Policy Labels and Investment Decision-making

Much attention in recent years has turned to the potential of behavioural insights to improve the performance of government policy. One behavioural concept of interest is the effect of a cash transfer label on how the transfer is spent. The Winter Fuel Payment (WFP) is a labelled cash transfer to offset the costs of keeping older households warm in the winter. Previous research has shown that households spend a higher proportion of the WFP on energy expenditures due to its label (Beatty et al., 2011). If households interpret the WFP as money for their energy bills, it may reduce their willingness to undertake investments which help achieving the same goal, such as the adoption of renewable energy technologies. In this paper we show that the WFP has distortionary effects on the renewable technology market. Using the sharp eligibility criteria of the WFP in a Regression Discontinuity Design, this analysis finds a reduction in the propensity to install renewable energy technologies of around 2.7 percentage points due to the WFP. This is a considerable number. It implies that 62% of households (whose oldest member turns 60) would have invested in renewable energy but refrain to do so after receiving the WFP. This analysis suggests that the labelling effect spreads to products related to the labelled good. In this case, households use too much energy from sources which generate pollution and too little from relatively cleaner technologies.

Comparison of time-lapse GPR data collected under natural and forced infiltration conditions to estimate vadose zone hydraulic parameters

Time-lapse crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data, collected while infiltration occurs, can provide valuable information regarding the hydraulic properties of the unsaturated zone. In particular, the stochastic inversion of such data provides estimates of parameter uncertainties, which are necessary for hydrological prediction and decision making. Here, we investigate the effect of different infiltration conditions on the stochastic inversion of time-lapse, zero-offset-profile, GPR data. Inversions are performed using a Bayesian Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo methodology. Our results clearly indicate that considering data collected during a forced infiltration test helps to better refine soil hydraulic properties compared to data collected under natural infiltration conditions

Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets

This paper investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement, which is mainly attributed to shocks to non-fundamentals. Global fundamentals, especially global inflation, affect yields through a ‘policy channel’ and a ‘risk compensation channel’, but the effects through two channels are offset. This evidence explains the unsatisfactory performance of fundamentals-driven term structure models. Our approach delineates asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. The proposed model is robust as identified factors has significant explanatory power of excess returns. The finding that global inflation uncertainty is useful in explaining realized excess returns does not rule out regime changing as a source of non-fundamental fluctuations.

Enhancing the vertical resolution of surface georadar data

There are far-reaching conceptual similarities between bi-static surface georadar and post-stack, "zero-offset" seismic reflection data, which is expressed in largely identical processing flows. One important difference is, however, that standard deconvolution algorithms routinely used to enhance the vertical resolution of seismic data are notoriously problematic or even detrimental to the overall signal quality when applied to surface georadar data. We have explored various options for alleviating this problem and have tested them on a geologically well-constrained surface georadar dataset. Standard stochastic and direct deterministic deconvolution approaches proved to be largely unsatisfactory. While least-squares-type deterministic deconvolution showed some promise, the inherent uncertainties involved in estimating the source wavelet introduced some artificial "ringiness". In contrast, we found spectral balancing approaches to be effective, practical and robust means for enhancing the vertical resolution of surface georadar data, particularly, but not exclusively, in the uppermost part of the georadar section, which is notoriously plagued by the interference of the direct air- and groundwaves. For the data considered in this study, it can be argued that band-limited spectral blueing may provide somewhat better results than standard band-limited spectral whitening, particularly in the uppermost part of the section affected by the interference of the air- and groundwaves. Interestingly, this finding is consistent with the fact that the amplitude spectrum resulting from least-squares-type deterministic deconvolution is characterized by a systematic enhancement of higher frequencies at the expense of lower frequencies and hence is blue rather than white. It is also consistent with increasing evidence that spectral "blueness" is a seemingly universal, albeit enigmatic, property of the distribution of reflection coefficients in the Earth. Our results therefore indicate that spectral balancing techniques in general and spectral blueing in particular represent simple, yet effective means of enhancing the vertical resolution of surface georadar data and, in many cases, could turn out to be a preferable alternative to standard deconvolution approaches.

