Il ruolo delle idee e del loro cambiamento nei processi di policy making universitario nel mondo anglosassone dagli anni ottanta ad oggi. I casi di Inghilterra e Nuova Zelanda in prospettiva comparata

THE TITLE OF MY THESIS IS THE ROLE OF THE IDEAS AND THEIR CHANGE IN HIGHER EDUCATION POLICY-MAKING PROCESSES FROM THE EIGHTIES TO PRESENT-DAY: THE CASES OF ENGLAND AND NEW ZEALAND IN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE UNDER A THEORETICAL POINT OF VIEW, THE AIM OF MY WORK IS TO CARRY OUT A RESEARCH MODELLED ON THE CONSTRUCTIVIST THEORY. IT FOCUSES ON THE ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF IDEAS ON THE PROCESSES OF POLICY MAKING BY MEANS OF EPISTEMIC COMMUNITIES, THINK TANKS AND VARIOUS SOCIOECONOMIC CONTEXTS THAT MAY HAVE PLAYED A KEY ROLE IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE DIFFERENT PATHS. FROM MY POINT OF VIEW IDEAS CONSTITUTE A PRIORITY RESEARCH FIELD WHICH IS WORTH ANALYSING SINCE THEIR ROLE IN POLICY MAKING PROCESSES HAS BEEN TRADITIONALLY RATHER UNEXPLORED. IN THIS CONTEXT AND WITH THE AIM OF DEVELOPING A RESEARCH STRAND BASED ON THE ROLE OF IDEAS, I INTEND TO CARRY ON MY STUDY UNDER THE PERSPECTIVE OF CHANGE. DEPENDING ON THE DATA AND INFORMATION THAT I COLLECTED I EVALUATED THE WEIGHT OF EACH OF THESE VARIABLES AND MAYBE OTHERS SUCH AS THE INSTITUTIONS AND THE INDIVIDUAL INTERESTS, WHICH MAY HAVE INFLUENCED THE FORMATION OF THE POLICY MAKING PROCESSES. UNDER THIS LIGHT, I PLANNED TO ADOPT THE QUALITATIVE METHODOLOGY OF RESEARCH WHICH I BELIEVE TO BE VERY EFFECTIVE AGAINST THE MORE DIFFICULT AND POSSIBLY REDUCTIVE APPLICATION OF QUANTITIVE DATA SETS. I RECKON THEREFORE THAT THE MOST APPROPRIATE TOOLS FOR INFORMATION PROCESSING INCLUDE CONTENT ANALYSIS, AND IN-DEPTH INTERVIEWS TO PERSONALITIES OF THE POLITICAL PANORAMA (ÉLITE OR NOT) WHO HAVE PARTICIPATED IN THE PROCESS OF HIGHER EDUCATION REFORM FROM THE EIGHTIES TO PRESENT-DAY. THE TWO CASES TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION SURELY SET AN EXAMPLE OF RADICAL REFORM PROCESSES WHICH HAVE OCCURRED IN QUITE DIFFERENT CONTEXTS DETERMINED BY THE SOCIOECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS AND THE TRAITS OF THE ÉLITE. IN NEW ZEALAND THE DESCRIBED PROCESS HAS TAKEN PLACE WITH A STEADY PACE AND A GOOD GRADE OF CONSEQUANTIALITY, IN LINE WTH THE REFORMS IN OTHER STATE DIVISIONS DRIVEN BY THE IDEAS OF THE NEW PUBLIC MANAGEMENT. CONTRARILY IN ENGLAND THE REFORMATIVE ACTION OF MARGARET THATCHER HAS ACQUIRED A VERY RADICAL CONNOTATION AS IT HAS BROUGHT INTO THE AMBIT OF HIGHER EDUCATION POLICY CONCEPTS LIKE EFFICIENCY, EXCELLENCE, RATIONALIZATION THAT WOULD CONTRAST WITH THE GENERALISTIC AND MASS-ORIENTED IDEAS THAT WERE FASHIONABLE DURING THE SEVENTIES. THE MISSION I INTEND TO ACCOMPLISH THORUGHOUT MY RESEARCH IS TO INVESTIGATE AND ANALYSE INTO MORE DEPTH THE DIFFERENCES THAT SEEM TO EMERGE FROM TWO CONTEXTS WHICH MOST OF THE LITERATURE REGARDS AS A SINGLE MODEL: THE ANGLO-SAXON MODEL. UNDER THIS LIGHT, THE DENSE ANALYSIS OF POLICY PROCESSES ALLOWED TO BRING OUT BOTH THE CONTROVERSIAL AND CONTRASTING ASPECTS OF THE TWO REALITIES COMPARED, AND THE ROLE AND