919 resultados para Poisson Mixed Model
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Phenotypic data from female Canchim beef cattle were used to obtain estimates of genetic parameters for reproduction and growth traits using a linear animal mixed model. In addition, relationships among animal estimated breeding values (EBVs) for these traits were explored using principal component analysis. The traits studied in female Canchim cattle were age at first calving (AFC), age at second calving (ASC), calving interval (CI), and bodyweight at 420 days of age (BW420). The heritability estimates for AFC, ASC, CI and BW420 were 0.03±0.01, 0.07±0.01, 0.06±0.02, and 0.24±0.02, respectively. The genetic correlations for AFC with ASC, AFC with CI, AFC with BW420, ASC with CI, ASC with BW420, and CI with BW420 were 0.87±0.07, 0.23±0.02, -0.15±0.01, 0.67±0.13, -0.07±0.13, and 0.02±0.14, respectively. Standardised EBVs for AFC, ASC and CI exhibited a high association with the first principal component, whereas the standardised EBV for BW420 was closely associated with the second principal component. The heritability estimates for AFC, ASC and CI suggest that these traits would respond slowly to selection. However, selection response could be enhanced by constructing selection indices based on the principal components. © CSIRO 2013.
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The objectives of this study were to determine pH of the mammary gland secretions and the corresponding electrolyte concentrations in prefoaling mares. Pregnant mares (seven primiparous and seven multiparous) were monitored daily from 310.320 days of gestation until parturition. Prefoaling mammary gland secretions were collected, and pH was immediately determined with a pH meter and pH strip test. An aliquot of prefoaling mammary secretions was frozen and stored until further analyses. After parturition, samples from day .4 to 0 (day of foaling) were thawed and electrolyte concentrations (ie, Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+ and Cl-) were determined with an automated analyser. Data were analysed via a mixed model with the mare as a random effect. Correlations were determined between pH and electrolyte concentrations by the Pearson product-moment for each pair. There was significant reduction in pH of mammary secretions on the day of foaling (P<0.0001), and most mares (11/14) with a pH .7 foaled within 24 hours. There was high correlation between the two pH methods (r=0.93). Additionally, there were significant (P<0.05) increases in Ca2+ and K+ concentrations, and significant decreases in Na+ and Cl- concentrations from one day before to the day of foaling. The pH of mammary secretions was highly and significantly (P<0.001) correlated with Na + (r=0.87), Cl- (r=0.85), Ca2+ (r=-0.88); and K+(r=.0.80) concentrations, and moderately correlated with Mg 2+ (r=-0.58). Daily evening pH measure of the mammary gland secretions can predict foaling in most mares.
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The aims of this study were to assess the validity and the feasibility of the qualitative behavior assessment (QBA) method as indicator of Nellore cattle temperament under field conditions, evaluating its associations with four other traditional methods and weight gain. The temperament and live weight of 2229 Nellore cattle was assessed at approximately 550 days of age. Five measurements of cattle temperament were recorded: flight speed test (FS, in m/s), visual scores of movement in the crush (MOV), crush score (CS), temperament score (TS), and the qualitative behavior assessment method (QBA), by using a list of 12 behavioral based adjectives as descriptors of temperament. Average daily weight gain (ADG) was calculated for each animal. For statistical analysis of QBA data, the Principal Component Analysis was used. A temperament index (TI) was defined for each animal using the scores for the first principal component. Pearson's correlation coefficients were estimated between TI with FS and ADG. A mixed model ANOVA was used to analyze the TI variation as a function of TS, CS, and MOV. The score plot for the first and second principal components was used to classify the cattle in four groups (from very bad to very good temperament). The first principal component explained 49.50% of the variation in the data set, with higher positive loadings for the adjectives 'agitated' and 'active', and higher negative loadings for 'calm' and 'relaxed'. TI was significantly correlated with FS (r=0.49; P<0.01) and ADG (r=-0.10; P<0.01). The means of ADG, FS, and the temperament scores (CS, TS, MOV) differed significantly (P<0.01) among the four groups, from very bad to very good temperament. The QBA method could discriminate different behavioral profiles of Nellore cattle and were in agreement with other traditional methods used as indicators of cattle temperament. Additional studies are needed to assess the inter- and intra-observers reliability and to study its association with physiological parameters. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.
