Offshore wind power forecasting error and electricity market implications

Wind energy has been identified as key to the European Union’s 2050 low carbon economy. However, as wind is a variable resource and stochastic by nature, it is difficult to plan and schedule the power system under varying wind power generation. This paper investigates the impacts of offshore wind power forecast error on the operation and management of a pool-based electricity market in 2050. The impact of the magnitude and variance of the offshore wind power forecast error on system generation costs, emission costs, dispatch-down of wind, number of start-ups and system marginal price is analysed. The main findings of this research are that the magnitude of the offshore wind power forecast error has the largest impact on system generation costs and dispatch-down of wind, but the variance of the offshore wind power forecast error has the biggest impact on emissions costs and system marginal price. Overall offshore wind power forecast error variance results in a system marginal price increase of 9.6% in 2050.

The evolution of offshore wind power in the United Kingdom

In the United Kingdom wind power is recognised as the main source of renewable energy to achieve the European Union 2020 renewable energy targets. Currently over 50% of renewable power is generated from onshore wind with a large number of offshore wind projects in development. Recently the government has re-iterated its commitment to offshore wind power and has announced that offshore wind subsidies are to increase from £135/MWh to £140/MWh until 2019. This paper provides a detailed overview of the offshore wind power industry in the United Kingdom in terms of market growth, policy development and offshore wind farm costs. The paper clearly shows that the United Kingdom is the world leader for installed offshore wind power capacity as pro-active policies and procedures have made it the most attractive location to develop offshore wind farm arrays. The key finding is that the United Kingdom has the potential to continue to lead the world in offshore wind power as it has over 48 GW of offshore wind power projects at different stages of operation and development. The growth of offshore wind power in the United Kingdom has seen offshore wind farm costs rise and level off at approximately £3 million/MW, which are higher than onshore wind costs at £1.5–2 million/MW. Considering the recent increase in offshore wind power subsidies and plans for 48 GW of offshore wind power could see more offshore wind power becoming increasingly financially competitive with onshore wind power. Therefore offshore wind power is likely to become a significant source of electricity in the United Kingdom beyond 2020.

Impact of offshore wind power forecast error in a carbon constraint electricity market

This paper investigates the impacts of offshore wind power forecast error on the operation and management of a pool-based electricity market in 2050. The impact from offshore wind power forecast errors of up to 2000 MW on system generation costs, emission costs, dispatch-down of wind, number of start-ups and system marginal price are analysed. The main findings of this research are an increase in system marginal prices of approximately 1% for every percentage point rise in the offshore wind power forecast error regardless of the average forecast error sign. If offshore wind power generates less than forecasted (−13%) generation costs and system marginal prices increases by 10%. However, if offshore wind power generates more than forecasted (4%) the generation costs decrease yet the system marginal prices increase by 3%. The dispatch down of large quantities of wind power highlights the need for flexible interconnector capacity. From a system operator's perspective it is more beneficial when scheduling wind ahead of the trading period to forecast less wind than will be generated.

Managing Future offshore wind power variability in a European Supergrid

The future European power system will have a hierarchical structure created by layers of system control from a Supergrid via regional high-voltage transmission through to medium and low-voltage distribution. Each level will have generation sources such as large-scale offshore wind, wave, solar thermal, nuclear directly connected to this Supergrid and high levels of embedded generation, connected to the medium-voltage distribution system. It is expected that the fuel portfolio will be dominated by offshore wind in Northern Europe and PV in Southern Europe. The strategies required to manage the coordination of supply-side variability with demand-side variability will include large scale interconnection, demand side management, load aggregation and storage in the context of the Supergrid combined with the Smart Grid. The design challenge associated with this will not only include control topology, data acquisition, analysis and communications technologies, but also the selection of fuel portfolio at a macro level. This paper quantifies the amount of demand side management, storage and so-called 'back-up generation' needed to support an 80% renewable energy portfolio in Europe by 2050. © 2013 IEEE.

A methodology to analyse the impact of offshore wind forecasting error on electricity markets

Currently wind power is dominated by onshore wind farms in the British Isles, but both the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland have high renewable energy targets, expected to come mostly from wind power. However, as the demand for wind power grows to ensure security of energy supply, as a potentially cheaper alternative to fossil fuels and to meet greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets offshore wind power will grow rapidly as the availability of suitable onshore sites decrease. However, wind is variable and stochastic by nature and thus difficult to schedule. In order to plan for these uncertainties market operators use wind forecasting tools, reserve plant and ancillary service agreements. Onshore wind power forecasting techniques have improved dramatically and continue to advance, but offshore wind power forecasting is more difficult due to limited datasets and knowledge. So as the amount of offshore wind power increases in the British Isles robust forecasting and planning techniques are even more critical. This paper presents a methodology to investigate the impacts of better offshore wind forecasting on the operation and management of the single wholesale electricity market in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland using PLEXOS for Power Systems. © 2013 IEEE.

Offshore wind resource estimation using wave buoy data

In the coming decade installed offshore wind capacity is expected to expand rapidly. This will be both technically and economically challenging. Precise wind resource assessment is one of the more imminent challenges. It is more difficult to assess wind power offshore than onshore due to the paucity of representative wind speed data. Offshore site-specific data is less accessible and is far more costly to collect. However, offshore wind speed data collected from sources such as wave buoys, remote sensing from satellites, national weather ships, and coastal meteorological stations and met masts on barges and platforms may be extrapolated to assess offshore wind power. This study attempts to determine the usefulness of pre-existing offshore wind speed measurements in resource assessment, and presents the results of wind resource estimation in the Atlantic Ocean and in the Irish Sea using data from two offshore meteorological buoys. © 2012 IEEE.

