Compendium of projects in the European nanosafety cluster

The demand for research in the area of safety health and environmental management of nanotechnologies is present since a decade and identified by several landmark reports and studies. It is not the intention of this compendium to report on these as they are widely available. It is also not the intention to publish scientific papers and research results as this task is covered by scientific conferences and the peer reviewed press. The intention of the compendium is to bring together researchers, create synergy in their work, and establish links and communication between them mainly during the actual research phase before publication of results. Towards this purpose we find useful to give emphasis to communication of projects strategic aims, extensive coverage of specific work objectives and of methods used in research, strengthening human capacities and laboratories infrastructure, supporting collaboration for common goals and joint elaboration of future plans, without compromising scientific publication potential or IP Rights. These targets are far from being achieved with the publication in its present shape. We shall continue working, though, and hope with the assistance of the research community to make significant progress. We would like to stress that this sector is under development and progressing very fast, which might make some of the statements outdated or even obsolete. Nevertheless it is intended to provide a basis for the necessary future developments. [Ed.]

Forensic intelligence framework. Part II: study of the main generic building blocks and challenges through the examples of illicit drugs and false identity documents monitoring

The development of forensic intelligence relies on the expression of suitable models that better represent the contribution of forensic intelligence in relation to the criminal justice system, policing and security. Such models assist in comparing and evaluating methods and new technologies, provide transparency and foster the development of new applications. Interestingly, strong similarities between two separate projects focusing on specific forensic science areas were recently observed. These observations have led to the induction of a general model (Part I) that could guide the use of any forensic science case data in an intelligence perspective. The present article builds upon this general approach by focusing on decisional and organisational issues. The article investigates the comparison process and evaluation system that lay at the heart of the forensic intelligence framework, advocating scientific decision criteria and a structured but flexible and dynamic architecture. These building blocks are crucial and clearly lay within the expertise of forensic scientists. However, it is only part of the problem. Forensic intelligence includes other blocks with their respective interactions, decision points and tensions (e.g. regarding how to guide detection and how to integrate forensic information with other information). Formalising these blocks identifies many questions and potential answers. Addressing these questions is essential for the progress of the discipline. Such a process requires clarifying the role and place of the forensic scientist within the whole process and their relationship to other stakeholders.

Decoding decisions in healthy subjects and auditory discrimination in comatose patients through single-trial topographic EEG analyses