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Pós-graduação em Física - IGCE
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon in which the earth‘s climate goes through cycles of warming and cooling; these changes usually take place incrementally over millennia. Over the past century, there has been an anomalous increase in global temperature, giving rise to accelerated climate change. It is widely accepted that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as industries have contributed significantly to the increase in global temperatures. The existence and survival of all living organisms is predicated on the ability of the environment in which they live not only to provide conditions for their basic needs but also conditions suitable for growth and reproduction. Unabated climate change threatens the existence of biophysical and ecological systems on a planetary scale. The present study aims to examine the economic impact of climate change on health in Jamaica over the period 2011-2050. To this end, three disease conditions with known climate sensitivity and importance to Jamaican public health were modelled. These were: dengue fever, leptospirosis and gastroenteritis in children under age 5. Historical prevalence data on these diseases were obtained from the Ministry of Health Jamaica, the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, the Climate Studies Group Mona, University of the West Indies Mona campus, and the Meteorological Service of Jamaica. Data obtained spanned a twelve-year period of 1995-2007. Monthly data were obtained for dengue and gastroenteritis, while for leptospirosis, the annual number of cases for 1995-2005 was utilized. The two SRES emission scenarios chosen were A2 and B2 using the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM) global climate model to predict climate variables for these scenarios. A business as usual (BAU) scenario was developed using historical disease data for the period 2000-2009 (dengue fever and gastroenteritis) and 1995-2005 (leptospirosis) as the reference decades for the respective diseases. The BAU scenario examined the occurrence of the diseases in the absence of climate change. It assumed that the disease trend would remain unchanged over the projected period and the number of cases of disease for each decade would be the same as the reference decade. The model used in the present study utilized predictive empirical statistical modelling to extrapolate the climate/disease relationship in time, to estimate the number of climate change-related cases under future climate change scenarios. The study used a Poisson regression model that considered seasonality and lag effects to determine the best-fit model in relation to the diseases under consideration. Zhang and others (2008), in their review of climate change and the transmission of vector-borne diseases, found that: ―Besides climatic variables, few of them have included other factors that can affect the transmission of vector-borne disease….‖ (Zhang 2008) Water, sanitation and health expenditure are key determinants of health. In the draft of the second communication to IPCC, Jamaica noted the vulnerability of public health to climate change, including sanitation and access to water (MSJ/UNDP, 2009). Sanitation, which in its broadest context includes the removal of waste (excreta, solid, or other hazardous waste), is a predictor of vector-borne diseases (e.g. dengue fever), diarrhoeal diseases (such as gastroenteritis) and zoonoses (such as leptospirosis). In conceptualizing the model, an attempt was made to include non-climate predictors of these climate-sensitive diseases. The importance of sanitation and water access to the control of dengue, gastroenteritis and leptospirosis were included in the Poisson regression model. The Poisson regression model obtained was then used to predict the number of disease cases into the future (2011-2050) for each emission scenario. After projecting the number of cases, the cost associated with each scenario was calculated using four cost components. 1. Treatment cost morbidity estimate. The treatment cost for the number of cases was calculated using reference values found in the literature for each condition. The figures were derived from studies of the cost of treatment and represent ambulatory and non-fatal hospitalized care for dengue fever and gastroenteritis. Due to the paucity of published literature on the health care cost associated with leptospirosis, only the cost of diagnosis and antibiotic therapy were included in the calculation. 2. Mortality estimates. Mortality estimates are recorded as case fatality rates. Where local data were available, these were utilized. Where these were unavailable, appropriate reference values from the literature were used. 3. Productivity loss. Productivity loss was calculated using a human capital approach, by multiplying the expected number of productive days lost by the caregiver and/or the infected person, by GDP per capita per day (US$ 14) at 2008 GDP using 2008 US$ exchange rates. 4. No-option cost. The no-option cost refers to adaptation strategies for the control of dengue fever which are ongoing and already a part of the core functions of the Vector Control Division of the Ministry of Health, Jamaica. An estimated US$ 2.1 million is utilized each year in conducting activities to prevent the post-hurricane spread of vector borne diseases and diarrhoea. The cost includes public education, fogging, laboratory support, larvicidal activities and surveillance. This no-option cost was converted to per capita estimates, using population estimates for Jamaica up to 2050 obtained from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN, 2006) and the assumption of one expected major hurricane per decade. During the decade 2000-2009, Jamaica had an average inflation of 10.4% (CIA Fact book, last updated May 2011). This average decadal inflation rate was applied to the no-option cost, which was inflated by 10% for each successive decade to adjust for changes in inflation over time.
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Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Genética e Melhoramento de Plantas) - FCAV
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)