L’illusion des signaux pénaux : l’effet tendancieux de l’impunité différentielle

Réalisé sous la co-direction de Pierre Tremblay

Mercado laboral calificado en Colombia: Estudio sobre el desequilibrio entre oferta y demanda de trabajo para los años 2020 y 2030

El propósito básico de esta investigación es identificar los desajustes (déficits o superávits) no estructurales entre la oferta y demanda de trabajo en Colombia para los años 2020 y 2030, así como interpretar los hallazgos y proponer elementos de estrategia para las empresas a fin de mitigar los efectos adversos del desajuste sobre su capacidad para atraer y retener talento. El argumento central del proyecto consiste en sostener que en un escenario no mayor a los 10 años la oferta de trabajo calificado en Colombia no será suficiente para (i) equilibrar el mercado y (ii) atender la demanda agregada de trabajo, debido a los cambios generacionales en la realidad demográfica del país, el bajo nivel de preparación de la fuerza laboral disponible y los altos índices de informalidad de los trabajadores y las empresas. Dentro de los resultados se presenta una proyección del comportamiento del mercado de trabajo, así como la magnitud del desequilibrio entre los agentes del mercado. Este estudio aplicado es una propuesta cuantitativa de aproximación a la crisis de talento que se revisa en otros estudios. Es un precedente sólido para profundizar con otros enfoques el futuro del trabajo en Colombia.

Evidence for interplay between genes and parenting on infant temperament in the first year of life: monoamine oxidase A polymorphism moderates effects of maternal sensitivity on infant anger proneness

Background The low expression polymorphism of the MAOA gene in interaction with adverse environments (G × E) is associated with antisocial behaviour disorders. These have their origins in early life, but it is not known whether MAOA G × E occurs in infants. We therefore examined whether MAOA G × E predicts infant anger proneness, a temperamental dimension associated with later antisocial behaviour disorders. In contrast to previous studies, we examined MAOA G × E prospectively using an observational measure of a key aspect of the infant environment, maternal sensitivity, at a specified developmental time point. Methods In a stratified epidemiological cohort recruited during pregnancy, we ascertained MAOA status (low vs. high expression alleles) from the saliva of 193 infants, and examined specific predictions to maternal report of infant temperament at 14 months from maternal sensitivity assessed at 29 weeks of age. Results Analyses, weighted to provide general population estimates, indicated a robust interaction between MAOA status and maternal sensitivity in the prediction of infant anger proneness (p = .003) which became stronger once possible confounders for maternal sensitivity were included in the model (p = .0001). The interaction terms were similar in males (p = .010) and females (p = .016), but the effects were different as a consequence of an additional sex of infant by maternal sensitivity interaction. Conclusions This prospective study provides the first evidence of moderation by the MAOA gene of effects of parenting on infant anger proneness, an important early risk for the development of disruptive and aggressive behaviour disorders.

Simulação do sistema de esgotamento sanitário de Ponta Negra- Natal: mitigação dos riscos ambientais e estratégia de manutenção preditiva

