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The pharmacokinetic profile of imatinib has been assessed in healthy subjects and in population studies among thousands of patients with CML or GIST. Imatinib is rapidly and extensively absorbed from the GI tract, reaching a peak plasma concentration (Cmax) within 1-4 h following administration. Imatinib bioavailability is high (98%) and independent of food intake. Imatinib undergoes rapid and extensive distribution into tissues, with minimal penetration into the central nervous system. In the circulation, it is approximately 95% bound to plasma proteins, principally α1-acid glycoprotein (AGP) and albumin. Imatinib undergoes metabolism in the liver via the cytochrome P450 enzyme system (CYP), with CYP3A4 being the main isoenzyme involved. The N-desmethyl metabolite CGP74588 is the major circulating active metabolite. The typical elimination half-life for imatinib is approximately 14-22 h. Imatinib is characterized by large inter-individual pharmacokinetic variability, which reflects in a wide spread of concentrations observed under standard dosage. Besides adherence, several factors have been shown to influence this variability, especially demographic characteristics (sex, age, body weight and disease diagnosis), blood count characteristics, enzyme activity (mainly CYP3A4), drug interactions, activity of efflux transporters and plasma levels of AGP. Additionally, recent retrospective studies have shown that drug exposure, reflected in either the area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) or more conveniently the trough level (Cmin), correlates with treatment outcomes. Increased toxicity has been associated with high plasma levels, and impaired clinical efficacy with low plasma levels. While no upper concentration limit has been formally established, a lower limit for imatinib Cmin of about 1000 ng/mL has been proposed repeatedly for improving outcomes in CML and GIST patients. Imatinib is licensed for use in chronic phase CML and GIST at a fixed dose of 400 mg once daily (600 mg in some other indications) despite substantial pharmacokinetic variability caused by both genetic and acquired factors. The dose can be modified on an individual basis in cases of insufficient response or substantial toxic effects. Imatinib would, however, meet traditional criteria for a therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) program: long-term therapy, measurability, high inter-individual but restricted intra-individual variability, limited pharmacokinetic predictability, effect of drug interactions, consistent association between concentration and response, suggested therapeutic threshold, reversibility of effect and absence of early markers of efficacy and toxic effects. Large-scale, evidence-based assessments of drug concentration monitoring are therefore still warranted for the personalization of imatinib treatment.

Spatial relationship between the atmospheric circulation and the precipitation measured in the western Swiss Alps by means of the analogue method

An adaptation technique based on the synoptic atmospheric circulation to forecast local precipitation, namely the analogue method, has been implemented for the western Swiss Alps. During the calibration procedure, relevance maps were established for the geopotential height data. These maps highlight the locations were the synoptic circulation was found of interest for the precipitation forecasting at two rain gauge stations (Binn and Les Marécottes) that are located both in the alpine Rhône catchment, at a distance of about 100 km from each other. These two stations are sensitive to different atmospheric circulations. We have observed that the most relevant data for the analogue method can be found where specific atmospheric circulation patterns appear concomitantly with heavy precipitation events. Those skilled regions are coherent with the atmospheric flows illustrated, for example, by means of the back trajectories of air masses. Indeed, the circulation recurrently diverges from the climatology during days with strong precipitation on the southern part of the alpine Rhône catchment. We have found that for over 152 days with precipitation amount above 50 mm at the Binn station, only 3 did not show a trajectory of a southerly flow, meaning that such a circulation was present for 98% of the events. Time evolution of the relevance maps confirms that the atmospheric circulation variables have significantly better forecasting skills close to the precipitation period, and that it seems pointless for the analogue method to consider circulation information days before a precipitation event as a primary predictor. Even though the occurrence of some critical circulation patterns leading to heavy precipitation events can be detected by precursors at remote locations and 1 week ahead (Grazzini, 2007; Martius et al., 2008), time extrapolation by the analogue method seems to be rather poor. This would suggest, in accordance with previous studies (Obled et al., 2002; Bontron and Obled, 2005), that time extrapolation should be done by the Global Circulation Model, which can process atmospheric variables that can be used by the adaptation method.

