Growth and Survival Determinants of Chinese Private Firms: Fieldwork evidence and econometric estimates

This paper reports on one of the first empirical attempts to investigate small firm growth and survival, and their determinants, in the Peoples’ Republic of China. The work is based on field work evidence gathered from a sample of 83 Chinese private firms (mainly SMEs) collected initially by face-to-face interviews, and subsequently by follow-up telephone interviews a year later. We extend the models of Gibrat (1931) and Jovanovic (1982), which traditionally focus on size and age alone (e.g. Brock and Evans, 1986), to a ‘comprehensive’ growth model with two types of additional explanatory variables: firm-specific (e.g. business planning); and environmental (e.g. choice of location). We estimate two econometric models: a ‘basic’ age-size-growth model; and a ‘comprehensive’ growth model, using Heckman’s two-step regression procedure. Estimation is by log-linear regression on cross-section data, with corrections for sample selection bias and heteroskedasticity. Our results refute a pure Gibrat model (but support a more general variant) and support the learning model, as regards the consequences of size and age for growth; and our extension to a comprehensive model highlights the importance of location choice and customer orientation for the growth of Chinese private firms. In the latter model, growth is explained by variables like planning, R&D orientation, market competition, elasticity of demand etc. as well as by control variables. Our work on small firm growth achieves two things. First, it upholds the validity of ‘basic’ size-age-growth models, and successfully applies them to the Chinese economy. Second, it extends the compass of such models to a ‘comprehensive’ growth model incorporating firm-specific and environmental variables.

Firm survival, uncertainty and financial frictions: Is there a financial uncertainty accelerator?

Using a large panel of unquoted UK over the period 2000-09, we examine the impact of firm-specific uncertainty on corporate failures. In this context we also distinguish between firms which are likely to be more or less dependant on bank finance as well as public and non-public companies. Our results document a significant effect of uncertainty on firm survival. This link is found to be more potent during the recent financial crisis compared with tranquil periods. We also uncover significant firm-level heterogeneity since the survival chance of bank-dependent and non-public firms are most affected by changes in uncertainty, especially during the recent global financial crisis.

Firm survival, uncertainty and financial frictions: Is there a financial uncertainty accelerator?

Using a large panel of unquoted UK firms over the period 2000-09, we examine the impact of firm-specific uncertainty on corporate failures. In this context we also distinguish between firms which are likely to be more or less dependent on bank finance as well as public and non-public companies. Our results document a significant effect of uncertainty on firm survival. This link is found to be more potent during the recent financial crisis compared with tranquil periods. We also uncover significant firm-level heterogeneity since the survival chances of bank-dependent and non-public firms are most affected by changes in uncertainty, especially during the recent global financial crisis.

Influence of temperature on survival, growth and fecundity of the freshwater snail Indoplanorbis exustus (Deshayes)

To note the effect of temperature on survival, growth and fecundity, newly hatched (zero day old) snails Indoplanorbis exustus were cultured at 10 degrees, 15 degrees, 20 degrees, 25 degrees, 30 degrees and 35 degreescentigrades constant temperatures and room temperature (17.5 degrees - 32.5 degrees centigrades). Individuals exposed to 10 degrees centigrades died within 3 days while those reared at 15 degrees, 20 degrees, 25 degrees, 30 degrees, 35 degrees centigrades and room temperature survived for a period of 6, 27, 18, 16, 12 and 17 weeks respectively. An individual added on an average 0.21 mm and 0.45 mg, 0.35 mm and 7.94 mg, 0.63 mm and 15.5 mg, 0.81 mm and 27.18 mg, 1.07 mm and 41.48 mg and 0.78 mm and 31.2 mg to the shell diameter and body weight respectively at those temperatures per week. The snails cultured at 15 degrees centigrades died prior to attainment of sexual maturity. On an average, an individual produced 31.9 and 582.77, 54.86 and 902.18, 56.01 and 968.45, 49.32 and 798.68 and 62.34 and 1143.97 capsules and eggs respectively at 20 degrees, 25 degrees, 30 degrees, 35 degrees centigrades and room temperature (17.5 degrees - 32.5 degrees centigrades).

