Choosing international linkage strategies in the electronics industry: the role of multinational experience

This paper examines how different aspects of multinational experience affect the choice of international linkage strategy. Integrating transaction cost and dynamic efficiency considerations, we empirically test the determinants of the choice between acquisitions, joint ventures (JV), and strategic alliances (SA) for the world’s largest electronics corporations in 1993–1997. We show that “country specific experience” increases the probability of commitment intensive linkage modes (such as acquisitions and joint ventures), while a positive effect on strategic alliances is caused by “variety experience”, deriving from the heterogeneity of international contexts, and by “internationalisation experience” reflecting overall involvement in international markets.

The Choice of STIGA Table Tennis Blades : Evidence from China

The purpose of this paper is to investigate how individuals with different characteristics make their choice-decisions when consuming STIGA table tennis blades, which are combinations of various attributes, such as price, control, attack, etc. It is expected that the general trend of choice behavior on this special commodity can be, at least to some extent, revealed. Data were collected using questionnaires sent to registered members of a table tennis club in China. The questionnaires included information and questions about individuals’ monthly income levels, ages, technique styles, etc. A multinomial logit model was then applied to analyze factors determining Chinese consumers’ choice behavior on STIGA table tennis blades. The results indicated that the main element influencing Chinese consumers’ choice of STIGA ping-pong blades was the technique style and other variables did not seem to influence the choice of table tennis blades. These results might be explained by the limited sample size as well as unmeasured and immeasurable factors. Thus, a more extensive research is needed to be conducted in the future.

Interaction between breeding habitat and elevation affects prevalence but not infection intensity of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Brazilian anuran assemblages

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

One step forward: contrasting the effects of Toe clipping and PIT tagging on frog survival and recapture probability

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Decreasing the number of false positives in sequence classification

Abstract Background A large number of probabilistic models used in sequence analysis assign non-zero probability values to most input sequences. To decide when a given probability is sufficient the most common way is bayesian binary classification, where the probability of the model characterizing the sequence family of interest is compared to that of an alternative probability model. We can use as alternative model a null model. This is the scoring technique used by sequence analysis tools such as HMMER, SAM and INFERNAL. The most prevalent null models are position-independent residue distributions that include: the uniform distribution, genomic distribution, family-specific distribution and the target sequence distribution. This paper presents a study to evaluate the impact of the choice of a null model in the final result of classifications. In particular, we are interested in minimizing the number of false predictions in a classification. This is a crucial issue to reduce costs of biological validation. Results For all the tests, the target null model presented the lowest number of false positives, when using random sequences as a test. The study was performed in DNA sequences using GC content as the measure of content bias, but the results should be valid also for protein sequences. To broaden the application of the results, the study was performed using randomly generated sequences. Previous studies were performed on aminoacid sequences, using only one probabilistic model (HMM) and on a specific benchmark, and lack more general conclusions about the performance of null models. Finally, a benchmark test with P. falciparum confirmed these results. Conclusions Of the evaluated models the best suited for classification are the uniform model and the target model. However, the use of the uniform model presents a GC bias that can cause more false positives for candidate sequences with extreme compositional bias, a characteristic not described in previous studies. In these cases the target model is more dependable for biological validation due to its higher specificity.

PCR colorimetric dot-blot assay and clinical pretest probability for diagnosis of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Smear-Negative patients

