Impact of model complexity on cross-temporal transferability in Maxent species distribution models: An assessment using paleobotanical data

Maximum entropy modeling (Maxent) is a widely used algorithm for predicting species distributions across space and time. Properly assessing the uncertainty in such predictions is non-trivial and requires validation with independent datasets. Notably, model complexity (number of model parameters) remains a major concern in relation to overfitting and, hence, transferability of Maxent models. An emerging approach is to validate the cross-temporal transferability of model predictions using paleoecological data. In this study, we assess the effect of model complexity on the performance of Maxent projections across time using two European plant species (Alnus giutinosa (L.) Gaertn. and Corylus avellana L) with an extensive late Quaternary fossil record in Spain as a study case. We fit 110 models with different levels of complexity under present time and tested model performance using AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and AlCc (corrected Akaike Information Criterion) through the standard procedure of randomly partitioning current occurrence data. We then compared these results to an independent validation by projecting the models to mid-Holocene (6000 years before present) climatic conditions in Spain to assess their ability to predict fossil pollen presence-absence and abundance. We find that calibrating Maxent models with default settings result in the generation of overly complex models. While model performance increased with model complexity when predicting current distributions, it was higher with intermediate complexity when predicting mid-Holocene distributions. Hence, models of intermediate complexity resulted in the best trade-off to predict species distributions across time. Reliable temporal model transferability is especially relevant for forecasting species distributions under future climate change. Consequently, species-specific model tuning should be used to find the best modeling settings to control for complexity, notably with paleoecological data to independently validate model projections. For cross-temporal projections of species distributions for which paleoecological data is not available, models of intermediate complexity should be selected.

Past climate-driven range shifts and population genetic diversity in arctic plants

AimHigh intra-specific genetic diversity is necessary for species adaptation to novel environments under climate change, but species tracking suitable conditions are losing alleles through successive founder events during range shift. Here, we investigated the relationship between range shift since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and extant population genetic diversity across multiple plant species to understand variability in species responses. LocationThe circumpolar Arctic and northern temperate alpine ranges. MethodsWe estimated the climatic niches of 30 cold-adapted plant species using range maps coupled with species distribution models and hindcasted species suitable areas to reconstructions of the mid-Holocene and LGM climates. We computed the species-specific migration distances from the species glacial refugia to their current distribution and correlated distances to extant genetic diversity in 1295 populations. Differential responses among species were related to life-history traits. ResultsWe found a negative association between inferred migration distances from refugia and genetic diversities in 25 species, but only 11 had statistically significant negative slopes. The relationships between inferred distance and population genetic diversity were steeper for insect-pollinated species than wind-pollinated species, but the difference among pollination system was marginally independent from phylogenetic autocorrelation. Main conclusionThe relationships between inferred migration distances and genetic diversities in 11 species, independent from current isolation, indicate that past range shifts were associated with a genetic bottleneck effect with an average of 21% loss of genetic diversity per 1000km(-1). In contrast, the absence of relationship in many species also indicates that the response is species specific and may be modulated by plant pollination strategies or result from more complex historical contingencies than those modelled here.

Planting density and initial growth of two tree species adapted to the semi-arid region

Planting densities influence several aspects of forest formation, including management practices, timber yield, quality, and extraction, and consequently its production costs. The objective of this study was to evaluate Mimosa caesalpiinifolia and Gliricidia sepium growth as a function of planting density (400, 600, 800, 1000, and 1200 plants ha-1) and plant age. The species were evaluated every 90 days for plant height (PH), crown diameter (CD) and root collar diameter (RCD) (10 cm above the ground), with the first evaluation performed at 90 days and the last at 720 days. When plants were one year of age and beyond, evaluations were conducted also for stem diameter at breast height (DBH) (1.30 m above the ground). A randomized block design with split-plots and three replicates was adopted. Species were assigned to plots, planting densities were assigned to subplots, and evaluation ages were assigned to subsubplots. The four traits in both species had their values decreased as planting density increased, but continually increased as plant age increased. For PH and RCD there was an alternation between species superiority, with gliricidia being superior to sabiá at some ages, while the opposite occurred at other ages. As to CD the species only differed in the last measurement, gliricidia being superior. With regard to DBH, gliricidia was superior starting from the second measurement. There was an effect of the species × ages interaction for the four traits and also an effect of the densities × ages interaction for CD and DBH.

