Application of the european customer satisfaction index to postal services. Structural equation models versus partial least squars

Customer satisfaction and retention are key issues for organizations in today’s competitive market place. As such, much research and revenue has been invested in developing accurate ways of assessing consumer satisfaction at both the macro (national) and micro (organizational) level, facilitating comparisons in performance both within and between industries. Since the instigation of the national customer satisfaction indices (CSI), partial least squares (PLS) has been used to estimate the CSI models in preference to structural equation models (SEM) because they do not rely on strict assumptions about the data. However, this choice was based upon some misconceptions about the use of SEM’s and does not take into consideration more recent advances in SEM, including estimation methods that are robust to non-normality and missing data. In this paper, both SEM and PLS approaches were compared by evaluating perceptions of the Isle of Man Post Office Products and Customer service using a CSI format. The new robust SEM procedures were found to be advantageous over PLS. Product quality was found to be the only driver of customer satisfaction, while image and satisfaction were the only predictors of loyalty, thus arguing for the specificity of postal services

Adaptively weighted maximum likelihood estimation of discrete distributions

SummaryDiscrete data arise in various research fields, typically when the observations are count data.I propose a robust and efficient parametric procedure for estimation of discrete distributions. The estimation is done in two phases. First, a very robust, but possibly inefficient, estimate of the model parameters is computed and used to indentify outliers. Then the outliers are either removed from the sample or given low weights, and a weighted maximum likelihood estimate (WML) is computed.The weights are determined via an adaptive process such that if the data follow the model, then asymptotically no observation is downweighted.I prove that the final estimator inherits the breakdown point of the initial one, and that its influence function at the model is the same as the influence function of the maximum likelihood estimator, which strongly suggests that it is asymptotically fully efficient.The initial estimator is a minimum disparity estimator (MDE). MDEs can be shown to have full asymptotic efficiency, and some MDEs have very high breakdown points and very low bias under contamination. Several initial estimators are considered, and the performances of the WMLs based on each of them are studied.It results that in a great variety of situations the WML substantially improves the initial estimator, both in terms of finite sample mean square error and in terms of bias under contamination. Besides, the performances of the WML are rather stable under a change of the MDE even if the MDEs have very different behaviors.Two examples of application of the WML to real data are considered. In both of them, the necessity for a robust estimator is clear: the maximum likelihood estimator is badly corrupted by the presence of a few outliers.This procedure is particularly natural in the discrete distribution setting, but could be extended to the continuous case, for which a possible procedure is sketched.RésuméLes données discrètes sont présentes dans différents domaines de recherche, en particulier lorsque les observations sont des comptages.Je propose une méthode paramétrique robuste et efficace pour l'estimation de distributions discrètes. L'estimation est faite en deux phases. Tout d'abord, un estimateur très robuste des paramètres du modèle est calculé, et utilisé pour la détection des données aberrantes (outliers). Cet estimateur n'est pas nécessairement efficace. Ensuite, soit les outliers sont retirés de l'échantillon, soit des faibles poids leur sont attribués, et un estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance pondéré (WML) est calculé.Les poids sont déterminés via un processus adaptif, tel qu'asymptotiquement, si les données suivent le modèle, aucune observation n'est dépondérée.Je prouve que le point de rupture de l'estimateur final est au moins aussi élevé que celui de l'estimateur initial, et que sa fonction d'influence au modèle est la même que celle du maximum de vraisemblance, ce qui suggère que cet estimateur est pleinement efficace asymptotiquement.L'estimateur initial est un estimateur de disparité minimale (MDE). Les MDE sont asymptotiquement pleinement efficaces, et certains d'entre eux ont un point de rupture très élevé et un très faible biais sous contamination. J'étudie les performances du WML basé sur différents MDEs.Le résultat est que dans une grande variété de situations le WML améliore largement les performances de l'estimateur initial, autant en terme du carré moyen de l'erreur que du biais sous contamination. De plus, les performances du WML restent assez stables lorsqu'on change l'estimateur initial, même si les différents MDEs ont des comportements très différents.Je considère deux exemples d'application du WML à des données réelles, où la nécessité d'un estimateur robuste est manifeste : l'estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance est fortement corrompu par la présence de quelques outliers.La méthode proposée est particulièrement naturelle dans le cadre des distributions discrètes, mais pourrait être étendue au cas continu.