The simulation of SES-Natal Ponta Negra: mitigation of environmental risks and predictive maintenance strategy was developed in the context of several operational irregularities in the pumping stations and sewage systems in the system Ponta Negra. Thus, the environmental risks and complaints against the company due to overflows of sewage into the public thoroughfare became common. This neighborhood has shown in recent years an increase of resident higher than the initial expectation of growth. In this sense presumed the large population growth and generation of sewers higher than expected, associated to the use of corrective maintenance and misuse of the system may be the main causes of operational failures occurring in the SES. This study aimed at analyzing the hydraulic behavior of SES Ponta Negrathrough numerical simulation of its operation associated to future scenarios of occupation. The SES Ponta Negra has a long lengthof collection networks and 6 pumping stations interconnected, being EE 1, 2, 4 coastal way, and beach Shopping interconnected EE3 to receives all sewers pumped from the rest pumping station and pumped to the sewage treatment station of neighborhood which consists of a facultative pond followed by three maturation ponds with disposal of treated effluent into infiltration ditches. Oncethey are connected with each other, the study was conducted considering the days and times of higher inflow for all lifts. Furthermore, with the aim of measuring the gatherer network failures were conducted data survey of on the networks. Thephysical and operational survey data was conducted between January/2011 and janeiro/2012. The simulation of the SES was developed with the aim ofdemonstrating its functioning, eithercurrently and in the coming years, based in population estimates and sewage flow. The collected data represents the current framework of the pumping stations of the SES Ponta Negra and served as input to the model developed in MS Excel ® spreadsheet which allowed simulating the behavior of SES in future scenarios. The results of this study show thatBeach Shopping Pumping Station is actually undersized and presents serious functioning problemsthatmay compromise the environmental quality of surrounding area. The other pumping stations of the system will reach itsmaximum capacity between 2013 and 2015, although the EE1 and EE3 demonstrateoperation capacity, even precariously, until 2017. Moreover, it was observed that the misuse of the network system, due to the input of both garbage and stormwater, are major factors of failures that occur in the SES. Finally, it was found that the corrective maintenance appliance, rather than predictive,has proven to beinefficient because of the serious failuresin the system, causing damage to the environment and health risks to users

Mortalidade de adolescentes em área urbana da região Sudeste do Brasil, 1984-1993

Analisa-se a mortalidade de adolescentes no Município de Botucatu, Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, no período de 1984 a 1993, segundo dois subgrupos (10 a 14 e 15 a 19 anos), sexo, ocupação e causas de óbito. Os dados de óbitos foram obtidos no Setor de Estatística do Centro de Saúde-Escola. As estimativas populacionais foram calculadas com base nos censos demográficos. Observou-se variação dos coeficientes de mortalidade nos diferentes anos e maior mortalidade no grupo masculino de 15 a 19 anos, atingindo tanto estudantes como trabalhadores. Houve predomínio de causas externas de mortalidade, principalmente acidentes de trânsito e ferimento por arma de fogo, exigindo averigüação de seus determinantes e o desenvolvimento de programas de saúde destinados aos adolescentes, suas famílias e à sociedade, considerando-se que as causas de morte são evitáveis e preveníveis.

Parrot populations and habitat use in and around two lowland Atlantic forest reserves, Brazil

We estimated population sizes of parrots in a large (Sooretama/Linhares) and a small (Porto Seguro) lowland Atlantic forest reserve, and examined their habitat associations within the reserves, and their use of forest fragments. In Sooretama, most species had estimated populations between 1000 and 20,000 individuals, but in the smaller reserve population densities were low and all but one species had population estimates < 500. Two Amazons, including the 'Endangered' Amazona rhodocorytha, were strongly linked to primary forests whereas the 'Vulnerable' Pyrrhura cruentata was associated with non-pristine forest. There was considerable movement of parrots between the Sooretama reserve and the surrounding country with Amazona species tending to fly into the reserve during the mornings, and the macaw Propyrrhura maracana flying out. Other species, notably P. cruentata and P. leucotis, were never recorded away from the reserve. Most parrot populations in the region are likely to be small, and the substantial populations around Sooretama make this reserve a parrot stronghold. It is crucial that fire, illegal logging and parrot capture are adequately controlled within Sooretama, and there is a strong argument for extending conservation management efforts to areas immediately outside the reserve. (C) 2000 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.

Foraging activity and demographic patterns of two termite species (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae) living in urban landscapes in southeastern Brazil

Coptotermes gestroi and Heterotermes tenuis (Isoptera: Rbinotermitidae) are important pests in southeastern Brazil causing serious economic damage. In this study we determined the demographic patterns and foraging activity of these species using mark-release-recapture and the consumption of wooden stakes. Using both the weighted mean and Lincoln index methods, population estimates ranged from ≈ 0.57 to 1.99 million individuals for C. gestroi and from ≈ 0.20 to 1.37 million for H. tenuis. Territory size of the colonies ranged from 172.5 to 5235 m 2 for C. gestroi and from 16 to 40 m 2 for H. tenuis. Our results also indicate that foraging activity was dependent on the minimum temperature; however, the existence of a compensation strategy in the foraging activities may permit foragers to exploit food sources under different environmental conditions.

