Pre-play communication and credibility: A test of Aumann's conjecture

The effectiveness of pre-play communication in achieving efficientoutcomes has long been a subject of controversy. In some environments,cheap talk may help to achieve coordination. However, Aumannconjectures that, in a variant of the Stag Hunt game, a signal forefficient play is not self-enforcing and concludes that an "agreementto play [the efficient outcome] conveys no information about what theplayers will do." Harsanyi and Selten (1988) cite this example as anillustration of risk-dominance vs. payoff-dominance. Farrell and Rabin(1996) agree with the logic, but suspect that cheap talk willnonetheless achieve efficiency. The conjecture is tested with one-waycommunication. When the sender first chooses a signal and then anaction, there is impressive coordination: a 94% probability for thepotentially efficient (but risky) play, given a signal for efficientplay. Without communication, efforts to achieve efficiency wereunsuccessful, as the proportion of B moves is only 35%. I also test ahypothesis that the order of the action and the signal affects theresults, finding that the decision order is indeed important. WhileAumann s conjecture is behaviorally disconfirmed when the signal isdetermined initially, the signal s credibility seems to be much moresuspect when the sender is known to have first chosen an action, andthe results are not statistically distinguishable from those whenthere is no signal. Some applications and issues in communication andcoordination are discussed.

Dynamic perceptual mapping

Perceptual maps have been used for decades by market researchers to illuminatethem about the similarity between brands in terms of a set of attributes, to position consumersrelative to brands in terms of their preferences, or to study how demographic and psychometricvariables relate to consumer choice. Invariably these maps are two-dimensional and static. Aswe enter the era of electronic publishing, the possibilities for dynamic graphics are opening up.We demonstrate the usefulness of introducing motion into perceptual maps through fourexamples. The first example shows how a perceptual map can be viewed in three dimensions,and the second one moves between two analyses of the data that were collected according todifferent protocols. In a third example we move from the best view of the data at the individuallevel to one which focuses on between-group differences in aggregated data. A final exampleconsiders the case when several demographic variables or market segments are available foreach respondent, showing an animation with increasingly detailed demographic comparisons.These examples of dynamic maps use several data sets from marketing and social scienceresearch.

Adaptive approach heuristics for the generalized assignment problem

The Generalized Assignment Problem consists in assigning a setof tasks to a set of agents with minimum cost. Each agent hasa limited amount of a single resource and each task must beassigned to one and only one agent, requiring a certain amountof the resource of the agent. We present new metaheuristics forthe generalized assignment problem based on hybrid approaches.One metaheuristic is a MAX-MIN Ant System (MMAS), an improvedversion of the Ant System, which was recently proposed byStutzle and Hoos to combinatorial optimization problems, and itcan be seen has an adaptive sampling algorithm that takes inconsideration the experience gathered in earlier iterations ofthe algorithm. Moreover, the latter heuristic is combined withlocal search and tabu search heuristics to improve the search.A greedy randomized adaptive search heuristic (GRASP) is alsoproposed. Several neighborhoods are studied, including one basedon ejection chains that produces good moves withoutincreasing the computational effort. We present computationalresults of the comparative performance, followed by concludingremarks and ideas on future research in generalized assignmentrelated problems.

Endogenous information structures

Many models in the economics literature deal with strategic situations withprivately informed agents. In those models the information structure isassumed to be exogenous and common knowledge. We consider whether suchmodels, and the results they produce, are robust with respect theendogenization of the information structure. The results depend on whetherinformation acquisition is secret or private, and on whether the strategicsituation involves simultaneous or sequential moves. In particular we findthat only when information is secretly acquired and moves are simultaneous,the results are fully robust. When information is acquired secretly butmoves are sequential additional equilibria may appear. Instead, privateinformation acquisition may make the equilibrium set smaller.

