NEIGHBORHOOD PERCEPTION OF SAFETY AND THE MOBILITY GAP BETWEEN MEN AND WOMEN IN OLD AGE

Background and Objectives: Mobility limitations are a prevalent issue in older adult populations, and an important determinant of disability and mortality. Neighborhood conditions are key determinants of mobility and perception of safety may be one such determinant. Women have more mobility limitations than men, a phenomenon known as the gender mobility gap. The objective of this work was to validate a measure of perception of safety, examine the relationship between neighborhood perception of safety and mobility limitations in seniors, and explore if these effects vary by gender. Methods: This study was cross-sectional, using questionnaire data collected from community-dwelling older adults from four sites in Canada, Colombia, and Brazil. The exposure variable was the neighborhood aggregated Perception of Safety (PoS) scale, derived from the Physical and Social Disorder (PSD) scale by Sampson and Raudenbush. Its construct validity was verified using factor analyses and correlation with similar measures. The Mobility Assessment Tool – short form (MAT-sf), a video-based measure validated cross-culturally in the studied populations, was used to assess mobility limitations. Based on theoretical models, covariates were included in the analysis, both at the neighborhood level (SES, social capital, and built environment) and the individual level (age, gender, education, income, chronic illnesses, depression, cognitive function, BMI, and social participation). Multilevel modeling was used in order to account for neighborhood clustering. Gender specific analyses were carried out. SAS and M-plus were used in this study. Results: PoS was validated across all sites. It loaded in a single factor, after excluding two items, with a Cronbach α value of approximately 0.86. Mobility limitations were present in 22.08% of the sample, 16.32% among men and 27.41% among women. Neighborhood perception of safety was significantly associated with mobility limitations when controlling for all covariates, with an OR of 0.84 (CI 95%: 0.73-0.96), indicating lower odds of having mobility limitations as neighborhood perception of safety improves. Gender did not affect this relationship despite women being more likely to have mobility limitations and live in neighborhoods with poor perception of safety. Conclusion: Neighborhood perception of safety affected the prevalence of mobility limitations in older adults in the studied population.

Multivariate statistical modeling of an anode backing furnace - Modélisation statistique multivariée du four à cuisson des anodes utilisées dans la fabrication d'aluminium primaire

La stratégie actuelle de contrôle de la qualité de l’anode est inadéquate pour détecter les anodes défectueuses avant qu’elles ne soient installées dans les cuves d’électrolyse. Des travaux antérieurs ont porté sur la modélisation du procédé de fabrication des anodes afin de prédire leurs propriétés directement après la cuisson en utilisant des méthodes statistiques multivariées. La stratégie de carottage des anodes utilisée à l’usine partenaire fait en sorte que ce modèle ne peut être utilisé que pour prédire les propriétés des anodes cuites aux positions les plus chaudes et les plus froides du four à cuire. Le travail actuel propose une stratégie pour considérer l’histoire thermique des anodes cuites à n’importe quelle position et permettre de prédire leurs propriétés. Il est montré qu’en combinant des variables binaires pour définir l’alvéole et la position de cuisson avec les données routinières mesurées sur le four à cuire, les profils de température des anodes cuites à différentes positions peuvent être prédits. Également, ces données ont été incluses dans le modèle pour la prédiction des propriétés des anodes. Les résultats de prédiction ont été validés en effectuant du carottage supplémentaire et les performances du modèle sont concluantes pour la densité apparente et réelle, la force de compression, la réactivité à l’air et le Lc et ce peu importe la position de cuisson.