Fecundidad = Fertility

Incluye CD-ROM

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Jamaica

Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon in which the earth‘s climate goes through cycles of warming and cooling; these changes usually take place incrementally over millennia. Over the past century, there has been an anomalous increase in global temperature, giving rise to accelerated climate change. It is widely accepted that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as industries have contributed significantly to the increase in global temperatures. The existence and survival of all living organisms is predicated on the ability of the environment in which they live not only to provide conditions for their basic needs but also conditions suitable for growth and reproduction. Unabated climate change threatens the existence of biophysical and ecological systems on a planetary scale. The present study aims to examine the economic impact of climate change on health in Jamaica over the period 2011-2050. To this end, three disease conditions with known climate sensitivity and importance to Jamaican public health were modelled. These were: dengue fever, leptospirosis and gastroenteritis in children under age 5. Historical prevalence data on these diseases were obtained from the Ministry of Health Jamaica, the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, the Climate Studies Group Mona, University of the West Indies Mona campus, and the Meteorological Service of Jamaica. Data obtained spanned a twelve-year period of 1995-2007. Monthly data were obtained for dengue and gastroenteritis, while for leptospirosis, the annual number of cases for 1995-2005 was utilized. The two SRES emission scenarios chosen were A2 and B2 using the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM) global climate model to predict climate variables for these scenarios. A business as usual (BAU) scenario was developed using historical disease data for the period 2000-2009 (dengue fever and gastroenteritis) and 1995-2005 (leptospirosis) as the reference decades for the respective diseases. The BAU scenario examined the occurrence of the diseases in the absence of climate change. It assumed that the disease trend would remain unchanged over the projected period and the number of cases of disease for each decade would be the same as the reference decade. The model used in the present study utilized predictive empirical statistical modelling to extrapolate the climate/disease relationship in time, to estimate the number of climate change-related cases under future climate change scenarios. The study used a Poisson regression model that considered seasonality and lag effects to determine the best-fit model in relation to the diseases under consideration. Zhang and others (2008), in their review of climate change and the transmission of vector-borne diseases, found that: ―Besides climatic variables, few of them have included other factors that can affect the transmission of vector-borne disease….‖ (Zhang 2008) Water, sanitation and health expenditure are key determinants of health. In the draft of the second communication to IPCC, Jamaica noted the vulnerability of public health to climate change, including sanitation and access to water (MSJ/UNDP, 2009). Sanitation, which in its broadest context includes the removal of waste (excreta, solid, or other hazardous waste), is a predictor of vector-borne diseases (e.g. dengue fever), diarrhoeal diseases (such as gastroenteritis) and zoonoses (such as leptospirosis). In conceptualizing the model, an attempt was made to include non-climate predictors of these climate-sensitive diseases. The importance of sanitation and water access to the control of dengue, gastroenteritis and leptospirosis were included in the Poisson regression model. The Poisson regression model obtained was then used to predict the number of disease cases into the future (2011-2050) for each emission scenario. After projecting the number of cases, the cost associated with each scenario was calculated using four cost components. 1. Treatment cost morbidity estimate. The treatment cost for the number of cases was calculated using reference values found in the literature for each condition. The figures were derived from studies of the cost of treatment and represent ambulatory and non-fatal hospitalized care for dengue fever and gastroenteritis. Due to the paucity of published literature on the health care cost associated with leptospirosis, only the cost of diagnosis and antibiotic therapy were included in the calculation. 2. Mortality estimates. Mortality estimates are recorded as case fatality rates. Where local data were available, these were utilized. Where these were unavailable, appropriate reference values from the literature were used. 3. Productivity loss. Productivity loss was calculated using a human capital approach, by multiplying the expected number of productive days lost by the caregiver and/or the infected person, by GDP per capita per day (US$ 14) at 2008 GDP using 2008 US$ exchange rates. 4. No-option cost. The no-option cost refers to adaptation strategies for the control of dengue fever which are ongoing and already a part of the core functions of the Vector Control Division of the Ministry of Health, Jamaica. An estimated US$ 2.1 million is utilized each year in conducting activities to prevent the post-hurricane spread of vector borne diseases and diarrhoea. The cost includes public education, fogging, laboratory support, larvicidal activities and surveillance. This no-option cost was converted to per capita estimates, using population estimates for Jamaica up to 2050 obtained from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN, 2006) and the assumption of one expected major hurricane per decade. During the decade 2000-2009, Jamaica had an average inflation of 10.4% (CIA Fact book, last updated May 2011). This average decadal inflation rate was applied to the no-option cost, which was inflated by 10% for each successive decade to adjust for changes in inflation over time.

