Project risk management:a combined analytic hierarchy process and decision tree approach

Time, cost and quality achievements on large-scale construction projects are uncertain because of technological constraints, involvement of many stakeholders, long durations, large capital requirements and improper scope definitions. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can effectively be managed with the application of risk management throughout the project life cycle. Risk is by nature subjective. However, managing risk subjectively poses the danger of non-achievement of project goals. Moreover, risk analysis of the overall project also poses the danger of developing inappropriate responses. This article demonstrates a quantitative approach to construction risk management through an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and decision tree analysis. The entire project is classified to form a few work packages. With the involvement of project stakeholders, risky work packages are identified. As all the risk factors are identified, their effects are quantified by determining probability (using AHP) and severity (guess estimate). Various alternative responses are generated, listing the cost implications of mitigating the quantified risks. The expected monetary values are derived for each alternative in a decision tree framework and subsequent probability analysis helps to make the right decision in managing risks. In this article, the entire methodology is explained by using a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India. The case study demonstrates the project management effectiveness of using AHP and DTA.

Project risk management using multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis:a case study of Indian oil refinery

This study proposes an integrated analytical framework for effective management of project risks using combined multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis. First, a conceptual risk management model was developed through thorough literature review. The model was then applied through action research on a petroleum oil refinery construction project in the Central part of India in order to demonstrate its effectiveness. Oil refinery construction projects are risky because of technical complexity, resource unavailability, involvement of many stakeholders and strict environmental requirements. Although project risk management has been researched extensively, practical and easily adoptable framework is missing. In the proposed framework, risks are identified using cause and effect diagram, analysed using the analytic hierarchy process and responses are developed using the risk map. Additionally, decision tree analysis allows modelling various options for risk response development and optimises selection of risk mitigating strategy. The proposed risk management framework could be easily adopted and applied in any project and integrated with other project management knowledge areas.

Sistema informático de gestão e análise de genealogias

A selecção do tema e consequente trabalho de que emerge o titulo desta dissertação decorreu do facto de se ter tomado conhecimento da necessidade que os membros do projecto FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-007360 - Inquirir da Honra: Comissários do Santo Oficio e das Ordens Militares em Portugal (1570 - 1773) tiveram para satisfazer alguns objectivos em particular relacionados com a Genealogia da rede de Comissários. O sistema de trabalho manual que até aqui era utilizado, continha uma quantidade considerável de informação complexa, descrevendo ao pormenor as características não só dos indivíduos, mas também do que estava associado ao mesmo, incluindo quem e como se relacionava com as demais figuras. O principal objectivo consistiu assim em responder à pergunta: "Como será possível efectuar uma gestão de toda a informação genealógica recolhida no papel e permitir a sua análise no computador, recorrendo a tecnologias que, por um lado sejam eficientes, e por outro, fáceis de aprender pelos utilizadores?". Para conseguir responder à questão, foi necessário conhecer em primeira mão, o universo da Genealogia e a forma como opera, para que posteriormente, se desenhasse e moldasse toda uma aplicação às necessidades do utilizador. No entanto, a aplicação não se centra apenas em permitir ao utilizador efectuar uma gestão, recorrendo a um sistema de gestão de bases de dados MySQL e permitir a análise genealógica "tradicional" em programas como o Personal Ancestral File. Pretende-se sobretudo, que o utilizador faça uso e responda às perguntas "do presente" esperando que a própria aplicação sirva de motivação para novas perguntas, com a integração da tecnologia XML e do Sistema de Informação Geográfico, Google Earth, permitindo assim a análise de informação genealógica no mapa-mundo. ABSTRACT: The choice of this essay's work subject is set on the need to accomplish determinate goals related with the Genealogy of the network lnquisition Commissioners on behalf of the project FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-007360 members - Inquirir da Honra: Comissários do Santo Ofício e das Ordens Militares em Portugal (1570 - 1773)- To Inquire Honor: Inquisition Commissioners and the Military Orders in Portugal. The manual work system used till now presented a considerable amount of complex information, describing in detail characteristics not only of individuals but also of what is associated to it, including whoandhow. The main goal aimed at thus responding to: «How could it be possible to select and examine all the genealogical data registered on paper and allow it to be analyzed on computer, by means of technology that on one hand are efficient and on other hand easy to learn by its users? ». ln order to get to the answer to that matter, it was necessary to acknowledge firstly the Genealogy's universe so afterwards it could be possible to outline and shape an entire application to user needs. Nevertheless, the application does not only focus on allowing the user to carry out the system’s management, using MySQL database management system and allowing the "traditional" genealogical management in programs such as the Personal Ancestral File. Above all the user should get involved with it and answer the key questions of 'the present’ hoping that the application serves by itself as motivation to arouse new questions with the integration of XML technology and Geographic Information System, Google Earth, thus allowing the analysis of genealogical information worldwide.