Legal europeanization as legal transformation : some insights from Swiss 'outer Europe'

The "Europeanization" of non-EU countries' laws is predominantly seen as an "export" of the EU acquis, especially in the case of so-called "quasi-member" states such as Switzerland. Based on an examination of the Swiss experience, this paper highlights the flaws of this conceptualization: the Europeanization of Swiss Law is a highly differentiated phenomenon, encompassing several forms of approximation to EU Law. All of these forms fall short of an "export" of norms, and result in the creation of something new: a "Europeanized law" that is similar to, but qualitatively different from, EU Law. Another drawback of the "export" metaphor is the emphasis it places on the isomorphism of positive legislation. Europeanization goes deeper than that. As shown in this paper, it is a process of transformation involving not only positive law, but also legal thinking. The Swiss case demonstrates how significant such deeper transformations can be: the Europeanization of positive law has induced an alteration of the traditional canon of legal interpretation. It also demonstrates how problematic such transformations can be: the above-mentioned alteration has not given rise to a new and universally accepted canon of interpretation. This reflects the tension between the need for clear "rules of reference" for EU legal materials - which are required in order to restore coherence and predictability to an extensively Europeanized legal system - and the reluctance to give a legal value to foreign legal materials - which is rooted in a traditional understanding of the concept of "law". Such tension, in turn, shows what deep and difficult transformations are required in order to establish a viable model of legal integration outside supranational structures.

Guiding students through competence-based educational material

Student guidance is an always desired characteristic in any educational system, butit represents special difficulty if it has to be deployed in an automated way to fulfilsuch needs in a computer supported educational tool. In this paper we explorepossible avenues relying on machine learning techniques, to be included in a nearfuture -in the form of a tutoring navigational tool- in a teleeducation platform -InterMediActor- currently under development. Since no data from that platform isavailable yet, the preliminary experiments presented in this paper are builtinterpreting every subject in the Telecommunications Degree at Universidad CarlosIII de Madrid as an aggregated macro-competence (following the methodologicalconsiderations in InterMediActor), such that marks achieved by students can beused as data for the models, to be replaced in a near future by real data directlymeasured inside InterMediActor. We evaluate the predictability of students qualifications, and we deploy a preventive early detection system -failure alert-, toidentify those students more prone to fail a certain subject such that correctivemeans can be deployed with sufficient anticipation.

Population pharmacokinetics of ganciclovir in solid-organ transplant recipients receiving oral valganciclovir.

Valganciclovir (VGC) is an oral prodrug of ganciclovir (GCV) recently introduced for prophylaxis and treatment of cytomegalovirus infection. Optimal concentration exposure for effective and safe VGC therapy would require either reproducible VGC absorption and GCV disposition or dosage adjustment based on therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). We examined GCV population pharmacokinetics in solid organ transplant recipients receiving oral VGC, including the influence of clinical factors, the magnitude of variability, and its impact on efficacy and tolerability. Nonlinear mixed effect model (NONMEM) analysis was performed on plasma samples from 65 transplant recipients under VGC prophylaxis or treatment. A two-compartment model with first-order absorption appropriately described the data. Systemic clearance was markedly influenced by the glomerular filtration rate (GFR), patient gender, and graft type (clearance/GFR = 1.7 in kidney, 0.9 in heart, and 1.2 in lung and liver recipients) with interpatient and interoccasion variabilities of 26 and 12%, respectively. Body weight and sex influenced central volume of distribution (V(1) = 0.34 liter/kg in males and 0.27 liter/kg in females [20% interpatient variability]). No significant drug interaction was detected. The good prophylactic efficacy and tolerability of VGC precluded the demonstration of any relationship with GCV concentrations. In conclusion, this analysis highlights the importance of thorough adjustment of VGC dosage to renal function and body weight. Considering the good predictability and reproducibility of the GCV profile after treatment with oral VGC, routine TDM does not appear to be clinically indicated in solid-organ transplant recipients. However, GCV plasma measurement may still be helpful in specific clinical situations.