Species composition and biogeographic relations of the rock outcrop flora on the high plateau of Itatiaia, SE-Brazil

We studied the flora of vegetation islands on rock outcrops on the Itatiaia Plateau (22°21'S and 44°40'W), at 2,400 m.a.s.l. A total of 114 vascular plant species, which correspond to ca. 20%-25% of the currently inventoried flora of the plateau, were sampled in 197 small vegetation islands (total area of 0.034 ha). Xerophytes and hydrophytes were often found side by side due to environmental heterogeneity at a small scale, explaining in part the high species diversity. Rock outcrops may support floras quite distinct from those in neighbouring habitats, due to the action of strong environmental filters, but in Itatiaia the geographic distribution patterns among rupicolous plants appear to mimic those described for the whole flora around it, with 15.1% of narrow endemic species and six strictly rupicolous plants. Underlining the "temperate" nature of the high elevation climate in Itatiaia, the sampled flora was dominated by species of the families Asteraceae and Poaceae, and the number of CAM (crassulacean acid metabolism) species was very low. A few endemic species of tropical origin - Pleurostima gounelleana (Beauv.) Men. (Velloziaceae) and Fernseea itatiaiae (Wawra) Baker (Bromeliaceae) - play a crucial role in this vegetation, as pioneer mat-formers facilitating later establishment of numerous other species. Hemicryptophytes prevail in the sampled flora, while therophytes are exceptionally rare and mainly consist of opportunistic species associated with disturbances. Numerous microhabitats and strong environmental gradients in these high elevation rock outcrops afford opportunities for establishment of a highly diversified flora. These island-like environments may represent an important refuge for grassland species from fire and other disturbances in the surrounding grasslands.

Microscopic variability in mechanical defence and herbivory response in microphyllous leaves of tropical herb species from Serra do Cipó, Brazil

Tropical high altitude grasslands present several species with both microphyllous and highly sclerophyllous leaves, and co-occur in specific soil patches, thus exposed to identical environments. In this article we describe herbivory among co-occurring microphyllous species in a tropical high altitude grassland ecosystem of Serra do Cipó, Minas Gerais state, and we tested the effect of variable anatomic traits on leaf herbivory patterns. Leaf anatomical traits were investigated for Baccharis imbricata Heering , Lavoisiera imbricata DC. and L. subulata Triana (focal species). Herbivory was measured from branches and leaves of individual plants and compared among co-occurring species within one multispecific shrub patch and among L. subulata individuals from this patch and an adjacent monospecific patch. For all present plant species and individuals we estimated the proportion of leaves with different levels of area lost. For the focal species, six leaves were sorted and taken for histological sectioning, in order to allow precise measures of defensive structures. Relative mean leaf area lost differed significantly among the six species found in the multispecific patch. Lavoisiera subulata individuals were more attacked in the multispecific than in the monospecific patch. Leaf margin protection traits in both B. imbricata and L. imbricata showed significant effect against herbivory. Data suggest that some anatomic traits have direct effect against herbivory but their effect are not clearly perceptible among branches within individual plants or among plants within the same species.

