Climate change and water in the UK: past changes and future prospects

Climate change is expected to modify rainfall, temperature and catchment hydrological responses across the world, and adapting to these water-related changes is a pressing challenge. This paper reviews the impact of anthropogenic climate change on water in the UK and looks at projections of future change. The natural variability of the UK climate makes change hard to detect; only historical increases in air temperature can be attributed to anthropogenic climate forcing, but over the last 50 years more winter rainfall has been falling in intense events. Future changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration could lead to changed flow regimes and impacts on water quality, aquatic ecosystems and water availability. Summer flows may decrease on average, but floods may become larger and more frequent. River and lake water quality may decline as a result of higher water temperatures, lower river flows and increased algal blooms in summer, and because of higher flows in the winter. In communicating this important work, researchers should pay particular attention to explaining confidence and uncertainty clearly. Much of the relevant research is either global or highly localized: decision-makers would benefit from more studies that address water and climate change at a spatial and temporal scale appropriate for the decisions they make

Probiotics and prebiotics: prospects for public health and nutritional recommendations

Probiotics and prebiotics are useful interventions for improving human health through direct or indirect effects on the colonizing microbiota. However, translation of these research findings into nutritional recommendations and public health policy endorsements has not been achieved in a manner consistent with the strength of the evidence. More progress has been made with clinical recommendations. Conclusions include that beneficial cultures, including probiotics and live cultures in fermented foods, can contribute towards the health of the general population; prebiotics, in part due to their function as a special type of soluble fiber, can contribute to the health of the general population; and a number of challenges must be addressed in order to fully realize probiotic and prebiotic benefits, including the need for greater awareness of the accumulated evidence on probiotics and prebiotics among policy makers, strategies to cope with regulatory roadblocks to research, and high-quality human trials that address outstanding research questions in the field.

Mining in Ghana’s forests: cross-sectoral linkages and the prospects for REDD

Strategies to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) are being pursued in numerous developing countries. Proponents contest that REDD mechanisms could deliver sustainable development by contributing to both environmental protection and economic development, particularly in poor forest communities. However, among the challenges to REDD, and natural resource management more generally, is the need to develop a comprehensive understanding of cross-sectoral linkages and addressing how they impact the pursuit of sustainable development. Drawing on an exploratory case-study of Ghana, this paper aims to outline the linkages between the forestry and minerals sectors. It is argued that contemporary debates give incommensurate attention to the reclamation of large-scale mine sites located in forest reserves, and neglect to consider more nuanced links which characterise the forestry-mining nexus in Ghana. A review of key stakeholders further elucidates the complex networks which characterise these linkages and highlights the important role of traditional authorities in governing across sectors. If the multiple roles of local resource users and traditional authorities continue to be neglected in policy mechanisms, schemes such as REDD will continue to fall short of achieving sustainable development.

Incentive effects on risk attitude in small probability prospects

We report between-subject results on the effect of monetary stakes on risk attitudes. While we find the typical risk seeking for small probabilities, risk seeking is reduced under high stakes. This suggests that utility is not consistently concave.

The water vapour continuum in near-infrared windows – current understanding and prospects for its inclusion in spectroscopic databases

Spectroscopic catalogues, such as GEISA and HITRAN, do not yet include information on the water vapour continuum that pervades visible, infrared and microwave spectral regions. This is partly because, in some spectral regions, there are rather few laboratory measurements in conditions close to those in the Earth’s atmosphere; hence understanding of the characteristics of the continuum absorption is still emerging. This is particularly so in the near-infrared and visible, where there has been renewed interest and activity in recent years. In this paper we present a critical review focusing on recent laboratory measurements in two near-infrared window regions (centred on 4700 and 6300 cm−1) and include reference to the window centred on 2600 cm−1 where more measurements have been reported. The rather few available measurements, have used Fourier transform spectroscopy (FTS), cavity ring down spectroscopy, optical-feedback – cavity enhanced laser spectroscopy and, in very narrow regions, calorimetric interferometry. These systems have different advantages and disadvantages. Fourier Transform Spectroscopy can measure the continuum across both these and neighbouring windows; by contrast, the cavity laser techniques are limited to fewer wavenumbers, but have a much higher inherent sensitivity. The available results present a diverse view of the characteristics of continuum absorption, with differences in continuum strength exceeding a factor of 10 in the cores of these windows. In individual windows, the temperature dependence of the water vapour self-continuum differs significantly in the few sets of measurements that allow an analysis. The available data also indicate that the temperature dependence differs significantly between different near-infrared windows. These pioneering measurements provide an impetus for further measurements. Improvements and/or extensions in existing techniques would aid progress to a full characterisation of the continuum – as an example, we report pilot measurements of the water vapour self-continuum using a supercontinuum laser source coupled to an FTS. Such improvements, as well as additional measurements and analyses in other laboratories, would enable the inclusion of the water vapour continuum in future spectroscopic databases, and therefore allow for a more reliable forward modelling of the radiative properties of the atmosphere. It would also allow a more confident assessment of different theoretical descriptions of the underlying cause or causes of continuum absorption.