Abstract Background Smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis (SNPTB) accounts for 30% of Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) cases reported annually in developing nations. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) may provide an alternative for the rapid detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB); however little data are available regarding the clinical utility of PCR in SNPTB, in a setting with a high burden of TB/HIV co-infection. Methods To evaluate the performance of the PCR dot-blot in parallel with pretest probability (Clinical Suspicion) in patients suspected of having SNPTB, a prospective study of 213 individuals with clinical and radiological suspicion of SNPTB was carried out from May 2003 to May 2004, in a TB/HIV reference hospital. Respiratory specialists estimated the pretest probability of active disease into high, intermediate, low categories. Expectorated sputum was examined by direct microscopy (Ziehl-Neelsen staining), culture (Lowenstein Jensen) and PCR dot-blot. Gold standard was based on culture positivity combined with the clinical definition of PTB. Results In smear-negative and HIV subjects, active PTB was diagnosed in 28.4% (43/151) and 42.2% (19/45), respectively. In the high, intermediate and low pretest probability categories active PTB was diagnosed in 67.4% (31/46), 24% (6/25), 7.5% (6/80), respectively. PCR had sensitivity of 65% (CI 95%: 50%–78%) and specificity of 83% (CI 95%: 75%–89%). There was no difference in the sensitivity of PCR in relation to HIV status. PCR sensitivity and specificity among non-previously TB treated and those treated in the past were, respectively: 69%, 43%, 85% and 80%. The high pretest probability, when used as a diagnostic test, had sensitivity of 72% (CI 95%:57%–84%) and specificity of 86% (CI 95%:78%–92%). Using the PCR dot-blot in parallel with high pretest probability as a diagnostic test, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were: 90%, 71%, 75%, and 88%, respectively. Among non-previously TB treated and HIV subjects, this approach had sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of 91%, 79%, 81%, 90%, and 90%, 65%, 72%, 88%, respectively. Conclusion PCR dot-blot associated with a high clinical suspicion may provide an important contribution to the diagnosis of SNPTB mainly in patients that have not been previously treated attended at a TB/HIV reference hospital.

Clinical judgment to estimate pretest probability in the diagnosis of Cushing's syndrome under a Bayesian perspective

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the pretest probability of Cushing's syndrome (CS) diagnosis by a Bayesian approach using intuitive clinical judgment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Physicians were requested, in seven endocrinology meetings, to answer three questions: "Based on your personal expertise, after obtaining clinical history and physical examination, without using laboratorial tests, what is your probability of diagnosing Cushing's Syndrome?"; "For how long have you been practicing Endocrinology?"; and "Where do you work?". A Bayesian beta regression, using the WinBugs software was employed. RESULTS: We obtained 294 questionnaires. The mean pretest probability of CS diagnosis was 51.6% (95%CI: 48.7-54.3). The probability was directly related to experience in endocrinology, but not with the place of work. CONCLUSION: Pretest probability of CS diagnosis was estimated using a Bayesian methodology. Although pretest likelihood can be context-dependent, experience based on years of practice may help the practitioner to diagnosis CS. Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab. 2012;56(9):633-7

Analysis and developments of uncertainty processors for real time flood forecasting

The hydrologic risk (and the hydro-geologic one, closely related to it) is, and has always been, a very relevant issue, due to the severe consequences that may be provoked by a flooding or by waters in general in terms of human and economic losses. Floods are natural phenomena, often catastrophic, and cannot be avoided, but their damages can be reduced if they are predicted sufficiently in advance. For this reason, the flood forecasting plays an essential role in the hydro-geological and hydrological risk prevention. Thanks to the development of sophisticated meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic models, in recent decades the flood forecasting has made a significant progress, nonetheless, models are imperfect, which means that we are still left with a residual uncertainty on what will actually happen. In this thesis, this type of uncertainty is what will be discussed and analyzed. In operational problems, it is possible to affirm that the ultimate aim of forecasting systems is not to reproduce the river behavior, but this is only a means through which reducing the uncertainty associated to what will happen as a consequence of a precipitation event. In other words, the main objective is to assess whether or not preventive interventions should be adopted and which operational strategy may represent the best option. The main problem for a decision maker is to interpret model results and translate them into an effective intervention strategy. To make this possible, it is necessary to clearly define what is meant by uncertainty, since in the literature confusion is often made on this issue. Therefore, the first objective of this thesis is to clarify this concept, starting with a key question: should be the choice of the intervention strategy to adopt based on the evaluation of the model prediction based on its ability to represent the reality or on the evaluation of what actually will happen on the basis of the information given by the model forecast? Once the previous idea is made unambiguous, the other main concern of this work is to develope a tool that can provide an effective decision support, making possible doing objective and realistic risk evaluations. In particular, such tool should be able to provide an uncertainty assessment as accurate as possible. This means primarily three things: it must be able to correctly combine all the available deterministic forecasts, it must assess the probability distribution of the predicted quantity and it must quantify the flooding probability. Furthermore, given that the time to implement prevention strategies is often limited, the flooding probability will have to be linked to the time of occurrence. For this reason, it is necessary to quantify the flooding probability within a horizon time related to that required to implement the intervention strategy and it is also necessary to assess the probability of the flooding time.