WEIGHT OF VARIABLES SUCH AS IDEAS (MAIN VARIABLE), INSTITUTIONAL SETTINGS AND INDIVIDUAL INTERESTS ACTING IN EACH CONTEXT. THE CASES I MEAN TO ATTEND PRESENT PECULIAR ASPECTS WORTH DEVELOPING AN IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS, AN OUTLINE OF WHICH WILL BE PROVIDED IN THIS ABSTRACT. ENGLAND THE CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT, SINCE 1981, INTRODUCED RADICAL CHANGES IN THE SECTOR OF HIGHER EDUCATION: FIRST CUTTING DOWN ON STATE FUNDINGS AND THEN WITH THE CREATION OF AN INSTITUTION FOR THE PLANNING AND LEADERSHIP OF THE POLYTECHNICS (NON-UNIVERSITY SECTOR). AFTERWARDS THE SCHOOL REFORM BY MARGARET THATCHER IN 1988 RAISED TO A GREAT STIR ALL OVER EUROPE DUE TO BOTH ITS CONSIDERABLE INNOVATIVE IMPRINT AND THE STRONG ATTACK AGAINST THE PEDAGOGY OF THE ‘ACTIVE’ SCHOOLING AND PROGRESSIVE EDUCATION, UNTIL THEN RECOGNIZED AS A MERIT OF THE BRITISH PUBLIC SCHOOL. IN THE AMBIT OF UNIVERSITY EDUCATION THIS REFORM, TOGETHER WITH SIMILAR MEASURES BROUGHT IN DURING 1992, PUT INTO PRACTICE THE CONSERVATIVE PRINCIPLES THROUGH A SERIES OF ACTIONS THAT INCLUDED: THE SUPPRESSION OF THE IRREMOVABILITY PRINCIPLE FOR UNIVERSITY TEACHERS; THE INTRODUCTION OF STUDENT LOANS FOR LOW-INCOME STUDENTS AND THE CANCELLATION OF THE CLEAR DISTINCTION BETWEEN UNIVERSITIES AND POLYTECHNICS. THE POLICIES OF THE LABOUR MAJORITY OF MR BLAIR DID NOT QUITE DIVERGE FROM THE CONSERVATIVES’ POSITION. IN 2003 BLAIR’S CABINET RISKED TO BECOME A MINORITY RIGHT ON THE OCCASION OF AN IMPORTANT UNIVERSITY REFORM PROPOSAL. THIS PROPOSAL WOULD FORESEE THE AUTONOMY FOR THE UNIVERSITIES TO RAISE UP TO 3.000 POUNDS THE ENROLMENT FEES FOR STUDENTS (WHILE FORMERLY THE CEILING WAS 1.125 POUNDS). BLAIR HAD TO FACE INTERNAL OPPOSITION WITHIN HIS OWN PARTY IN RELATION TO A MEASURE THAT, ACCORDING TO THE 150 MPS PROMOTERS OF AN ADVERSE MOTION, HAD NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE ELECTORAL PROGRAMME AND WOULD RISK CREATING INCOME-BASED DISCRIMINATION AMONG STUDENTS. AS A MATTER OF FACT THE BILL FOCUSED ON THE INTRODUCTION OF VERY LOW-INTEREST STUDENT LOANS TO BE SETTLED ONLY WHEN THE STUDENT WOULD HAVE FOUND A REMUNERATED OCCUPATION (A SYSTEM ALREADY PROVIDED FOR BY THE AUSTRALIAN LEGISLATION). NEW ZEALAND CONTRARILY TO MANY OTHER COUNTRIES, NEW ZEALAND HAS ADOPTED A VERY WIDE VISION OF THE TERTIARY EDUCATION. IT INCLUDES IN FACT THE FULL EDUCATIONAL PROGRAMME THAT IS INTERNATIONALLY RECOGNIZED AS THE POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION. SHOULD WE SPOTLIGHT A PECULIARITY OF THE NEW ZEALAND TERTIARY EDUCATION POLICY THEN IT WOULD BE ‘CHANGE’. LOOKING AT THE REFORM HISTORY RELATED TO THE TERTIARY EDUCATION SYSTEM, WE CAN CLEARLY IDENTIFY FOUR ‘SUB-PERIODS’ FROM THE EIGHTIES TO PRESENT-DAY: 1. BEFORE THE 80S’: AN ELITARIAN SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY LOW PARTICIPATION RATES. 2. BETWEEN MID AND LATE 80S’: A TREND TOWARDS THE ENLARGEMENT OF PARTICIPATION ASSOCIATED TO A GREATER COMPETITION. 3. 1990-1999: A FUTHER STEP TOWARDS A COMPETITIVE MODEL BASED ON THE MARKET-ORIENTED SYSTEM. 