Constructing brain functional networks from EEG: partial and unpartial correlations.

We consider electroencephalograms (EEGs) of healthy individuals and compare the properties of the brain functional networks found through two methods: unpartialized and partialized cross-correlations. The networks obtained by partial correlations are fundamentally different from those constructed through unpartial correlations in terms of graph metrics. In particular, they have completely different connection efficiency, clustering coefficient, assortativity, degree variability, and synchronization properties. Unpartial correlations are simple to compute and they can be easily applied to large-scale systems, yet they cannot prevent the prediction of non-direct edges. In contrast, partial correlations, which are often expensive to compute, reduce predicting such edges. We suggest combining these alternative methods in order to have complementary information on brain functional networks.

Speech and oromotor deficits of epileptic origin in benign partial epilepsy of childhood with rolandic spikes (BPERS). Relationship to the acquired aphasia-epilepsy syndrome.

The authors report three children who suffered temporary oromotor or speech disturbances as focal epileptic manifestations within the frame of benign partial epilepsy of childhood with rolandic spikes and review similar cases described in the literature. The deficit can occur as an initial symptom of the disorder without visible epileptic seizures and interferes in a variable way with simple voluntary oromotor functions or complex movements including speech production, depending on the exact location and spread of the discharging epileptic focus around the perisylvian region. The most severe deficit produces the anterior operculum syndrome. More subtle non-linguistic deficits such as intermittent drooling, oromotor apraxia or dysfluency, as well as linguistic ones involving phonologic production, can occur. The rapidity of onset, progression and recovery of the deficit is very variable as well as its duration and presumably reflects the degree of epileptic activity. In some cases, rapid improvement with antiepileptic medication occurs and coincidence between the paroxysmal EEG activity (which is usually bilateral) and the functional deficit is seen. The clinical and EEG profile of the seizures disorder and the dynamic of the deficit in these cases bear a strong resemblance to what is seen in the acquired epilepsy-aphasia syndrome (Landau and Kleffner). The variations in clinical symptoms appear more related to the main site, local extension and bilaterality of the epileptic foci rather than a basic difference in physiopathology.

La néphrectomie partielle dans le cancer du rein: un nouveau standard [Partial nephrectomy in renal cancer: a new standard?]

Rising renal cell carcinoma incidence is in relationship with early diagnosis during radiological exams. Radical nephrectomy was the gold standard treatment for 30 years. Partial nephrectomy is nowadays a validated therapeutic option for renal cell carcinoma up to 7 cm with comparable oncological results associated with better life quality and survival. Partial nephrectomy is tricky and laparoscopic approach remains reserved for expert centers.

Ex-vivo ultrasound control of resection margins during partial nephrectomy

Introduction: Surgery represents the treatment of choice for localized renal cell neoplasia. Partial nephrectomy (PN) has widened its indications over the past two decades and has shown oncological results equivalent to radical nephrectomy for small tumors. The role of negative surgical margins has been widely debated. Intraoperative fresh frozen section analysis is shown to be unreliable, expensive, time-consuming and not well correlated to final pathology. The goal of the present study was to assess the feasibility of intraoperative ex-vivo ultrasound (US) control of resection margins and its correlation to margin status at definitive pathology in patients undergoing PN.Material and Methods: The study was carried out in our institution from February 2008 to March 2010. Patients undergoing PN for T1-T2 renal tumors were included. Ex vivo US was performed by one single senior radiologist. Considering its availability, not all consecutive eligible patients were included. PN was undertaken in a standardized technique applying the "minimal healthy tissue margin" technique. Once resected, the specimen was kept in a saline solution and ex-vivo US was performed to evaluate the whole tumor pseudocapsule.Results: Twelve patients (five women, age (mean}SD) 65}11 years) were included. Intraoperative ex-vivo US showed negative surgical margin in all cases. US duration ranged from 1 to 4 minutes, with a median time of 1 minute. Definitive histological analysis confirmed the presence of two angiomyolipoma, eight pT1a tumors, of which seven were clear cell carcinoma and one was a type II papillary tumor, one pT1b clear cell carcinoma and one pT2 chromophobe carcinoma (size 2.9}2.3 cm). Final pathology revealed R0 margins.Conclusion: Intraoperative ex-vivo US control of resection margins in patients undergoing PN is feasible, time-efficient and well correlated to definitive pathological examination with regards to margin status.