FRAX® assessment of osteoporotic fracture probability in Switzerland

A Swiss-specific FRAX model was developed. Patient profiles at increased probability of fracture beyond currently accepted reimbursement thresholds for bone mineral density (BMD) measurement by dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and osteoporosis treatment were identified.

A genetically explicit model of speciation by sensory drive within a continuous population in aquatic environments

BACKGROUND: The sensory drive hypothesis predicts that divergent sensory adaptation in different habitats may lead to premating isolation upon secondary contact of populations. Speciation by sensory drive has traditionally been treated as a special case of speciation as a byproduct of adaptation to divergent environments in geographically isolated populations. However, if habitats are heterogeneous, local adaptation in the sensory systems may cause the emergence of reproductively isolated species from a single unstructured population. In polychromatic fishes, visual sensitivity might become adapted to local ambient light regimes and the sensitivity might influence female preferences for male nuptial color. In this paper, we investigate the possibility of speciation by sensory drive as a byproduct of divergent visual adaptation within a single initially unstructured population. We use models based on explicit genetic mechanisms for color vision and nuptial coloration. RESULTS: We show that in simulations in which the adaptive evolution of visual pigments and color perception are explicitly modeled, sensory drive can promote speciation along a short selection gradient within a continuous habitat and population. We assumed that color perception evolves to adapt to the modal light environment that individuals experience and that females prefer to mate with males whose nuptial color they are most sensitive to. In our simulations color perception depends on the absorption spectra of an individual's visual pigments. Speciation occurred most frequently when the steepness of the environmental light gradient was intermediate and dispersal distance of offspring was relatively small. In addition, our results predict that mutations that cause large shifts in the wavelength of peak absorption promote speciation, whereas we did not observe speciation when peak absorption evolved by stepwise mutations with small effect. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that speciation can occur where environmental gradients create divergent selection on sensory modalities that are used in mate choice. Evidence for such gradients exists from several animal groups, and from freshwater and marine fishes in particular. The probability of speciation in a continuous population under such conditions may then critically depend on the genetic architecture of perceptual adaptation and female mate choice.

Who Is Afraid of School Choice?

This study uses survey data to investigate attitudes among Swiss voters to different models offering more freedom of choice in the educational system. There is a clear opposition to the use of taxpayer money to fund private schools, while free choice between public schools seems to appeal to a majority. The opinions appear to be based on a rational calculation of personal utility. For both types of choice, approval rates are lower for middle to high-income groups and individuals with a teaching qualification. Furthermore, residents of small to medium-sized towns are opposed to more school choice. On the support side, approval rates for private school choice are higher among parents of school-age children and residents in urban areas. The results also indicate differences between the country's language regions, attributable to intercultural differences in what people consider the role of the state.