Disseny i implementació d'una etapa d'acondicionament per a mesures de conductivitat realitzades amb un microscopi de forces atòmiques

En aquest treball, s’ha dissenyat un mòdul d’acondicionament a fi de millorar les mesures de conductivitat realitzades amb un AFM (Microscopi de Forces Atòmiques). L’equip actual disposa d’un preamplificador de baix soroll amb un guany de 10 10V/A. Donat que els corrents que es pretenen mesurar són extremadament petits (~pA), s’ha dissenyat un filtre per eliminar diferents fonts de soroll, com ara el soroll que introdueix la xarxa elèctrica a 50Hz. Es pretén reduir aquesta component freqüencial un factor mínim de 10 (20dB). També s’ha afegit un filtre passa baixos per eliminar els soroll que es troba fora de l’amplada de banda del preamplificador. S’ha introduït una etapa d’amplificació de guany variable: 1, 10 i 100 per augmentar la flexibilitat de l’equip i finalment també s’ha dissenyat una etapa per eliminar la tensió d’offset d’aquest amplificador. L’abast del treball anirà des del disseny fins la implementació final sobre una placa PCB.

Predicting community and ecosystem outcomes of mycorrhizal responses to global change.

Mycorrhizal symbioses link the biosphere with the lithosphere by mediating nutrient cycles and energy flow though terrestrial ecosystems. A more mechanistic understanding of these plant-fungal associations may help ameliorate anthropogenic changes to C and N cycles and biotic communities. We explore three interacting principles: (1) optimal allocation, (2) biotic context and (3) fungal adaptability that may help predict mycorrhizal responses to carbon dioxide enrichment, nitrogen eutrophication, invasive species and land-use changes. Plant-microbial feedbacks and thresholds are discussed in light of these principles with the goal of generating testable hypotheses. Ideas to develop large-scale collaborative research efforts are presented. It is our hope that mycorrhizal symbioses can be effectively integrated into global change models and eventually their ecology will be understood well enough so that they can be managed to help offset some of the detrimental effects of anthropogenic environmental change.

Modelado de una cámara de onda milimétrica

En aquest projecte s'ha dissenyat i simulat una càmera d'ones mil·limètriques mitjançant "Spinning Reflectors" amb l'objectiu d'estudiar la qualitat de les imatges obtingudes, així com determinar la configuració de reflectors acceptable per a la nostra càmera. Per al seu disseny, s'ha realitzat el model d'una antena Cassegrain amb botzina alimentadora a FEKO i s'han simulat els diagrames de radiació corresponents als diferents angles de rotació d'ambdós reflectors al voltant de l'eix en el qual estan situats. Finalment, a partir del principi de funcionament de la nostra càmera, s'ha exposat la seva implementació física i s'ha representat en Matlab la seva PSF (Point Spread Function) i la imatge d'un objecte arbitrari d'acord amb les tècniques de formació d'imatges.

Anàlisi i disseny d'un reflector per banda W

Les ones passives mil·limètriques (30 a 300GHz) tenen la peculiaritat de propagar-se en medis com la boira o la roba, a diferència del rang visible o l’infraroig. D’aquesta peculiaritat, surt l’interès de reproduir imatges per diverses aplicacions (seguretat, vigilància, etc...). És per aquest motiu que es treballa en el disseny d’un reflector per aquest tipus d’aplicació, treballant a una de les finestres de propagació d’aquest rang, la de la banda W. Es dissenyen i analitzen tres tipus de reflector: parabòlic simètric, offset i Cassegrain. D’aquests, s’estudien les seves figures de mèrit i directivitats buscant que aquestes siguin el més elevades possibles per obtenir una bona resolució, així com l’escaneig de l’escena de la qual es vol obtenir una imatge, veient aquí els efectes de les aberracions més comunes.

What if there was a stronger pharmaceutical price competition in Spain? When regulation has a similar effect to collusion

This paper examines statins competition in the Spanish pharmaceutical market, where prices are highly regulated, and simulates a situation in which there is unrestricted price competition. A nested logit demand model is estimated with a panel of monthly data for pharmaceuticals prescribed from 1997 to 2005. The simulation indicates that the regulation of prices is similar in its effects to cooperation among producers, since the regulated prices are close to those that would be observed in a scenario of perfect collusion. Freedom to set prices and a regulatory framework with appropriate incentives would result in a general reduction in prices and may make the current veiled competition in the form of discounts to pharmacists become more visible. The decrease in prices would be partially offset by an increase in consumption but the net effect would be an overall decrease in expenditure. The counterfactual set-up would also lead to important changes in the market shares of both manufacturers and active ingredients, and a reversal of generic drugs. Therefore, pro-competitive regulation would be welfare-enhancing but would imply winners and losers.

