Atmosphere-ocean coupled processes in the Madden-Julian oscillation

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a convectively coupled 30-70 day (intraseasonal) tropical atmospheric mode that drives variations in global weather, but which is poorly simulated in most atmospheric general circulation models. Over the past two decades, field campaigns and modeling experiments have suggested that tropical atmosphere-ocean interactions may sustain or amplify the pattern of enhanced and suppressed atmospheric convection that defines the MJO, and encourage its eastward propagation through the Indian and Pacific Oceans. New observations collected during the past decade have advanced our understand of the ocean response to atmospheric MJO forcing and the resulting intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations. Numerous modeling studies have revealed a considerable impact of the mean state on MJO ocean-atmosphere coupled processes, as well as the importance of resolving the diurnal cycle of atmosphere--upper-ocean interactions. New diagnostic methods provide insight to atmospheric variability and physical processes associated with the MJO, but offer limited insight on the role of ocean feedbacks. Consequently, uncertainty remains concerning the role of the ocean in MJO theory. Our understanding of how atmosphere-ocean coupled processes affect the MJO can be improved by collecting observations in poorly sampled regions of MJO activity, assessing oceanic and atmospheric drivers of surface fluxes, improving the representation of upper-ocean mixing in coupled-model simulations, designing model experiments that minimize mean-state differences, and developing diagnostic tools to evaluate the nature and role of coupled ocean-atmosphere processes over the MJO cycle.

Investigating the relationship between Eurasian snow and the Arctic Oscillation with data and models

Recent research suggests Eurasian snow-covered area (SCA) influences the Arctic Oscillation (AO) via the polar vortex. This could be important for Northern Hemisphere winter season forecasting. A fairly strong negative correlation between October SCA and the AO, based on both monthly and daily observational data, has been noted in the literature. While reproducing these previous links when using the same data, we find no further evidence of the link when using an independent satellite data source, or when using a climate model.

Modulation of equatorial Pacific westerly/easterly wind events by the Madden-Julian oscillation and convectively-coupled Rossby waves

Synoptic wind events in the equatorial Pacific strongly influence the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolution. This paper characterizes the spatio-temporal distribution of Easterly (EWEs) and Westerly Wind Events (WWEs) and quantifies their relationship with intraseasonal and interannual large-scale climate variability. We unambiguously demonstrate that the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Convectively-coupled Rossby Waves (CRW) modulate both WWEs and EWEs occurrence probability. 86 % of WWEs occur within convective MJO and/or CRW phases and 83 % of EWEs occur within the suppressed phase of MJO and/or CRW. 41 % of WWEs and 26 % of EWEs are in particular associated with the combined occurrence of a CRW/MJO, far more than what would be expected from a random distribution (3 %). Wind events embedded within MJO phases also have a stronger impact on the ocean, due to a tendency to have a larger amplitude, zonal extent and longer duration. These findings are robust irrespective of the wind events and MJO/CRW detection methods. While WWEs and EWEs behave rather symmetrically with respect to MJO/CRW activity, the impact of ENSO on wind events is asymmetrical. The WWEs occurrence probability indeed increases when the warm pool is displaced eastward during El Niño events, an increase that can partly be related to interannual modulation of the MJO/CRW activity in the western Pacific. On the other hand, the EWEs modulation by ENSO is less robust, and strongly depends on the wind event detection method. The consequences of these results for ENSO predictability are discussed.

The combined influences of westerly phase of the quasi biennial oscillation and 11-year solar maximum conditions on the Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter circulation