Proyecciones de población de cinco países sudamericanos: comparación con América Latina

Publicación bilingüe (Español e inglés)

Distribuição e conservação de aves migratórias neárticas da ordem Charadriiformes (famílias Charadriidae e Scolopacidae) no Brasil

Apesar dos esforços de pesquisa nos últimos anos, muitos dos aspectos das migrações dos charadrídeos e escolopacídeos no Brasil permanecem desconhecidos. A maioria dos estudos em escala local ou regional revela a necessidade de uma síntese das informações em escala espacial adequada para facilitar a detecção dos grandes padrões de movimento destas espécies no país. Desta forma, esta tese teve como objetivo geral identificar os padrões de distribuição e migrações das espécies de aves das famílias Charadriidae e Scolopacidae que se reproduzem no hemisfério norte e usam o território brasileiro durante as suas migrações, visando desenvolver estratégias para a conservação do grupo. Como objetivos específicos, caracterizar as principais rotas migratórias para estas espécies; identificar as áreas críticas para a conservação utilizando os critérios propostos pela metodologia das AIAs e ACBs; avaliar o estado de conservação atual das áreas críticas para a conservação destas espécies de acordo ao Sistema Nacional de Unidades de Conservação; avaliar se as áreas críticas são parte das áreas prioritárias para a conservação da biodiversidade brasileira; aplicar os critérios da Convenção de Ramsar e da WHSRN para identificar áreas críticas para conservação destas espécies. A base de dados foi estabelecida a partir de levantamento bibliográfico; consultas às coleções científicas de museus brasileiros e estrangeiros; utilização de bases de dados de recuperações de anilhas brasileiras e norte-americanas; dados cedidos por pesquisadores do Brasil, Argentina e Estados Unidos; dados de campo coletados pessoalmente no Pantanal (MS), litoral dos estados do Maranhão e Rio Grande do Sul. Entre os principais resultados, 19 das 24 espécies possuem um conjunto importante de dados, com as demais sendo ocasionais ou com poucas informações. Há uma maior concentração de dados na região costeira do país, com menor cobertura de áreas do interior. A Amazônia Ocidental mostrou-se a menos conhecida nos aspectos abordados, embora seja a via de passagem para algumas das espécies analisadas. O litoral entre a foz do Amazonas e São Luiz, no Maranhão foi a principal área de concentração em termos numéricos. A costa do Rio Grande do Sul foi o segundo local com maior destaque nas análises. Quinze espécies foram registradas em todos os meses do ano, demonstrando que nem todos os indivíduos migram anualmente para o hemisfério norte. Considerando as rotas globais, 8 espécies utilizam a rota do Atlântico e 10 a rota do Mississipi ou do centro da América do Norte. As outras 6 possivelmente utilizam-se das duas rotas. O conhecimento na utilização das 5 rotas propostas por Antas (1983) durante a migração sul-norte indicou que algumas espécies têm registros no interior da Amazônia, período em que possivelmente seus habitats estariam inundados. O padrão de chegada na migração norte-sul no Brasil é entre agosto e outubro, com incremento a partir de setembro. A migração sul-norte ocorre entre meados de março e abril na maioria das espécies. Durante o período não reprodutivo existe um padrão de distribuição ao longo da costa utilizado por 9 espécies, outro continental para 7 espécies no interior e ainda um terceiro, difuso, encontrado em 5 espécies que se distribuem tanto na costa quanto no interior do país. Foram identificadas 260 áreas críticas importantes para as espécies avaliadas. Observou-se que 72% das ACBs identificadas estão fora do SNUC. A sobreposição das ACBs com as Áreas Prioritárias para a Conservação revelou que 46% das primeiras estão sem indicação de importância neste programa. São elegíveis para os critérios da Convenção Ramsar 69 ACBs, enquanto 65 podem ser inseridas no programa da WHSRN. Entre as principais conclusões, o conhecimento de processos biológicos fundamentais à manutenção do ciclo de vida e o curso de suas migrações anuais, de parâmetros relacionados à mudas de penas, ganho de massa corporal, razão sexual e etária das populações migrantes são aspectos ainda insuficientemente detalhados para estas espécies no Brasil, e mesmo na América do Sul, assim como a necessidade de pesquisas que possam gerar estimativas e tendências populacionais, uma vez que em escala global várias destas espécies apresentam declínio populacional.

