State Transformation and the European Integration Project. Lessons from the financial crisis and the Greek paradigm. CEPS Special Report No. 130/February 2016

The financial crisis that erupted in the eurozone not only affected the EU’s financial governance mechanisms, but also the very nature of state sovereignty and balances in the relations of member states; thus, the actual inequalities between the member states hidden behind their institutional equality have deteriorated. This transformation is recorded in the case law of the Court of Justice of the European Union and the member states’ constitutional courts, particularly in those at the heart of the crisis, with Greece as the most prominent example. It is the issue of public debt (sovereign debt) of the EU member states that particularly reflects the influence of the crisis on state sovereignty as well as the intensely transnational (intergovernmental) character of European integration, which under these circumstances takes the form of a continuous, tough negotiation. The historical connection between public debt (sovereign debt) and state sovereignty has re-emerged because of the financial crisis. This development has affected not only the European institutions, but also, at the member state level, the actual institutional content of the rule of law (especially judicial review) and the welfare state in its essence, as the great social and political acquis of 20th century Europe. From this perspective, the way that the Greek courts have dealt with the gradual waves of fiscal austerity measures and structural reforms from 2010 to 2015 is characteristic. The effect of the financial crisis on the sovereignty of the member states and on the pace of European integration also has an impact on European foreign and security policy, and the correlations between the political forces at both the national and European level, thus producing even more intense pressures on European social democracy. In light of the experience of the financial crisis, the final question is whether the nation state (given the large real inequalities among the EU member states) currently functions as a brake or as an engine for future European integration.

Financial assistance to Greece: Three programmes. EPC Discussion Paper, 26 February 2016

There are a lot of myths surrounding the bailout money that was given to Greece. Many people still believe that the money never went to the Greek people, but to the Greek and European banks; that the intervention of the euro-area governments and the IMF dealt almost exclusively with the Greek debt; that very little money was used to finance Greek public expenditure; that most Greek debt was reimbursed; that no cuts were made to the stock of Greek government bonds on the market; and, finally, that so far, no cuts have been made to the debt of the Greek state towards the euro-area countries. In this Discussion Paper, Fabio Colasanti debunks some of those myths by taking stock of the numbers behind the financial support given to Greece by the countries of the euro-area and the IMF. Examining the three bailout programmes in detail, he discusses the reasons for and against a restructuring of the Greek public debt in 2010, its implementation in 2012, the degree in which the Greek debt towards the euro-area countries has already been cut, and the scope for further cuts. Finally, the paper explains how both issues were and are still dominated by internal political considerations, both in the creditor countries and in Greece.

A proposal to revive the European Fiscal Framework. Bruegel Policy Contribution ISSUE 2016/07 MARCH 2016

Pro-cyclical fiscal tightening might be one reason for the anaemic economic recovery in Europe, raising questions about the effectiveness of the EU’s fiscal framework in achieving its two main objectives: public debt sustainability and fiscal stabilisation. • In theory, the current EU fiscal rules, with cyclically adjusted targets, flexibility clauses and the option to enter an excessive deficit procedure, allow for large-scale fiscal stabilisation during a recession. However, implementation of the rules is hindered by the badly-measured structural balance indicator and incorrect forecasts, leading to erroneous policy recommendations. The large number of flexibility clauses makes the system opaque. • The current inefficient European fiscal framework should be replaced with a system based on rules that are more conducive to the two objectives, more transparent, easier to implement and which have a higher potential to be complied with. • The best option, re-designing the fiscal framework from scratch, is currently unrealistic. Therefore we propose to eliminate the structural balance rules and to introduce a new public expenditure rule with debt-correction feedback, embodied in a multi-annual framework, which would also support the central bank’s inflation target. A European Fiscal Council could oversee the system.

The Labour Market in Spain: Problems, Challenges and Future Trends. Policy Brief #2015/01

Spain’s economy was hit particularly hard by the financial crisis. After severe austerity measures have been implemented in recent years to contain a strong public debt increase, first signs of economic recovery are emerging. However, as SIM Europe results show, very few measures to soften the social consequences have been enacted. Spain scores second to last in the ‘Labour Market Access’ dimension of the Social Justice Index 2015, with the greatest deterioration among all EU countries compared to 2008. According to the Reform Barometer 2015, the quality of labour market reforms in Spain ranks last in the EU. With economic recovery gaining momentum, high priority should be given to ameliorating labour market access through higher education improvements, professional training, investments into R&D and promotion of high added-value industries.

