From Fluid Dynamics to Human Psychology.What Drives Financial Markets Towards Extreme Events

For decades researchers have been trying to build models that would help understand price performance in financial markets and, therefore, to be able to forecast future prices. However, any econometric approaches have notoriously failed in predicting extreme events in markets. At the end of 20th century, market specialists started to admit that the reasons for economy meltdowns may originate as much in rational actions of traders as in human psychology. The latter forces have been described as trading biases, also known as animal spirits. This study aims at expressing in mathematical form some of the basic trading biases as well as the idea of market momentum and, therefore, reconstructing the dynamics of prices in financial markets. It is proposed through a novel family of models originating in population and fluid dynamics, applied to an electricity spot price time series. The main goal of this work is to investigate via numerical solutions how well theequations succeed in reproducing the real market time series properties, especially those that seemingly contradict standard assumptions of neoclassical economic theory, in particular the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The results show that the proposed model is able to generate price realizations that closely reproduce the behaviour and statistics of the original electricity spot price. That is achieved in all price levels, from small and medium-range variations to price spikes. The latter were generated from price dynamics and market momentum, without superimposing jump processes in the model. In the light of the presented results, it seems that the latest assumptions about human psychology and market momentum ruling market dynamics may be true. Therefore, other commodity markets should be analyzed with this model as well.

Proactive and Preventive Student Welfare Activities in Finnish Preschool and Elementary School: Handling of Transition to Formal Schooling and a National Anti-Bullying Program as Examples

Prerequisites and effects of proactive and preventive psycho-social student welfare activities in Finnish preschool and elementary school were of interest in the present thesis. So far, Finnish student welfare work has mainly focused on interventions and individuals, and the voluminous possibilities to enhance well-being of all students as a part of everyday school work have not been fully exploited. Consequently, in this thesis three goals were set: (1) To present concrete examples of proactive and preventive psycho-social student welfare activities in Finnish basic education; (2) To investigate measurable positive effects of proactive and preventive activities; and (3) To investigate implementation of proactive and preventive activities in ecological contexts. Two prominent phenomena in preschool and elementary school years—transition to formal schooling and school bullying—were chosen as examples of critical situations that are appropriate targets for proactive and preventive psycho-social student welfare activities. Until lately, the procedures concerning both school transitions and school bullying have been rather problem-focused and reactive in nature. Theoretically, we lean on the bioecological model of development by Bronfenbrenner and Morris with concentric micro-, meso-, exo- and macrosystems. Data were drawn from two large-scale research projects, the longitudinal First Steps Study: Interactive Learning in the Child–Parent– Teacher Triangle, and the Evaluation Study of the National Antibullying Program KiVa. In Study I, we found that the academic skills of children from preschool–elementary school pairs that implemented several supportive activities during the preschool year developed more quickly from preschool to Grade 1 compared with the skills of children from pairs that used fewer practices. In Study II, we focused on possible effects of proactive and preventive actions on teachers and found that participation in the KiVa antibullying program influenced teachers‘ self-evaluated competence to tackle bullying. In Studies III and IV, we investigated factors that affect implementation rate of these proactive and preventive actions. In Study III, we found that principal‘s commitment and support for antibullying work has a clear-cut positive effect on implementation adherence of student lessons of the KiVa antibullying program. The more teachers experience support for and commitment to anti-bullying work from their principal, the more they report having covered KiVa student lessons and topics. In Study IV, we wanted to find out why some schools implement several useful and inexpensive transition practices, whereas other schools use only a few of them. We were interested in broadening the scope and looking at local-level (exosystem) qualities, and, in fact, the local-level activities and guidelines, along with teacherreported importance of the transition practices, were the only factors significantly associated with the implementation rate of transition practices between elementary schools and partner preschools. Teacher- and school-level factors available in this study turned out to be mostly not significant. To summarize, the results confirm that school-based promotion and prevention activities may have beneficial effects not only on students but also on teachers. Second, various top-down processes, such as engagement at the level of elementary school principals or local administration may enhance implementation of these beneficial activities. The main message is that when aiming to support the lives of children the primary focus should be on adults. In future, promotion of psychosocial well-being and the intrinsic value of inter- and intrapersonal skills need to be strengthened in the Finnish educational systems. Future research efforts in student welfare and school psychology, as well as focused training for psychologists in educational contexts, should be encouraged in the departments of psychology and education in Finnish universities. Moreover, a specific research centre for school health and well-being should be established.