Anti-tumor necrosis factor drug survival in axial spondyloarthritis is independent of the classification criteria.

To compare the impact of meeting specific classification criteria [modified New York (mNY), European Spondyloarthropathy Study Group (ESSG), and Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society (ASAS) criteria] on anti-tumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF) drug retention, and to determine predictive factors of better drug survival. All patients fulfilling the ESSG criteria for axial spondyloarthritis (SpA) with available data on the axial ASAS and mNY criteria, and who had received at least one anti-TNF treatment were retrospectively retrieved in a single academic institution in Switzerland. Drug retention was computed using survival analysis (Kaplan-Meier), adjusted for potential confounders. Of the 137 patients classified as having axial SpA using the ESSG criteria, 112 also met the ASAS axial SpA criteria, and 77 fulfilled the mNY criteria. Drug retention rates at 12 and 24 months for the first biologic therapy were not significantly different between the diagnostic groups. Only the small ASAS non-classified axial SpA group (25 patients) showed a nonsignificant trend toward shorter drug survival. Elevated CRP level, but not the presence of bone marrow edema on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans, was associated with significantly better drug retention (OR 7.9, ICR 4-14). In this cohort, anti-TNF drug survival was independent of the classification criteria. Elevated CRP level, but not positive MRI, was associated with better drug retention.

Plasma Level of Mmp-9 as Predictive Factor for Response and Progression Free Survival in Patients Treated with Bevacizumab (Bev) and Pegylated Liposomal Doxorubicin (Pld): Sakk 24/06

Background: There is currently no identified marker predicting benefit from Bev in patients with breast cancer (pts). We monitored prospectively 6 angiogenesis-related factors in the blood of advanced stage pts treated with a combination of Bev and PLD in a phase II trial of the Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research, SAKK.Methods: Pts received PLD (20 mg/m2) and Bev (10 mg/kg) every 2 weeks for a maximum of 12 administrations, followed by Bev monotherapy until progression or severe toxicity. Blood samples were collected at baseline, during treatment and at treatment discontinuation. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (Quantikine, R&DSystems and Reliatech) were used to measure vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), placental growth factor (PlGF), matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP-9) and soluble VEGF receptors -1, -2 and -3. The natural log-transformed (ln) data for each factor was analyzed by analysis of variance (ANOVA) model to investigate differences between the mean values of the subgroups of interest (where a = 0.05), based on the best tumor response by RECIST.Results: 132 samples were collected in 41 pts. The mean of baseline ln MMP-9 levels was significantly lower in pts with tumor progression than those with tumor response (p=0.0202, log fold change=0.8786) or disease control (p=0.0035, log fold change=0.8427). Higher MMP-9 level was a significant predictor of superior progression free survival (PFS): p=0.0417, hazard ratio=0.574, 95% CI=0.336-0.979. In a multivariate cox proportional hazards model, containing performance status, disease free interval, number of tumor sites, visceral involvement and prior adjuvant chemotherapy, using stepwise regression baseline MMP-9 was still a statistically 117P Table 1. SOLTI-0701* AC01B07* NU07B1* SOR+CAP N=20 PL+CAP N=33 SOR+ GEM/CAP N=23 PL+ GEM/CAP N=27 SOR+PAC N=48 PL+PAC N=46 Baseline characteristics Age, median (range), y 49 (32-72) 53 (30-78 54 (32-69) 57 (31-82) 50 (27-80) 52 (23-74) AJCC stage, n (%) IIIB/IIIC 3 (15) 6 (18) 0 (0) 3 (11) 8 (17) 9 (20) IV 17 (85) 27 (82) 23 (100) 24 (89) 40 (83) 37 (80) Metastatic site, n (%) Non-visceral 3 (15) 6 (18) 7 (30) 6 (22) 9 (19) 17 (37) Visceral 17 (85) 27 (82) 16 (70) 21 (78) 39 (81) 29 (63) Prior metastatic chemo, n (%) 8 (40) 15 (45) 21 (91) 25 (93) - - Efficacy PFS, median, mo 4.3 2.5 3.1 2.6 5.6 5.5 HR (95% CI)_ 0.60 (0.31, 1.14) 0.57 (0.30, 1.09) 0.86 (0.50, 1.45) 1-sided P value_ 0.055 0.044 0.281 Overall survival, median, mo 17.5 16.1 Pending 14.7 18.2 HR (95% CI)_ 0.98 (0.50, 1.89) 1.11 (0.64, 1.94) 1-sided P value_ 0.476 0.352 Safety N=20 N=33 N=22 N=27 N=46 N=46 Tx-emergent Grade 3/4, n (%) 15 (75) 16 (48) 20 (91) 17 (63) 36 (78) 16 (35) Grade 3§ hand-foot skin reaction/ syndrome 8 (40) 5 (15) 8 (36) 0 (0) 14 (30) 2 (4) *Efficacy results based on intent-to-treat population and safety results based on safety population (pts who received study drug[s]); _Cox regression within each subgroup; _log-rank test within each subgroup; §maximum toxicity grade for hand-foot skin reaction/syndrome; AJCC, American Joint Committee on Cancer mittedabstractsª The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com Downloaded from annonc.oxfordjournals.org at Bibliotheque Cantonale et Universitaire on June 6, 2011 significant factor (p=0.0266). The results of the other measured factors were presented elsewhere.Conclusions: Higher levels of MMP-9 could predict tumor response and superior PFSin pts treated with a combination of Bev and PLD. These exploratory results justify further investigations of MMP-9 in pts treated with Bev combinations in order to assess its role as a prognostic and predictive factor.Disclosure: K. Zaman: Participation in advisory board of Roche; partial sponsoring ofthe study by Roche (the main sponsor was the Swiss Federation against Cancer (Oncosuisse)). B. Thu¨rlimann: stock of Roche; Research grants from Roche. R. vonMoos: Participant of Advisory Board and Speaker honoraria