Multiple stressors on biotic interactions: how climate change and alien species interact to affect pollination

Global change may substantially affect biodiversity and ecosystem functioning but little is known about its effects on essential biotic interactions. Since different environmental drivers rarely act in isolation it is important to consider interactive effects. Here, we focus on how two key drivers of anthropogenic environmental change, climate change and the introduction of alien species, affect plant–pollinator interactions. Based on a literature survey we identify climatically sensitive aspects of species interactions, assess potential effects of climate change on these mechanisms, and derive hypotheses that may form the basis of future research. We find that both climate change and alien species will ultimately lead to the creation of novel communities. In these communities certain interactions may no longer occur while there will also be potential for the emergence of new relationships. Alien species can both partly compensate for the often negative effects of climate change but also amplify them in some cases. Since potential positive effects are often restricted to generalist interactions among species, climate change and alien species in combination can result in significant threats to more specialist interactions involving native species.

Changing climate and the Irish landscape

The impacts of current and future changes in climate have been investigated for Irish vegetation. Warming has been observed over the last two decades, with impacts that are also strongly influenced by natural oscillations of the surrounding ocean, seen as fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Satellite observations show that vegetation greenness increases in warmer years, a feature mirrored by increases in net ecosystem production observed for a grassland and a plantation forest. An ensemble of general circulation model simulations of future climates indicate temperature rises over the twenty-first century ranging from 1°C to 7°C, depending on future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Net primary production is simulated to increase under all scenarios, due to the positive impacts of rising temperature, a modest rise of precipitation and rising carbon dioxide concentrations. In an optimistic scenario of reducing future emissions, CO2 concentration is simulated to flatten from about 2070, although temperatures continue to increase. Under this scenario Ireland could become a source of carbon, whereas under all other emission scenarios Ireland is a sink for carbon that may increase by up to three-fold over the twenty-first century. A likely and unavoidable impact of changing climate is the arrival of alien plant species, which may disrupt ecosystems and exert negative impacts on native biodiversity. Alien species arrive continually, with about 250 dated arrivals in the twentieth century. A simulation model indicates that this rate of alien arrival may increase by anything between two and ten times, dependent on the future climatic scenario, by 2050. Which alien species may become severely disruptive is, however, not known.

The benefits of a compute cluster approach to high spatial resolution biodiversity richness modelling: projecting the impact of climate change on Mediterranean flora

High spatial resolution environmental data gives us a better understanding of the environmental factors affecting plant distributions at fine spatial scales. However, large environmental datasets dramatically increase compute times and output species model size stimulating the need for an alternative computing solution. Cluster computing offers such a solution, by allowing both multiple plant species Environmental Niche Models (ENMs) and individual tiles of high spatial resolution models to be computed concurrently on the same compute cluster. We apply our methodology to a case study of 4,209 species of Mediterranean flora (around 17% of species believed present in the biome). We demonstrate a 16 times speed-up of ENM computation time when 16 CPUs were used on the compute cluster. Our custom Java ‘Merge’ and ‘Downsize’ programs reduce ENM output files sizes by 94%. The median 0.98 test AUC score of species ENMs is aided by various species occurrence data filtering techniques. Finally, by calculating the percentage change of individual grid cell values, we map the projected percentages of plant species vulnerable to climate change in the Mediterranean region between 1950–2000 and 2020.

A method for under-sampled ecological network data analysis: plant-pollination as case study

In this paper, we develop a method, termed the Interaction Distribution (ID) method, for analysis of quantitative ecological network data. In many cases, quantitative network data sets are under-sampled, i.e. many interactions are poorly sampled or remain unobserved. Hence, the output of statistical analyses may fail to differentiate between patterns that are statistical artefacts and those which are real characteristics of ecological networks. The ID method can support assessment and inference of under-sampled ecological network data. In the current paper, we illustrate and discuss the ID method based on the properties of plant-animal pollination data sets of flower visitation frequencies. However, the ID method may be applied to other types of ecological networks. The method can supplement existing network analyses based on two definitions of the underlying probabilities for each combination of pollinator and plant species: (1), pi,j: the probability for a visit made by the i’th pollinator species to take place on the j’th plant species; (2), qi,j: the probability for a visit received by the j’th plant species to be made by the i’th pollinator. The method applies the Dirichlet distribution to estimate these two probabilities, based on a given empirical data set. The estimated mean values for pi,j and qi,j reflect the relative differences between recorded numbers of visits for different pollinator and plant species, and the estimated uncertainty of pi,j and qi,j decreases with higher numbers of recorded visits.

