The Path towards 1.5 degrees Celsius. CEPS Policy Brief No. 336, 3 December 2015

In less than one year, the country-led exercise in preparing Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) has accomplished what the top-down approach characteristic of the UNFCCC has not been able to achieve in over 21 years of negotiations, namely to produce a sound agreement to reduce climate change. As such, the UNFCCC should adopt a new process similar to that used in developing the INDCs, in which Parties to the Convention would mobilise their national efforts, but on a wider scale and under certain agreed binding conditions. To ensure a comprehensive engagement, this Policy Brief recommends the introduction of a four-tier system in which the most developed nations called upon to take the lead, but with the very least developed nations also contributing to the intended UN objective.

La réforme Dodd-Frank des produits dérivés de gré à gré : vers un modèle mondial?

Suite à la crise financière de 2008 les pays du G20 se sont interrogés sur la transparence des marchés, la stabilité du système et une façon de réguler les risques posés par le nouvel environnement économique. Les produits dérivés de gré à gré ont été identifiés et des engagements ont été pris en faveur de nouvelles régulations des dérivés de gré à gré et la gestion des risques sous-jacents. Les régulateurs ont donc adopté chacun à leur tour un cadre législatif régulant les dérivés de gré à gré tout en déployant un effort international d'harmonisation et de reconnaissance des contreparties assujetties à des régimes équivalents. Les autorités canadiennes en valeurs mobilières ont publié des projets de règlements. Nous nous interrogerons sur ce nouveau cadre réglementaire des dérivés de gré à gré élaboré par les autorités canadiennes en valeurs mobilières, prenant en considération les spécificités canadiennes et les acteurs actifs sur leur territoire. Notre étude traite de ces projets de règlements et de la difficulté d'encadrer les marchés des dérivés de gré à gré qui par définition ne comportent pas de plateformes de négociation ou de lieu géographique et de frontières mais se caractérisent surtout par le lien contractuel entre les parties et l'identification de ces parties. L'élaboration d'un nouveau cadre pour les dérivés de gré à gré qui régule les transactions transfrontières semble très délicat à traiter et les possibles conflits et chevauchements de lois seront inévitables. Confrontés à des définitions divergentes de contreparties locales, les parties à une opération seront condamnées à un risque de qualification en vertu des règlements nationaux sur les dérivés de gré à gré. Une concertation pourrait être renforcée et la détermination de l'autorité compétente ainsi que les concepts de contreparties locales, succursales ou filiales pourraient être harmonisés.

LMX à distance : analyse qualitative et développement d’une échelle de mesure

Notre recherche a pour objectif général de proposer l’adaptation du concept de la relation d’échange superviseur-subordonné (leader-member exchange ou LMX) à la nouvelle réalité du travail à distance. Il s’agit d’étudier la relation d’échange qui se développe entre le superviseur et le subordonné travaillant à distance. Plus précisément, nous visons à définir et à développer une échelle de mesure valide et fiable du concept du LMX à distance. Jusqu’à présent, aucune définition de cette relation d’échange superviseur-subordonné n'a été proposée et aucune échelle de mesure n'a été développée. Dans l’étude que nous proposons, la notion de la distance n’est pas considérée comme un élément contextuel, mais plutôt un élément indissociable du concept lui-même, contrairement à certaines études qui ont examiné la distance comme modérateur de la relation entre le LMX et ses résultantes (Bligh et Riggio, 2012; Brunelle, 2013). À cet effet, cette étude constitue la première sur le sujet. Étant donné l'importance du LMX à distance pour les travailleurs à distance et dont le nombre atteindrait plus de 50 % d’ici 2020 (ITIF, CAS et CoreNet Global), il est primordial de comprendre et d'analyser la relation d’échange superviseur-subordonné à distance afin de mieux comprendre sa nature et son processus de développement, ce qui permettra aux parties de la dyade superviseur-subordonné de mieux s’adapter à cette nouvelle réalité de travail et de développer des relations d’échanges de qualité. Cette recherche aidera les superviseurs travaillant à distance à mieux gérer leur potentiel humain. Pour cerner ce sujet de recherche, nous avons fait une revue approfondie de la littérature traitant du LMX traditionnel et de la notion de distance, et ce, afin de pouvoir proposer une définition du concept du LMX à distance. En outre, nous avons fait appel aux recommandations de la littérature portant sur la psychométrie et nous avons réalisé une étude exploratoire de nature qualitative pour développer son échelle de mesure. Nous avons donc effectué des entrevues individuelles semi-dirigées auprès de trente professeurs d’une université canadienne. Ces entrevues ont été analysées avec le logiciel qualitatif spécialisé Nvivo et ont permis de présenter une première échelle de mesure du LMX à distance composée de sept dimensions et de 27 indicateurs. En somme, nous avons tenu à acquérir une meilleure compréhension de ce phénomène qui est très répandu dans les organisations modernes et à offrir une plateforme théorique et pratique que les chercheurs pourront utiliser pour enrichir leurs connaissances sur le concept du LMX à distance. Enfin, notre étude permettra aux superviseurs et aux subordonnés de comprendre l'importance de développer et de maintenir des relations de qualité conduisant à des résultats organisationnels et personnels positifs.