The combined influences of the westerly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO-W) and solar maximum (Smax) conditions on the Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter circulation are investigated using reanalysis data and Center for Climate System Research/National Institute for Environmental Studies chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations. The composite analysis for the reanalysis data indicates strengthened polar vortex in December followed by weakened polar vortex in February–March for QBO-W during Smax (QBO-W/Smax) conditions. This relationship need not be specific to QBO-W/Smax conditions but may just require strengthened vortex in December, which is more likely under QBO-W/Smax. Both the reanalysis data and CCM simulations suggest that dynamical processes of planetary wave propagation and meridional circulation related to QBO-W around polar vortex in December are similar in character to those related to Smax; furthermore, both processes may work in concert to maintain stronger vortex during QBO-W/Smax. In the reanalysis data, the strengthened polar vortex in December is associated with the development of north–south dipole tropospheric anomaly in the Atlantic sector similar to the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) during December–January. The structure of the north–south dipole anomaly has zonal wavenumber 1 (WN1) component, where the longitude of anomalous ridge overlaps with that of climatological ridge in the North Atlantic in January. This implies amplification of the WN1 wave and results in the enhancement of the upward WN1 propagation from troposphere into stratosphere in January, leading to the weakened polar vortex in February–March. Although WN2 waves do not play a direct role in forcing the stratospheric vortex evolution, their tropospheric response to QBO-W/Smax conditions appears to be related to the maintenance of the NAO-like anomaly in the high-latitude troposphere in January. These results may provide a possible explanation for the mechanisms underlying the seasonal evolution of wintertime polar vortex anomalies during QBO-W/Smax conditions and the role of troposphere in this evolution.

Understanding advances in the simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in a numerical weather prediction model.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the Trop- ics. It can be characterised as a planetary-scale coupling between the atmospheric circulation and organised deep convection that propagates east through the equatorial Indo-Pacific region. The MJO interacts with weather and climate systems on a near-global scale and is a crucial source of predictability for weather forecasts on medium to seasonal timescales. Despite its global signifi- cance, accurately representing the MJO in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models remains a challenge. This thesis focuses on the representation of the MJO in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), a state-of-the-art NWP model. Recent modifications to the model physics in Cycle 32r3 (Cy32r3) of the IFS led to ad- vances in the simulation of the MJO; for the first time the observed amplitude of the MJO was maintained throughout the integration period. A set of hindcast experiments, which differ only in their formulation of convection, have been performed between May 2008 and April 2009 to asses the sensitivity of MJO simulation in the IFS to the Cy32r3 convective parameterization. Unique to this thesis is the attribution of the advances in MJO simulation in Cy32r3 to the mod- ified convective parameterization, specifically, the relative-humidity-dependent formulation for or- ganised deep entrainment. Increasing the sensitivity of the deep convection scheme to environmen- tal moisture is shown to modify the relationship between precipitation and moisture in the model. Through dry-air entrainment, convective plumes ascending in low-humidity environments terminate lower in the atmosphere. As a result, there is an increase in the occurrence of cumulus congestus, which acts to moisten the mid-troposphere. Due to the modified precipitation-moisture relationship more moisture is able to build up which effectively preconditions the tropical atmosphere for the transition to deep convection. Results from this thesis suggest that a tropospheric moisture control on convection is key to simulating the interaction between the physics and large-scale circulation associated with the MJO.

Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on transatlantic flight routes and clear-air turbulence

The variation of wind-optimal transatlantic flight routes and their turbulence potential is investigated to understand how upper-level winds and large-scale flow patterns can affect the efficiency and safety of long-haul flights. In this study, the wind-optimal routes (WORs) that minimize the total flight time by considering wind variations are modeled for flights between John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) in New York, New York, and Heathrow Airport (LHR) in London, United Kingdom, during two distinct winter periods of abnormally high and low phases of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection patterns. Eastbound WORs approximate the JFK–LHR great circle (GC) route following northerly shifted jets in the +NAO period. Those WORs deviate southward following southerly shifted jets during the −NAO period, because eastbound WORs fly closely to the prevailing westerly jets to maximize tailwinds. Westbound WORs, however, spread meridionally to avoid the jets near the GC in the +NAO period to minimize headwinds. In the −NAO period, westbound WORs are north of the GC because of the southerly shifted jets. Consequently, eastbound WORs are faster but have higher probabilities of encountering clear-air turbulence than westbound ones, because eastbound WORs are close to the jet streams, especially near the cyclonic shear side of the jets in the northern (southern) part of the GC in the +NAO (−NAO) period. This study suggests how predicted teleconnection weather patterns can be used for long-haul strategic flight planning, ultimately contributing to minimizing aviation’s impact on the environment