A Step-by-Step Approach to Transit Oriented Development Project Delivery

A major challenge in successfully implementing transit-oriented development (TOD) is having a robust process that ensures effective appraisal, initiation and delivery of multi-stakeholder TOD projects. A step-by step project development process can assist in the methodic design, evaluation, and initiation of TOD projects. Successful TOD requires attention to transit, mixed-use development and public space. Brisbane, Australia provides a case-study where recent planning policies and infrastructure documents have laid a foundation for TOD, but where barriers lie in precinct level planning and project implementation. In this context and perhaps in others, the research effort needs to shift toward identification of appropriate project processes and strategies. This paper presents the outcomes of research conducted to date. Drawing on the mainstream approach to project development and financial evaluation for property projects, key steps for potential use in successful delivery of TOD projects have been identified, including: establish the framework; location selection; precinct context review; preliminary precinct design; the initial financial viability study; the decision stage; establishment of project structure; land acquisition; development application; and project delivery. The appropriateness of this mainstream development and appraisal process will be tested through stakeholder research, and the proposed process will then be refined for adoption in TOD projects. It is suggested that the criteria for successful TOD should be broadened beyond financial concerns in order to deliver public sector support for project initiation.

Management Innovation at the Brazilian Superior Tribunal of Justice

We describe administrative reform involving management innovation undertaken at the Superior Tribunal of Justice, Brazil`s highest appellate court for infra-constitutional cases. The innovation is the introduction of a new management model based on strategic planning and a process management approach to work processes. Introduction of the new model has been supported by the use of information technology and project management techniques. Qualitative methods were used for data collection and analysis. Findings reveal that the innovation is contributing to the development of a systemic overview of key processes, reducing the fragmenting effects of the division of work activities within the Tribunal. At least three new organizational routines or capabilities have been developed as a result of the innovation studied: Electronic Court Management, Project Management, and Process Management. The paper contributes to knowledge about court management, a field that has received little research attention in the public administration literature.

Integrating technology to improve the efficiency of qualitative data analysis - A note on methods

Qualitative data analysis (QDA) is often a time-consuming and laborious process usually involving the management of large quantities of textual data. Recently developed computer programs offer great advances in the efficiency of the processes of QDA. In this paper we report on an innovative use of a combination of extant computer software technologies to further enhance and simplify QDA. Used in appropriate circumstances, we believe that this innovation greatly enhances the speed with which theoretical and descriptive ideas can be abstracted from rich, complex, and chaotic qualitative data. © 2001 Human Sciences Press, Inc.

Direct communication versus virtual communication in virtual teams

Several studies suggest that computer-mediated communication can lead to decreases in group effectiveness and reduce satisfaction levels in terms of trust and comfort of its users. Supported by an experiment, where the emotional or affective aspects of communication were tested with the experimentation of two architectures, Direct Communication Architecture (DCA) and the Virtual Communication Architecture (VCA) this paper validates the thesis that, from the users’ perspective, there is no opposition to the acceptance of virtual environments and interfaces for communication, and that these environments are able to cope with the reconfiguration dynamics requirements of virtual teams or client-server relations in a virtual enterprise operation.

A hybrid genetic algorithm for the multi-mode resource-constrained project scheduling