Krypton laser photocoagulation induces retinal vascular remodeling rather than choroidal neovascularization.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the retina and choroid response following krypton laser photocoagulation. Ninety-two C57BL6/Sev129 and 32 C57BL/6J, 5-6-week-old mice received one single krypton (630 nm) laser lesion: 50 microm, 0.05 s, 400 mW. On the following day, every day thereafter for 1 week and every 2-3 days for the following 3 weeks, serial sections throughout the lesion were systematically collected and studied. Immunohistology using specific markers or antibodies for glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) (astrocytes, glia and Muller's cells), von Willebrand (vW) (vascular endothelial cells), TUNEL (cells undergoing caspase dependent apoptosis), PCNA (proliferating cell nuclear antigen) p36, CD4 and F4/80 (infiltrating inflammatory and T cells), DAPI (cell nuclei) and routine histology were carried out. Laser confocal microscopy was also performed on flat mounts. Temporal and spatial observations of the created photocoagulation lesions demonstrate that, after a few hours, activated glial cells within the retinal path of the laser beam express GFAP. After 48 h, GFAP-positive staining was also detected within the choroid lesion center. "Movement" of this GFAP-positive expression towards the lasered choroid was preceded by a well-demarcated and localized apoptosis of the retina outer nuclear layer cells within the laser beam path. Later, death of retinal outer nuclear cells and layer thinning at this site was followed by evagination of the inner nuclear retinal layer. Funneling of the entire inner nuclear and the thinned outer nuclear layers into the choroid lesion center was accompanied by "dragging" of the retinal capillaries. Thus, from days 10 to 14 after krypton laser photocoagulation onward, well-formed blood capillaries (of retinal origin) were observed within the lesion. Only a few of the vW-positive capillary endothelial cells stained also for PCNA p36. In the choroid, dilatation of the vascular bed occurred at the vicinity of the photocoagulation site and around it. Confocal microscopy demonstrates that the vessels throughout the path lesion are located within the neuroretina while in the choroid (after separation of the neural retina) only GFAP-positive but no lectin-positive cells can be seen. The involvement of infiltrating inflammatory cells in these remodeling and healing processes remained minimal throughout the study period. During the 4 weeks following krypton laser photocoagulation in the mouse eye, processes of wound healing and remodeling appear to be driven by cells (and vessels) originating from the retina.

Pre-Mesozoic Alpine basements - Their place in the European Paleozoic framework

Prior to their Alpine overprinting, most of the pre-Mesozoic basement areas in Alpine orogenic structures shared a complex evolution, starting with Neoproterozoic sediments that are thought to have received detrital input from both West and East Gondwanan cratonic sources. A subsequent Neoproterozoic-Cambrian active margin setting at the Gondwana margin was followed by a Cambrian-Ordovician rifting period, including an Ordovician cordillera-like active margin setting. During the Late Ordovician and Silurian periods, the future Alpine domains recorded crustal extension along the Gondwana margin, announcing the future opening of the Paleotethys oceanic domain. Most areas then underwent Variscan orogenic events, including continental subduction and collisions with Avalonian-type basement areas along Laurussia and the juxtaposition and the duplication of terrane assemblages during strike slip, accompanied by contemporaneous crustal shortening and the subduction of Paleotethys under Laurussia. Thereafter, the final Pangea assemblage underwent Triassic and Jurassic extension, followed by Tertiary shortening, and leading to the buildup of the Alpine mountain chain. Recent plate-tectonic reconstructions place the Alpine domains in their supposed initial Cambrian-Ordovician positions in the eastern part of the Gondwana margin, where a stronger interference with the Chinese blocks is proposed, at least from the Ordovician onward. For the Visean time of the Variscan continental collision, the distinction of the former tectonic lower-plate situation is traceable but becomes blurred through the subsequent oblique subduction of Paleotethys under Laurussia accompanied by large-scale strike slip. Since the Pennsylvanian, this global collisional scenario has been replaced by subsequent and ongoing shortening and strike slip under rising geothermal conditions, and all of this occurred before all these puzzle elements underwent the complex Alpine reorganization.

Reconstructing mid-to-recent Holocene paleoenvironments in the vicinity of ancient Amarynthos (Euboea, Greece).