Stochastic simulations of the Madden-Julian oscillation activity

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability. This study investigated the following questions. Do inter-annual-to-decadal variations in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) lead to substantial changes in MJO activity? Was there a change in the MJO in the 1970s? Can this change be associated to SST anomalies? What was the level of MJO activity in the pre-reanalysis era? These questions were investigated with a stochastic model of the MJO. Reanalysis data (1948-2008) were used to develop a nine-state first order Markov model capable to simulate the non-stationarity of the MJO. The model is driven by observed SST anomalies and a large ensemble of simulations was performed to infer the activity of the MJO in the instrumental period (1880-2008). The model is capable to reproduce the activity of the MJO during the reanalysis period. The simulations indicate that the MJO exhibited a regime of near normal activity in 1948-1972 (3.4 events year(-1)) and two regimes of high activity in 1973-1989 (3.9 events) and 1990-2008 (4.6 events). Stochastic simulations indicate decadal shifts with near normal levels in 1880-1895 (3.4 events), low activity in 1896 1917 (2.6 events) and a return to near normal levels during 1918-1947 (3.3 events). The results also point out to significant decadal changes in probabilities of very active years (5 or more MJO events): 0.214 (1880-1895), 0.076 (1896-1917), 0.197 (1918-1947) and 0.193 (1948-1972). After a change in behavior in the 1970s, this probability has increased to 0.329 (1973-1989) and 0.510 (1990-2008). The observational and stochastic simulations presented here call attention to the need to further understand the variability of the MJO on a wide range of time scales.

Oscillation for a second-order neutral differential equation with impulses

We consider a certain type of second-order neutral delay differential systems and we establish two results concerning the oscillation of solutions after the system undergoes controlled abrupt perturbations (called impulses). As a matter of fact, some particular non-impulsive cases of the system are oscillatory already. Thus, we are interested in finding adequate impulse controls under which our system remains oscillatory. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mean-field model for Josephson oscillation in a Bose-Einstein condensate on an one-dimensional optical trap

Using the axially-symmetric time-dependent Gross-Pitaevskii equation we study the phase coherence in a repulsive Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC) trapped by a harmonic and an one-dimensional optical lattice potential to describe the experiment by Cataliotti et al. on atomic Josephson oscillation [Science 293, 843 (2001)]. The phase coherence is maintained after the BEC is set into oscillation by a small displacement of the magnetic trap along the optical lattice. The phase coherence in the presence of oscillating neutral current across an array of Josephson junctions manifests in an interference pattern formed upon free expansion of the BEC. The numerical response of the system to a large displacement of the magnetic trap is a classical transition from a coherent superfluid to an insulator regime and a subsequent destruction of the interference pattern in agreement With the more recent experiment by Cataliotti et al. [New J. Phys. 5, 71 (2003)].

Resonance in Bose-Einstein condensate oscillation from a periodic variation in scattering length

Using the explicit numerical solution of the axially symmetric Gross-Pitaevskii equation, we study the oscillation of the Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC) induced by a periodic variation in the atomic scattering length a. When the frequency of oscillation of a is an even multiple of the radial or axial trap frequency, respectively, the radial or axial oscillation of the condensate exhibits resonance with a novel feature. In this nonlinear problem without damping, at resonance in the steady state the amplitude of oscillation passes through a maximum and minimum. Such a growth and decay cycle of the amplitude may keep on repeating. Similar behaviour is also observed in a rotating BEC.

