Estimating the Price of ROCs

The UK government introduced the Renewable Obligation (RO), a system of tradable quotas, to encourage the installation of renewable electricity capacity. Each unit of generation from renewables created a renewable obligation certificate (ROC). Electricity generators must either; earn ROCs through their own production, purchase ROCs in the market or pay the buy-out price to comply with the quota set by the RO. A unique aspect of this regulation is that all entities holding ROCs receive a share of the buy-out fund (the sum of all compliance purchases using the buy-out price). This set-up ensures that the difference between the market price for ROCs and the buy-out price should equal the expected share of the buy-out fund, as regulated entities arbitrage these two compliance options. The expected share of the buy-out fund depends on whether enough renewable generation is available to meet the quota. This analysis tests whether variables associated with renewable generation or electricity demand are correlated with, and thus can help predict, the price of ROCs.

Penalizing Cartels: The Case for Basing Penalties on Price Overcharge

In this paper we set out the welfare economics based case for imposing cartel penalties on the cartel overcharge rather than on the more conventional bases of revenue or profits (illegal gains). To do this we undertake a systematic comparison of a penalty based on the cartel overcharge with three other penalty regimes: fixed penalties; penalties based on revenue, and penalties based on profits. Our analysis is the first to compare these regimes in terms of their impact on both (i) the prices charged by those cartels that do form; and (ii) the number of stable cartels that form (deterrence). We show that the class of penalties based on profits is identical to the class of fixed penalties in all welfare-relevant respects. For the other three types of penalty we show that, for those cartels that do form, penalties based on the overcharge produce lower prices than those based on profit) while penalties based on revenue produce the highest prices. Further, in conjunction with the above result, our analysis of cartel stability (and thus deterrence), shows that penalties based on the overcharge out-perform those based on profits, which in turn out-perform those based on revenue in terms of their impact on each of the following welfare criteria: (a) average overcharge; (b) average consumer surplus; (c) average total welfare.

Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model of Stock Prices

We re-examine the dynamics of returns and dividend growth within the present-value framework of stock prices. We find that the finite sample order of integration of returns is approximately equal to the order of integration of the first-differenced price-dividend ratio. As such, the traditional return forecasting regressions based on the price-dividend ratio are invalid. Moreover, the nonstationary long memory behaviour of the price-dividend ratio induces antipersistence in returns. This suggests that expected returns should be modelled as an AFIRMA process and we show this improves the forecast ability of the present-value model in-sample and out-of-sample.

Disseminated M. avium complex infection in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: declining incidence, improved prognosis and discontinuation of maintenance therapy.

Introduction of potent antiretroviral combination therapy (ART) has reduced overall morbidity and mortality amongst HIV-infected adults. Some prophylactic regimes against opportunistic infections can be discontinued in patients under successful ART. (1) The influence of the availability of ART on incidence and mortality of disseminated M. avium Complex infection (MAC). (2) The safety of discontinuation of maintenance therapy against MAC in patients on ART. The Swiss HIV-Cohort Study, a prospective multicentre study of HIV-infected adults. Patients with a nadir CD4 count below 50 cells/mm3 were considered at risk for MAC and contributed to total follow-up time for calculating the incidence. Survival analysis was performed by using Kaplan Meier and Cox proportional hazards methods. Safety of discontinuation of maintenance therapy was evaluated by review of the medical notes. 398 patients were diagnosed with MAC from 1990 to 1999. 350 had a previous CD4 count below 50 cells/mm3. A total of 3208 patients had a nadir CD4 count of less than 50 cells/mm3 during the study period and contributed to a total follow-up of 6004 person-years. The incidence over the whole study period was 5.8 events per 100 person-years. In the time period of available ART the incidence of MAC was significantly reduced (1.4 versus 8.8 events per 100 person-years, p < 0.001). Being diagnosed after 1995 was the most powerful predictor of better survival (adjusted hazard ratio for death: 0.27; p < 0.001). None of 24 patients discontinuing maintenance therapy while on ART experienced recurrence of MAC during a total follow-up of 56.6 person-years (upper 95% confidence limit 5.3 per 100 person-years). Introducing ART has markedly reduced the risk of MAC for HIV-infected individuals with a history of very low CD4 counts. Survival after diagnosis of MAC has improved after ART became available. In patients responding to ART, discontinuation of maintenance therapy against M. avium may be safe.

Radioimmunotherapy consolidation and rituximab maintenance in the initial treatment of follicular lymphoma.

ABSTRACT: Several reports have documented similar efficacies and tolerable toxicities of radioimmunotherapy (RIT) consolidation and rituximab maintenance after initial R-chemotherapy of follicular lymphoma. The relative merits of these two interventions are currently under discussion. We now raise the question whether both RIT consolidation and rituximab maintenance should be used together aiming to augment the results achievable with R-chemotherapy.