Stout Whiting Fishery Summary : Commercial Quota Setting for 2017

This fishery assessment report describes the commercial stout whiting fishery operation along Australia’s east coast between Sandy Cape and the Queensland-New South Wales border. The fishery is identified by a T4 symbol. This study follows methods applied in (O'Neill & Leigh, 2016a) and extends the results of that study by using the latest data available up to end of March 2016. The fishery statistics reported herein are for fishing years 1991 to 2016. This study analysed stout whiting catch rates from both Queensland and New South Wales (NSW) for all vessels, areas and fishing gears. The 2016 catch rate index from Queensland and NSW waters was 0.86. This means that the 2016 catch rate index was 86% of the mean standardised catch rate. Results showed that there was a stable trend in catch rates from 2012 to 2016, as in the previous study (O'Neill & Leigh, 2016a), with the 2015 and 2014 catch rates 85% of the mean catch rate. The fish-length frequency and age-length-otolith data were translated using two models which showed: • Where patterns of fish age-abundance were estimated from the fish-length frequency and age-length data, there were slightly decreased estimated measures of fish survival at 38% for 2014, compared to fish survival estimates in 2013 at 40%. The 2014 and 2015 estimated age structure was dominated by 1+ and 2+ old fished, with a slightly higher frequency of age 2 - 3 fish for 2015. • Where only the age-length data were used, estimates showed that from 2011 to 2014 the survival index increased. The estimated survival index increased from 35% in 2013 to 64% in 2014, indicating stronger survival of fish as they recruited and aged. Together the stout whiting catch rate and survival indicators showed the recent fishery harvests were sustainable. Since 1997, T4 management (Stout Whiting Fishery) is centred on annual assessments of total allowable commercial catch (TACC). The TACC is assessed before the start of each fishing year using statistical assessment methodologies, namely evaluation of trends in fish catch rates and catch-at-age frequencies measured against management reference points. The TACC has been under-caught in many years. For setting the 2017 T4 stout whiting TACC, the calculations covered a range of settings to account for the variance in the data and provide options for quota change. The overall (averaged) results suggested: • The procedure where the quota was adjusted based on previous TACC setting in year 2016 gave a recommended TACC for 2017 of between 1100 and 1130 t. • The procedure that focussed directly on optimising the average harvest to match target reference points gave a recommended TACC for 2017 of between 860 and 890 t. Use of these estimates to set TACC will depend on management and industry aims for the fishery.

Statistical modeling of protein lysate array data

The protein lysate array is an emerging technology for quantifying the protein concentration ratios in multiple biological samples. It is gaining popularity, and has the potential to answer questions about post-translational modifications and protein pathway relationships. Statistical inference for a parametric quantification procedure has been inadequately addressed in the literature, mainly due to two challenges: the increasing dimension of the parameter space and the need to account for dependence in the data. Each chapter of this thesis addresses one of these issues. In Chapter 1, an introduction to the protein lysate array quantification is presented, followed by the motivations and goals for this thesis work. In Chapter 2, we develop a multi-step procedure for the Sigmoidal models, ensuring consistent estimation of the concentration level with full asymptotic efficiency. The results obtained in this chapter justify inferential procedures based on large-sample approximations. Simulation studies and real data analysis are used to illustrate the performance of the proposed method in finite-samples. The multi-step procedure is simpler in both theory and computation than the single-step least squares method that has been used in current practice. In Chapter 3, we introduce a new model to account for the dependence structure of the errors by a nonlinear mixed effects model. We consider a method to approximate the maximum likelihood estimator of all the parameters. Using the simulation studies on various error structures, we show that for data with non-i.i.d. errors the proposed method leads to more accurate estimates and better confidence intervals than the existing single-step least squares method.

STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ADVANCED ECONOMETRIC MODELS WITH APPLICATIONS TO VEHICLE HOLDING AND SPEED QUANTILES DISTRIBUTION

This dissertation proposes statistical methods to formulate, estimate and apply complex transportation models. Two main problems are part of the analyses conducted and presented in this dissertation. The first method solves an econometric problem and is concerned with the joint estimation of models that contain both discrete and continuous decision variables. The use of ordered models along with a regression is proposed and their effectiveness is evaluated with respect to unordered models. Procedure to calculate and optimize the log-likelihood functions of both discrete-continuous approaches are derived, and difficulties associated with the estimation of unordered models explained. Numerical approximation methods based on the Genz algortithm are implemented in order to solve the multidimensional integral associated with the unordered modeling structure. The problems deriving from the lack of smoothness of the probit model around the maximum of the log-likelihood function, which makes the optimization and the calculation of standard deviations very difficult, are carefully analyzed. A methodology to perform out-of-sample validation in the context of a joint model is proposed. Comprehensive numerical experiments have been conducted on both simulated and real data. In particular, the discrete-continuous models are estimated and applied to vehicle ownership and use models on data extracted from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey. The second part of this work offers a comprehensive statistical analysis of free-flow speed distribution; the method is applied to data collected on a sample of roads in Italy. A linear mixed model that includes speed quantiles in its predictors is estimated. Results show that there is no road effect in the analysis of free-flow speeds, which is particularly important for model transferability. A very general framework to predict random effects with few observations and incomplete access to model covariates is formulated and applied to predict the distribution of free-flow speed quantiles. The speed distribution of most road sections is successfully predicted; jack-knife estimates are calculated and used to explain why some sections are poorly predicted. Eventually, this work contributes to the literature in transportation modeling by proposing econometric model formulations for discrete-continuous variables, more efficient methods for the calculation of multivariate normal probabilities, and random effects models for free-flow speed estimation that takes into account the survey design. All methods are rigorously validated on both real and simulated data.

