruptions approximately every ten years. One particularly large eruption occurred on May 27, 2010. Using GPS data collected for approximately 8 years before this eruption and data from an additional three years of collection afterwards, surface movement covering the period of the eruption can be measured and used as a tool to help understand activity at the volcano. Initial positions were obtained from raw data using the Automatic Precise Positioning Service provided by the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Forward modeling of observed 3-D displacements for three time periods (before, covering and after the May 2010 eruption) revealed that a plausible source for deformation is related to a vertical dike or planar surface trending NNW-SSE through the cone. For three distinct time periods the best fitting models describe deformation of the volcano: 0.45 right lateral movement and 0.55 m tensile opening along the dike mentioned above from October 2001 through January 2009 (pre-eruption); 0.55 m left lateral slip along the dike mentioned above for the period from January 2009 and January 2011 (covering the eruption); -0.025 m dip slip along the dike for the period from January 2011 through March 2013 (post-eruption). In all bestfit models the dike is oriented with a 75° westward dip. These data have respective RMS misfit values of 5.49 cm, 12.38 cm and 6.90 cm for each modeled period. During the time period that includes the eruption the volcano most likely experienced a combination of slip and inflation below the edifice which created a large scar at the surface down the northern flank of the volcano. All models that a dipping dike may be experiencing a combination of inflation and oblique slip below the edifice which augments the possibility of a westward collapse in the future.

The Right to Be Forgotten More Than a Pandora’s Box?

Recently, political voices have stressed the need to introduce a right to be forgotten as new human right. Individuals should have the right to make potentially damaging information disappear after a certain time has elapsed. Such new right, however, can come in conflict with the principle of free speech. Therefore, its scope needs to be evaluated in the light of appropriate data protection rules. Insofar, a more user-centered approach is to be realized. “Delete” can not be a value as such, but must be balanced within a new legal framework.

Privacy as human flourishing: Could a shift towards virtue ethics strengthen privacy protection in the age of Big Data?

Privacy is commonly seen as an instrumental value in relation to negative freedom, human dignity and personal autonomy. Article 8 ECHR, protecting the right to privacy, was originally coined as a doctrine protecting the negative freedom of citizens in vertical relations, that is between citizen and state. Over the years, the Court has extended privacy protection to horizontal relations and has gradually accepted that individual autonomy is an equally important value underlying the right to privacy. However, in most of the recent cases regarding Article 8 ECHR, the Court goes beyond the protection of negative freedom and individual autonomy and instead focuses self-expression, personal development and human flourishing. Accepting this virtue ethical notion, in addition to the traditional Kantian focus on individual autonomy and human dignity, as a core value of Article 8 ECHR may prove vital for the protection of privacy in the age of Big Data.

On the Search for an Adequate Scope of the Right to Be Forgotten

During the last decades, the virtual world increasingly gained importance and in this context the enforcement of privacy rights became more and more difficult. An important emanation of this trend is the right to be forgotten enshrining the protection of the data subject’s rights over his/her “own” data. Even though the right to be forgotten has been made part of the proposal for a completely revised Data Protection Regulation and has recently been acknowledged by the Court of Justice of the European Union (“Google/Spain” decision), to date, the discussions about the right and especially its implementation with regard to the fundamental right to freedom of expression have remained rather vague and need to be examined in more depth.

Different Prognostic Value of Functional Right Ventricular Parameters in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy/Dysplasia

BACKGROUND -The value of standard two-dimensional transthoracic echocardiographic (TTE) parameters for risk stratification in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy/dysplasia (ARVC/D) is controversial. METHODS AND RESULTS -We investigated the impact of right ventricular fractional area change (FAC) and tricuspid annulus plane systolic excursion (TAPSE) for prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) defined as the occurrence of cardiac death, heart transplantation, survived sudden cardiac death, ventricular fibrillation, sustained ventricular tachycardia or arrhythmogenic syncope. Among 70 patients who fulfilled the 2010 ARVC/D Task Force Criteria and underwent baseline TTE, 37 (53%) patients experienced a MACE during a median follow-up period of 5.3 (IQR 1.8-9.8) years. Average values for FAC, TAPSE, and TAPSE indexed to body surface area (BSA) decreased over time (p=0.03 for FAC, p=0.03 for TAPSE and p=0.01 for TAPSE/BSA, each vs. baseline). In contrast, median right ventricular end-diastolic area (RVEDA) increased (p=0.001 vs. baseline). Based on the results of Kaplan-Meier estimates, the time between baseline TTE and experiencing MACE was significantly shorter for patients with FAC <23% (p<0.001), TAPSE <17mm (p=0.02) or right atrial (RA) short axis/BSA ≥25mm/m(2) (p=0.04) at baseline. A reduced FAC constituted the strongest predictor of MACE (hazard ratio 1.08 per 1% decrease; 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.12; p<0.001) on bivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS -This long-term observational study indicates that TAPSE and dilation of right-sided cardiac chambers are associated with an increased risk for MACE in ARVC/D patients with advanced disease and a high risk for adverse events. However, FAC is the strongest echocardiographic predictor of adverse outcome in these patients. Our data advocate a role for TTE in risk stratification in patients with ARVC/D, although our results may not be generalizable to lower risk ARVC/D cohorts.