Comparable Survival Between HIV+ and HIV- non-Hodgkin and Hodgkin Lymphoma Patients Undergoing Autologous Peripheral Blood Stem Cell Transplantation.

Autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) has been successfully used in HIV-related lymphoma (HIV-Ly) patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy. We report the first comparative analysis between HIV-Ly and a matched cohort of HIV(-) lymphoma patients. This retrospective European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation study included 53 patients (66% non-Hodgkin and 34% Hodgkin lymphoma) within each cohort. Both groups were comparable except for the higher proportion of males, mixed-cellularity Hodgkin lymphoma and patients receiving granulocyte colony-stimulating factor before engraftment and a smaller proportion receiving total body irradiation-based conditioning within the HIV-Ly cohort. Incidence of relapse, overall survival, and progression-free survival were similar in both cohorts. A higher nonrelapse mortality within the first year after ASCT was observed in the HIV-Ly group (8% vs 2%), predominantly because of early bacterial infections, although this was not statistically significant and did not influence survival. Thus, within the highly active antiretroviral therapy era, HIV patients should be considered for ASCT according to the same criteria adopted for HIV(-) lymphoma patients.

MMP-9 as predictive factor for response and progression free survival in breast cancer patients treated with bevacizumab and pegylated liposomal doxorubicin. A multicenter, single-arm phase II trial (SAKK24/06). On behalf of the Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research (SAKK).

The benefit of bevacizumab (Bv) has been shown in different tumors including colorectal cancer, renal cancer, pulmonary non-small cell cancer and also breast cancer. However to date, there is no established test evaluating the angiogenic status of a patient and monitoring the effects of anti-angiogenic treatments. Tumor angiogenesis is the result of a balance between multiple pro- and anti¬angiogenic molecules. There is very little published clinical data exploring the impact of the anti-angiogenic therapy on the different angiogenesis-related molecules and the potential role of these molecules as prognostic or predictive factors.