Food consumption and risk of malnutrition in community-dwelling very old Spanish adults (≥ 80 years)

Introduction: There are few studies assessing overall diet and food patterns of the oldest population. Objectives: To examine food groups consumption (grams and servings) and their compliance with the dietary guidelines in community-dwelling very old Spanish adults. The relationship with the risk of malnutrition was also studied. Methods: Within the cross-sectional health study of elderly people of Villanueva de la Cañada (Madrid, Spain), in 98 non-institutionalized elders aged ≥ 80 years (66% women) food consumption was calculated from a 24-hour dietary recall and nutritional risk was assessed by Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA). Statistical significance was evaluated at 95% confidence level (p < 0.05). Results: Men consumed significantly higher amounts of snacks/pickles and alcoholic beverages. The consumption of cereals/grain products (2 servings/day), vegetables (1.5 servings/day) and meat, fish, eggs (1.4 servings/day), was below desirable levels. As nutritional status got worse, fruit consumption was significantly smaller (p = 0.039). Relatively weak but highly significant correlations were found between MNA and oils/fats, fruits and alcoholic beverages. After adjustment for energy intake, oils and fats and fruits associations disappeared whereas a negative association between milk/dairy products and MNA was found. Conclusions: Dietary patterns of the elderly population of Villanueva are departing from the traditional Mediterranean diet and though adequate consumption of fruits, milk/dairy products, oils/fats and sugar/confectionery has been achieved, cereals/grain products, vegetables and the meat,fish,eggs group consumption was below the desirable levels. Deterioration of the nutritional status coincided with a reduction in the consumption of all food groups except for ready meals and milk/dairy products whose consumption increased. Further research on the influence of fruit, milk/dairy products, wine and olive oil consumption on nutritional status is required.

Statistical properties of radiation of multiwavelength random DFB fiber laser

In the presented paper, the temporal and statistical properties of a Lyot filter based multiwavelength random DFB fiber laser with a wide flat spectrum, consisting of individual lines, were investigated. It was shown that separate spectral lines forming the laser spectrum have mostly Gaussian statistics and so represent stochastic radiation, but at the same time the entire radiation is not fully stochastic. A simple model, taking into account phenomenological correlations of the lines' initial phases was established. Radiation structure in the experiment and simulation proved to be different, demanding interactions between different lines to be described via a NLSE-based model.

Balance ability in 7- and 10-year-old children:associations with prenatal lead and cadmium exposure and with blood lead levels in childhood in a prospective birth cohort study

OBJECTIVES: Most studies reporting evidence of adverse effects of lead and cadmium on the ability to balance have been conducted in high-exposure groups or have included adults. The effects of prenatal exposure have not been well studied, nor have the effects in children been directly studied. The aim of the study was to identify the associations of lead (in utero and in childhood) and cadmium (in utero) exposure with the ability to balance in children aged 7 and 10 years. DESIGN: Prospective birth cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Maternal blood lead (n=4285) and cadmium (n=4286) levels were measured by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry in women enrolled in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) during pregnancy. Child lead levels were measured in a subsample of 582 of ALSPAC children at age 30 months. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Children completed a heel-to-toe walking test at 7 years. At 10 years, the children underwent clinical tests of static and dynamic balance. Statistical analysis using SPSS V.19 included logistic regression modelling, comparing categories of ≥ 5 vs <5 µg/dL for lead, and ≥ 1 vs <1 µg/L for cadmium. RESULTS: Balance at age 7 years was not associated with elevated in utero lead or cadmium exposure (adjusted OR for balance dysfunction: Pb 1.01 (95% CI 0.95 to 1.01), n=1732; Cd 0.95 (0.77 to 1.20), n=1734), or with elevated child blood lead level at age 30 months (adjusted OR 0.98 (0.92 to 1.05), n=354). Similarly, neither measures of static nor dynamic balance at age 10 years were associated with in utero lead or cadmium exposure, or child lead level. CONCLUSIONS: These findings do not provide any evidence of an association of prenatal exposure to lead or cadmium, or lead levels in childhood, on balance ability in children. Confirmation in other cohorts is needed.