Josephson oscillation and induced collapse in an attractive Bose-Einstein condensate

Using the axially symmetric time-dependent Gross-Pitaevskii equation we study the Josephson oscillation of an attractive Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC) in a one-dimensional periodic optical-lattice potential. We find that the Josephson frequency is virtually independent of the number of atoms in the BEC and of the interatomic interaction (attractive or repulsive). We study the dependence of the Josephson frequency on the laser wave length and the strength of the optical-lattice potential. For a fixed laser wave length (795 nm), the Josephson frequency decreases with increasing strength as found in the experiment of Cataliotti [Science 293, 843 (2001)]. For a fixed strength, the Josephson frequency remains essentially unchanged for a reasonable variation of laser wave length around 800 nm. However, the Josephson oscillation is disrupted with the increase of laser wave length beyond 2000 nm leading to a collapse of a sufficiently attractive BEC. These features of a Josephson oscillation can be tested experimentally with present setups.

Parameter degeneracies in neutrino oscillation measurement of leptonic CP and T violation

The measurement of the mixing angle theta(13), sign of Deltam(13)(2), and the CP or T violating phase delta is fraught with ambiguities in neutrino oscillation. In this paper we give an analytic treatment of the paramater degeneracies associated with measuring the nu(mu)-->nu(e) probability and its CP and/or T conjugates. For CP violation, we give explicit solutions to allow us to obtain the regions where there exist twofold and fourfold degeneracies. We calculate the fractional differences, (Deltatheta/(θ) over bar), between the allowed solutions which may be used to compare with the expected sensitivities of the experiments. For T violation we show that there is always a complete degeneracy between solutions with positive and negative Deltam(13)(2) which arises due to a symmetry and cannot be removed by observing one neutrino oscillation probability and its T conjugate. Thus there is always a fourfold parameter degeneracy apart from exceptional points. Explicit solutions are also given and the fractional differences are computed. The biprobability CP/T trajectory diagrams are extensively used to illuminate the nature of the degeneracies.

Complementarity of eastern and western hemisphere long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiments

We present a general formalism for extracting information on the fundamental parameters associated with neutrino masses and mixings from two or more long baseline neutrino oscillation experiments. This formalism is then applied to the current most likely experiments using neutrino beams from the Japan Hadron Facility (JHF) and Fermilab's NuMI beamline. Different combinations of muon neutrino or muon anti-neutrino running are considered. The type of neutrino mass hierarchy is extracted using the effects of matter on neutrino propogation. Contrary to naive expectation, we find that both beams using neutrinos is more suitable for determining the hierarchy provided that the neutrino energy divided by baseline (E/L) for NuMI is smaller than or equal to that of JHF, whereas to determine the small mixing angle, theta(13), and the CP or T violating phase delta, one neutrino and the other anti-neutrino are most suitable. We make extensive use of bi-probability diagrams for both understanding and extracting the physics involved in such comparisons.

Method for determination of vertical bar U(e)3 vertical bar in neutrino oscillation appearance experiments

We point out that determination of the MNS matrix element \U-e3\ = s(13) in long-baseline nu(mu) --> nu(e) neutrino oscillation experiments suffers from large intrinsic uncertainty due to the unknown CP violating phase delta and sign of Deltam(13)(2). We propose a new strategy for accurate determination of theta(13); tune the beam energy at the oscillation maximum and do the measurement both in neutrino and antineutrino channels. We show that it automatically resolves the problem of parameter ambiguities which involves delta, theta(13), and the sign of Deltam(13)(2). (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Determining the oscillation parameters by solar neutrinos and KamLAND

The neutrino oscillation experiment KamLAND has provided us with the first evidence for e disappearance, coming from nuclear reactors. We have combined their data with all solar neutrino data, assuming two flavor neutrino mixing, and obtained allowed parameter regions which are compatible with the so-called large mixing angle MSW solution to the solar neutrino problem. The allowed regions in the plane of mixing angle and mass squared difference are now split into two islands at 99% C.L. We have speculated how these two islands can be distinguished in the near future. We have shown that a 50% reduction of the error on SNO neutral-current measurement can be important in establishing in each of these islands the true values of these parameters lie, We also have simulated KamLAND positron energy spectrum after I year of data taking, assuming the current best fitted values of the oscillation parameters, combined it the with current solar neutrino data and showed how these two split islands can be modified. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V. B.V.