Oil price shocks and labor market fluctuations

We examine the impact of real oil price shocks on labor market flows in the U.S. We first use smooth transition regression (STR) models to investigate to what extent oil prices can be considered as a driving force of labor market fluctuations. Then we develop and calibrate a modified version of Pissarides' (2000) model with energy costs, which we simulate in response to shocks mimicking the behavior of the actual oil price shocks. We find that (i) these shocks are an important driving force of job market flows; (ii) the job finding probability is the main transmission mechanism of such shocks; and (iii) they bring a new amplification mechanism for the volatility and should thus be seen as complementary of labor productivity shocks. Overall we conclude that shocks in oil prices cannot be neglected in explaining cyclical labor adjustments in the U.S.

Aggregate cultures of foetal rat liver cells: development and maintenance of liver gene expression.

Rotation-mediated aggregate cultures of foetal rat liver cells were prepared and grown in a chemically defined medium. Their capacity for cellular organisation and maturation was studied over a culture period of 3 wk by using both morphologic and biochemical criteria. It was found that within each aggregate, distinct liver cell types were present and attained their normal, differentiated phenotype. Parenchymal cells formed small acini with a central lumen. Within the first 2 wk in culture, albumin and ferritin mRNA levels were maintained, while the alpha-fetoprotein mRNA levels decreased, and tyrosine aminotransferase (TAT) gene expression increased. No significant response to glucocorticoids was observed in early cultures, whereas after 3 wk a marked increase in TAT mRNA levels was elicited by dexamethasone and glucagon (additive stimulatory effects). The results show that foetal rat liver cells cultured in a chemically defined medium are able to rearrange themselves into histotypic structures, and display a developmental pattern of gene expression comparable to that of perinatal rat liver in vivo. This culture system offers therefore a useful model to study the development and function of liver cells.

On the maintenance of sex-chromosome polymorphism by sex-antagonistic selection

Complex sex-determination systems are a priori unstable and require specific selective forces for their maintenance. Analytical derivations have suggested that sex-antagonistic selection may play such a role, but this assumed absence of recombination between the sex-determining and sex-antagonistic genes. Using individual-based simulations, and focusing on the sex chromosome and coloration polymorphisms of platy fishes as a case study, we show that the conditions for polymorphism maintenance induce female-biases in primary sex ratios, so that sex-ratio selection makes the system collapse towards male- or female heterogamety as soon as recombinant genotypes appear. However, a polymorphism can still be maintained under scenarios comprising strong sexual selection against dull males, mild natural selection against bright females, and low recombination rates. Though such conditions are plausibly met in natural populations of fishes harbouring such polymorphisms, quantitative empirical evaluations are required to properly test whether sex-antagonistic selection is a causal agent, or if other selective processes are required (such as local mate competition favouring female biased sex ratios).

Best practice in the management of mild-to-moderately active ulcerative colitis and achieving maintenance of remission using mesalazine.

Optimizing treatment goals in ulcerative colitis requires recognizing the needs of patients. It is increasingly recognized that adapting treatment strategies aligned with patient needs can improve patient compliance and consequently minimize relapse rates. Tailoring of treatment strategies can improve not only patient quality of life, and decrease the number harmed by adverse events from more potent drugs, but can also save valuable healthcare costs by avoiding high-cost treatment interventions associated with acute ulcerative colitis. This review will consider several elements of mesalazine management from the patient perspective based on a range of clinical and patient-focused evidence. By highlighting patient preferences in disease management it is envisaged that this review will aid physicians to optimize treatment decisions with the different mesalazine preparations available.