Neuroimaging studies analyzing neurophysiological signals are typically based on comparing averages of peri-stimulus epochs across experimental conditions. This approach can however be problematic in the case of high-level cognitive tasks, where response variability across trials is expected to be high and in cases where subjects cannot be considered part of a group. The main goal of this thesis has been to address this issue by developing a novel approach for analyzing electroencephalography (EEG) responses at the single-trial level. This approach takes advantage of the spatial distribution of the electric field on the scalp (topography) and exploits repetitions across trials for quantifying the degree of discrimination between experimental conditions through a classification scheme. In the first part of this thesis, I developed and validated this new method (Tzovara et al., 2012a,b). Its general applicability was demonstrated with three separate datasets, two in the visual modality and one in the auditory. This development allowed then to target two new lines of research, one in basic and one in clinical neuroscience, which represent the second and third part of this thesis respectively. For the second part of this thesis (Tzovara et al., 2012c), I employed the developed method for assessing the timing of exploratory decision-making. Using single-trial topographic EEG activity during presentation of a choice's payoff, I could predict the subjects' subsequent decisions. This prediction was due to a topographic difference which appeared on average at ~516ms after the presentation of payoff and was subject-specific. These results exploit for the first time the temporal correlates of individual subjects' decisions and additionally show that the underlying neural generators start differentiating their responses already ~880ms before the button press. Finally, in the third part of this project, I focused on a clinical study with the goal of assessing the degree of intact neural functions in comatose patients. Auditory EEG responses were assessed through a classical mismatch negativity paradigm, during the very early phase of coma, which is currently under-investigated. By taking advantage of the decoding method developed in the first part of the thesis, I could quantify the degree of auditory discrimination at the single patient level (Tzovara et al., in press). Our results showed for the first time that even patients who do not survive the coma can discriminate sounds at the neural level, during the first hours after coma onset. Importantly, an improvement in auditory discrimination during the first 48hours of coma was predictive of awakening and survival, with 100% positive predictive value. - L'analyse des signaux électrophysiologiques en neuroimagerie se base typiquement sur la comparaison des réponses neurophysiologiques à différentes conditions expérimentales qui sont moyennées après plusieurs répétitions d'une tâche. Pourtant, cette approche peut être problématique dans le cas des fonctions cognitives de haut niveau, où la variabilité des réponses entre les essais peut être très élevéeou dans le cas où des sujets individuels ne peuvent pas être considérés comme partie d'un groupe. Le but principal de cette thèse est d'investiguer cette problématique en développant une nouvelle approche pour l'analyse des réponses d'électroencephalographie (EEG) au niveau de chaque essai. Cette approche se base sur la modélisation de la distribution du champ électrique sur le crâne (topographie) et profite des répétitions parmi les essais afin de quantifier, à l'aide d'un schéma de classification, le degré de discrimination entre des conditions expérimentales. Dans la première partie de cette thèse, j'ai développé et validé cette nouvelle méthode (Tzovara et al., 2012a,b). Son applicabilité générale a été démontrée avec trois ensembles de données, deux dans le domaine visuel et un dans l'auditif. Ce développement a permis de cibler deux nouvelles lignes de recherche, la première dans le domaine des neurosciences cognitives et l'autre dans le domaine des neurosciences cliniques, représentant respectivement la deuxième et troisième partie de ce projet. En particulier, pour la partie cognitive, j'ai appliqué cette méthode pour évaluer l'information temporelle de la prise des décisions (Tzovara et al., 2012c). En se basant sur l'activité topographique de l'EEG au niveau de chaque essai pendant la présentation de la récompense liée à un choix, on a pu prédire les décisions suivantes des sujets (en termes d'exploration/exploitation). Cette prédiction s'appuie sur une différence topographique qui apparaît en moyenne ~516ms après la présentation de la récompense. Ces résultats exploitent pour la première fois, les corrélés temporels des décisions au niveau de chaque sujet séparément et montrent que les générateurs neuronaux de ces décisions commencent à différentier leurs réponses déjà depuis ~880ms avant que les sujets appuient sur le bouton. Finalement, pour la dernière partie de ce projet, je me suis focalisée sur une étude Clinique afin d'évaluer le degré des fonctions neuronales intactes chez les patients comateux. Des réponses EEG auditives ont été examinées avec un paradigme classique de mismatch negativity, pendant la phase précoce du coma qui est actuellement sous-investiguée. En utilisant la méthode de décodage développée dans la première partie de la thèse, j'ai pu quantifier le degré de discrimination auditive au niveau de chaque patient (Tzovara et al., in press). Nos résultats montrent pour la première fois que même des patients comateux qui ne vont pas survivre peuvent discriminer des sons au niveau neuronal, lors de la phase aigue du coma. De plus, une amélioration dans la discrimination auditive pendant les premières 48heures du coma a été observée seulement chez des patients qui se sont réveillés par la suite (100% de valeur prédictive pour un réveil).

Financial constraints and the failure of innovation projects

Theoretical and empirical approaches have stressed the existence of financial constraints in innovative activities of firms. This paper analyses the role of financial obstacles on the likelihood of abandoning an innovation project. Although a large number of innovation projects are abandoned before their completion, the empirical evidence has focused on the determinants of innovation while failed projects have received little attention. Our analysis differentiates between internal and external barriers on the probability of abandoning a project and we examine whether the effects are different depending on the stage of the innovation process. In the empirical analysis carried out for a panel data of potential innovative Spanish firms for the period 2004-2010, we use a bivariate probit model to take into account the simultaneity of financial constraints and the decision to abandon an innovation project. Our results show that financial constraints most affect the probability of abandoning an innovation project during the concept stage and that low-technological manufacturing and non-KIS service sectors are more sensitive to financial constraints. Keywords: barriers to innovation, failure of innovation projects, financial constraints JEL Classifications: O31, D21

Influence of the Premium Subsidy on Farmers’ Crop Insurance Coverage Decisions, April 2005

The Agricultural Risk Protection Act greatly increased the expected marginal net benefit of farmers buying high-coverage crop insurance policies by coupling premium subsidies to coverage level. This policy change, combined with cross-sectional variations in expected marginal net benefits of high-coverage policies, is used to estimate the role that premium subsidies play in farmers’ crop insurance decisions. We use county data for corn, soybeans, and wheat to estimate regression equations that are then used to obtain insight into two policy scenarios. We first estimate that eventual adoption of actuarially fair incremental premiums, combined with current coupled subsidies, would increase farmers’ purchase of high-coverage policies by almost 400 percent from 1998 levels across the three crops and two plans of insurance included in the analysis. We then estimate that a return to decoupled subsidies would decrease farmers’ high-coverage purchase decisions by an average of 36 percent.

Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly proposed to support conservation decision making. However, evidence of SDMs supporting solutions for on-ground conservation problems is still scarce in the scientific literature. Here, we show that successful examples exist but are still largely hidden in the grey literature, and thus less accessible for analysis and learning. Furthermore, the decision framework within which SDMs are used is rarely made explicit. Using case studies from biological invasions, identification of critical habitats, reserve selection and translocation of endangered species, we propose that SDMs may be tailored to suit a range of decision-making contexts when used within a structured and transparent decision-making process. To construct appropriate SDMs to more effectively guide conservation actions, modellers need to better understand the decision process, and decision makers need to provide feedback to modellers regarding the actual use of SDMs to support conservation decisions. This could be facilitated by individuals or institutions playing the role of 'translators' between modellers and decision makers. We encourage species distribution modellers to get involved in real decision-making processes that will benefit from their technical input; this strategy has the potential to better bridge theory and practice, and contribute to improve both scientific knowledge and conservation outcomes.

Parallel Research, Multiple Intellectual Property Right Protection Instruments, and the Correlation among R&D Projects, September 2005

The choice of a research path in attacking scientific and technological problems is a significant component of firms’ R&D strategy. One of the findings of the patent races literature is that, in a competitive market setting, firms’ noncooperative choices of research projects display an excessive degree of correlation, as compared to the socially optimal level. The paper revisits this question in a context in which firms have access to trade secrets, in addition to patents, to assert intellectual property rights (IPR) over their discoveries. We find that the availability of multiple IPR protection instruments can move the paths chosen by firms engaged in an R&D race toward the social optimum.

Evolving from inferences to decisions in the interpretation of scientific evidence

Le travail d'un(e) expert(e) en science forensique exige que ce dernier (cette dernière) prenne une série de décisions. Ces décisions sont difficiles parce qu'elles doivent être prises dans l'inévitable présence d'incertitude, dans le contexte unique des circonstances qui entourent la décision, et, parfois, parce qu'elles sont complexes suite à de nombreuse variables aléatoires et dépendantes les unes des autres. Etant donné que ces décisions peuvent aboutir à des conséquences sérieuses dans l'administration de la justice, la prise de décisions en science forensique devrait être soutenue par un cadre robuste qui fait des inférences en présence d'incertitudes et des décisions sur la base de ces inférences. L'objectif de cette thèse est de répondre à ce besoin en présentant un cadre théorique pour faire des choix rationnels dans des problèmes de décisions rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique. L'inférence et la théorie de la décision bayésienne satisfont les conditions nécessaires pour un tel cadre théorique. Pour atteindre son objectif, cette thèse consiste de trois propositions, recommandant l'utilisation (1) de la théorie de la décision, (2) des réseaux bayésiens, et (3) des réseaux bayésiens de décision pour gérer des problèmes d'inférence et de décision forensiques. Les résultats présentent un cadre uniforme et cohérent pour faire des inférences et des décisions en science forensique qui utilise les concepts théoriques ci-dessus. Ils décrivent comment organiser chaque type de problème en le décomposant dans ses différents éléments, et comment trouver le meilleur plan d'action en faisant la distinction entre des problèmes de décision en une étape et des problèmes de décision en deux étapes et en y appliquant le principe de la maximisation de l'utilité espérée. Pour illustrer l'application de ce cadre à des problèmes rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique, des études de cas théoriques appliquent la théorie de la décision, les réseaux bayésiens et les réseaux bayésiens de décision à une sélection de différents types de problèmes d'inférence et de décision impliquant différentes catégories de traces. Deux études du problème des deux traces illustrent comment la construction de réseaux bayésiens permet de gérer des problèmes d'inférence complexes, et ainsi surmonter l'obstacle de la complexité qui peut être présent dans des problèmes de décision. Trois études-une sur ce qu'il faut conclure d'une recherche dans une banque de données qui fournit exactement une correspondance, une sur quel génotype il faut rechercher dans une banque de données sur la base des observations faites sur des résultats de profilage d'ADN, et une sur s'il faut soumettre une trace digitale à un processus qui compare la trace avec des empreintes de sources potentielles-expliquent l'application de la théorie de la décision et des réseaux bayésiens de décision à chacune de ces décisions. Les résultats des études des cas théoriques soutiennent les trois propositions avancées dans cette thèse. Ainsi, cette thèse présente un cadre uniforme pour organiser et trouver le plan d'action le plus rationnel dans des problèmes de décisions rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique. Le cadre proposé est un outil interactif et exploratoire qui permet de mieux comprendre un problème de décision afin que cette compréhension puisse aboutir à des choix qui sont mieux informés. - Forensic science casework involves making a sériés of choices. The difficulty in making these choices lies in the inévitable presence of uncertainty, the unique context of circumstances surrounding each décision and, in some cases, the complexity due to numerous, interrelated random variables. Given that these décisions can lead to serious conséquences in the admin-istration of justice, forensic décision making should be supported by a robust framework that makes inferences under uncertainty and décisions based on these inferences. The objective of this thesis is to respond to this need by presenting a framework for making rational choices in décision problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories. Bayesian inference and décision theory meets the requirements for such a framework. To attain its objective, this thesis consists of three propositions, advocating the use of (1) décision theory, (2) Bayesian networks, and (3) influence diagrams for handling forensic inference and décision problems. The results present a uniform and coherent framework for making inferences and décisions in forensic science using the above theoretical concepts. They describe how to organize each type of problem by breaking it down into its différent elements, and how to find the most rational course of action by distinguishing between one-stage and two-stage décision problems and applying the principle of expected utility maximization. To illustrate the framework's application to the problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories, theoretical case studies apply décision theory, Bayesian net-works and influence diagrams to a selection of différent types of inference and décision problems dealing with différent catégories of trace evidence. Two studies of the two-trace problem illustrate how the construction of Bayesian networks can handle complex inference problems, and thus overcome the hurdle of complexity that can be present in décision prob-lems. Three studies-one on what to conclude when a database search provides exactly one hit, one on what genotype to search for in a database based on the observations made on DNA typing results, and one on whether to submit a fingermark to the process of comparing it with prints of its potential sources-explain the application of décision theory and influ¬ence diagrams to each of these décisions. The results of the theoretical case studies support the thesis's three propositions. Hence, this thesis présents a uniform framework for organizing and finding the most rational course of action in décision problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories. The proposed framework is an interactive and exploratory tool for better understanding a décision problem so that this understanding may lead to better informed choices.