A construction project is a group of discernible tasks or activities that are conduct-ed in a coordinated effort to accomplish one or more objectives. Construction projects re-quire varying levels of cost, time and other resources. To plan and schedule a construction project, activities must be defined sufficiently. The level of detail determines the number of activities contained within the project plan and schedule. So, finding feasible schedules which efficiently use scarce resources is a challenging task within project management. In this context, the well-known Resource Constrained Project Scheduling Problem (RCPSP) has been studied during the last decades. In the RCPSP the activities of a project have to be scheduled such that the makespan of the project is minimized. So, the technological precedence constraints have to be observed as well as limitations of the renewable resources required to accomplish the activities. Once started, an activity may not be interrupted. This problem has been extended to a more realistic model, the multi-mode resource con-strained project scheduling problem (MRCPSP), where each activity can be performed in one out of several modes. Each mode of an activity represents an alternative way of combining different levels of resource requirements with a related duration. Each renewable resource has a limited availability for the entire project such as manpower and machines. This paper presents a hybrid genetic algorithm for the multi-mode resource-constrained pro-ject scheduling problem, in which multiple execution modes are available for each of the ac-tivities of the project. The objective function is the minimization of the construction project completion time. To solve the problem, is applied a two-level genetic algorithm, which makes use of two separate levels and extend the parameterized schedule generation scheme. It is evaluated the quality of the schedules and presents detailed comparative computational re-sults for the MRCPSP, which reveal that this approach is a competitive algorithm.

A genetic algorithm for the resource constrained multi-project scheduling problem

This paper presents a genetic algorithm for the resource constrained multi-project scheduling problem. The chromosome representation of the problem is based on random keys. The schedules are constructed using a heuristic that builds parameterized active schedules based on priorities, delay times, and release dates defined by the genetic algorithm. The approach is tested on a set of randomly generated problems. The computational results validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Project scheduling under multiple resources constraints using a genetic algorithm

The resource constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP) is a difficult problem in combinatorial optimization for which extensive investigation has been devoted to the development of efficient algorithms. During the last couple of years many heuristic procedures have been developed for this problem, but still these procedures often fail in finding near-optimal solutions. This paper proposes a genetic algorithm for the resource constrained project scheduling problem. The chromosome representation of the problem is based on random keys. The schedule is constructed using a heuristic priority rule in which the priorities and delay times of the activities are defined by the genetic algorithm. The approach was tested on a set of standard problems taken from the literature and compared with other approaches. The computational results validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Project scheduling using a competitive genetic algorithm

- The resource constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP) is a difficult problem in combinatorial optimization for which extensive investigation has been devoted to the development of efficient algorithms. During the last couple of years many heuristic procedures have been developed for this problem, but still these procedures often fail in finding near-optimal solutions. This paper proposes a genetic algorithm for the resource constrained project scheduling problem. The chromosome representation of the problem is based on random keys. The schedule is constructed using a heuristic priority rule in which the priorities and delay times of the activities are defined by the genetic algorithm. The approach was tested on a set of standard problems taken from the literature and compared with other approaches. The computational results validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm

A random key based genetic algorithm for the resource constrained project scheduling problem

This paper presents a genetic algorithm for the Resource Constrained Project Scheduling Problem (RCPSP). The chromosome representation of the problem is based on random keys. The schedule is constructed using a heuristic priority rule in which the priorities of the activities are defined by the genetic algorithm. The heuristic generates parameterized active schedules. The approach was tested on a set of standard problems taken from the literature and compared with other approaches. The computational results validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Bridging between programming exercises formats with BabeLO

Assessment plays a vital role in learning. This is certainly the case with assessment of computer programs, both in curricular and competitive learning. The lack of a standard – or at least a widely used format – creates a modern Ba- bel tower made of Learning Objects, of assessment items that cannot be shared among automatic assessment systems. These systems whose interoperability is hindered by the lack of a common format include contest management systems, evaluation engines, repositories of learning objects and authoring tools. A prag- matical approach to remedy this problem is to create a service to convert among existing formats. A kind of translation service specialized in programming prob- lems formats. To convert programming exercises on-the-fly among the most used formats is the purpose of the BabeLO – a service to cope with the existing Babel of Learning Object formats for programming exercises. BabeLO was designed as a service to act as a middleware in a network of systems typically used in auto- matic assessment of programs. It provides support for multiple exercise formats and can be used by: evaluation engines to assess exercises regardless of its format; repositories to import exercises from various sources; authoring systems to create exercises in multiple formats or based on exercises from other sources. This paper analyses several of existing formats to highlight both their differ- ences and their similar features. Based on this analysis it presents an approach to extensible format conversion. It presents also the features of PExIL, the pivotal format in which the conversion is based; and the function definitions of the proposed service – BabeLO. Details on the design and implementation of BabeLO, including the service API and the interfaces required to extend the conversion to a new format, are also provided. To evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of this approach this paper reports on two actual uses of BabeLO: to relocate exercises to a different repository; and to use an evaluation engine in a network of heterogeneous systems.