Essays on the Effects of Corporate Taxation

Cette thèse est une collection de trois articles en macroéconomie et finances publiques. Elle développe des modèles d'Equilibre Général Dynamique et Stochastique pour analyser les implications macroéconomiques des politiques d'imposition des entreprises en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits. Le premier chapitre analyse les mécanismes de transmission à l'économie, des effets d'un ré-échelonnement de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises. Dans une économie constituée d'un gouvernement, d'une firme représentative et d'un ménage représentatif, j'élabore un théorème de l'équivalence ricardienne avec l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises. Plus particulièrement, j'établis que si les marchés financiers sont parfaits, un ré-échelonnement de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises qui ne change pas la valeur présente de l'impôt total auquel l'entreprise est assujettie sur toute sa durée de vie n'a aucun effet réel sur l'économie si l'état utilise un impôt forfaitaire. Ensuite, en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits, je montre qu'une une baisse temporaire de l'impôt forfaitaire sur le profit des entreprises stimule l'investissement parce qu'il réduit temporairement le coût marginal de l'investissement. Enfin, mes résultats indiquent que si l'impôt est proportionnel au profit des entreprises, l'anticipation de taxes élevées dans le futur réduit le rendement espéré de l'investissement et atténue la stimulation de l'investissement engendrée par la réduction d'impôt. Le deuxième chapitre est écrit en collaboration avec Rui Castro. Dans cet article, nous avons quantifié les effets sur les décisions individuelles d'investis-sement et de production des entreprises ainsi que sur les agrégats macroéconomiques, d'une baisse temporaire de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits. Dans un modèle où les entreprises sont sujettes à des chocs de productivité idiosyncratiques, nous avons d'abord établi que le rationnement de crédit affecte plus les petites (jeunes) entreprises que les grandes entreprises. Pour des entreprises de même taille, les entreprises les plus productives sont celles qui souffrent le plus du manque de liquidité résultant des imperfections du marché financier. Ensuite, nous montré que pour une baisse de 1 dollar du revenu de l'impôt, l'investissement et la production augmentent respectivement de 26 et 3,5 centimes. L'effet cumulatif indique une augmentation de l'investissement et de la production agrégés respectivement de 4,6 et 7,2 centimes. Au niveau individuel, nos résultats indiquent que la politique stimule l'investissement des petites entreprises, initialement en manque de liquidité, alors qu'elle réduit l'investissement des grandes entreprises, initialement non contraintes. Le troisième chapitre est consacré à l'analyse des effets de la réforme de l'imposition des revenus d'entreprise proposée par le Trésor américain en 1992. La proposition de réforme recommande l'élimination des impôts sur les dividendes et les gains en capital et l'imposition d'une seule taxe sur le revenu des entreprises. Pour ce faire, j'ai eu recours à un modèle dynamique stochastique d'équilibre général avec marchés financiers imparfaits dans lequel les entreprises sont sujettes à des chocs idiosyncratiques de productivité. Les résultats indiquent que l'abolition des impôts sur les dividendes et les gains en capital réduisent les distorsions dans les choix d'investissement des entreprises, stimule l'investissement et entraîne une meilleure allocation du capital. Mais pour être financièrement soutenable, la réforme nécessite un relèvement du taux de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises de 34\% à 42\%. Cette hausse du taux d'imposition décourage l'accumulation du capital. En somme, la réforme engendre une baisse de l'accumulation du capital et de la production respectivement de 8\% et 1\%. Néanmoins, elle améliore l'allocation du capital de 20\%, engendrant des gains de productivité de 1.41\% et une modeste augmentation du bien être des consommateurs.

[Speeches delivered in the Senate and House of Representatives in 1844.]

[no. 1] Evans, George. The tariff of 1842 vindicated.--[no. 2] Evans, George. Discussion on the tariff.--[no. 3] Stewart, Andrew. Speech ... in defence of the tariff and distribution.--[no. 4] Wethered, John. Speech ... on the tariff.--[no. 5] Dayton, W.L. Speech ... on the tariff.--[no. 6] Stephens, A.H. Speech ... against the tariff bill reported by the committee of ways and means.--[no. 7] Rives, W.C. Speech ... on Mr. McDuffie's proposition to repeal the tariff act of 1842.--[no. 8] The tariff, a tract for the times, by a citizen of Virginia.--[no. 9] Tariff doctrine.--[no. 10] The sub-treasury.--[no. 11] Stuart, A.H.H. Speech ... on the bill to incorporate the subscribers to the fiscal bank of the United States.--[no. 12] Archer, W.S. Speech ... on the treaty for the annexation of Texas.--[no. 13] Jarnagin, Spencer. Speech ... on the treaty for the annexation of Texas.--[no. 14] Benton, T.H. Texas annexation bill.--[no. 15] Whig text book.--[no. 16] Hardin, J.J. Speech ... reviewing the public life & political principles of Mr. Van Buren.--[no. 17] White, John. Speech ... in defence of Mr. Clay upon the charge of "Bargain and sale".--[no. 18] Davis, Garret. Extract from the speech ... exhibiting the expenditures of Mr. Van Buren's administration, the public debt, and the condition of the Treasury at its close.--[no. 19] Barnard, D.D. Letter ... in review of the report of the committee of ways and means on the finances and the public debt.