Vedolizumab as induction and maintenance therapy for Crohn's disease.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of vedolizumab, an α4β7 integrin antibody, in Crohn's disease is unknown. METHODS: In an integrated study with separate induction and maintenance trials, we assessed intravenous vedolizumab therapy (300 mg) in adults with active Crohn's disease. In the induction trial, 368 patients were randomly assigned to receive vedolizumab or placebo at weeks 0 and 2 (cohort 1), and 747 patients received open-label vedolizumab at weeks 0 and 2 (cohort 2); disease status was assessed at week 6. In the maintenance trial, 461 patients who had had a response to vedolizumab were randomly assigned to receive placebo or vedolizumab every 8 or 4 weeks until week 52. RESULTS: At week 6, a total of 14.5% of the patients in cohort 1 who received vedolizumab and 6.8% who received placebo were in clinical remission (i.e., had a score on the Crohn's Disease Activity Index [CDAI] of ≤150, with scores ranging from 0 to approximately 600 and higher scores indicating greater disease activity) (P=0.02); a total of 31.4% and 25.7% of the patients, respectively, had a CDAI-100 response (≥100-point decrease in the CDAI score) (P=0.23). Among patients in cohorts 1 and 2 who had a response to induction therapy, 39.0% and 36.4% of those assigned to vedolizumab every 8 weeks and every 4 weeks, respectively, were in clinical remission at week 52, as compared with 21.6% assigned to placebo (P<0.001 and P=0.004 for the two vedolizumab groups, respectively, vs. placebo). Antibodies against vedolizumab developed in 4.0% of the patients. Nasopharyngitis occurred more frequently, and headache and abdominal pain less frequently, in patients receiving vedolizumab than in patients receiving placebo. Vedolizumab, as compared with placebo, was associated with a higher rate of serious adverse events (24.4% vs. 15.3%), infections (44.1% vs. 40.2%), and serious infections (5.5% vs. 3.0%). CONCLUSIONS: Vedolizumab-treated patients with active Crohn's disease were more likely than patients receiving placebo to have a remission, but not a CDAI-100 response, at week 6; patients with a response to induction therapy who continued to receive vedolizumab (rather than switching to placebo) were more likely to be in remission at week 52. Adverse events were more common with vedolizumab. (Funded by Millennium Pharmaceuticals; GEMINI 2 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00783692.).

Maintenance of hepatic nuclear factor 6 in postnatal islets impairs terminal differentiation and function of beta-cells.

The Onecut homeodomain transcription factor hepatic nuclear factor 6 (Hnf6) is necessary for proper development of islet beta-cells. Hnf6 is initially expressed throughout the pancreatic epithelium but is downregulated in endocrine cells at late gestation and is not expressed in postnatal islets. Transgenic mice in which Hnf6 expression is maintained in postnatal islets (pdx1(PB)Hnf6) show overt diabetes and impaired glucose-stimulated insulin secretion (GSIS) at weaning. We now define the mechanism whereby maintenance of Hnf6 expression postnatally leads to beta-cell dysfunction. We provide evidence that continued expression of Hnf6 impairs GSIS by altering insulin granule biosynthesis, resulting in a reduced response to secretagogues. Sustained expression of Hnf6 also results in downregulation of the beta-cell-specific transcription factor MafA and a decrease in total pancreatic insulin. These results suggest that downregulation of Hnf6 expression in beta-cells during development is essential to achieve a mature, glucose-responsive beta-cell.

Characterization of subpopulations (clones and subclones) of the 21 SF strain of Trypanosoma cruzi after long lasting maintenance in the laboratory

Several studies have shown a clonal structure of Trypanosoma cruzi and its possible correlation with the behavioral heterogeneity of the parasite strains. In the present study, the 21 SF strain, that have been maintained in laboratory by successive passages in mice, for more than 15 years, showing a stability of biological and isoenzymic characteristics has been cloned, with the objective of establishing the characters of its clones and subclones. With the technique of isolation of a single parasite from the blood of infected mice, 5 clones and 14 subclones have been obtained. After four passages into mice, inoculum of 10(5) was obtained for each clone and subclone and inoculated into mice weighing 10 to 12 g. These were used for the study of the biological behavior of the clones: evolution of parasitemia, morphology of blood forms and host mortality. For isoenzymic characterization, the clones and subclones were analyzed for ALAT, ASAT, GPI and PGM enzymes. Results have shown that the 5 clones and the 14 subclones disclosed a biological behavior similar to the parental strain, with minor variability of the parasitemic profiles and also the same isoenzymic patterns. These results confirm the stability of the 21 SF strain and indicate a clonal homogeneity of its populations. This is compatible with the hypothesis that the T. cruzi strains represent an equilibrium of either homogenous or heterogeneous populations.

What if there was a stronger pharmaceutical price competition in Spain? When regulation has a similar effect to collusion

This paper examines statins competition in the Spanish pharmaceutical market, where prices are highly regulated, and simulates a situation in which there is unrestricted price competition. A nested logit demand model is estimated with a panel of monthly data for pharmaceuticals prescribed from 1997 to 2005. The simulation indicates that the regulation of prices is similar in its effects to cooperation among producers, since the regulated prices are close to those that would be observed in a scenario of perfect collusion. Freedom to set prices and a regulatory framework with appropriate incentives would result in a general reduction in prices and may make the current veiled competition in the form of discounts to pharmacists become more visible. The decrease in prices would be partially offset by an increase in consumption but the net effect would be an overall decrease in expenditure. The counterfactual set-up would also lead to important changes in the market shares of both manufacturers and active ingredients, and a reversal of generic drugs. Therefore, pro-competitive regulation would be welfare-enhancing but would imply winners and losers.