Reducing the clinical burden of ranibizumab treatment for neovascular age-related macular degeneration using an individually planned regimen.

AIMS: The purpose of this study was to clinically validate an individually planned treatment regimen for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD), termed, observe and plan. This regimen was based on the predictability of an individual's need for retreatment and aimed to reduce the clinical burden, while obtaining good functional results. METHODS: This was a prospective case series that included 104 patients (115 eyes) with treatment-naive nAMD. Following three loading doses of ranibizumab, monthly observation visits allowed the disease recurrence interval to be determined. The recurrence interval was reduced by 2 weeks to give the retreatment interval for the next three injections. Periodical control visits (at least every 6 months) allowed the effectiveness of the treatment to be assessed and individual intervals adjusted. RESULTS: Mean visual acuity (VA) improved by 8.7 and 9.8 letters in months 3 and 12, respectively. The mean number of injections during the 12-month study was 7.8, while the mean number of ophthalmic examinations between months 3 and 12 was 3.97. The mean treatment interval after the loading doses was 1.97 months. CONCLUSIONS: The observe-and-plan regimen significantly improved VA. This was obtained with fewer clinic visits compared with other regimens, which could ease the burden of nAMD treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Commission cantonale (VD) d'éthique de la recherché Clinique, Université de Lausanne, Protocole 351/11.

Measuring strategic uncertainty in coordination games

This paper explores three aspects of strategic uncertainty: its relation to risk, predictability of behavior and subjective beliefs of players. In a laboratory experiment we measure subjects certainty equivalents for three coordination games and one lottery. Behavior in coordination games is related to risk aversion, experience seeking, and age.From the distribution of certainty equivalents we estimate probabilities for successful coordination in a wide range of games. For many games, success of coordination is predictable with a reasonable error rate. The best response to observed behavior is close to the global-game solution. Comparing choices in coordination games with revealed risk aversion, we estimate subjective probabilities for successful coordination. In games with a low coordination requirement, most subjects underestimate the probability of success. In games with a high coordination requirement, most subjects overestimate this probability. Estimating probabilistic decision models, we show that the quality of predictions can be improved when individual characteristics are taken into account. Subjects behavior is consistent with probabilistic beliefs about the aggregate outcome, but inconsistent with probabilistic beliefs about individual behavior.

Abundance and temporal distribution of Gonioterma exquisita Duckworth (Lepidoptera, Elachistidae, Stenomatinae) on Byrsonima pachyphylla Griseb. (Malpighiaceae) in the Brazilian Cerrado

The seasonal characteristics of the Cerrado region strongly influence food resource predictability and vegetal tissue nutritional content. The aims of this work were to record the abundance and temporal distribution of Gonioterma exquisita Duckworth, 1964 (Lepidoptera, Elachistidae) and its relation with phenological, physical, and chemical traits of the host plant Byrsonima pachyphylla Griseb. (Malpighiaceae). Four nutritional quality parameters were determined for new and mature leaves: gross protein and nitrogen content, dry matter, and in vitro digestibility. We inspected 200 plants per month, searching for G. exquisita caterpillars. About 35.8% of the 2,400 plants inspected presented caterpillars, with an abundance peak in the wet season. Caterpillar abundance was positively correlated with mature leaf availability, their food resource. Although mature leaves presented lower gross protein and nitrogen contents than new leaves, this difference was small during the abundance peak of G. exquisita.