The grass-free lawn: management and species choice for optimum ground cover and plant diversity

In Britain, managed grass lawns provide the most traditional and widespread of garden and landscape practices in use today. Grass lawns are coming under increasing challenge as they tend to support a low level of biodiversity and can require substantial additional inputs to maintain. Here we apply a novel approach to the traditional monocultural lawnscape by replacing grasses entirely with clonal perennial forbs. We monitored changes in plant coverage and species composition over a two year period and here we report the results of a study comparing plant origin native, non-native and mixed) and mowing regime. This allows us to assess the viability of this construct as an alternative to traditional grass lawns. Grass-free lawns provided a similar level of plant cover to grass lawns. Both the mowing regime and the combination of species used affected this outcome, with native plant species seen to have the highest survival rates, and mowing at 4cm to produce the greatest amount of ground coverage and plant species diversity within grass-free lawns. Grass-free lawns required over 50% less mowing than a traditionally managed grass lawn. Observations suggest that plant forms that exhibited: a) a relatively fast growth rate, b) a relatively large individual leaf area, and c) an average leaf height substantially above the cut to be applied, were unsuitable for use in grass-free lawns. With an equivalent level of ground coverage to grass lawns, increased plant diversity and a reduced need for mowing, the grass-free lawn can be seen as a species diverse, lower input and potentially highly ornamental alternative to the traditional lawn format.

Can the Iberian floristic diversity withstand near-future climate change?

We assess how effectively the current network of protected areas (PAs) across the Iberian Peninsula will conserve plant diversity under near-future (2020) climate change. We computed 3267 MAXENT environmental niche models (ENMs) at 1-km spatial resolution for known Iberian plant species under two climate scenarios (1950-2000 baseline & 2020). To predict near-future species distributions across the network of Iberian and Balearics PAs, we combined projections of species’ ENMs with simulations of propagule dispersal by using six scenarios of annual dispersal rates (no dispersal, 0.1 km, 0.5 km, 1 km, 2 km and unlimited). Mined PA grid cell values for each species were then analyzed. We forecast 3% overall floristic diversity richness loss by 2020. The habitat of regionally extant species will contract on average by 13.14%. Niche movement exceeds 1 km per annum for 30% of extant species. While the southerly range margin of northern plant species retracts northward at 8.9 km per decade, overall niche movement is more easterly and westerly than northerly. There is little expansion of the northern range margin of southern plant species even under unlimited dispersal. Regardless of propagule dispersal rate, altitudinal niche movement of +25 m per decade is strongest for northern species. Pyrenees flora is most vulnerable to near-future climate change with many northern plant species responding by shifting their range westerly and easterly rather than northerly. Northern humid habitats will be particularly vulnerable to near-future climate change. Andalusian National Parks will become important southern biodiversity refuges. With limited human intervention (particularly in the Pyrenees), we conclude that floristic diversity in Iberian PAs should withstand near-future climate change.

A Plant Needs Ants like a Dog Needs Fleas: Myrmelachista schumanni Ants Gall Many Tree Species to Create Housing

Hundreds of tropical plant species house ant colonies in specialized chambers called domatia. When, in 1873, Richard Spruce likened plant-ants to fleas and asserted that domatia are ant-created galls, he incited a debate that lasted almost a century. Although we now know that domatia are not galls and that most ant-plant interactions are mutualisms and not parasitisms, we revisit Spruce`s suggestion that ants can gall in light of our observations of the plant-ant Myrmelachista schumanni, which creates clearings in the Amazonian rain forest called ""supay-chakras,"" or ""devil`s gardens."" We observed swollen scars on the trunks of nonmyrmecophytic canopy trees surrounding supay-chakras, and within these swellings, we found networks of cavities inhabited by M. schumanni. Here, we summarize the evidence supporting the hypothesis that M. schumanni ants make these galls, and we hypothesize that the adaptive benefit of galling is to increase the amount of nesting space available to M. schumanni colonies.