Miscellaneous works.

1. The harmony of interest. Letters on international copyright, ed. 2. Money. Letters to the President, on the foreign and domestic policy of the union. Financial crises: their causes and effects. --2. Letters to Schuyler Colfax on the paper, the iron, the farmer's, the railroad and the currency questions. The public debt, local and national. Contraction or expansion? Repudiation or resumption? British free trade. Review of the decade 1857-67. Reconstruction: industrial, financial and political. The finance minister, the currency, and the public debt. Shall we have peace?: Letters to the President elect of the U.S. Review of the report of D. A. Wells. Resumption. Review of the farmer's question. Wealth: of what does it consist? International copyright question considered. Memoir of Stephen Colwell.

Financial pamphlets

A collection of miscellaneous pamphlets on finance.

Rules governing remittance of proceeds of sales of United States Savings Bonds.

"PD F 5273."

Invest in your future today : U.S. savings bonds : help your coworkers invest in their future today : guide for campaign volunteers.

Mode of access: Internet.

Centroamérica y República Dominicana: Evolución económica en 2015 y perspectivas para 2016. Estudio Económico

En el presente documento se analiza la evolución de las economías de Centroamérica (Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua y Panamá) y la República Dominicana (CARD) en 2015, con base en cifras oficiales al cierre del año, y ofrece un análisis de los primeros meses de 2016 y perspectivas para el resto del año. Es un estudio de coyuntura, con información disponible al 30 de junio de 2016. En el documento se ofrece una actualización de la versión publicada en febrero de 2016.

Essays on Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy and Currency Unions: Exploring the Role of Informality and Labor Mobility

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Konjunktúraingadozások az Egyesült Államokban 1970-2010 - Értelmezési nehézségek = Business cycles and recession patterns in the US economy and in the G7

Lehet-e beszélni a 2011-ig felgyülemlett empirikus tapasztalatok tükrében egy egységes válságlefolyásról, amely a fejlett ipari országok egészére általában jellemző, és a meghatározó országok esetében is megragadható? Megállapíthatók-e olyan univerzális változások a kibocsátás, a munkapiacok, a fogyasztás, valamint a beruházás tekintetében, amelyek jól illeszkednek a korábbi tapasztalatokhoz, nem kevésbé az ismert makromodellek predikcióihoz? A válasz – legalábbis jelen sorok írásakor – nemleges: sem a válság lefolyásának jellegzetességeiben és a makrogazdasági teljesítmények romlásának ütemében, sem a visszacsúszás mértékében és időbeli kiterjedésében sincsenek jól azonosítható közös jegyek, olyanok, amelyek a meglévő elméleti keretekbe jól beilleszthetők. A tanulmány áttekinti a válsággal és a makrogazdasági sokkokkal foglalkozó empirikus irodalom – a pénzügyi globalizáció értelmezései nyomán – relevánsnak tartott munkáit. Ezt követően egy 60 év távlatát átfogó vizsgálatban próbáljuk megítélni a recessziós időszakokban az amerikai gazdaság teljesítményét azzal a célkitűzéssel, hogy az elmúlt válság súlyosságának megítélése kellően objektív lehessen, legalább a fontosabb makrováltozók elmozdulásának nagyságrendje tekintetében. / === / Based on the empirical evidence accumulated until 2011, using official statistics from the OECD data bank and the US Commerce Department, the article addresses the question whether one can, or cannot, speak about generally observable recession/crisis patterns, such that were to be universally recognized in all major industrial countries (the G7). The answer to this question is a firm no. Changes and volatility in most major macroeconomic indicators such as output-gap, labor market distortions and large deviations from trend in consumption and in investment did all, respectively, exhibit wide differences in depth and width across the G7 countries. The large deviations in output-gaps and especially strong distortions in labor market inputs and hours per capita worked over the crisis months can hardly be explained by the existing model classes of DSGE and those of the real business cycle. Especially bothering are the difficulties in fitting the data into any established model whether business cycle or some other types, in which financial distress reduces economic activity. It is argued that standard business cycle models with financial market imperfections have no mechanism for generating deviation from standard theory, thus they do not shed light on the key factors underlying the 2007–2009 recession. That does not imply that the financial crisis is unimportant in understanding the recession, but it does indicate however, that we do not fully understand the channels through which financial distress reduced labor input. Long historical trends on the privately held portion of the federal debt in the US economy indicate that the standard macro proposition of public debt crowding out private investment and thus inhibiting growth, can be strongly challenged in so far as this ratio is neither a direct indicator of growth slowing down, nor for recession.