The ruling eldership of the Christian church /

Mode of access: Internet.

Metodologia adotada pela Secretaria de Estado da Saúde do Estado de São Paulo para avaliação dos hospitais administrados por organizações sociais de saúde na região metropolitana de São Paulo

O tema central deste estudo é descrever e analisar a metodologia de avaliação adotada pela Secretaria de Estado da Saúde de São Paulo para avaliar os hospitais administrados por Organizações Sociais de Saúde (OSS), localizados na região metropolitana de São Paulo. O objetivo é descrever e analisar as dimensões selecionadas pela CGCSS – Coordenadoria de Gestão de Contratos de Serviços de Saúde e identificar os indicadores e as informaçoes geradas pelas OSS e encaminhadas rotineiramente para a CGCSS, além das ações tomadas em relação ao resultado dos indicadores e metas. Trata-se de uma pesquisa qualitativa, exploratória e descritiva, sendo analisados documentos técnicos e realizadas entrevistas semiestruturadas com técnicos da Secretaria de Estado da Saúde de São Paulo e com integrantes da Comissão de Avaliação da Execução dos Contratos de Gestão das Organizações Sociais. Conclui-se que a metodologia de avaliação de desempenho da OSS atende ao disposto na legislação estadual constante na lei nº 846/98, por meio do controle dos indicadores acordados previamente. Porém, a metodologia carece de indicadores capazes de avaliar a qualidade do serviço e o uso dos recursos financeiros. Um dos fatores relevantes em relação à pesquisa foi a falta de acesso aos dados, o que constitui a falta de publicização dos dados, por parte da SES/SP. Porém com a ajuda de alguns membros da comissão foi possível o acesso tardio, por entenderem ser informações públicas.

Neuromuscular adaptation during skill acquisition on a two degree-of-freedom target-acquisition task: Isometric torque production

In this study we attempted to identify the principles that govern the changes in neural control that occur during repeated performance of a multiarticular coordination task. Eight participants produced isometric flexion/extension and pronation/supination torques at the radiohumeral joint, either in isolation (e.g., flexion) or in combination (e.g., flexion - supination), to acquire targets presented by a visual display. A cursor superimposed on the display provided feedback of the applied torques. During pre- and postpractice tests, the participants acquired targets in eight directions located either 3.6 cm (20% maximal voluntary contraction [MVC]) or 7.2 cm (40% MVC) from a neutral cursor position. On each of five consecutive days of practice the participants acquired targets located 5.4 cm (30% MVC) from the neutral position. EMG was recorded from eight muscles contributing to torque production about the radiohumeral joint during the pre- and posttests. Target-acquisition time decreased significantly with practice in most target directions and at both target torque levels. These performance improvements were primarily associated with increases in the peak rate of torque development after practice. At a muscular level, these changes were brought about by increases in the rates of recruitment of all agonist muscles. The spatiotemporal organization of muscle synergies was not significantly altered after practice. The observed adaptations appear to lead to performances that are generalizable to actions that require both greater and smaller joint torques than that practiced, and may be successfully recalled after a substantial period without practice. These results suggest that tasks in which performance is improved by increasing the rate of muscle activation, and thus the rate of joint torque development, may benefit in terms of the extent to which acquired levels of performance are maintained over time.

A border-based approach for hiding sensitive frequent itemsets

Sharing data among organizations often leads to mutual benefit. Recent technology in data mining has enabled efficient extraction of knowledge from large databases. This, however, increases risks of disclosing the sensitive knowledge when the database is released to other parties. To address this privacy issue, one may sanitize the original database so that the sensitive knowledge is hidden. The challenge is to minimize the side effect on the quality of the sanitized database so that nonsensitive knowledge can still be mined. In this paper, we study such a problem in the context of hiding sensitive frequent itemsets by judiciously modifying the transactions in the database. To preserve the non-sensitive frequent itemsets, we propose a border-based approach to efficiently evaluate the impact of any modification to the database during the hiding process. The quality of database can be well maintained by greedily selecting the modifications with minimal side effect. Experiments results are also reported to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach. © 2005 IEEE

A Reactive Agent-based Neural Network Car Following Model

This paper presented a novel approach to develop car following models using reactive agent techniques for mapping perceptions to actions. The results showed that the model outperformed the Gipps and Psychophysical family of car following models. The standing of this work is highlighted by its acceptance and publication in the proceedings of the International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), which is now recognised as the premier international conference on ITS. The paper acceptance rate to this conference was 67 percent. The standing of this paper is also evidenced by its listing in international databases like Ei Inspec and IEEE Xplore. The paper is also listed in Google Scholar. Dr Dia co-authored this paper with his PhD student Sakda Panwai.