Anatomic shoulder arthroplasty: consequences of humeral head malposition

Purpose Third generation anatomic total shoulder prostheses offer a wide range of adaptability (size, thickness, retroversion and offset of the humeral head, cervico-diaphyseal angle) in order to reproduce anatomy and biomechanics of the shoulder as normal as possible. The large variability of the implants may also induce malposition. Our goal was to analyse the consequences of a humeral head malposition, which is one of the most frequent placement errors. Material and Methods A 3D finite element model of the glenohumeral joint, including the rotator cuff muscles and the deltoid, was used with the Aequalis anatomic prosthesis. Active abduction was simulated. Three humeral head placements were compared : anatomic positioning (A), 5 mm inferior positioning (B), 5 mm superior positioning (C). The effect of humeral head malposition was evaluated through the following quantities : the range of motion free of impingements, the glenohumeral contact pattern, and the stress within the polyethylene and the cement. Results Inferior positioning (B) of the humeral head produced a superior impingement before 90° of abduction, an inferior eccentric contact point on the glenoid, and 165% increase of cement stress. Superior positioning (C) of the humeral head produced a postero-superior eccentric contact point on the glenoid, 300% increase of glenohumeral contact pressure, 450% increase of polyethylene stress, and 207% increase of cement stress. Conclusion Malposition of the humeral head of anatomic prostheses induces biomechanical consequences that may preclude the glenoid survival. Particular attention must be paid to reproduce the humeral anatomy as normal as possible.

Comrades or Culprits? Donor Engagement and Budget Transparency in Aid Dependent Countries

Budget transparency has come to be considered a key aspect of governance. Over the past decade, donors have invested increasing resources in strengthening processes through which budget transparency in developing countries can be enhanced. According to the 2008 Open Budget Index (OBI) Report, however, aid dependency and budget transparency appear to be inversely correlated. This article looks at the role of donor agencies in promoting or preventing budget transparency in aid dependent countries. It analyzes data for a sample of 16 aid-dependent countries included in the OBI, to test some preliminary hypotheses and select six countries for which more detailed findings are then presented. All of these countries have implemented reforms aimed at enhancing budget transparency, with substantial donor support. These, however, often had only limited success, partly because they were not well adapted to the local context, and partly because donors put limited emphasis on improving public access to budget information. Donor efforts were also often offset by other characteristics of donor interventions, namely their fragmentation, lack of transparency, and limited use of program aid modalities such as budget support and pooled sector funding.

Are virtual planning and guided surgery for head and neck reconstruction economically viable?

PURPOSE: Virtual planning and guided surgery with or without prebent or milled plates are becoming more and more common for mandibular reconstruction with fibular free flaps (FFFs). Although this excellent surgical option is being used more widely, the question of the additional cost of planning and cutting-guide production has to be discussed. In capped payment systems such additional costs have to be offset by other savings if there are no special provisions for extra funding. Our study was designed to determine whether using virtual planning and guided surgery resulted in time saved during surgery and whether this time gain resulted in self-funding of such planning through the time saved. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All consecutive cases of FFF surgery were evaluated during a 2-year period. Institutional data were used to determine the price of 1 minute of operative time. The time for fibula molding, plate adaptation, and insetting was recorded. RESULTS: During the defined period, we performed 20 mandibular reconstructions using FFFs, 9 with virtual planning and guided surgery and 11 freehand cases. One minute of operative time was calculated to cost US $47.50. Multiplying this number by the time saved, we found that the additional cost of virtual planning was reduced from US $5,098 to US $1,231.50 with a prebent plate and from US $6,980 to US $3,113.50 for a milled plate. CONCLUSIONS: Even in capped health care systems, virtual planning and guided surgery including prebent or milled plates are financially viable.

Alcohol drinking and cardiovascular risk in a population with high mean alcohol consumption.

Moderate alcohol consumption has been associated with lower coronary artery disease (CAD) risk. However, data on the CAD risk associated with high alcohol consumption are conflicting. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of heavier drinking on 10-year CAD risk in a population with high mean alcohol consumption. In a population-based study of 5,769 adults (aged 35 to 75 years) without cardiovascular disease in Switzerland, 1-week alcohol consumption was categorized as 0, 1 to 6, 7 to 13, 14 to 20, 21 to 27, 28 to 34, and > or =35 drinks/week or as nondrinkers (0 drinks/week), moderate (1 to 13 drinks/week), high (14 to 34 drinks/week), and very high (> or =35 drinks/week). Blood pressure and lipids were measured, and 10-year CAD risk was calculated according to the Framingham risk score. Seventy-three percent (n = 4,214) of the participants consumed alcohol; 16% (n = 909) were high drinkers and 2% (n = 119) very high drinkers. In multivariate analysis, increasing alcohol consumption was associated with higher high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (from a mean +/- SE of 1.57 +/- 0.01 mmol/L in nondrinkers to 1.88 +/- 0.03 mmol/L in very high drinkers); triglycerides (1.17 +/- 1.01 to 1.32 +/- 1.05 mmol/L), and systolic and diastolic blood pressure (127.4 +/- 0.4 to 132.2 +/- 1.4 mm Hg and 78.7 +/- 0.3 to 81.7 +/- 0.9 mm Hg, respectively) (all p values for trend <0.001). Ten-year CAD risk increased from 4.31 +/- 0.10% to 4.90 +/- 0.37% (p = 0.03) with alcohol use, with a J-shaped relation. Increasing wine consumption was more related to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, whereas beer and spirits were related to increased triglyceride levels. In conclusion, as measured by 10-year CAD risk, the protective effect of alcohol consumption disappears in very high drinkers, because the beneficial increase in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol is offset by the increases in blood pressure levels.