Buborékok és legendák. Válságok és válságmagyarázatok - II/1. rész. A Déltengeri Társaság (Bubbles and myths crises and explanations II/1.: the South Sea bubble)

A cikk a tulipánmániával foglalkozó tanulmány folytatása (Madarász [2009]). A Déltengeri Társaság 1720-as fellendülése és kipukkadása mindmáig egyike a pénzügyi történelem leghíresebb és leggyakrabban emlegetett buborékainak. A közgazdaságtanban a buborék sokáig nem volt fontos téma, de az utóbbi időben ismét divatba jött. A tanulmány először a buborékmetafora néhány irodalmi példáját mutatja be, majd összefoglalja az angol államadósság kialakulását, a korai modern fiskális-militarista állam létrejöttét és a pénzügyi forradalom különböző interpretációit. A Déltengeri Társaság történetének, az adósság-részvény csere lebonyolításának és a korabeli vélemények spektrumának ismertetése után áttekintést ad arról, milyen módon és céllal használták fel az 1720-as eseményeket közgazdászok és történészek saját magyarázataikban. Ezek skálája a tudatos csalástól a befektetők irracionális mániáján át a racionális buborék kialakulásáig terjed. / === / The first part of the study (published here in 2009) was devoted to "tulipmania". This article continues the account of early bubbles and crises with the 1720 boom and bust of the South Sea Company, which is to this day one of the best known and most cited examples in history. For several decades, bubbles were not seen as an important issue in economic and financial theory, but recent events have focused attention on them again. The author introduces some historical examples of the bubble metaphor in literature, before giving an account of the emergence of British public debt and the fiscal-military state, and summarizing various interpretations of the financial revolution. An account of the South Sea Bubble, a detailed description of the debt-equity swap, and citations from some contemporary investors and observers are followed by an overview of the way the events of 1720 were used subsequently by various economists and historians in their own theorizing and explanations. The interpretations placed on it range from deliberate fraud, through irrational investment mania, to the emergence of a rational bubble.

Buborékok és legendák. Válságok és válságmagyarázatok II/2. rész. A Déltengeri Társaság (Bubbles and myths crises and explanations II/2.: the South Sea bubble)

A cikk a tulipánmániával foglalkozó tanulmány folytatása (Madarász [2009]). A Déltengeri Társaság 1720-as fellendülése és kipukkadása mindmáig egyike a pénzügyi történelem leghíresebb és leggyakrabban emlegetett buborékainak. A közgazdaságtanban a buborék sokáig nem volt fontos téma, de az utóbbi időben ismét divatba jött. A tanulmány először a buborékmetafora néhány irodalmi példáját mutatja be, majd összefoglalja az angol államadósság kialakulását, a korai modern fiskális-militarista állam létrejöttét és a pénzügyi forradalom különböző interpretációit. A Déltengeri Társaság történetének, az adósság-részvény csere lebonyolításának és a korabeli vélemények spektrumának ismertetése után áttekintést ad arról, milyen módon és céllal használták fel az 1720-as eseményeket közgazdászok és történészek saját magyarázataikban. Ezek skálája a tudatos csalástól a befektetők irracionális mániáján át a racionális buborék kialakulásáig terjed. / === / The first part of the study (published here in 2009) was devoted to "tulip-mania". This article continues the account of early bubbles and crises with the 1720 boom and bust of the South Sea Company, which remains to this day one of the best known and most cited examples in history. For several decades, bubbles were not seen as an important issue in economic and financial theory, but recent events have focused attention on them again. The author introduces some historical examples of the bubble metaphor in literature, before describing the emergence of British public debt and the fiscal/military state, and summarizing various interpretations of the financial revolution. An account of the South Sea Bubble, a detailed description of the debt-equity swap, and citations from some contemporary investors and observers are followed by an overview of how the events of 1720 were used subsequently by various economists and historians in their theorizing and explanations. Such interpretations range from deliberate fraud, through irrational investment mania, to the emergence of a rational bubble.