Invasive lobular breast cancer and its variants: How special are they for systemic therapy decisions?

The WHO classification of breast tumors distinguishes, besides invasive breast cancer 'of no special type' (former invasive ductal carcinoma, representing 60-70% of all breast cancers), 30 special types, of which invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC) is the most common (5-15%). We review the literature on (i) the specificity and heterogeneity of ILC biology as documented by various analytical techniques, including the results of molecular testing for risk of recurrence; (ii) the impact of lobular histology on prediction of prognosis and effect of systemic therapies in patients. Though it is generally admitted that ILC has a better prognosis than IDC, is endocrine responsive, and responds poorly to chemotherapy, currently available data do not unanimously support these assumptions. This review demonstrates some lack of specific data and a need for improving clinical research design to allow oncologists to make informed systemic therapy decisions in patients with ILC. Importantly, future studies should compare various endpoints in ILC breast cancer patients among the group of hormonosensitive breast cancer.

When mothers work and fathers care. Joint household fertility decisions in Denmark and Spain

We analyze second birth decisions within the theoretical framework of joint household decision making, comparing two countires that represent the international extremes in terms of women's career behaviour, Denmark and Spain. Using all 8 ECHP panels we apply discrete time estimations of the likelihood of a second birth and show that in Spain, fertility behaviour continues to conform to the classic "Becker model" while in Denmark we identify a radically new behavioral pattern according to which career-women's fertility is conditional of their partners' contribution to care for the children.

Regional child care availability and fertility decisions in Spain

In this paper I explore two hypotheses: (1) Formal child care availability for children under three has a positive effect across contexts, according to the degree of adaptation of social institutions to changes in gender roles. Event history models with regional fixed effects are applied to data from the European Community Household Panel (1994-2001). The results show a significant and positive effect of regional day care availability on both, first and higher order births, while results are consistent with the second hypothesis only for second or higher order births.

Research involving biological material from forensic autopsies: legal and ethical issues.

Recommendations and laws do not always contain specific and clear provisions on the use of cadaveric material in research, and even more rarely do they address explicitly the ethical issues related to research on material obtained during forensic autopsy. In this article we analyse existing legal frameworks in Europe by comparing the legal provisions in 2 European Countries which are member states of the Council of Europe, the UK and Switzerland. They were chosen because they have distinct legal frameworks that make comparisons interesting. In addition, the detailed laws of the UK and a specific law project and national ethical recommendations in Switzerland permit us to define more clearly the legal range of options for researchers using cadaveric material obtained during forensic investigations. The Human Tissue Act 2004 in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, its Scottish equivalent with the same title (2006) and the national ethical guidelines in Switzerland all require consent from the deceased person, an appropriate relative or a person with power of attorney for healthcare decisions before cadaveric biological material can be obtained and used for research. However, if the purpose of the autopsy is purely forensic, no such authorization will be sought to carry out the autopsy and related analyses, which might include genetic testing. In order to be allowed to carry out future research projects, families need to be approached for informed consent, unless the deceased person had left written directives including permission to use his or her tissues for research.