A review of offshore wind power development in the United Kingdom

Currently wind power is dominated by onshore wind farms. However, as the demand for power grows driven by security of energy supply issues, dwindling fossil fuel supplies and greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets, offshore wind power will develop rapidly because of the decline of viable onshore sites. The United Kingdom has a target of 21% renewable electricity by 2020 and this is expected to come mostly from wind power. Britain is the most active internationally in terms of offshore wind farm development with almost 48GW in some stage of development. In addition the Scottish Government, the Northern Ireland Executive and the Government of Ireland undertook the 'Irish-Scottish Links on Energy Study' (ISLES), which examined the feasibility of creating an offshore interconnected transmission network and subsea electricity grid based on renewable energy sources off the coast of western Scotland and the Irish Sea. The aim of this paper is to provide an appraisal of offshore wind power development with a focus on the United Kingdom. © 2013 IEEE.

Characteristics of Offshore Wind Speeds using Buoy Measurements

In the coming decade installed offshore wind capacity is expected to expand rapidly. This will be both technically and economically challenging. Precise wind resource assessment is one of the more imminent challenges. It is more difficult to assess wind power offshore than onshore due to the paucity of representative wind speed data. Offshore site-specific data is less accessible and is far more costly to collect. However, offshore wind speed data collected from sources such as wave buoys, remote sensing from satellites, national weather ships, and coastal meteorological stations and met masts on barges and platforms may be extrapolated to assess offshore wind power. This study attempts to determine the usefulness of pre-existing offshore wind speed measurements in resource assessment, and presents the results of wind resource estimation in the Atlantic Ocean and in the Irish Sea using data from two offshore meteorological buoys

Power system performance of offshore wind in the United Kingdom in 2030

At least 34 % of the United Kingdom’s power must come from renewable energy sources to meet planned European Union targets in 2030. Wind power will provide the majority of this renewable electricity with an estimated 36 GW offshore and 21 GW onshore. The success of the Crown Estate’s leasing rounds 1 and 2 in offshore wind has meant the United Kingdom is now one of the world leaders in offshore wind power development. Leasing round 3 will see offshore wind in the United Kingdom surpass 36 GW of installed capacity. This is a significant increase from the current installed offshore wind capacity of 3.6 GW. This research investigates the power system performance of offshore wind power in the United Kingdom in 2030.

Embryonic and larval ecology and biochemistry of offshore decapods

Understanding the biology of offshore species is hardened by the difficulties of sampling in the deep-sea environment. Additionally, due to the vastness of the open ocean, knowledge of early life histories of pelagic larvae is still relatively scarce. In decapod species with bentho-pelagic lifestyle, the transition from life in the seafloor to the water column not only is associated with drastic morphological metamorphosis, but also with changes in behavior and feeding ecology. The purpose of the present thesis was to investigate physiological, biochemical and behavioral adaptation occurring during early development of such species. The Norway lobster, Nephrops norvegicus, and the crab Monodaeus couchi were used as a model as these two species are encountered off the NE Atlantic shelf at depth greater than 300 m. Chapter 1 introduces the challenges faced by both adult and larvae inhabiting such remote habitats, including the effect of food availability on development and oceanographic processes on dispersal and recruitment. The thesis follows early life histories, starting with within-brood variability in the fatty acid (FA) profile displayed by developing N. norvegicus embryos. There were no differences in the FA composition of embryos sampled from both sides of the brooding chamber in most females. However, all females exhibited significant differences in the FA profiles of embryos sampled from different pleopods. Potential causes for the variations recorded may be differential female investment during oocyte production or shifts in FA catabolism during the incubation period promoted by embryo’s location within the brooding chamber. Next, feeding rates and digestive enzymes activity of the early stage larvae was investigated in N. norvegicus. Both stages were able to maximize food intake when larvae were scarce and showed increased feeding rate following periods of starvation. Amylase activity indicated that carbohydrates are not the primary energy reserve and that feeding may be required soon after hatching to trigger amylase activity. Protease activity indicated that protein reserves are catabolized under starvation. These results indicate that larvae may maximize prey ingestion in the presence of plankton patches with higher food abundance and minimize the deleterious effects induced by previous periods of intermittent starvation or unsuitable prey densities/types. Additionally, changes in enzymatic activity may allow newly hatched N. norvegicus larvae to metabolize protein reserves to overcome short-term starvation. Vertical migration behavior and the influence of oceanographic properties were studied next. All zoeal stages of M. couchi displayed reverse diel vertical migration. Abundance of early stages was correlated with chlorophyll a levels. An ontogenic shift in vertical distribution explained the results; earlier zoeal stages remain in the food-rich upper water column while later stages migrate to the bottom for settlement. This vertical migration behavior is likely to affect horizontal distribution of larvae. Indeed, global current patterns will result in low inter-annual variations in decapod larvae recruitment, but short term variations such as upwelling events will cause deviation from the expected dispersal pattern. Throughout development, from the embryo to metamorphosis into benthic juvenile, offshore decapods face many challenges. For the developing individual survivorship will depend heavily on food availability but also on the reserves passed on by the mother. Even though vertical migration behavior can allow the larvae to take advantage of depth varying currents for transport, the effect of general circulation pattern will superimpose local current and influence feeding conditions and affect dispersal and recruitment.

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