Pseudoprogression after high-dose busulfan-thiotepa with autologous stem cell transplantation and radiation therapy in children with brain tumor: impact on survival

Objective: To demonstrate the incidence, time course, predisposing factor and reversibility of neurotoxicity in children with brain tumors treated with high dose busulfan-thiotepa with autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) and radiation therapy in our institutional experience.Materials and Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data. Between May 1988 and May 2007, 110 patients, median age 3.6 years (range, 1 months-15.3 years), with brain tumors were treated with surgical intervention and conventional chemotherapy. All patients received one course of high-dose busulfan-thiotepa with stem cell rescue, followed or preceded by radiotherapy.Results: Twenty-three patients (21%) developed neuroradiological abnormalities on follow-up imaging studies at a median time of 9.2 months (range, 5.6-17.3 months) after day 0 of ASCT. All MRI-lesions appeared in patients receiving radiotherapy after ASCT and were localized inside the 50-55 Gy isodoses. They disappeared in 14 of 23 patients with a median time of 8 months (range, 3-17 months). The presence of MRI-abnormalities was a favorable prognostic factor for overall survival on univariate analysis (hazard ratio: 0.12, 95% confidence interval [0.04, 0.33]), with a 5-year overall survival in patients with MRI-abnormalities of 84% (95% CI, 62-94), comparedto 27% (95% CI, 19-37) in those without lesions. On multivariate analysis, the presence of MRI-abnormalities was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival.Conclusion: MRI-detectable brain abnormalities are common early findings in children treated with high-dose busulfan-thiotepa followed by radiation therapy, and may mimic early tumor recurrence. They are correlated with a better outcome.

One-year survival and neurological outcome after pediatric cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

OBJECTIVE: Reported survival after cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) in children varies considerably. We aimed to identify predictors of 1-year survival and to assess long-term neurological status after in- or outpatient CPR. DESIGN: Retrospective review of the medical records and prospective follow-up of CPR survivors. SETTING: Tertiary care pediatric university hospital. PATIENTS AND METHODS: During a 30-month period, 89 in- and outpatients received advanced CPR. Survivors of CPR were prospectively followed-up for 1 year. Neurological outcome was assessed by the Pediatric Cerebral Performance Category scale (PCPC). Variables predicting 1-year survival were identified by multivariable logistic regression analysis. INTERVENTIONS: None. RESULTS: Seventy-one of the 89 patients were successfully resuscitated. During subsequent hospitalization do-not-resuscitate orders were issued in 25 patients. At 1 year, 48 (54%) were alive, including two of the 25 patients with out-of-hospital CPR. All patients died, who required CPR after trauma or near drowning, when CPR began >10 min after arrest or with CPR duration >60 min. Prolonged CPR (21-60 min) was compatible with survival (five of 19). At 1 year, 77% of the survivors had the same PCPC score as prior to CPR. Predictors of survival were location of resuscitation, CPR during peri- or postoperative care, and duration of resuscitation. A clinical score (0-15 points) based on these three items yielded an area under the ROC of 0.93. CONCLUSIONS: Independent determinants of long-term survival of pediatric resuscitation are location of arrest, underlying cause, and duration of CPR. Long-term survivors have little or no change in neurological status.

Effects of Bayluscide WP 70® on the Survival and Water-leaving Behaviour of Biomphalaria straminea, Snail Host of Schistosomiasis in Northeast Brazil

The toxic and behavioural effects of niclosamide (Bayluscide WP 70®) on Biomphalaria straminea from a highly endemic area of schistosomiasis in northeastern Brazil were investigated through laboratory bioassays. The LD50 and LD90 were 0.114 mg/l and 0.212 mg/l, respectively. Water-leaving behaviour occurred among 14% to 30% of the snails in the presence of sublethal doses of niclosamide and among 16% of the controls. It was concluded that both the relatively low susceptibility to niclosamide and water-leaving behaviour of local B. straminea may be responsible for the recolonization of transmission foci after mollusciciding. It was suggested that recently improved measures of snail control, such as controlled-release formulations of niclosamide and plant molluscicides should be considered in areas where snail control is recommended