4. FROM 2000 TO TODAY: A CONTINUOUS EVOLUTION TOWARDS A MORE COMPETITIVE MODEL BASED ON THE MARKET-ORIENTED SYSTEM TOGETHER WITH A GROWING ATTENTION TO STATE CONTROL FOR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATION. AT PRESENT THE GOVERNMENT OF NEW ZEALAND OPERATES TO STRENGHTHEN THIS PROCESS, PRIMARILY IN RELATION TO THE ROLE OF TERTIARY EDUCATION AS A STEADY FACTOR OF NATIONAL WALFARE, WHERE PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT CONTRIBUTES ACTIVELY TO THE GROWTH OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC SYSTEM5. THE CASES OF ENGLAND AND NEW ZEALAND ARE THE FOCUS OF AN IN-DEPTH INVESTIGATION THAT STARTS FROM AN ANALYSIS OF THE POLICIES OF EACH NATION AND DEVELOP INTO A COMPARATIVE STUDY. AT THIS POINT I ATTEMPT TO DRAW SOME PRELIMINARY IMPRESSIONS ON THE FACTS ESSENTIALLY DECRIBED ABOVE. THE UNIVERSITY POLICIES IN ENGLAND AND NEW ZEALAND HAVE BOTH UNDERGONE A SIGNIFICANT REFORMATORY PROCESS SINCE THE EARLY EIGHTIES; IN BOTH CONTEXTS THE IMPORTANCE OF IDEAS THAT CONSTITUTED THE BASE OF POLITICS UNTIL 1980 WAS QUITE RELEVANT. GENERALLY SPEAKING, IN BOTH CASES THE PRE-REFORM POLICIES WERE INSPIRED BY EGALITARIANISM AND EXPANSION OF THE STUDENT POPULATION WHILE THOSE BROUGHT IN BY THE REFORM WOULD PURSUE EFFICIENCY, QUALITY AND COMPETITIVENESS. UNDOUBTEDLY, IN LINE WITH THIS GENERAL TENDENCY THAT REFLECTS THE HYPOTHESIS PROPOSED, THE TWO UNIVERSITY SYSTEMS PRESENT SEVERAL DIFFERENCES. THE UNIVERSITY SYSTEM IN NEW ZEALAND PROCEEDED STEADILY TOWARDS THE IMPLEMENTATION OF A MANAGERIAL CONCEPTION OF TERTIARY EDUCATION, ESPECIALLY FROM 1996 ONWARDS, IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE REFORMATORY PROCESS OF THE WHOLE PUBLIC SECTOR. IN THE UNITED KINGDOM, AS IN THE REST OF EUROPE, THE NEW APPROACH TO UNIVERSITY POLICY-MAKING HAD TO CONFRONT A DEEP-ROOTED TRADITION OF PROGRESSIVE EDUCATION AND THE IDEA OF EDUCATION EXPANSION THAT IN FACT DOMINATED UNTIL THE EIGHTIES. FROM THIS VIEW POINT THE GOVERNING ACTION OF MARGARET THATCHER GAVE RISE TO A RADICAL CHANGE THAT REVOLUTIONIZED THE OBJECTIVES AND KEY VALUES OF THE WHOLE EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM, IN PARTICULAR IN THE HIGHER EDUCATION SECTOR. IDEAS AS EFFICIENCY, EXCELLENCE AND CONTROL OF THE PERFORMANCE BECAME DECISIVE. THE LABOUR CABINETS OF BLAIR DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF CONSERVATIVE REFORMS. THIS APPEARS TO BE A FOCAL POINT OF THIS STUDY THAT OBSERVES HOW ALSO IN NEW ZEALAND THE REFORMING PROCESS OCCURRED TRANSVERSELY DURING PROGRESSIVE AND CONSERVATIVE ADMINISTRATIONS. THE PRELIMINARY IMPRESSION IS THEREFORE THAT IDEAS DEEPLY MARK THE REFORMATIVE PROCESSES: THE AIM OF MY RESEARCH IS TO VERIFY TO WHICH EXTENT THIS STATEMENT IS TRUE. IN ORDER TO BUILD A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYLIS, FURTHER SIGNIFICANT FACTORS WILL HAVE TO BE INVESTIGATED: THE WAY IDEAS ARE PERCEIVED AND IMPLEMENTED BY THE DIFFERENT POLITICAL ELITES; HOW THE VARIOUS SOCIOECONOMIC CONTEXTS INFLUENCE THE REFORMATIVE PROCESS; HOW THE INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURES CONDITION THE POLICY-MAKING PROCESSES; WHETHER INDIVIDUAL INTERESTS PLAY A ROLE AND, IF YES, TO WHICH EXTENT.