ADOLESCÊNCIA E TRANSTORNO DE CONDUTA: ESTUDO DO FUNCIONAMENTO PSÍQUICO E DA PERCEPÇÃO DA FIGURA PATERNA DE ADOLESCENTES INFRATORES

O presente estudo teve por objetivos: a) investigar conteúdos da psicodinâmica dos adolescentes infratores; b) descrever a percepção das interações afetivo-relacionais dos adolescentes em relação à figura paterna. Para isso foram estudados seis casos de adolescentes que cometeram infração e que cumprem medidas sócioeducativas, sendo cinco deles com 17 anos e um com 14 anos. Esses adolescentes freqüentavam o CEDECA (Centro de Defesa dos Direitos da Criança e do Adolescente) da cidade de Mauá (São Paulo), local onde os dados foram coletados. Foram utilizados como instrumentos o Procedimento de Desenho-Estória com Tema e entrevista semi-estruturada. A aplicação do procedimento foi feita com base nas seguintes instruções: desenhe um adolescente de Mauá e desenhe o pai de um adolescente de Mauá e, após cada desenho, foi pedido que o adolescente contasse uma história sobre o mesmo. De um modo geral, os resultados mostraram que o primitivismo e esteve presente na produção dos seis adolescentes, visto a presença de mecanismos de defesa como idealização, negação, cisão e outros mecanismos de defesa esquizóides. Também ficou evidente que a dificuldade de crescimento e evolução da personalidade, assim como a conduta anti-social estão associadas à qualidade da introjeção da figura paterna e a relação que estes adolescentes estabelecem com ela. Concluiu-se que o modo como se dá o desenvolvimento psíquico é fator determinante para que indivíduo seja levado á conduta delituosa. Por isso, são necessários mais estudos sobre a personalidade de adolescentes em conflito com a lei, para que o conhecimento científico possa contribuir em ações no âmbito familiar, bem como em programas de prevenção primária e secundária que possam dar condições de um bom desenvolvimento psíquico às pessoas antes que cheguem à adolescência e à idade adulta.

Modernisation in small steps? Comparing the organisational reforms of the British Conservative Party and the German CDU

Research on political parties has long identified “environmental” pressures upon parties to undertake organisational and programmatic reforms – this applies in particular to “catch-all” parties or Volksparteien. Changed social and media structures, the decline of organisations traditionally associated with the parties, and the growth in alternative possibilities of political participation create significant organisational – as well as programmatic – challenges. This paper compares the German CDU and the British Conservatives in two respects: in particular it focuses on their organisational responses to the election defeats they suffered at the end of the 1990s, examining those reforms which took place and consider whether these match the expectations of organisational reforms anticipated by proponents of the “cartel party thesis”. While in both cases there are similarities, but (in particular in the German case) it is important not to understate the extent of internal party resistance to reform, and thus the difficulties with which aspiring party reformers are confronted. This conclusion suggests, more broadly, that in reality the process of party change is more than an almost automatic, isomorphic, and inevitable response to a changing environment. Rather it is punctuated, messy, and often contingent on events and agents.

Dangerous brown men:exploiting sex, violence and feminism in the 'war on terror'

Why is the public presentation of the war on terror suffused with sexualised racism? What does this tell us about ideas of gender, sexuality, religious and political identity and the role of the state in the Western powers? Can we diffuse inter-ethnic conflicts and change the way the West pursues its security agenda by understanding the role of sexualised racism in the war on terror? In asking such questions, Gargi Bhattacharyya considers how the concepts of imperialism, feminism, terror and security can be applied, in order to build on the influential debates about the sexualised character of colonialism. She examines the way in which western imperial violence has been associated with the rhetoric of rights and democracy - a project of bombing for freedom that has called into question the validity of western conceptions of democracy, rights and feminism. Such rhetoric has given rise to actions that go beyond simply protecting western interests or securing access to scarce resources and appear to be beyond instrumental reason. The articulations of racism that appear with the war on terror are animated by fears and sexual fantasies inexplicable by rational interest alone. There can be no resolution to this seemingly endless conflict without understanding the highly sexualised racism that animates it. Such an understanding threatens to pierce the heart of imperial relations, revealing their intense contradictions and uncovering attempts to normalise violent expropriation.

