Exploring the effect of political risks in large infrastructure projects in politically unstable countries using a probabilistic modelling approach

This research aims to explore and identify political risks on a large infrastructure project in an exaggerated environment to ascertain whether sufficient objective information can be gathered by project managers to utilise risk modelling techniques. During the study, the author proposes a new definition of political risk; performs a detailed project study of the Neelum Jhelum Hydroelectric Project in Pakistan; implements a probabilistic model using the principle of decomposition and Bayes probabilistic theorem and answers the question: was it possible for project managers to obtain all the relevant objective data to implement a probabilistic model?

Tornado damage and impacts on nuclear facilities in the United States

This report provides an overview of the tornado impact on the safe operation and shutdown of nuclear power plants in the United States. The motivation for this review stems from the damage and failure of the Fukushima nuclear power plant on March 11, 2011. That disaster warrants comparison of the safety measures in place within the global nuclear power industry.

Towards formal specification of a distributed computing system

Onboard spacecraft computing system is a case of a functionally distributed system that requires continuous interaction among the nodes to control the operations at different nodes. A simple and reliable protocol is desired for such an application. This paper discusses a formal approach to specify the computing system with respect to some important issues encountered in the design and development of a protocol for the onboard distributed system. The issues considered in this paper are concurrency, exclusiveness and sequencing relationships among the various processes at different nodes. A 6-tuple model is developed for the precise specification of the system. The model also enables us to check the consistency of specification and deadlock caused due to improper specification. An example is given to illustrate the use of the proposed methodology for a typical spacecraft configuration. Although the theory is motivated by a specific application the same may be applied to other distributed computing system such as those encountered in process control industries, power plant control and other similar environments.

A cyclostationary multi-domain analysis of fluid instability in Kaplan turbines

Hydraulic instabilities represent a critical problem for Francis and Kaplan turbines, reducing their useful life due to increase of fatigue on the components and cavitation phenomena. Whereas an exhaustive list of publications on computational fluid-dynamic models of hydraulic instability is available, the possibility of applying diagnostic techniques based on vibration measurements has not been investigated sufficiently, also because the appropriate sensors seldom equip hydro turbine units. The aim of this study is to fill this knowledge gap and to exploit fully, for this purpose, the potentiality of combining cyclostationary analysis tools, able to describe complex dynamics such as those of fluid-structure interactions, with order tracking procedures, allowing domain transformations and consequently the separation of synchronous and non-synchronous components. This paper will focus on experimental data obtained on a full-scale Kaplan turbine unit, operating in a real power plant, tackling the issues of adapting such diagnostic tools for the analysis of hydraulic instabilities and proposing techniques and methodologies for a highly automated condition monitoring system. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.

Studies on Aerosol Particle Emission, Sampling and Authenticity

Emissions of coal combustion fly ash through real scale ElectroStatic Precipitators (ESP) were studied in different coal combustion and operation conditions. Sub-micron fly-ash aerosol emission from a power plant boiler and the ESP were determined and consequently the aerosol penetration, as based on electrical mobility measurements, thus giving thereby an indication for an estimate on the size and the maximum extent that the small particles can escape. The experimentals indicate a maximum penetration of 4% to 20 % of the small particles, as counted on number basis instead of the normally used mass basis, while simultaneously the ESP is operating at a nearly 100% collection efficiency on mass basis. Although the size range as such seems to appear independent of the coal, of the boiler or even of the device used for the emission control, the maximum penetration level on the number basis depends on the ESP operating parameters. The measured emissions were stable during stable boiler operation for a fired coal, and the emissions seemed each to be different indicating that the sub-micron size distribution of the fly-ash could be used as a specific characteristics for recognition, for instance for authenticity, provided with an indication of known stable operation. Consequently, the results on the emissions suggest an optimum particle size range for environmental monitoring in respect to the probability of finding traces from the samples. The current work embodies also an authentication system for aerosol samples for post-inspection from any macroscopic sample piece. The system can comprise newly introduced new devices, for mutually independent use, or, for use in a combination with each other, as arranged in order to promote the sampling operation length and/or the tag selection diversity. The tag for the samples can be based on naturally occurring measures and/or added measures of authenticity in a suitable combination. The method involves not only military related applications but those in civil industries as well. Alternatively to the samples, the system can be applied to ink for note printing or other monetary valued papers, but also in a filter manufacturing for marking fibrous filters.