Rare earth elements and stable isotope geochemistry (δ13C and δ18O) of phosphorite deposits in the Gafsa Basin, Tunisia

Rare earth elements (REE) and stable isotope compositions (delta C-13 and delta O-18) of shark teeth and phosphatic coprolites were analyzed from the Lower Maastrichtian layers of the El Haria Formation and two sequences of the Paleocene-Eocene (P/E) Chouabine Formation in the Gafsa Basin (south western of Tunisia) in order to trace the sedimentological, climatic and oceanographic conditions. The REE chemistry and their distribution in the two archives are the same for each of the studied layers indicating that the coprolites and shark teeth experienced the same early diagenetic environments. However major differences occur between the Maastrichtian and the P/E reflecting changes in the depositional conditions. The Early Maastrichtian burial environment tended to be more anoxic with REE derived from reduced FeO. While in the P/E the REE patterns mimic the modern oxic-suboxic seawater, the REE source from remineralisation of organic coating could have more significance. The oxygen isotope compositions of the structural phosphates (delta O-18(PO4)) indicate a stable and warm climate during both studied time intervals. A small offset (-0.4 parts per thousand) in the delta O-18 value between the coprolites and shark teeth show minor thermal gradient between bottom and surface water. The pronounced negative shift of 34%. in delta C-13 values recorded in the upper part of the Chouabine Formation was ascribed to the Paleocene-Eocene boundary. At the same time the lack of negative change in the delta O-18 is explained by the semi-closed situation of the Gafsa Basin, which situation also played an important role in the evolution of the organic matters in the sediment resulting in the exceptional low delta C-13 values. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term transcutaneous monitoring of oxygen tension and carbon dioxide at 42 degrees C in critically ill neonates: improved performance of the tcpo2 monitor with topical metabolic inhibition.

Whereas during the last few years handling of the transcutaneous PO2 (tcPO2) and PCO2 (tcPCO2) sensor has been simplified, the high electrode temperature and the short application time remain major drawbacks. In order to determine whether the application of a topical metabolic inhibitor allows reliable measurement at a sensor temperature of 42 degrees C for a period of up to 12 h, we performed a prospective, open, nonrandomized study in a sequential sample of 20 critically ill neonates. A total of 120 comparisons (six repeated measurements per patient) between arterial and transcutaneous values were obtained. Transcutaneous values were measured with a control sensor at 44 degrees C (conventional contact medium, average application time 3 h) and a test sensor at 42 degrees C (Eugenol solution, average application time 8 h). Comparison of tcPO2 and PaO2 at 42 degrees C (Eugenol solution) showed a mean difference of +0.16 kPa (range +1.60 to -2.00 kPa), limits of agreement +1.88 and -1.56 kPa. Comparison of tcPO2 and PaO2 at 44 degrees C (control sensor) revealed a mean difference of +0.02 kPa (range +2.60 to -1.90 kPa), limits of agreement +2.12 and -2.08 kPa. Comparison of tcPCO2 and PaCO2 at 42 degrees C (Eugenol solution) showed a mean difference of +0.91 (range +2.30 to +0.10 kPa), limits of agreement +2.24 and -0.42 kPa. Comparison of tcPCO2 and PaCO2 at 44 degrees C (control sensor) revealed a mean difference of +0.63 kPa (range 1.50 to -0.30 kPa), limits of agreement +1.73 and -0.47 kPa. CONCLUSION: Our results show that the use of an Eugenol solution allows reliable measurement of tcPO2 at a heating temperature of 42 degrees C; the application time can be prolongued up to a maximum of 12 h without aggravating the skin lesions. The performance of the tcPCO2 monitor was slightly worse at 42 degrees C than at 44 degrees C suggesting that for the Eugenol solution the metabolic offset should be corrected.