The shaping of foreign policy: Vietnamese grand strategy after the Cold War

This study examines the case of Vietnam and uses the method of process tracing to explore the sources of foreign policy choice and change. Foreign policy is derived from grand strategy, which refers to the full package of a state’s domestic and foreign policies. I argue that a state’s grand strategy results from the interaction of four factors—its society’s historical experience, social motivation, international power, and political contest among domestic groups. Grand strategies emerge as a response to perceived shifts in the balance of international economic, political, and military power. However, this is not to say that international pressures and incentives are translated into foreign policy. Rather, pressures and incentives are given meaning by worldviews, which reflect a society’s historical experiences of its place in the international system at traumatic junctures of its encounter with the outside world. Strategic changes in foreign policy follow what I call the “strategic algorithm,” which incorporates four major mechanisms—balancing against threat, bandwagoning with power, learning, and survival by transformation. This case study generates hypotheses for a theory of strategic choice, a theory of foreign policy transformation, and a theory of grand strategy emergence.

Dealing with bad guys: actor- and process-level determinants of the “devil shift” in policy making

Policy actors tend to misinterpret and distrust opponents in policy processes. This phenomenon, known as the “devil shift”, consists of the following two dimensions: actors perceive opponents as more powerful and as more evil than they really are. Analysing nine policy processes in Switzerland, this article highlights the drivers of the devil shift at two levels. On the actor level, interest groups, political parties and powerful actors suffer more from the devil shift than state actors and powerless actors. On the process level, the devil shift is stronger in policy processes dealing with socio-economic issues as compared with other issues. Finally, and in line with previous studies, there is less empirical evidence of the power dimension of the devil shift phenomenon than of its evilness dimension.

Decision strategies for policy decisions under uncertainties: The case of mitigation measures addressing methane emissions from ruminants

Decision strategies aim at enabling reasonable decisions in cases of uncertain policy decision problems which do not meet the conditions for applying standard decision theory. This paper focuses on decision strategies that account for uncertainties by deciding whether a proposed list of policy options should be accepted or revised (scope strategies) and whether to decide now or later (timing strategies). They can be used in participatory approaches to structure the decision process. As a basis, we propose to classify the broad range of uncertainties affecting policy decision problems along two dimensions, source of uncertainty (incomplete information, inherent indeterminacy and unreliable information) and location of uncertainty (information about policy options, outcomes and values). Decision strategies encompass multiple and vague criteria to be deliberated in application. As an example, we discuss which decision strategies may account for the uncertainties related to nutritive technologies that aim at reducing methane (CH4) emissions from ruminants as a means of mitigating climate change, limiting our discussion to published scientific information. These considerations not only speak in favour of revising rather than accepting the discussed list of options, but also in favour of active postponement or semi-closure of decision-making rather than closure or passive postponement.