Right ventricle best predicts the race performance in amateur ironman athletes

PURPOSE The ironman (IM) triathlon is a popular ultraendurance competition, consisting of 3.8 km of swimming, 180.2 km of cycling, and 42.2 km of running. The aim of this study was to investigate the predictors of IM race time, comparing echocardiographic findings, anthropometric measures, and training characteristics. METHODS Amateur IM athletes (ATHL) participating in the Zurich IM race in 2010 were included. Participants were examined the day before the race by a comprehensive echocardiographic examination. Moreover, anthropometric measurements were obtained the same day. During the 3 months before the race, each IM-ATHL maintained a detailed training diary. Recorded data were related to total IM race time. RESULTS Thirty-eight IM finishers (mean ± SD age = 38 ± 9 yr, 32 men [84%]) were evaluated. Total race time was 684 ± 89 min (mean ± SD). For right ventricular fractional area change (45% ± 7%, Spearman ρ = -0.33, P = 0.05), a weak correlation with race time was observed. Race performance exhibited stronger associations with percent body fat (15.2 ± 5.6%, ρ = 0.56, P = 0.001), speed in running training (11.7 ± 1.2 km · h(-1), ρ = -0.52, P = 0.002), and left ventricular myocardial mass index (98 ± 24 g · m(-2), ρ = -0.42, P = 0.009). The strongest association was found between race time and right ventricular end-diastolic area (22 ± 4 cm2, ρ = -0.64, P < 0.0001). In multivariate analysis, right ventricular end-diastolic area (β = -16.7, 95% confidence interval = -27.3 to -6.1, P = 0.003) and percent body fat (β = 6.8, 95% confidence interval = 1.1-12.6, P = 0.02) were independently predictive of IM race time. CONCLUSIONS In amateur IM-ATHL, RV end-diastolic area and percent body fat were independently related to race performance. RV end-diastolic area was the strongest predictor of race time. The role of the RV in endurance exercise may thus be more important than previously thought and needs to be further studied.

Usefulness of inducible ventricular tachycardia to predict long-term adverse outcomes in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy

The role of the electrophysiologic (EP) study for risk stratification in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy is controversial. We investigated the role of inducible sustained monomorphic ventricular tachycardia (SMVT) for the prediction of an adverse outcome (AO), defined as the occurrence of cardiac death, heart transplantation, sudden cardiac death, ventricular fibrillation, ventricular tachycardia with hemodynamic compromise or syncope. Of 62 patients who fulfilled the 2010 Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy Task Force criteria and underwent an EP study, 30 (48%) experienced an adverse outcome during a median follow-up of 9.8 years. SMVT was inducible in 34 patients (55%), 22 (65%) of whom had an adverse outcome. In contrast, in 28 patients without inducible SMVT, 8 (29%) had an adverse outcome. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed an event-free survival benefit for patients without inducible SMVT (log-rank p = 0.008) with a cumulative survival free of an adverse outcome of 72% (95% confidence interval [CI] 56% to 92%) in the group without inducible SMVT compared to 26% (95% CI 14% to 50%) in the other group after 10 years. The inducibility of SMVT during the EP study (hazard ratio [HR] 2.99, 95% CI 1.23 to 7.27), nonadherence (HR 2.74, 95% CI 1.3 to 5.77), and heart failure New York Heart Association functional class II and III (HR 2.25, 95% CI 1.04 to 4.87) were associated with an adverse outcome on univariate Cox regression analysis. The inducibility of SMVT (HR 2.52, 95% CI 1.03 to 6.16, p = 0.043) and nonadherence (HR 2.34, 95% CI 1.1 to 4.99, p = 0.028) remained as significant predictors on multivariate analysis. This long-term observational data suggest that SMVT inducibility during EP study might predict an adverse outcome in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy, advocating a role for EP study in risk stratification.