Prospects for biodiversity conservation in the Atlantic Forest: Lessons from aging human-modified landscapes

Recent global assessments have shown the limited coverage of protected areas across tropical biotas, fuelling a growing interest in the potential conservation services provided by anthropogenic landscapes. Here we examine the geographic distribution of biological diversity in the Atlantic Forest of South America, synthesize the most conspicuous forest biodiversity responses to human disturbances, propose further conservation initiatives for this biota, and offer a range of general insights into the prospects of forest species persistence in human-modified tropical forest landscapes worldwide. At the biome scale, the most extensive pre-Columbian habitats across the Atlantic Forest ranged across elevations below 800 masl, which still concentrate most areas within the major centers of species endemism. Unfortunately, up to 88% of the original forest habitat has been lost, mainly across these low to intermediate elevations, whereas protected areas are clearly skewed towards high elevations above 1200 masl. At the landscape scale, most remaining Atlantic Forest cover is embedded within dynamic agro-mosaics including elements such as small forest fragments, early-to-late secondary forest patches and exotic tree mono-cultures. In this sort of aging or long-term modified landscapes, habitat fragmentation appears to effectively drive edge-dominated portions of forest fragments towards an early-successional system, greatly limiting the long-term persistence of forest-obligate and forest-dependent species. However, the extent to which forest habitats approach early-successional systems, thereby threatening the bulk of the Atlantic Forest biodiversity, depends on both past and present landscape configuration. Many elements of human-modified landscapes (e.g. patches of early-secondary forests and tree mono-cultures) may offer excellent conservation opportunities, but they cannot replace the conservation value of protected areas and hitherto unprotected large patches of old-growth forests. Finally, the biodiversity conservation services provided by anthropogenic landscapes across Atlantic Forest and other tropical forest regions can be significantly augmented by coupling biodiversity corridor initiatives with biota-scale attempts to plug existing gaps in the representativeness of protected areas. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Malaria on the Amazonian frontier: Transmission dynamics, risk factors, spatial distribution, and prospects for control

Little follow-up data on malaria transmission in communities originating from frontier settlements in Amazonia are available. Here we describe a cohort study in a frontier settlement in Acre, Brazil, where 509 subjects contributed 489.7 person-years of follow-up. The association between malaria morbidity during the follow-up and individual, household, and spatial covariates was explored with mixed-effects logistic regression models and spatial analysis. Incidence rates for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria were 30.0/100 and 16.3/100 person-years at risk, respectively. Malaria morbidity was strongly associated with land clearing and farming, and decreased after five years of residence in the area, suggesting that clinical immunity develops among subjects exposed to low malaria endemicity. Significant spatial clustering of malaria was observed in the areas of most recent occupation, indicating that the continuous influx of nonimmune settlers to forest-fringe areas perpetuates the cycle of environmental change and colonization that favors malaria transmission in rural Amazonia.

How initial vocational education and training (IVET) teachers in Sweden perceive their prospects of being able to prepare upper secondary school pupils for a future occupation