Effects of inhaled Linalool in anxiety, social interaction and aggressive behavior in mice

Aromatherapy uses essential oils (EOs) for several medical purposes, including relaxation. The association between the use of aromas and a decrease in anxiety could be a valuable instrument in managing anxiety in an ever increasing anxiogenic daily life style. Linalool is a monoterpene commonly found as the major volatile component of EOs in several aromatic plant species. Adding to previously reported sedative effects of inhaled linalool, the aim of this study was to investigate the effects of inhaled linalool on anxiety, aggressiveness and social interaction in mice. Additionally, we investigated the effects of inhaled linalool on the acquisition phase of a step-down memory task in mice. Inhaled linalool showed anxiolytic properties in the light/dark test, increased social interaction and decreased aggressive behavior; impaired memory was only seen the higher dose of linalool. These results strengthen the suggestion that inhaling linalool rich essential oils can be useful as a mean to attain relaxation and counteract anxiety. (C) 2009 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Size and lipid content of nonmyrmecochorous diaspores: Effects on the interaction with litter-foraging ants in the Atlantic rain forest of Brazil

Ants are often attracted to diaspores not adapted for dispersal by ants. These diaspores may occasionally benefit from this interaction. We selected six nonmyrmecochorous plant species (Virola oleifera, Eugenia stictosepala, Cabralea canjerana, Citharexylum myrianthum, Alchornea glandulosa and Hyeronima alchorneoides) whose diaspores differ in size and lipid content, and investigated how these features affect the outcome of ant-diaspore interactions on the floor of a lowland Atlantic forest of Southeast Brazil. A total of 23 ant species were seen interacting with diaspores on the forest floor. Ants were generally rapid at discovering and cleaning the diaspore pulp or aril. Recruitment rate and ant attendance were higher for lipid-rich diaspores than for lipid-poor ones. Removal rate and displacement distance were higher for small diaspores. The large ponerine ant Pachycondyla striata, one of the most frequent attendants to lipid-rich arillate diaspores, transported the latter into their nests and discarded clean intact seeds on refuse piles outside the nest. Germination tests with cleaned and uncleaned diaspores revealed that the removal of pulp or aril may increase germination success in Virola oleifera, Cabralea canjerana, Citharexylum myrianthum and Alchornea glandulosa. Gas chromatography analyses revealed a close similarity in the fatty acid composition of the arils of the lipid-rich diaspores and the elaiosome of a typical myrmecochorous seed (Ricinus communis), corroborating the suggestion that some arils and elaiosomes are chemically similar. Although ant-derived benefits to diaspores - secondary dispersal and/or increased germination - varied among the six plant species studied, the results enhanced the role of ant-diaspore interactions in the post-dispersal fates of nonmyrmecochorous seeds in tropical forests. The size and the lipid-content of the diaspores were shown to be major determinants of the outcome of such interactions.

Ecological interaction between Atta sexdens (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) and the vegetation of a mesophyll semideciduous forest fragment in Botucatu, SP, Brazil

Among 89 plants species growing in a subtropical dry forest fragment located in Botucatu, State of São Paulo, Brazil, 35 species were cut by Atta sexdens, representing 39.34% of the current plants existing in this area. A. sexdens L., 1758 (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) has a selective preference for the following species: Alchornea triplinervia, Faramea cyanea, Cariniana estrellensis and Casearea obliqua, with the first being the most cut species. The frequency and absolute densities of the plant families and species significantly influence the selection process. When comparing the absolute frequency regarding the 10 most cut plant species and the cutting frequency, significant data were obtained only for the euphorbiaceous A. triplinervia species, proving the preference of A. sexdens for this species in particular. These interactions are discussed based on ecological and management factors in agro-ecosystems.