This article examines the shoreline evolution and human occupation in the vicinity of the important archeological site of Amarynthos (Euboea Island, Greece) over the last six millennia. Archeological evidence indicates a continuous occupation of the site from the Bronze Age to the Roman period and the site is well-known, thanks to the existence of a sanctuary dedicated to the goddess Artemis. Based on the study of four boreholes, a paleogeographic reconstruction of the coastal landscape is proposed. Facies were determined based on mollusc identification, and sedimentology based on grain-size measurements (hand sieving for the fraction above 2 mm and LASER technique for particles below 2 mm) and loss-on-ignition. In addition, a series of 12 AMS radiocarbon dates define a reliable chronostratigraphy. Results suggest the presence of a fully marine environment from the early Holocene to ca. 2600-2400 cal. BC, which developed into a brackish environment from ca. 2600-2400 cal. BC to ca. 750 cal. BC due to the deltaic progradation of the nearby stream (Sarandapotamos River). From ca. 750 cal. BC onward, coastal swamps prevailed in the study area. Human-environmental interaction is discussed and particular attention is paid to the paleolandscape configuration of Amarynthos.

Potential impact of climate change on vegetation in the European Alps: a review

Based on conclusions drawn from general climatic impact assessment in mountain regions, the review synthesizes results relevant to the European Alps published mainly from 1994 onward in the fields of population genetics, ecophysiology, phenology, phytogeography, modeling, paleoecology and vegetation dynamics. Other important factors of global change interacting synergistically with climatic factors are also mentioned, such as atmospheric CO2 concentration, eutrophication, ozone or changes in land-use. Topics addressed are general species distribution and populations (persistence, acclimation, genetic variability, dispersal, fragmentation, plant/animal interaction, species richness, conservation), potential response of vegetation (ecotonal shift - area, physiography - changes in the composition, structural changes), phenology, growth and productivity, and landscape. In conclusion, the European Alps appear to have a natural inertia and thus to tolerate an increase of 1-2 K of mean air temperature as far as plant species and ecosystems are concerned in general. However, the impact of land-use is very likely to negate this buffer in many areas. For a change of the order of 3 K or more, profound changes may be expected.

Development of the femur - Implications for age and sex determination.

Growth of four variables of the femur (diapyseal length, diaphyseal length plus distal epiphysis, maximum length and vertical diameter of the head) was analyzed by polynomial regression for the purpose of evaluating its significance and capacity for age and sex determination throughout the entire life continuum. Materials included in analysis consisted of 346 specimens ranging from birth to 97 years of age from five documented osteological collections of Western European descent. Linear growth was displayed by each of the four variables. Significant sexual dimorphism was identified in two of the femoral measurements, including maximum length and vertical diameter of the head, from age 15 onward. These results indicate that the two variables may be of use in the determination of sex in sex determination from that age onward. Strong correlation coefficients were identified between femoral size and age for each of the four metric variables. These results indicate that any of the femoral measurements is likely to serve as a useful source to estimate sub-adult age in both archaeological and forensic samples.

The impact of transmission clusters on primary drug resistance in newly diagnosed HIV-1 infection.

OBJECTIVES: To monitor HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance (TDR) in a well defined urban area with large access to antiretroviral therapy and to assess the potential source of infection of newly diagnosed HIV individuals. METHODS: All individuals resident in Geneva, Switzerland, with a newly diagnosed HIV infection between 2000 and 2008 were screened for HIV resistance. An infection was considered as recent when the positive test followed a negative screening test within less than 1 year. Phylogenetic analyses were performed by using the maximum likelihood method on pol sequences including 1058 individuals with chronic infection living in Geneva. RESULTS: Of 637 individuals with newly diagnosed HIV infection, 20% had a recent infection. Mutations associated with resistance to at least one drug class were detected in 8.5% [nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), 6.3%; non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), 3.5%; protease inhibitors, 1.9%]. TDR (P-trend = 0.015) and, in particular, NNRTI resistance (P = 0.002) increased from 2000 to 2008. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that 34.9% of newly diagnosed individuals, and 52.7% of those with recent infection were linked to transmission clusters. Clusters were more frequent in individuals with TDR than in those with sensitive strains (59.3 vs. 32.6%, respectively; P < 0.0001). Moreover, 84% of newly diagnosed individuals with TDR were part of clusters composed of only newly diagnosed individuals. CONCLUSION: Reconstruction of the HIV transmission networks using phylogenetic analysis shows that newly diagnosed HIV infections are a significant source of onward transmission, particularly of resistant strains, thus suggesting an important self-fueling mechanism for TDR.