'Reform' of the British national health service after the election of a labour government: Understanding the policy development process

The policy development process leading to the Labour government's white paper of December 1997—The new NHS: Modern, Dependable—is the focus of this project and the public policy development literature is used to aid in the understanding of this process. Policy makers who had been involved in the development of the white paper were interviewed in order to acquire a thorough understanding of who was involved in this process and how they produced the white paper. A theoretical framework is used that sorts policy development models into those that focus on knowledge and experience, and those which focus on politics and influence. This framework is central to understanding the evidence gathered from the individuals and associations that participated in this policy development process. The main research question to be asked in this project is to what extent do either of these sets of policy development models aid in understanding and explicating the process by which the Labour government's policies were developed. The interview evidence, along with published evidence, show that a clear pattern of policy change emerged from this policy development process, and the Knowledge-Experience and Politics-Influence policy making models both assist in understanding this process. The early stages of the policy development process were characterized as hierarchical and iterative, yet also very collaborative among those participating, with knowledge and experience being quite prevalent. At every point in the process, however, informal networks of political influence were used and noted to be quite prevalent by all of the individuals interviewed. The later stages of the process then became increasingly noninclusive, with decisions made by a select group of internal and external policy makers. These policy making models became an important tool with which to understand the policy development process. This Knowledge-Experience and Politics-Influence dichotomy of policy development models could therefore be useful in analyzing other types of policy development. ^

The utility of rapid participatory appraisal for community assessment, diagnosis, and policy development

The selection of a model to guide the understanding and resolution of community problems is an important issue relating to the foundation of public health practice: assessment, policy development, and assurance. Many assessment models produce a diagnosis of community weaknesses, but fail to promote planning and interventions. Rapid Participatory Appraisal (RPA) is a participatory action research model which regards assessment as the first step in the problem solving process, and claims to achieve assessment and policy development within limited resources of time and money. Literature documenting the fulfillment of these claims, and thereby supporting the utility of the model, is relatively sparse and difficult to obtain. Very few articles discuss the changes resulting from RPA assessments in urban areas, and those that do describe studies conducted outside the U.S.A. ^ This study examines the utility of the RPA model and its underlying theories: systems theory, grounded theory, and principles of participatory change, as illustrated by the case study of a community assessment conducted for the Texas Diabetes Institute (TDI), San Antonio, Texas, and subsequent outcomes. Diabetes has a high prevalence and is a major issue in San Antonio. Faculty and students conducted the assessment by informal collaboration between two nursing and public health assessment courses, providing practical student experiences. The study area was large, and the flexibility of the model tested by its use in contiguous sub-regions, reanalyzing aggregated results for the study area. Official TDI reports, and a mail survey of agency employees, described policy development resulting from community diagnoses revealed by the assessment. ^ The RPA model met the criteria for utility from the perspectives of merit, worth, efficiency, and effectiveness. The RPA model best met the agencies' criteria (merit), met the data needs of TDI in this particular situation (worth), provided valid results within budget, time, and personnel constraints (efficiency), and stimulated policy development by TDI (effectiveness). ^ The RPA model appears to have utility for community assessment, diagnosis, and policy development in circumstances similar to the TDI diabetes study. ^

The Making of Optimal and Consistent Policy: An Analytical Framework for Monetary Models

This paper shows that optimal policy and consistent policy outcomes require the use of control-theory and game-theory solution techniques. While optimal policy and consistent policy often produce different outcomes even in a one-period model, we analyze consistent policy and its outcome in a simple model, finding that the cause of the inconsistency with optimal policy traces to inconsistent targets in the social loss function. As a result, the central bank should adopt a loss function that differs from the social loss function. Carefully designing the central bank s loss function with consistent targets can harmonize optimal and consistent policy. This desirable result emerges from two observations. First, the social loss function reflects a normative process that does not necessarily prove consistent with the structure of the microeconomy. Thus, the social loss function cannot serve as a direct loss function for the central bank. Second, an optimal loss function for the central bank must depend on the structure of that microeconomy. In addition, this paper shows that control theory provides a benchmark for institution design in a game-theoretical framework.