Improving the dependability of research in personality and social psychology: Recommendations for research and educational practice

In this article, the Society for Personality and Social Psychology (SPSP) Task Force on Publication and Research Practices offers a brief statistical primer and recommendations for improving the dependability of research. Recommendations for research practice include (a) describing and addressing the choice of N (sample size) and consequent issues of statistical power, (b) reporting effect sizes and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), (c) avoiding “questionable research practices” that can inflate the probability of Type I error, (d) making available research materials necessary to replicate reported results, (e) adhering to SPSP’s data sharing policy, (f) encouraging publication of high-quality replication studies, and (g) maintaining flexibility and openness to alternative standards and methods. Recommendations for educational practice include (a) encouraging a culture of “getting it right,” (b) teaching and encouraging transparency of data reporting, (c) improving methodological instruction, and (d) modeling sound science and supporting junior researchers who seek to “get it right.”

The effect of male coloration on female mate choice in closely related Lake Victoria cichlids (Haplochromis nyererei complex)

We studied the effect of male coloration on interspeciÆc female mate choice in two closely related species of haplochromine cichlids from Lake Victoria. The species differ primarily in male coloration. Males of one species are red, those of the other are blue. We re- corded the behavioral responses of females to males of both species in paired male trials under white light and under monochromatic light, under which the interspecific differences in coloration were masked. Females of both species exhibited species-assortative mate choice when colour differences were visible, but chose non-assortatively when colour differences were masked by light conditions. Neither male behaviour nor overall female response frequencies differed between light treatments. That female preferences could be altered by manipulating the perceived colour pattern implies that the colour itself is used in interspecific mate choice, rather than other characters. Hence, male coloration in haplochromine cichlids does underlie sexual selection by direct mate choice, involving the capacity for individual assessment of potential mates by the female. Females of both species responded more frequently to blue males under monochromatic light. Blue males were larger and displayed more than red males. This implies a hierarchy of choice criteria. Females may use male display rates, size, or both when colour is unavailable. Where available, colour has gained dominance over other criteria. This may explain rapid speciation by sexual selection on male coloration, as proposed in a recent mathematical model.

Does the use of mobile devices (tablets and smartphones) affect survey quality and choice behaviour in web surveys?

Web surveys are becoming increasingly popular in survey research including stated preference surveys. Compared with face-to-face, telephone and mail surveys, web surveys may contain a different and new source of measurement error and bias: the type of device that respondents use to answer the survey questions. This is the first study that tests whether the use of mobile devices, tablets or smartphones, affects survey characteristics and stated preferences in a web-based choice experiment. The web survey on expanding renewable energy production in Germany was carried out with 3182 respondents, of which 12% used a mobile device. Propensity score matching is used to account for selection bias in the use of mobile devices for survey completion. We find that mobile device users spent more time than desktop/laptop users to answer the survey. Yet, desktop/laptop users and mobile device users do not differ in acquiescence tendency as an indicator of extreme response patterns. For mobile device users only, we find a negative correlation between screen size and interview length and a positive correlation between screen size and acquiescence tendency. In the choice experiment data, we do not find significant differences in the tendency to choose the status quo option and scale between both subsamples. However, some of the estimates of implicit prices differ, albeit not in a unidirectional fashion. Model results for mobile device users indicate a U-shaped relationship between error variance and screen size. Together, the results suggest that using mobile devices is not detrimental to survey quality.

Gender associated risk factors of aortic aneurysms and dissections

Objectives. Predict who will develop a dissection. To create male and female prediction models using the risk factors: age, ethnicity, hypertension, high cholesterol, smoking, alcohol use, diabetes, heart attack, congestive heart failure, congenital and non-congenital heart disease, Marfan syndrome, and bicuspid aortic valve. ^ Methods. Using 572 patients diagnosed with aortic aneurysms, a model was developed for each of males and females using 80% of the data and then verified using the remaining 20% of the data. ^ Results. The male model predicted the probability of a male in having a dissection (p=0.076) and the female model predicted the probability of a female in having a dissection (p=0.054). The validation models did not support the choice of the developmental models. ^ Conclusions. The best models obtained suggested that those who are at a greater risk of having a dissection are males with non-congenital heart disease and who drink alcohol, and females with non-congenital heart disease and bicuspid aortic valve.^