Vocational teachers in Swedish upper secondary schools are a heterogeneous category of teachers, connected to different types of trade. These teachers represent a broad set of trade skills varying in content and character. In their teacher role, they continue to wear the clothes, speak the language, share the culture and remain mentally in their former professions. Still, it is central that they keep up this contact to be able to school the pupils into the environment of the trade in question, but also to help them to understand what skills a profession demands. However, the individual teacher also has to distance himself from the negative elements in the culture of the profession: patterns and habits that, for various reasons, have to be broken or changed. This paper draws attention to the ways in which a group of vocational teachers, who were participants in a project that aimed to train unauthorized vocational teachers, expressed their ambitions to prepare the pupils for a future professional career. When collecting information, we used the degree dissertations they produced and discussed in seminars, and informal dialogues. The result shows that it is important that the instruction location resembles a real working site as far as possible. These places are more or less realistic copies of a garage, a restaurant kitchen, a hairdressing salon, and so on, in order to give the pupils a realistic setting for instruction. However, the fact that these simulated workplaces lack the necessary support functions that exist in a company creates problems, problems which make a lot of extra work for the teachers. Vocational teachers also have to instruct the pupil in the experienced practitioner’s professional skills and working situation, but the pupil herself/himself must learn the job by doing it in practice. Some vocational upper secondary programs lack relevant course literature and the businesses give little support. This also makes extra work for the teachers. Moreover, the distance between the vocational programs and the trainee jobs was experienced as being difficult to overcome. One reason seems to be differences between businesses and differing preconditions between small and big companies’ abilities to take care of these pupils. The upper secondary school vocational programs also play a role in cementing existing gender roles, as well as perpetuating class-related patterns on the labour market.

How initial vocational education and training (IVET) teachers in Sweden perceive their prospects of being able to prepare upper secondary school pupils for a future occupation

Vocational teachers in Swedish upper secondary schools are a heterogeneous category of teachers, connected to different types of trade. These teachers represent a broad set of trade skills varying in content and character. In their teacher role, they continue to wear the clothes, speak the language, share the culture and remain mentally in their former professions. Still, it is central that they keep up this contact to be able to school the pupils into the environment of the trade in question, but also to help them to understand what skills a profession demands. However, the individual teacher also has to distance himself from the negative elements in the culture of the profession: patterns and habits that, for various reasons, have to be broken or changed. This paper draws attention to the ways in which a group of vocational teachers, who were participants in a project that aimed to train unauthorized vocational teachers, expressed their ambitions to prepare the pupils for a future professional career. When collecting information, we used the degree dissertations they produced and discussed in seminars, and informal dialogues. The result shows that it is important that the instruction location resembles a real working site as far as possible. These places are more or less realistic copies of a garage, a restaurant kitchen, a hairdressing salon, and so on, in order to give the pupils a realistic setting for instruction. However, the fact that these simulated workplaces lack the necessary support functions that exist in a company creates problems, problems which make a lot of extra work for the teachers. Vocational teachers also have to instruct the pupil in the experienced practitioner’s professional skills and working situation, but the pupil herself/himself must learn the job by doing it in practice. Some vocational upper secondary programs lack relevant course literature and the businesses give little support. This also makes extra work for the teachers. Moreover, the distance between the vocational programs and the trainee jobs was experienced as being difficult to overcome. One reason seems to be differences between businesses and differing preconditions between small and big companies’ abilities to take care of these pupils. The upper secondary school vocational programs also play a role in cementing existing gender roles, as well as perpetuating class-related patterns on the labour market.

Prospects for Developing Countries

While developing countries generally shared the sentiment that they were going to suffer from the effects of climate change policy, evidence to the contrary has emerged during the short time since the Kyoto Protocol’s entry into force. Defying expectations that developing nations could only lose from climate change policy, Brazil has shown that it is actually quite possible to benefit significantly from these policies. Brazil has been proactive in developing the infrastructure to become involved in climate change negotiations, as well as using policy tools such as the CDM. Its actions have resulted in significant economic, developmental, and environmental benefits. The case of Brazil allows for some insight into how other countries with similar developmental profiles —specifically China and India—stand to benefit from climate change policy, and how these benefits will translate into policy for future climate negotiations.

Incumbency Reconsidered: Prospects, Strategic Entry, and Incumbent Quality in U.S. House Elections

Efforts to estimate the magnitude of the incumbency effect in U.S. House elections and assess its political meaning have been complicated by two omitted-variables problems. First, in the absence of an adequate measure of incumbent prospects, estimates of the magnitude of the incumbency effect fail to control for selection effects associated with the decision incumbents make about whether to run for reelection. Strategic incumbents enter races they think they can win and withdraw when they expect to lose. The consequence is an upward bias in estimates of incumbents’ electoral advantages. Second, the normative implications of high reelection rates cannot be assessed without measuring incumbent quality, since a possible explanation for their electoral success is that incumbents are of high quality and doing a good job. We propose a strategy for measuring incumbent prospects and quality, demonstrate the strategic nature of incumbent and challenger entry, re-estimate the incumbency effect, and show that incumbent quality has an impact on electoral outcomes. Our conclusion is that incumbents’ advantages in House elections have been over estimated while the positive basis of incumbent safety is typically under appreciated.