NEIGHBORHOOD PERCEPTION OF SAFETY AND THE MOBILITY GAP BETWEEN MEN AND WOMEN IN OLD AGE

Thesis (Master, Community Health & Epidemiology) -- Queen's University, 2016-10-02 21:02:07.735

Evaluation of water use, yield and water productivity of a high-density orchard (cv. Cobrançosa) subjected to different irrigation regimes – An account of four years

The impact of different irrigation scheduling regimes on the water use, yield and water productivity from a high-density olive grove cv. Cobrançosa in southern Portugal was assessed during the irrigation seasons of 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014. The experiments were conducted in a commercial olive orchard at the Herdade Álamo de Cima, near Évora (38o 29' 49.44'' N, 7o 45' 8.83'' W; alt. 75 m) in southern Alentejo, Portugal. The orchard was established with 10-year old Cobrançosa trees in grids of 8.0 x 4.2 m (300 trees ha-1) in the E-W direction, and experiments conducted on a shallow sandy loam Regosoil Haplic soil. From mid-May to the end of September the orchard was irrigated and three plots were subjected to one of two irrigation treatments: a control treatment A, irrigated to replace 100% ETc, a moderate deficit irrigation treatment B irrigated to 70% of ETc, and a more severe deficit irrigation treatment C that provided for approximately 50% of ETc. Daily tree transpiration rates were obtained by continuously monitoring of sap flow in representative trees per treatment. Among the irrigated treatments, water use efficiency (WUE, ratio of water used to irrigation- water applied) of treatment C was the highest, with a value of 0.89, being treatment B slightly lower, with a WUE of 0.76. Olive harvest for 2012 was an exceptional “on year”. Bearing yields showed contrasting differences within years where an “on year” was followed by an “off year”. In 2011 and 2012 treatment B yields were 41 and 50% higher than treatment C, respectively. In 2013 treatment B yield was 45% higher than yield of the fully irrigated treatment A, and treatment C showed practically the same yield than treatment A. In the “on year” of 2014 treatment B averaged 48% higher yield than treatment C. Treatment B farm irrigation water productivity (WPI-Farm, ratio of yield to water applied) was the highest among all treatments. Treatment A showed the lowest conversion efficiency of all treatments, indicating treatment B as the adequate deficit irrigation treatment for our Cobrançosa orchard

How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited

Species distribution and ecological niche models are increasingly used in biodiversity management and conservation. However, one thing that is important but rarely done is to follow up on the predictive performance of these models over time, to check if their predictions are fulfilled and maintain accuracy, or if they apply only to the set in which they were produced. In 2003, a distribution model of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Spain was published, based on the results of a country-wide otter survey published in 1998. This model was built with logistic regression of otter presence-absence in UTM 10 km2 cells on a diverse set of environmental, human and spatial variables, selected according to statistical criteria. Here we evaluate this model against the results of the most recent otter survey, carried out a decade later and after a significant expansion of the otter distribution area in this country. Despite the time elapsed and the evident changes in this species’ distribution, the model maintained a good predictive capacity, considering both discrimination and calibration measures. Otter distribution did not expand randomly or simply towards vicinity areas,m but specifically towards the areas predicted as most favourable by the model based on data from 10 years before. This corroborates the utility of predictive distribution models, at least in the medium term and when they are made with robust methods and relevant predictor variables.

Microbial Evaluation Of Traumatized Teeth Treated With Triple Antibiotic Paste Or Calcium Hydroxide With 2% Chlorhexidine Gel In Pulp Revascularization.