On the use of the likelihood ratio for forensic evaluation: response to Fenton et al.

This letter to the Editor comments on the article When 'neutral' evidence still has probative value (with implications from the Barry George Case) by N. Fenton et al. [[1], 2014].

Partial gene deletion of endothelial nitric oxide synthase predisposes to exaggerated high-fat diet-induced insulin resistance and arterial hypertension.

Nitric oxide (NO) plays a major role in the regulation of cardiovascular and metabolic homeostasis, as evidenced by insulin resistance and arterial hypertension in endothelial NO synthase (eNOS) null mice. Extrapolation of these findings to humans is difficult, however, because eNOS gene deficiency has not been reported. eNOS gene polymorphism and impaired NO synthesis, however, have been reported in several cardiovascular disease states and could predispose to insulin resistance. High-fat diet induces insulin resistance and arterial hypertension in normal mice. To test whether partial eNOS deficiency facilitates the development of insulin resistance and arterial hypertension during metabolic stress, we examined effects of an 8-week high-fat diet on insulin sensitivity (euglycemic clamp) and arterial pressure in eNOS(+/-) mice. When fed a normal diet, these mice had normal insulin sensitivity and were normotensive. When fed a high-fat diet, however, eNOS(+/-) mice developed exaggerated arterial hypertension and had fasting hyperinsulinemia and a 35% lower insulin-stimulated glucose utilization than control mice. The partial deletion of the eNOS gene does not alter insulin sensitivity or blood pressure in mice. When challenged with nutritional stress, however, partial eNOS deficiency facilitates the development of insulin resistance and arterial hypertension, providing further evidence for the importance of this gene in linking metabolic and cardiovascular disease.

Aitchison Geometry for Probability and Likelihood as a new approach to mathematical statistics

The Aitchison vector space structure for the simplex is generalized to a Hilbert space structure A2(P) for distributions and likelihoods on arbitrary spaces. Centralnotations of statistics, such as Information or Likelihood, can be identified in the algebraical structure of A2(P) and their corresponding notions in compositional data analysis, such as Aitchison distance or centered log ratio transform.In this way very elaborated aspects of mathematical statistics can be understoodeasily in the light of a simple vector space structure and of compositional data analysis. E.g. combination of statistical information such as Bayesian updating,combination of likelihood and robust M-estimation functions are simple additions/perturbations in A2(Pprior). Weighting observations corresponds to a weightedaddition of the corresponding evidence.Likelihood based statistics for general exponential families turns out to have aparticularly easy interpretation in terms of A2(P). Regular exponential families formfinite dimensional linear subspaces of A2(P) and they correspond to finite dimensionalsubspaces formed by their posterior in the dual information space A2(Pprior).The Aitchison norm can identified with mean Fisher information. The closing constant itself is identified with a generalization of the cummulant function and shown to be Kullback Leiblers directed information. Fisher information is the local geometry of the manifold induced by the A2(P) derivative of the Kullback Leibler information and the space A2(P) can therefore be seen as the tangential geometry of statistical inference at the distribution P.The discussion of A2(P) valued random variables, such as estimation functionsor likelihoods, give a further interpretation of Fisher information as the expected squared norm of evidence and a scale free understanding of unbiased reasoning

Seeing the Wood through the Trees: The Current State of Higher Systematics in the Strepsirhini.