The Making of Optimal and Consistent Policy: An Implementation Theory Framework for Monetary Policy

This paper shows that optimal policy and consistent policy outcomes require the use of control-theory and game-theory solution techniques. While optimal policy and consistent policy often produce different outcomes even in a one-period model, we analyze consistent policy and its outcome in a simple model, finding that the cause of the inconsistency with optimal policy traces to inconsistent targets in the social loss function. As a result, the social loss function cannot serve as a direct loss function for the central bank. Accordingly, we employ implementation theory to design a central bank loss function (mechanism design) with consistent targets, while the social loss function serves as a social welfare criterion. That is, with the correct mechanism design for the central bank loss function, optimal policy and consistent policy become identical. In other words, optimal policy proves implementable (consistent).

Bringing Non-governmental Actors into the Policymaking Process: The Case of Local Development Policy in Thailand

During the past two decades in Thailand, non-governmental actors, such as NGOs, intellectuals, and people's organizations, have found widening opportunities to participate in policy formation and in the implementation of local development. The government has facilitated the formation of civil society forums, in the expectation of influencing local-level governance. The last two national five-year development plans were formulated after taking into account the voices of people in the provinces. Even though they may seem petty, some state funds are now transmitted through non-governmental institutions for policy implementation at the grassroots level. These changes have their origin in a reformation of rural development administration in early 1980s. This reformation in due course led to policies that have allowed the participation of non-governmental actors. Meanwhile, rural people have proved their ability to engage in participatory development by forming various local organizations, while NGOs have grown to be proficient facilitators of local development. This paper describes the process whereby three leading actors, namely the government, local people, and the NGOs, have interacted to bring about a more participatory system of local development administration.

The Policy Making Process in FTA Negotiations: A Case Study of Japanese Bilateral EPAs

This paper analyzes Japanese bilateral EPA negotiations, focusing on the areas that each country decided were most important, as well as which actors played the most important roles in each set of negotiations. The negotiations with Mexico and Thailand, which tried to increase agricultural exports to Japan through FTAs, will be discussed. Japan, one should note, still seeks to protect its agricultural sector in spite of the spread of liberalization. The Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia’s efforts to improve and compete in developing their automotive industries, in the face of the completion of AFTA in 2010, are also examined. In addition, this paper discusses whether economic cooperation, the essential Japanese strategy in EPA negotiations, alters the negotiation process in any significant way.

Hybrid wind-diesel power plant valuation and optimization using real option theory and dynamic programming

El sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido tiene un gran potencial en la prestación de suministro de energía a comunidades remotas. En comparación con los sistemas tradicionales de diesel, las plantas de energía híbridas ofrecen grandes ventajas tales como el suministro de capacidad de energía extra para "microgrids", reducción de los contaminantes y emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, y la cobertura del riesgo de aumento inesperado del precio del combustible. El principal objetivo de la presente tesis es proporcionar nuevos conocimientos para la evaluación y optimización de los sistemas de energía híbrido eólico-diesel considerando las incertidumbres. Dado que la energía eólica es una variable estocástica, ésta no puede ser controlada ni predecirse con exactitud. La naturaleza incierta del viento como fuente de energía produce serios problemas tanto para la operación como para la evaluación del valor del sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido. Por un lado, la regulación de la potencia inyectada desde las turbinas de viento es una difícil tarea cuando opera el sistema híbrido. Por otro lado, el bene.cio económico de un sistema eólico-diesel híbrido se logra directamente a través de la energía entregada a la red de alimentación de la energía eólica. Consecuentemente, la incertidumbre de los recursos eólicos incrementa la dificultad de estimar los beneficios globales en la etapa de planificación. La principal preocupación del modelo tradicional determinista es no tener en cuenta la incertidumbre futura a la hora de tomar la decisión de operación. Con lo cual, no se prevé las acciones operativas flexibles en respuesta a los escenarios futuros. El análisis del rendimiento y simulación por ordenador en el Proyecto Eólico San Cristóbal demuestra que la incertidumbre sobre la energía eólica, las estrategias de control, almacenamiento de energía, y la curva de potencia de aerogeneradores tienen un impacto significativo sobre el rendimiento del sistema. En la presente tesis, se analiza la relación entre la teoría de valoración de opciones y el proceso de toma de decisiones. La opción real se desarrolla con un modelo y se presenta a través de ejemplos prácticos para evaluar el valor de los sistemas de energía eólica-diesel híbridos. Los resultados muestran que las opciones operacionales pueden aportar un valor adicional para el sistema de energía híbrida, cuando esta flexibilidad operativa se utiliza correctamente. Este marco se puede aplicar en la optimización de la operación a corto plazo teniendo en cuenta la naturaleza dependiente de la trayectoria de la política óptima de despacho, dadas las plausibles futuras realizaciones de la producción de energía eólica. En comparación con los métodos de valoración y optimización existentes, el resultado del caso de estudio numérico muestra que la política de operación resultante del modelo de optimización propuesto presenta una notable actuación en la reducción del con- sumo total de combustible del sistema eólico-diesel. Con el .n de tomar decisiones óptimas, los operadores de plantas de energía y los gestores de éstas no deben centrarse sólo en el resultado directo de cada acción operativa, tampoco deberían tomar decisiones deterministas. La forma correcta es gestionar dinámicamente el sistema de energía teniendo en cuenta el valor futuro condicionado en cada opción frente a la incertidumbre. ABSTRACT Hybrid wind-diesel power systems have a great potential in providing energy supply to remote communities. Compared with the traditional diesel systems, hybrid power plants are providing many advantages such as providing extra energy capacity to the micro-grid, reducing pollution and greenhouse-gas emissions, and hedging the risk of unexpected fuel price increases. This dissertation aims at providing novel insights for assessing and optimizing hybrid wind-diesel power systems considering the related uncertainties. Since wind power can neither be controlled nor accurately predicted, the energy harvested from a wind turbine may be considered a stochastic variable. This uncertain nature of wind energy source results in serious problems for both the operation and value assessment of the hybrid wind-diesel power system. On the one hand, regulating the uncertain power injected from wind turbines is a difficult task when operating the hybrid system. On the other hand, the economic profit of a hybrid wind-diesel system is achieved directly through the energy delivered to the power grid from the wind energy. Therefore, the uncertainty of wind resources has increased the difficulty in estimating the total benefits in the planning stage. The main concern of the traditional deterministic model is that it does not consider the future uncertainty when making the dispatch decision. Thus, it does not provide flexible operational actions in response to the uncertain future scenarios. Performance analysis and computer simulation on the San Cristobal Wind Project demonstrate that the wind power uncertainty, control strategies, energy storage, and the wind turbine power curve have a significant impact on the performance of the system. In this dissertation, the relationship between option pricing theory and decision making process is discussed. A real option model is developed and presented through practical examples for assessing the value of hybrid wind-diesel power systems. Results show that operational options can provide additional value to the hybrid power system when this operational flexibility is correctly utilized. This framework can be applied in optimizing short term dispatch decisions considering the path-dependent nature of the optimal dispatch policy, given the plausible future realizations of the wind power production. Comparing with the existing valuation and optimization methods, result from numerical example shows that the dispatch policy resulting from the proposed optimization model exhibits a remarkable performance in minimizing the total fuel consumption of the wind-diesel system. In order to make optimal decisions, power plant operators and managers should not just focus on the direct outcome of each operational action; neither should they make deterministic decisions. The correct way is to dynamically manage the power system by taking into consideration the conditional future value in each option in response to the uncertainty.

System theory based hazard analysis applied to the process industry

Chemical process accidents still occur and cost billions of dollars and, what is worse, many human lives. That means that traditional hazard analysis techniques are not enough mainly owing to the increase of complexity and size of chemical plants. In the last years, a new hazard analysis technique has been developed, changing the focus from reliability to system theory and showing promising results in other industries such as aeronautical and nuclear. In this paper, we present an approach for the application of STAMP and STPA analysis developed by Leveson in 2011 to the process industry.