IDH1/IDH2 mutations predict survival in glioma and AML

Mutations in the isocitrate dehydrogenase family genes 1 or 2 (IDH1/2) have been discovered by high through put sequencing approaches inglioma and acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and related myeloproliferativeneoplasms. In both diseases, the discovery of IDH mutations has identifieda prognostically new subtype with distinct pathogenetic evolution. Ingliomas mutations are mostly found in IDH1 (>90%). They are infrequent inprimary glioblastoma (GBM) (<10%), but common in secondary GBM thatevolve from lower grade glioma (60−90%). Mutations in IDH1 precede p53mutations or 1p/19q co-deletions in sporadic low grade glioma, hence arean early evant. Co-deletions of 1p/19q, characteristic for oligodenroglioma,are highly associated with IDH1/2 mutations, while they are mutuallyexclusive with EGFR amplifications, a hall mark of primary GBM. IDH1 or 2mutations are associated with younger patient age, but absent in childhoodgliomas, and have a better prognosis that seems to be consistent in gradeII through IV gliomas. In myeloid malignancies mutations are more likelyin IDH2 and are found in de novo and secondary AML (12−18%) andpre-leukemic clonal malignancies (5% chronic; 20% transformed). IDH1/2mutations are strongly associated with NPM1 mutations that are found in30% of novo cytogenetically normal AML. In CN-AML with mutated NPM1,without FLT3 internal tandem duplication (ITD) IDH mutations constitutean adverse prognostic factor. Mutations in the metabolic enzymes IDH1 or2 result in a neomorphic reaction, generating high levels of the metabolite2-hydroxyglutarate (2-HG). IDH mutations are mutually exclusive with TET2mutations in myeloid malignancies that led to the discovery that high levelsof 2-HG inhibit the a-KG dependent dioxygenase TET2. TET2 is involved inepigenetic regulation and mediates demethylation of DNA. This mechanismis in accordance with the association of a methylator phenotype with loss offunction of TET2 by mutation or indirectly by mutation of IDH1/2 in myeloidmalignancies and gliomas, respectively.Metabolism meets Epigenetics. These discoveries will have importantclinical implications: IDH1/2 mutants may serve as unique targets fortherapy. Further, the high concentrations of the onco-metabolite 2-HGgenerated by IDH1/2 mutants, may serve as biomarker in the serum ofpatients with myeloid malignancies and may be amenable by magneticresonance spectroscopy in glioma patients.

Promising survival for patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma multiforme treated with concomitant radiation plus temozolomide followed by adjuvant temozolomide.

PURPOSE: Temozolomide is a novel oral alkylating agent with demonstrated efficacy as second-line therapy for patients with recurrent anaplastic astrocytoma and glioblastoma multiforme (GBM). This phase II study was performed to determine the safety, tolerability, and efficacy of concomitant radiation plus temozolomide therapy followed by adjuvant temozolomide therapy in patients with newly diagnosed GBM. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Sixty-four patients were enrolled onto this open-label, phase II trial. Temozolomide (75 mg/m(2)/d x 7 d/wk for 6 weeks) was administered orally concomitant with fractionated radiotherapy (60 Gy total dose: 2 Gy x 5 d/wk for 6 weeks) followed by temozolomide monotherapy (200 mg/m(2)/d x 5 days, every 28 days for six cycles). The primary end points were safety and tolerability, and the secondary end point was overall survival. RESULTS: Concomitant radiation plus temozolomide therapy was safe and well tolerated. Nonhematologic toxicities were rare and mild to moderate in severity. During the concomitant treatment phase, grade 3 or 4 neutropenia, thrombocytopenia, or both were observed in 6% of patients, including two severe infections with Pneumocystis carinii. During adjuvant temozolomide, 2% and 6% of cycles were associated with grade 3 and 4 neutropenia or thrombocytopenia, respectively. Median survival was 16 months, and the 1- and 2-year survival rates were 58% and 31%, respectively. Patients younger than 50 years old and patients who underwent debulking surgery had the best survival outcome. CONCLUSION: Continuous daily temozolomide and concomitant radiation is safe. This regimen of concomitant chemoradiotherapy followed by adjuvant chemotherapy may prolong the survival of patients with glioblastoma. Further investigation is warranted, and a randomized trial is ongoing.