Decoding stimulus-related information from single-trial EEG responses based on voltage topographies

Neuroimaging studies typically compare experimental conditions using average brain responses, thereby overlooking the stimulus-related information conveyed by distributed spatio-temporal patterns of single-trial responses. Here, we take advantage of this rich information at a single-trial level to decode stimulus-related signals in two event-related potential (ERP) studies. Our method models the statistical distribution of the voltage topographies with a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), which reduces the dataset to a number of representative voltage topographies. The degree of presence of these topographies across trials at specific latencies is then used to classify experimental conditions. We tested the algorithm using a cross-validation procedure in two independent EEG datasets. In the first ERP study, we classified left- versus right-hemifield checkerboard stimuli for upper and lower visual hemifields. In a second ERP study, when functional differences cannot be assumed, we classified initial versus repeated presentations of visual objects. With minimal a priori information, the GMM model provides neurophysiologically interpretable features - vis à vis voltage topographies - as well as dynamic information about brain function. This method can in principle be applied to any ERP dataset testing the functional relevance of specific time periods for stimulus processing, the predictability of subject's behavior and cognitive states, and the discrimination between healthy and clinical populations.

Two-year outcome of an observe-and-plan regimen for neovascular age-related macular degeneration: how to alleviate the clinical burden with maintained functional results.

PurposeThe purpose of this study was to report the 2-year outcome of an individually tailored 'observe-and-plan' treatment regimen for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD), and to investigate its clinical value in terms of functional outcome. This regimen aimed to reduce the clinical burden (visits) by employing individually fixed injection intervals, based on the predictability of an individual's need for retreatment.MethodsThis prospective case series included 104 patients (115 eyes) with nAMD. Following three loading doses of ranibizumab, the disease recurrence interval was determined in monthly observation visits. Retreatment was applied in a series of three injections with individually fixed intervals (2 weeks shorter than the recurrence interval), combined with periodic adjustment of the intervals. The allowed injection intervals in treatment plans ranged from 1 to 3 months. If there was no recurrence at 3 months, the patient could change to monitoring alone.ResultsMean visual acuity (VA) improved by 8.7, 9.7, and 9.2 letters at months 3, 12, and 24, respectively. The mean number of injections was 7.8 and 5.8 during years 1 and 2, respectively, whereas the mean number of ophthalmic examinations was 4.0 and 2.9, respectively. The mean treatment interval (after the loading doses) was 2.0 months during year 1, and 2.2 months during year 2.ConclusionThe observe-and-plan regimen significantly improved and maintained VA over the course of 2 years. This favourable functional outcome was achieved with fewer clinic visits compared with other regimens. Therefore, this observe-and-plan regimen has the potential to alleviate the clinical burden of nAMD treatment.Eye advance online publication, 7 November 2014; doi:10.1038/eye.2014.258.

Multitask learning of environmental spatial data

The present research deals with an application of artificial neural networks for multitask learning from spatial environmental data. The real case study (sediments contamination of Geneva Lake) consists of 8 pollutants. There are different relationships between these variables, from linear correlations to strong nonlinear dependencies. The main idea is to construct a subsets of pollutants which can be efficiently modeled together within the multitask framework. The proposed two-step approach is based on: 1) the criterion of nonlinear predictability of each variable ?k? by analyzing all possible models composed from the rest of the variables by using a General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) as a model; 2) a multitask learning of the best model using multilayer perceptron and spatial predictions. The results of the study are analyzed using both machine learning and geostatistical tools.

Changes in the Structure of a Nigerian Soil under Different Land Management Practices

Quantification of soil physical quality (SPQ) and pore size distribution (PSD) can assist understanding of how changes in land management practices influence dynamics of soil structure, and this understanding could greatly improve the predictability of soil physical behavior and crop yield. The objectives of this study were to measure the SPQ index under two different land management practices (the continuous arable cropping system and natural bush fallow system), and contrast the effects of these practices on the structure of PSD using soil water retention data. Soil water retention curves obtained from a pressure chamber were fitted to van Genuchten’s equation, setting m (= 1-1/n). Although values for soil bulk density were high, soils under the continuous arable cropping system had good SPQ, and maintained the capacity to support root development. However, soils under the natural bush fallow system had a worse structure than the continuous arable system, with restrictions in available water capacity. These two management systems had different PSDs. Results showed the inferiority of the natural bush fallow system with no traffic restriction (which is the common practice) in relation to the continuous arable cropping system in regard to physical quality and structure.