Adam Smith, Moral Motivation and Business Ethics

This paper shows how Adam Smith’s concept of moral motivation applies to business ethics and ethical consumption. Moral motivation for Smith is embedded in his moral psychology and his theory of virtue, particularly in terms of socialization and our social interactions and in his view that people always seek approval for their conduct, either though actual or ideal spectators. It follows that right conduct depends on the spectator’s awareness of one’s conduct. Thus concerning business ethics, transparency and accountability are essential, as opposed to anonymity which is detrimental. Applying Smith’s theory of motivation to consumption entails two further points: One, information concerning business conduct without consumers seeking it and acting accordingly will only have a limited effect. Two, people’s concern for the propriety of their action can and should include consumption, such that purchasing behavior becomes a moral issue rather than a mere economic one.

Nongenetic inheritance, linguistic competence, prenatal experience and behavior manipulation: recent contributions from behavioral neurobiology and neuropsychology to the explanation of behavior

This article gives an overview of presuppositions and explanations posed by behaviorist psychology (particularly its radical branch), cognitive–nativist sciences (i.e. psycholinguistics and a branch of cognitive psychology) and other disciplines regarding important psychological events such as anxiety, stress, fear, mood states and language. In relation to the discussion of environment versus genetics, contributions from behavioral neurobiology and neuropsychology are added, showing evidence of traits that can be multigenerationally inherited in a non-genetic way, which have an impact thought the life of organisms and on their way of interacting with the environment; ways in which behavior can be altered by recently unsuspected environmental agents or events, and the overlooked role of prenatal experiences in the explanation of behavior. The evidence calls into question presuppositions made by the academic disciplines listed above, and suggests alternative behavior reinterpretations and explanations

Análisis bibliométrico de depresión infantil

El objetivo de este estudio fue identificar las tendencias en la investigación de la depresión infantil mediante un análisis bibliométrico de artículos publicados entre enero de 2010 y enero de 2015, en las bases de datos EBSCO, Scopus y Scielo. Se incluyeron 146 artículos, escritos en inglés, español y portugués. En el trabajo se identifican los autores más productivos y las tendencias de los autores con respecto al sexo, profesión y producción; así como los países, instituciones y revistas que más publicaron sobre dicho trastorno. La edad y la ansiedad son las variables que con más frecuencia se asocian al tema; de igual forma, se identificó el Children Depression Inventory (CDI) como el instrumento más común para medir la depresión infantil. En este periodo de tiempo destacan los artículos centrados en investigaciones sobre poblaciones con diferentes estados de salud, diseños correlacionales, de corte transversal y escritos por múltiples autores. Al analizar los resultados obtenidos se observa un creciente interés y preocupación de los investigadores por conocer la frecuencia de los trastornos del estado de ánimo y más específicamente de la depresión en niños, y la asociación e influencia que esta puede tener para su desarrollo.

Does uncertainty cause inertia in decision making? An experimental study of the role of regret aversion and indecisiveness

Previous research has shown that often there is clear inertia in individual decision making---that is, a tendency for decision makers to choose a status quo option. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate two potential determinants of inertia in uncertain environments: (i) regret aversion and (ii) ambiguity-driven indecisiveness. I use a between-subjects design with varying conditions to identify the effects of these two mechanisms on choice behavior. In each condition, participants choose between two simple real gambles, one of which is the status quo option. I find that inertia is quite large and that both mechanisms are equally important.

Communicating information about medication side effects: effects on satisfaction, perceived risk to health, and intention to comply

Previous research has shown that people's evaluations of explanations about medication and their intention to comply with the prescription are detrimentally affected by the inclusion of information about adverse side effects of the medication. The present study (Experiment 1) examined which particular aspects of information about side effects (their number, likelihood of occurrence, or severity) are likely to have the greatest effect on people's satisfaction, perception of risk, and intention to comply, as well as how the information about side effects interacts with information about the severity of the illness for which the medication was prescribed. Across all measures, it was found that manipulations of side effect severity had the greatest impact on people's judgements, followed by manipulations of side effect likelihood and then number. Experiments 2 and 3 examined how the severity of the diagnosed illness and information about negative side effects interact with two other factors suggested by Social Cognition models of health behaviour to affect people's intention to comply: namely, perceived benefit of taking the prescribed drug, and the perceived level of control over preventing or alleviating the side effects. It was found that providing people with a statement about the positive benefit of taking the medication had relatively little effect on judgements, whereas informing them about how to reduce the chances of experiencing the side effects had an overall beneficial effect on ratings.