Channel incentives as unilateral and bilateral governance processes

The authors investigate channel incentives as extra-contractual governance processes that maintain and extend marketing channel relationships. More specifically, instrumental incentives are monetary-based payments made by a manufacturer in a unilateral channel arrangement to motivate distributor compliance, while equity incentives are bilateral expectations of fair treatment that motivate both parties to continue to cooperate with one another. A model of the antecedents and performance consequences of channel incentives is conceptualized and tested on 314 marketing channel relationships using a structural equation modeling methodology. The findings support the conceptual model and suggest that unique facets of the channel relationship explain the type of incentive mechanism in use.

The PCF and the question of intellectual workers : the crisis of social ideology

The aim of this thesis is to examine the approach of the Parti Communiste Francais (from 1956 to 1982) to the emergence of new strata of salaried `intellectual workers' (technicians, engineers, low to middle managers in industry and commerce, scientific researchers, teachers etc) parallelled by the gradual diminution of the traditional industrial working class which forms the core of the Party's support base. This examination is carried out in the context of the debate in France (initiated in the 1950s by social theorists of the Left) on the class membership and role of these strata. The reason for the emergence of such a debate is that in a society given to both a rapid evolution of its social structure and an increased polarisation between Left and Right, a precise knowledge of the objective and subjective determinations of new strata would enable parties to the Left to make proper distinctions between potential allies and adversaries. The thesis posits the view that the PCF has failed to make correct distinctions between its potential allies and adversaries and has thus pursued unsuccessful alliance strategies. The thesis contributes towards a scientifically-based understanding of one of the reasons governing the PCF's steady decline since the 1950s.

Technical change and work organisation

This thesis is an exploration of the social and political processes involved in the introduction of new technology to the shopfloor. Through a series of case studies of applications of microelectronics to batch manufacture, it attempts to uncover the ways in which the values and interests of managers, engineers, workers and others profoundly influence the choice and use of technology, and thus the work organisation which emerges. Previous analyses have tended to treat new technology as if it had "impacts" on work organisation - especially skills - which are inevitable in particular technical and economic circumstances. It is in opposition to this view that technical change is here treated as a matter for social choice and political negotiation, the various interested parties to the change being shown to attempt to incorporate their own interests into the technical and social organisation of work. Section one provides the relevant background to the case studies by summarising and criticising previous theoretical and empirical work in the area. The inadequacies of this work for our concerns are drawn out, and the need for detailed studies of the political aspects of technical change is justified. The case studies are presented in section two as a set of "episodes" of innovation, and section three analyses the empirical findings. The innovations are compared and contrasted in order to illustrate the social and political dynamics involved in the various stages of the innovation process. Finally some comments are made on policy issues for which the research has important implications.

Linked knowledge sources for topic classification of microposts:a semantic graph-based approach

Short text messages a.k.a Microposts (e.g. Tweets) have proven to be an effective channel for revealing information about trends and events, ranging from those related to Disaster (e.g. hurricane Sandy) to those related to Violence (e.g. Egyptian revolution). Being informed about such events as they occur could be extremely important to authorities and emergency professionals by allowing such parties to immediately respond. In this work we study the problem of topic classification (TC) of Microposts, which aims to automatically classify short messages based on the subject(s) discussed in them. The accurate TC of Microposts however is a challenging task since the limited number of tokens in a post often implies a lack of sufficient contextual information. In order to provide contextual information to Microposts, we present and evaluate several graph structures surrounding concepts present in linked knowledge sources (KSs). Traditional TC techniques enrich the content of Microposts with features extracted only from the Microposts content. In contrast our approach relies on the generation of different weighted semantic meta-graphs extracted from linked KSs. We introduce a new semantic graph, called category meta-graph. This novel meta-graph provides a more fine grained categorisation of concepts providing a set of novel semantic features. Our findings show that such category meta-graph features effectively improve the performance of a topic classifier of Microposts. Furthermore our goal is also to understand which semantic feature contributes to the performance of a topic classifier. For this reason we propose an approach for automatic estimation of accuracy loss of a topic classifier on new, unseen Microposts. We introduce and evaluate novel topic similarity measures, which capture the similarity between the KS documents and Microposts at a conceptual level, considering the enriched representation of these documents. Extensive evaluation in the context of Emergency Response (ER) and Violence Detection (VD) revealed that our approach outperforms previous approaches using single KS without linked data and Twitter data only up to 31.4% in terms of F1 measure. Our main findings indicate that the new category graph contains useful information for TC and achieves comparable results to previously used semantic graphs. Furthermore our results also indicate that the accuracy of a topic classifier can be accurately predicted using the enhanced text representation, outperforming previous approaches considering content-based similarity measures. © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.