Identifiability of diffusion and sorption parameters from in situ diffusion experiments by using simultaneously tracer dilution and claystone data

In situ diffusion experiments are performed in geological formations at underground research laboratories to overcome the limitations of laboratory diffusion experiments and investigate scale effects. Tracer concentrations are monitored at the injection interval during the experiment (dilution data) and measured from host rock samples around the injection interval at the end of the experiment (overcoring data). Diffusion and sorption parameters are derived from the inverse numerical modeling of the measured tracer data. The identifiability and the uncertainties of tritium and Na-22(+) diffusion and sorption parameters are studied here by synthetic experiments having the same characteristics as the in situ diffusion and retention (DR) experiment performed on Opalinus Clay. Contrary to previous identifiability analyses of in situ diffusion experiments, which used either dilution or overcoring data at approximate locations, our analysis of the parameter identifiability relies simultaneously on dilution and overcoring data, accounts for the actual position of the overcoring samples in the claystone, uses realistic values of the standard deviation of the measurement errors, relies on model identification criteria to select the most appropriate hypothesis about the existence of a borehole disturbed zone and addresses the effect of errors in the location of the sampling profiles. The simultaneous use of dilution and overcoring data provides accurate parameter estimates in the presence of measurement errors, allows the identification of the right hypothesis about the borehole disturbed zone and diminishes other model uncertainties such as those caused by errors in the volume of the circulation system and the effective diffusion coefficient of the filter. The proper interpretation of the experiment requires the right hypothesis about the borehole disturbed zone. A wrong assumption leads to large estimation errors. The use of model identification criteria helps in the selection of the best model. Small errors in the depth of the overcoring samples lead to large parameter estimation errors. Therefore, attention should be paid to minimize the errors in positioning the depth of the samples. The results of the identifiability analysis do not depend on the particular realization of random numbers. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating the mean and standard deviation of concentration distributions using censored samples

Environmental data sets of pollutant concentrations in air, water, and soil frequently include unquantified sample values reported only as being below the analytical method detection limit. These values, referred to as censored values, should be considered in the estimation of distribution parameters as each represents some value of pollutant concentration between zero and the detection limit. Most of the currently accepted methods for estimating the population parameters of environmental data sets containing censored values rely upon the assumption of an underlying normal (or transformed normal) distribution. This assumption can result in unacceptable levels of error in parameter estimation due to the unbounded left tail of the normal distribution. With the beta distribution, which is bounded by the same range of a distribution of concentrations, $\rm\lbrack0\le x\le1\rbrack,$ parameter estimation errors resulting from improper distribution bounds are avoided. This work developed a method that uses the beta distribution to estimate population parameters from censored environmental data sets and evaluated its performance in comparison to currently accepted methods that rely upon an underlying normal (or transformed normal) distribution. Data sets were generated assuming typical values encountered in environmental pollutant evaluation for mean, standard deviation, and number of variates. For each set of model values, data sets were generated assuming that the data was distributed either normally, lognormally, or according to a beta distribution. For varying levels of censoring, two established methods of parameter estimation, regression on normal ordered statistics, and regression on lognormal ordered statistics, were used to estimate the known mean and standard deviation of each data set. The method developed for this study, employing a beta distribution assumption, was also used to estimate parameters and the relative accuracy of all three methods were compared. For data sets of all three distribution types, and for censoring levels up to 50%, the performance of the new method equaled, if not exceeded, the performance of the two established methods. Because of its robustness in parameter estimation regardless of distribution type or censoring level, the method employing the beta distribution should be considered for full development in estimating parameters for censored environmental data sets. ^

Diminishing parochialism in intergroup conflict by disrupting the right temporo-parietal junction.

Individuals react to violation of social norms by outgroup members differently than to transgressions of those same norms by ingroup members: namely outgroup perpetrators are punished much more harshly than ingroup perpetrators. This parochial punishment pattern has been observed and extensively studied in social psychology and behavioral economics. Despite progress in recent years, however, little is known about the neural underpinnings of this intergroup bias. Here, we demonstrate by means of transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) that the transient disruption of the right, but not the left temporo-parietal junction (TPJ), reduces parochial punishment in a third-party punishment paradigm with real social groups. Moreover, we show that this observed TMS effect on parochial punishment is mediated by a classical punishment motive, i.e. retaliation. Finally, our data suggests that a change in perspective-taking might be the underlying mechanism that explains the impact of right TPJ disruption on retaliation motivation and parochial punishment. These findings provide the first causal evidence that the right TPJ plays a pivotal role in the implementation of parochial behaviors.