Evaluating explanations about drug prescriptions: effects of varying the nature of information about side effects and its relative position in explanations

This study evaluates computer-generated written explanations about drug prescriptions that are based on an analysis of both patient and doctor informational needs. Three experiments examine the effects of varying the type of information given about the possible side effects of the medication, and the order of information within the explanation. Experiment 1 investigated the effects of these two factors on people's ratings of how good they consider the explanations to be and of their perceived likelihood of taking the medication, as well as on their memory for the information in the explanation. Experiment 2 further examined the effects of varying information about side effects by separating out the contribution of number and severity of side effects. It was found that participants in this study did not “like” explanations that described severe side effects, and also judged that they would be less likely to take the medication if given such explanations. Experiment 3 therefore investigated whether information about severe side effects could be presented in such a way as to increase judgements of how good explanations are thought to be, as well as the perceived likelihood of adherence. The results showed some benefits of providing additional explanatory information.

What do patients want to know about their medicines, and what do doctors want to tell them?: a comparative study

A two phase study is reported. In the first phase, we asked a number of doctors to rate a list of information categories (identified by Berry, Gillie and Banbury 1995) in terms of how important they felt it was for the items to be included in an explanation to a patient about a drug prescription. In the second phase, we presented a large sample of people with a scenario about visiting their doctor and being prescribed medication, together with an explanation about the prescription which was said to be provided by the doctor. Four different explanations were compared, which were either based on what people in our earlier study wanted to know about drug prescriptions or on what the doctors thought it was important lo tell them. We also manipulated whether or not the explanations conveyed negative information (e.g. about the possible side effects of the medication). The results showed that people 'preferred' the explanations based on what the participants in the earlier study wanted to know about their medicines, rather than those based on what the doctors thought they should be told. They also 'preferred' the explanations that did not convey negative information, rather than those that did convey some negative information. In addition, the inclusion of negative information affected ratings of likely compliance with the prescribed medication.

Ranald Macdonald and statistical inference

Ranald Roderick Macdonald (1945-2007) was an important contributor to mathematical psychology in the UK, as a referee and action editor for British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology and as a participant and organizer at the British Psychological Society's Mathematics, statistics and computing section meetings. This appreciation argues that his most important contribution was to the foundations of significance testing, where his concern about what information was relevant in interpreting the results of significance tests led him to be a persuasive advocate for the 'Weak Fisherian' form of hypothesis testing.

The effects of pre- and postnatal depression in fathers: a natural experiment comparing the effects of exposure to depression on offspring

Background: Depression in fathers in the postnatal period is associated with an increased risk of behavioural problems in their offspring, particularly for boys. The aim of this study was to examine for differential effects of depression in fathers on children's subsequent psychological functioning via a natural experiment comparing prenatal and postnatal exposure. Methods:In a longitudinal population cohort study (the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC)) we examined the associations between depression in fathers measured in the prenatal and postnatal period (measured using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale), and later behavioural/emotional and psychiatric problems in their children, assessed at ages 31/2 and 7 years. Results: Children whose fathers were depressed in both the prenatal and postnatal periods had the highest risks of subsequent psychopathology, measured by total problems at age 31/2 years (Odds Ratio 3.55; 95% confidence interval 2.07, 6.08) and psychiatric diagnosis at age 7 years (OR 2.54; 1.19, 5.41). Few differences emerged when prenatal and postnatal depression exposure were directly compared, but when compared to fathers who were not depressed, boys whose fathers had postnatal depression only had higher rates of conduct problems aged 31/2 years (OR 2.14; 1.22, 3.72) whereas sons of the prenatal group did not (OR 1.41; .75, 2.65). These associations changed little when controlling for maternal depression and other potential confounding factors. Conclusions: The findings of this study suggest that the increased risk of later conduct problems, seen particularly in the sons of depressed fathers, maybe partly mediated through environmental means. In addition, children whose fathers are more chronically depressed appear to be at a higher risk of emotional and behavioural problems. Efforts to identify the precise mechanisms by which transmission of risk may occur should be encouraged to enable the development of focused interventions to mitigate risks for young children.

The effect of cleft lip and palate, and the timing of lip repair on mother-infant interactions and infant development

Background: Children with cleft lip and palate are at risk for psychological problems. Difficulties in mother-child interactions may be relevant, and could be affected by the timing of lip repair. Method: We assessed cognitive development, behaviour problems, and attachment in 94 infants with cleft lip (with and without cleft palate) and 96 non-affected control infants at 18 months; mother-infant interactions were assessed at two, six and 12 months. Index infants received either 'early', neonatal, lip repair, or 'late' repair (3-4 months). Results: Index infants did not differ from controls on measures of behaviour problems or attachment, regardless of timing of lip repair; however, infants having late lip repair performed worse on the Bayley Scales of Mental Development; the cognitive development of early repair infants was not impaired. Difficulties in early mother-infant interactions mediated the effects of late lip repair on infant cognitive outcome. Conclusions: Early interaction difficulties between mothers and infants having late repair of cleft lip are associated with poor cognitive functioning at 18 months. Interventions to facilitate mother-infant interactions prior to surgical lip repair should be explored.