Economic and legal analysis of mandatory non-recourse mortgages with applications to Spain

“The liquidity crisis of the Spanish banks is largely due to the lack of confidence of foreign investors and, therefore, the changes that occur in the legislation should not affect the credibility, stability, legal certainty, predictability that markets expect”.Sergio Nasarre (2011)In the current situation of economic crisis, many people have found they can no longer pay back the mortgage loans that were granted to them in order to purchase a dwelling. It is for this reason that, in light of the economic, political and social problems this poses, our paper studies the state of the Spanish real-estate system and of foreclosure, paying special attention to the solution that has been proposed recently as the best option for debtors that cannot make their mort-gage payments: non-recourse mortgaging. We analyze this proposal from legal and economic perspectives in order to fully understand the effects that this change could imply. At the same time, this paper will also examine several alternatives we believe would ameliorate the situation of mortgage-holders, among them legal reforms, mortgage insurance, and non-recourse mortgaging itself.

The effect of obesity, age, puberty and gender on resting metabolic rate in children and adolescents.

During puberty fat-free mass (FFM) and fat mass (FM) change quickly and these changes are influenced by sex and obesity. Since it is not completely known how these changes affect resting metabolic rate (RMR), the aim of the present study was to investigate the effect of body composition, age, sex and pubertal development of postabsorptive RMR in 9.5- to 16.5- year-old obese and non-obese children. Postabsorptive RMR was measured in a sample of 371 pre- and postpubertal children comprising 193 males (116 non-obese and 77 obese) and 178 females (119 non-obese and 59 obese). RMR was assessed by indirect calorimetry using a ventilated hood system for 45 min after an overnight fast. Body composition (FFM and FM) was estimated from skinfold measurements. The mean (+/- SD) RMR was significantly (P < 0.001) lower in non-obese (males: 5600 +/- 972 kJ/24 h; females: 5112 +/- 632 kJ/24 h) than in obese (males: 7223 +/- 1220 kJ/24 h; females: 6665 +/- 1106 kJ/24 h) children. This difference became non-significant when RMR was adjusted for body composition (FFM+FM). However, the difference between the genders still remained significant (control male: 6118 +/- 507, control female: 5652 +/- 507, P < 0.001; obese male: 6256 +/- 507, obese female: 5818 +/- 507 kJ/24 h, P < 0.001). The main determinant of RMR was FFM. In the whole cohort. FFM explained 79.8% of the variation in RMR, followed by age, gender and FM adding further 3.8%, 1.1% and 0.8% to the predictability of RMR, respectively. No significant contribution for study group (obese, non-obese), pubertal stage, or fat distribution was found in the regression for RMR. The adjusted value of RMR (for FFM and FM) slightly, but significantly (P < 0.01) decreased between the age of 10-16 years, demonstrating the important effect of age on RMR. CONCLUSIONS: The resting metabolic rate of obese and control children is not different when adjusted for body composition. The main determinant of RMR is the fat-free mass, however, age, gender and fat mass are also significant factors. Pubertal development and fat distribution do not influence RMR independently from the changes in body composition.

Dynamic models of energy allocation and investment

In dynamic models of energy allocation, assimilated energy is allocated to reproduction, somatic growth, maintenance or storage, and the allocation pattern can change with age. The expected evolutionary outcome is an optimal allocation pattern, but this depends on the environment experienced during the evolutionary process and on the fitness costs and benefits incurred by allocating resources in different ways. Here we review existing treatments which encompass some of the possibilities as regards constant or variable environments and their predictability or unpredictability, and the ways in which production rates and mortality rates depend on body size and composition and age and on the pattern of energy allocation. The optimal policy is to allocate resources where selection pressures are highest, and simultaneous allocation to several body subsystems and reproduction can be optimal if these pressures are equal. This may explain balanced growth commonly observed during ontogeny. Growth ceases at maturity in many models; factors favouring growth after maturity include non-linear trade-offs, variable season length, and production and mortality rates both increasing (or decreasing) functions of body size. We cannot yet say whether these are sufficient to account for the many known cases of growth after maturity and not all reasonable models have yet been explored. Factors favouring storage are also reviewed.