Computer simulation of H and He effects in fusion reactor materials

Fusion power is an appealing source of clean and abundant energy. The radiation resistance of reactor materials is one of the greatest obstacles on the path towards commercial fusion power. These materials are subject to a harsh radiation environment, and cannot fail mechanically or contaminate the fusion plasma. Moreover, for a power plant to be economically viable, the reactor materials must withstand long operation times, with little maintenance. The fusion reactor materials will contain hydrogen and helium, due to deposition from the plasma and nuclear reactions because of energetic neutron irradiation. The first wall divertor materials, carbon and tungsten in existing and planned test reactors, will be subject to intense bombardment of low energy deuterium and helium, which erodes and modifies the surface. All reactor materials, including the structural steel, will suffer irradiation of high energy neutrons, causing displacement cascade damage. Molecular dynamics simulation is a valuable tool for studying irradiation phenomena, such as surface bombardment and the onset of primary damage due to displacement cascades. The governing mechanisms are on the atomic level, and hence not easily studied experimentally. In order to model materials, interatomic potentials are needed to describe the interaction between the atoms. In this thesis, new interatomic potentials were developed for the tungsten-carbon-hydrogen system and for iron-helium and chromium-helium. Thus, the study of previously inaccessible systems was made possible, in particular the effect of H and He on radiation damage. The potentials were based on experimental and ab initio data from the literature, as well as density-functional theory calculations performed in this work. As a model for ferritic steel, iron-chromium with 10% Cr was studied. The difference between Fe and FeCr was shown to be negligible for threshold displacement energies. The properties of small He and He-vacancy clusters in Fe and FeCr were also investigated. The clusters were found to be more mobile and dissociate more rapidly than previously assumed, and the effect of Cr was small. The primary damage formed by displacement cascades was found to be heavily influenced by the presence of He, both in FeCr and W. Many important issues with fusion reactor materials remain poorly understood, and will require a huge effort by the international community. The development of potential models for new materials and the simulations performed in this thesis reveal many interesting features, but also serve as a platform for further studies.

Free convection about cylinders of elliptic cross section embedded in a porous medium

Numerical solutions are presented for the free convection boundary layers over cylinders of elliptic cross section embedded in a fluid-saturated porous medium. The transformed conservation equations of the nonsimilar boundary layers are solved numerically by an efficient finite-difference method. The theory was applied to a number of cylinders and the results compared very well with published analytical solutions. The results are of use in the design of underground electrical cables, power plant steam, and water distribution lines, among others.

Nonlinear Dynamics of Beams with Stochastic Parameter Variations

The aim of this paper is to investigate the steady state response of beams under the action of random support motions. The study is of relevance in the context of earthquake response of extended land based structures such as pipelines and long span bridges, and, secondary systems such as piping networks in nuclear power plant installations. The following complicating features are accounted for in the response analysis: (a) differential support motions: this is characterized in terms of cross power spectral density functions associated with distinct support motions, (b) nonlinear support conditions, and (c) stochastically inhomogeneous stiffness and mass variations of the beam structure; questions on non-Gaussian models for these variations are considered. The method of stochastic finite elements is combined with equivalent linearization technique and Monte Carlo simulations to obtain response moments.

Estimation of design basis earthquake using region-specific M-max, for the NPP site at Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu, India

The objective of the paper is to estimate Safe Shutdown Earthquake (SSE) and Operating/Design Basis Earthquake (OBE/DBE) for the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) site located at Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu, India. The NPP is located at 12.558 degrees N, 80.175 degrees E and a 500 km circular area around NPP site is considered as `seismic study area' based on past regional earthquake damage distribution. The geology, seismicity and seismotectonics of the study area are studied and the seismotectonic map is prepared showing the seismic sources and the past earthquakes. Earthquake data gathered from many literatures are homogenized and declustered to form a complete earthquake catalogue for the seismic study area. The conventional maximum magnitude of each source is estimated considering the maximum observed magnitude (M-max(obs)) and/or the addition of 0.3 to 0.5 to M-max(obs). In this study maximum earthquake magnitude has been estimated by establishing a region's rupture character based on source length and associated M-max(obs). A final source-specific M-max is selected from the three M-max values by following the logical criteria. To estimate hazard at the NPP site, ten Ground-Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) valid for the study area are considered. These GMPEs are ranked based on Log-Likelihood (LLH) values. Top five GMPEs are considered to estimate the peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the site. Maximum PGA is obtained from three faults and named as vulnerable sources to decide the magnitudes of OBE and SSE. The average and normalized site specific response spectrum is prepared considering three vulnerable sources and further used to establish site-specific design spectrum at NPP site.