O programa Saúde da Família e a promoção do envelhecimento saudável

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

An insight into the populations of blainville's and curvier's beaked whales off El Hierro (Canary Islands)

Trabajo realizado por: Reyes, C., Schiavi, A., Aguilar del Soto,

Pregnancy outcomes following recovery from acquired thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura.

Pregnancy may precipitate acute episodes of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP), but pregnancy outcomes in women who have recovered from acquired TTP are not well documented. We analyzed pregnancy outcomes following recovery from TTP associated with acquired, severe ADAMTS13 deficiency (ADAMTS13 activity <10%) in women enrolled in the Oklahoma TTP-HUS Registry from 1995 to 2012. We also systematically searched for published reports on outcomes of pregnancies following recovery from TTP associated with acquired, severe ADAMTS13 deficiency. Ten women in the Oklahoma Registry had 16 subsequent pregnancies from 1999 to 2013. Two women had recurrent TTP, which occurred 9 and 29 days postpartum. Five of 16 pregnancies (31%, 95% confidence interval, 11%-59%) in 3 women were complicated by preeclampsia, a frequency greater than US population estimates (2.1%-3.2%). Thirteen (81%) pregnancies resulted in normal children. The literature search identified 382 articles. Only 6 articles reported pregnancies in women who had recovered from TTP associated with acquired, severe ADAMTS13 deficiency, describing 10 pregnancies in 8 women. TTP recurred in 6 pregnancies. Conclusions: With prospective complete follow-up, recurrent TTP complicating subsequent pregnancies in Oklahoma patients is uncommon, but the occurrence of preeclampsia may be increased. Most pregnancies following recovery from TTP in Oklahoma patients result in normal children.

Time trends in avoidable cancer mortality in Switzerland and neighbouring European countries 1996-2010.

QUESTION UNDER STUDY What are the trends in avoidable cancer mortality in Switzerland and neighbouring countries? METHODS Mortality data and population estimates 1996-2010 were obtained from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office for Switzerland and the World Health Organization Mortality Database (http://www.who.int/healthinfo/mortality_data/en/) for Austria, Germany, France and Italy. Age standardised mortality rates (ASMRs, European standard) per 100 000 person-years were calculated for the population <75 years old by sex for the following groups of cancer deaths: (1) avoidable through primary prevention; (2) avoidable through early detection and treatment; (3) avoidable through improved treatment and medical care; and (4) remaining cancer deaths. To assess time trends in ASMRs, estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated. RESULTS In Switzerland and neighbouring countries cancer mortality in persons <75 years old continuously decreased 1996-2010. Avoidable cancer mortality decreased in all groups of avoidable cancer deaths in both sexes, with one exception. ASMRs for causes avoidable through primary prevention increased in females in all countries (in Switzerland from 16.2 to 20.3 per 100 000 person years, EAPC 2.0 [95% CI 1.4 to 2.6]). Compared with its neighbouring countries, Switzerland showed the lowest rates for all groups of avoidable cancer mortality in males 2008-2010. CONCLUSION Overall avoidable cancer mortality decreased, indicating achievements in cancer care and related health policies. However, increasing trends in avoidable cancer mortality through primary prevention for females suggest there is a need in Switzerland and its European neighbouring countries to improve primary prevention.