Revascularization outcome depends on microbial elimination because apical repair will not happen in the presence of infected tissues. This study evaluated the microbial composition of traumatized immature teeth and assessed their reduction during different stages of the revascularization procedures performed with 2 intracanal medicaments. Fifteen patients (7-17 years old) with immature teeth were submitted to the revascularization procedures; they were divided into 2 groups according to the intracanal medicament used: TAP group (n = 7), medicated with a triple antibiotic paste, and CHP group (n = 8), dressed with calcium hydroxide + 2% chlorhexidine gel. Samples were taken before any treatment (S1), after irrigation with 6% NaOCl (S2), after irrigation with 2% chlorhexidine (S3), after intracanal dressing (S4), and after 17% EDTA irrigation (S5). Cultivable bacteria recovered from the 5 stages were counted and identified by means of polymerase chain reaction assay (16S rRNA). Both groups had colony-forming unit counts significantly reduced after S2 (P < .05); however, no significant difference was found between the irrigants (S2 and S3, P = .99). No difference in bacteria counts was found between the intracanal medicaments used (P = .95). The most prevalent bacteria detected were Actinomyces naeslundii (66.67%), followed by Porphyromonas endodontalis, Parvimonas micra, and Fusobacterium nucleatum, which were detected in 33.34% of the root canals. An average of 2.13 species per canal was found, and no statistical correlation was observed between bacterial species and clinical/radiographic features. The microbial profile of infected immature teeth is similar to that of primarily infected permanent teeth. The greatest bacterial reduction was promoted by the irrigation solutions. The revascularization protocols that used the tested intracanal medicaments were efficient in reducing viable bacteria in necrotic immature teeth.

Botulinum Toxin--how A Poison Turned To A Fascinating Ally Against An Old Adversary.

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Clinical Consequences Of Tityus Bahiensis And Tityus Serrulatus Scorpion Stings In The Region Of Campinas, Southeastern Brazil.

Scorpion stings account for most envenomations by venomous animals in Brazil. A retrospective study (1994-2011) of the clinical consequences of Tityus scorpion stings in 1327 patients treated at a university hospital in Campinas, southeastern Brazil, is reported. The clinical classification, based on outcome, was: dry sting (no envenoming), class I (only local manifestations), class II (systemic manifestations), class III (life-threatening manifestations, such as shock and/or cardiac failure requiring inotropic/vasopressor agents, and/or respiratory failure), and fatal. The median patient age was 27 years (interquartile interval = 15-42 years). Scorpions were brought for identification in 47.2% of cases (Tityus bahiensis 27.7%; Tityus serrulatus 19.5%). Sting severity was classified and each accounted for the following percentage of cases: dry stings - 3.4%, class I - 79.6%, class II - 15.1%, class III - 1.8% and fatal - 0.1%. Pain was the primary local manifestation (95.5%). Systemic manifestations such as vomiting, agitation, sweating, dyspnea, bradycardia, tachycardia, tachypnea, somnolence/lethargy, cutaneous paleness, hypothermia and hypotension were detected in class II or class III + fatal groups, but were significantly more frequent in the latter group. Class III and fatal cases occurred only in children <15 years old, with scorpions being identified in 13/25 cases (T. serrulatus, n = 12; T. bahiensis, n = 1). Laboratory blood abnormalities (hyperglycemia, hypokalemia, leukocytosis, elevations in serum total CK, CK-MB and troponin T, bicarbonate consumption and an increase in base deficit and blood lactate), electrocardiographic changes (ST segment) and echocardiographic alterations (ventricular ejected fraction <54%) were frequently detected in class III patients. Seventeen patients developed pulmonary edema, 16 had cardiac failure and seven had cardiogenic shock. These results indicate that most scorpion stings involved only local manifestations, mainly pain; the greatest severity was associated with stings by T. serrulatus and in children <15 years old.

Equity Of Access To Pap Smears: Population-based Study In Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil.

To determine the prevalence of the Papanicolaou exam among women aged 20 to 59 years in the city of Campinas (state of São Paulo, Brazil) and to analyze associations between this test and affiliation to private health insurance plans as well as socioeconomic/demographic variables and health-related behavior. To do so, a population-based, cross-sectional study was carried out. Statistical analyses took the study design into account. Despite the significant socioeconomic differences between women with and without private health plans, no differences between these groups were found regarding having been submitted to the Papanicolaou test. In fact no differences were found as to socioeconomic and health variables analyzed. Among all variables analyzed, only marital status was significantly associated with having undergone the test. The Brazilian public health system accounted for 55.7% of the exams. The present findings indicate social equity in the city of Campinas regarding the preventive exam for cervical cancer in the age group studied.