A trade-off between maxima in efficiency and specific work output of super- and trans-critical CO2 Brayton cycles

Several operational aspects for thermal power plants in general are non-intuitive and involve simultaneous optimization of a number of operational parameters. In the case of solar operated power plants, it is even more difficult due to varying heat source temperatures induced by variability in insolation levels. This paper introduces a quantitative methodology for load regulation of a CO2 based Brayton cycle power plant using the `thermal efficiency and specific work output' coordinate system. The analysis shows that a transcritical CO2 cycle offers more flexibility under part load performance than the supercritical cycle in case of non-solar power plants. However, for concentrated solar power, where efficiency is important, supercritical CO2 cycle fares better than transcritical CO2 cycle. A number of empirical equations relating heat source temperature, high side pressure with efficiency and specific work output are proposed which could assist in generating control algorithms. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

ELEVATION OF HEAT REJECTION TEMPERATURE IN TRANSCRITICAL CONDENSING CYCLES USING CO2+PROPANE MIXTURES

In this paper, a detailed thermodynamic performance analysis of a transcritical condensing (TC) cycle is performed with pure CO2 and a blend of 48.5 % propane with 51.5 % CO2 as working fluids. A realistic thermodynamic model is used incorporating irreversibilities in turbo-machineries and heat exchangers. The Key finding is that the addition of propane elevates the heat rejection temperature, but does not impair any of the performance indicators. Such a fluid may be useful for power generation in concentrated solar power applications by using which a hike of up to 2 % can be realized in the thermal efficiency of a power plant.

Long Term Dynamics in CO2 Allowance Prices and Carbon Capture Investments

In this paper we analyse the behaviour of the EU market for CO2 emission allowances; specifically, we focus on the contracts maturing in the Kyoto Protocol's second period of application (2008 to 2012). We calibrate the underlying parameters for the allowance price in the long run and we also calibrate those from the Spanish wholesale electricity market. This information is then used to assess the option to install a carbon capture and storage (CCS) unit in a coal-fired power plant. We use a two-dimensional binomial lattice where costs and profits are valued and the optimal investment time is determined. In other words, we study the trigger allowance prices above which it is optimal to install the capture unit immediately. We further analyse the impact of several variables on the critical prices, among them allowance price volatility and a hypothetical government subsidy. We conclude that, at current permit prices, from a financial point of view, immediate installation does not seem justified. This need not be the case, though, if carbon market parameters change dramatically and/or a specific policy to promote these units is adopted.

Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

The mechanical effects of water flow on fish eggs and larvae

The impact of mechanical stresses upon ichthyoplankton entrained in power plant cooling systems has long been considered negligible. Arguments and evidence exist, however, to show that such a supposition is not universally true, especially in nuclear power plants. The mechanisms of mechanical damage can be detailed in terms of pressure change, acceleration, and shear stress with in the fluid flow field. Laboratory efforts to quantify the effects of mechanical stress have been very sparse. A well-planned bioassay is urgently needed. (PDF has 11 pages.)

An Analysis of 1974 Striped Bass spawning success in the Potomac Estuary.

ABSTRACT: The Potomac River Fisheries Program is concerned with the longterm effects of power plant ichthyoplankton entrainment on striped bass(hforone smatilis) recruitment. Since striped bass population fluctuations are determined strongly by environmental conditions during spawning and early development, assessment of power plant-induced ichthyoplankton mortalities must consider the mechanisms controlling spawning success. Ichthyoplankton distributions for 1974, spawning population abundance and fecundity, and environmental conditions were considered for analysis. Loss of the early part of the spawn (including the peak) accounted for the highest mortalities among ichthyoplankton. This was due to the proximity of these distributions to the salt wedge where transport into regions un!ivorable to survival seems to have occurred. The later, successful portion of the spawn occurred further upstream, in fresh tidal portions of the river. The sequence of events Ieading to an assessment of factors affecting ichthyoplankton surnnl are evaluated. Due to high early mortalities in ichthyoplankton, 1974 spawning success was low, and a poor yearclass is projected.