Are commuting and residential mobility decisions simultaneous? : the case of Catalonia (Spain)

In this paper we study the commuting and moving decisions of workers in Catalonia (Spain) and its evolution in the 1986-1996 period. Using a microdata sample from the 1991 Spanish Population Census, we estimate a simultaneous, discrete choice model of commuting and moves, thus indirectly addressing the home and job location decisions. The econometrical framework is a simultaneous, binary probit model with a commute equation and a move equation

Are commuting and residential mobility decisions simultaneous? : the case of Catalonia (Spain)

In this paper we study the commuting and moving decisions of workers in Catalonia (Spain) and its evolution in the 1986-1996 period. Using a microdata sample from the 1991 Spanish Population Census, we estimate a simultaneous, discrete choice model of commuting and moves, thus indirectly addressing the home and job location decisions. The econometrical framework is a simultaneous, binary probit model with a commute equation and a move equation

Dispersionless transport in a washboard potential

We study and characterize a new dynamical regime of underdamped particles in a tilted washboard potential. We find that for small friction in a finite range of forces the particles move essentially nondispersively, that is, coherently, over long intervals of time. The associated distribution of the particle positions moves at an essentially constant velocity and is far from Gaussian-like. This new regime is complementary to, and entirely different from, well-known nonlinear response and large dispersion regimes observed for other values of the external force.

Interaction of a discrete breather with a lattice junction

We study the scattering of a moving discrete breather (DB) on a junction in a Fermi-Pasta-Ulam chain consisting of two segments with different masses of the particles. We consider four distinct cases: (i) a light-heavy (abrupt) junction in which the DB impinges on the junction from the segment with lighter mass, (ii) a heavy-light junction, (iii) an up mass ramp in which the mass in the heavier segment increases continuously as one moves away from the junction point, and (iv) a down mass ramp. Depending on the mass difference and DB characteristics (frequency and velocity), the DB can either reflect from, or transmit through, or get trapped at the junction or on the ramp. For the heavy-light junction, the DB can even split at the junction into a reflected and a transmitted DB. The latter is found to subsequently split into two or more DBs. For the down mass ramp the DB gets accelerated in several stages, with accompanying radiation (phonons). These results are rationalized by calculating the Peierls-Nabarro barrier for the various cases. We also point out implications of our results in realistic situations such as electron-phonon coupled chains.

Magnetic hardening mechanisms in Nd-Fe-B nanocrystalline material

Microstructural and magnetic measurements of the evolution by heat treatment of initially amorphous Nd16Fe76B8 alloys prepared by melt spinning are presented. Evidence of magnetic hardening above a threshold temperature induced by magnetic isolation of the Nd2Fe14B grains is provided. A thermodynamic and kinetic explanation of local melting of the intergranular nanostructured Nd¿rich eutectic phase at temperatures below 900 K based on capillary effects is presented. A subsequent Ostwald ripening process moves Nd to wet intimately the hard magnetic grains, becoming, on cooling, a real paramagnetic isolating thin film (~2.5 nm). By using a simple analogy, it is shown that the switching magnetization field in a single¿domain crystal can be drastically affected through the exchange coupling to neighboring grains with different orientation of the easy axis. This effect should be important enough to reinforce the coercive field of polycrystalline hard magnetic materials and explains the observed enhancement from 0.9 to 1.9 T.