Strepsirhines comprise 10 living or recently extinct families, ≥50% of extant primate families. Their phylogenetic relationships have been intensively studied, but common topologies have only recently emerged; e.g. all recent reconstructions link the Lepilemuridae and Cheirogaleidae. The position of the indriids, however, remains uncertain, and molecular studies have placed them as the sister to every clade except Daubentonia, the preferred sister group of morphologists. The node subtending Afro-Asian lorisids has been similarly elusive. We probed these phylogenetic inconsistencies using a test data set including 20 strepsirhine taxa and 2 outgroups represented by 3,543 mtDNA base pairs, and 43 selected morphological characters, subjecting the data to maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference analyses, and reconstructing topology and node ages jointly from the molecular data using relaxed molecular clock analyses. Our permutations yielded compatible but not identical evolutionary histories, and currently popular techniques seem unable to deal adequately with morphological data. We investigated the influence of morphological characters on tree topologies, and examined the effect of taxon sampling in two experiments: (1) we removed the molecular data only for 5 endangered Malagasy taxa to simulate 'extinction leaving a fossil record'; (2) we removed both the sequence and morphological data for these taxa. Topologies were affected more by the inclusion of morphological data only, indicating that palaeontological studies that involve inserting a partial morphological data set into a combined data matrix of extant species should be interpreted with caution. The gap of approximately 10 million years between the daubentoniid divergence and those of the other Malagasy families deserves more study. The apparently contemporaneous divergence of African and non-daubentoniid Malagasy families 40-30 million years ago may be related to regional plume-induced uplift followed by a global period of cooling and drying. © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Partial cricotracheal resection for severe pediatric subglottic stenosis: update of the Lausanne experience.

Until recently, severe pediatric subglottic stenosis (SGS) has been treated almost exclusively by laryngotracheoplasty procedures. Even in the most experienced centers, the results of single-stage operations for Cotton's grade III and IV stenoses have been disappointing. This paper reports our experience on 31 partial cricotracheal resections for severe SGS in infants and children. The stenosis was congenital in 6 cases and acquired after prolonged intubation in 25 cases. Twenty-seven patients were tracheotomy-dependent at the time of surgery. Twenty-two cases were classified as grade III and 9 cases as grade IV stenoses according to Cotton. The decannulation rate was 97% (30 of 31 cases) after an open procedure. There were no fatalities and no lesions to the recurrent laryngeal nerves, but there was 1 complete restenosis. Twenty-seven patients show no exertional dyspnea, 3 have a slight stridor with some dyspnea while exercising, and 1 patient is not decannulated. The voice is normal in 21 cases, a dysphonia is present in 9 cases, and the patient with complete restenosis acquired an esophageal voice. Postoperative follow-up is longer than 10 years in 8 cases and longer than 5 years in an additional 6 cases. All patients who reached adulthood show normal growth of the larynx and trachea. Considering the excellent results obtained in this consecutive series of 31 cases, partial cricoid resection with primary thyrotracheal anastomosis should be considered an important treatment option for severe SGS in infants and children.

Restless bandits, partial conservation laws and indexability

We show that if performance measures in a stochastic scheduling problem satisfy a set of so-called partial conservation laws (PCL), which extend previously studied generalized conservation laws (GCL), then the problem is solved optimally by a priority-index policy for an appropriate range of linear performance objectives, where the optimal indices are computed by a one-pass adaptive-greedy algorithm, based on Klimov's. We further apply this framework to investigate the indexability property of restless bandits introduced by Whittle, obtaining the following results: (1) we identify a class of restless bandits (PCL-indexable) which are indexable; membership in this class is tested through a single run of the adaptive-greedy algorithm, which also computes the Whittle indices when the test is positive; this provides a tractable sufficient condition for indexability; (2) we further indentify the class of GCL-indexable bandits, which includes classical bandits, having the property that they are indexable under any linear reward objective. The analysis is based on the so-called achievable region method, as the results follow fromnew linear programming formulations for the problems investigated.