The effects of maternal social phobia on mother-infant interactions and infant social responsiveness

Background: Social phobia aggregates in families. The genetic contribution to intergenerational transmission is modest, and parenting is considered important. Research on the effects of social phobia on parenting has been subject to problems of small sample size, heterogeneity of samples and lack of specificity of observational frameworks. We addressed these problems in the current study.Methods: We assessed mothers with social phobia (N = 84) and control mothers (N = 89) at 10 weeks in face-to-face interactions with their infants, and during a social challenge, namely, engaging with a stranger. We also assessed mothers with generalised anxiety disorder (GAD) (N = 50). We examined the contribution to infant social responsiveness of early infant characteristics (neonatal irritability), as well as maternal behaviour. Results: Mothers with social phobia were no less sensitive to their infants during face-to-face interactions than control mothers, but when interacting with the stranger they appeared more anxious, engaged less with the stranger themselves, and were less encouraging of the infant's interaction with the stranger; infants of index mothers also showed reduced social responsiveness to the stranger. These differences did not apply to mothers with GAD and their infants. Regression analyses showed that the reduction in social responsiveness in infants of mothers with social phobia was predicted by neonatal irritability and the degree to which the mother encouraged the infant to interact with the stranger.Conclusions: Mothers with social phobia show specific parenting difficulties, and their infants show early signs of reduced social responsiveness that are related to both individual infant differences and a lack of maternal encouragement to engage in social interactions.

Autistic symptomatology and language ability in autism spectrum disorder and specific language impairment

Background: Autism spectrum disorders (ASD) and specific language impairment (SLI) are common developmental disorders characterised by deficits in language and communication. The nature of the relationship between them continues to be a matter of debate. This study investigates whether the co-occurrence of ASD and language impairment is associated with differences in severity or pattern of autistic symptomatology or language profile. Methods: Participants (N = 97) were drawn from a total population cohort of 56,946 screened as part of study to ascertain the prevalence of ASD, aged 9 to 14 years. All children received an ICD-10 clinical diagnosis of ASD or No ASD. Children with nonverbal IQ 80 were divided into those with a language impairment (language score of 77 or less) and those without, creating three groups: children with ASD and a language impairment (ALI; N = 41), those with ASD and but no language impairment (ANL; N = 31) and those with language impairment but no ASD (SLI; N = 25). Results: Children with ALI did not show more current autistic symptoms than those with ANL. Children with SLI were well below the threshold for ASD. Their social adaptation was higher than the ASD groups, but still nearly 2 SD below average. In ALI the combination of ASD and language impairment was associated with weaker functional communication and more severe receptive language difficulties than those found in SLI. Receptive and expressive language were equally impaired in ALI, whereas in SLI receptive language was stronger than expressive. Conclusions: Co-occurrence of ASD and language impairment is not associated with increased current autistic symptomatology but appears to be associated with greater impairment in receptive language and functional communication.

The role played by the interaction between genetic factors and attachment in the stress response in infancy

Background: The importance of understanding which environmental and biological factors are involved in determining individual differences in physiological response to stress is widely recognized, given the impact that stress has on physical and mental health. Methods: The child-mother attachment relationship and some genetic polymorphisms (5-HTTLPR, COMT and GABRA6) were tested as predictors of salivary cortisol and alpha amylase concentrations, two biomarkers of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenocortical (HPA) axis and sympathetic adrenomedullary (SAM) system activity, during the Strange Situation (SS) procedure in a sample of more than 100 healthy infants, aged 12 to 18 months. Results: Individual differences in alpha amylase response to separation were predicted by security of attachment in interaction with 5-HTTLPR and GABRA6 genetic polymorphisms, whereas alpha amylase basal levels were predicted by COMT x attachment interaction. No significant effect of attachment, genetics and their interaction on cortisol activity emerged. Conclusions: These results help to disentangle the role played by both genetic and environmental factors in determining individual differences in stress response in infancy. The results also shed light on the suggestion that HPA and SAM systems are likely to have different characteristic responses to stress.