Mg/Ca values for planktonic foraminifera N. pachyderma and G. bulloides from ocean sediment core MD02-2496 on the Vancouver margin, Northeastern Pacific Ocean

A new, high-resolution planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca-based ocean temperature record has been generated for deep sea core MD02-2496, sited offshore of Vancouver Island, Western Canada during the last deglaciation (21-12 ka). The relationship between Cordilleran Ice Sheet (CIS) retreat and changing regional ocean temperatures has been reconstructed through glaciomarine sediments in MD02-2496 that capture tidewater glacier response to surface ocean thermal forcing. At CIS maximum extent, the marine margin of the ice sheet advanced onto the continental shelf. During this interval, ocean temperatures recorded by surface ocean dwelling Globigerina bulloides remained a relatively constant ~7.5°C while subsurface dwelling Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (s.) recorded temperatures of ~5°C. These ocean temperatures were sufficiently warm to induce significant melt along the tidewater ice terminus similar to modern Alaskan tidewater glacial systems. During the deglacial retreat of the CIS, the N. pachyderma temperature record shows two distinct warming steps of ~2 and 2.5°C between 17.2-16 and 15.5-14 ka respectively, coincident with ice rafting events from the CIS, while G. bulloides records an ~3°C warming from 15 to14 ka. We hypothesize that submarine melting resulting from relatively warm ocean temperatures was an important process driving ice removal from CIS tidewater glaciers during the initial stages of deglaciation.

(Table 1) AMS radiocarbon ages from ODP Sites 169-1033 and 169-1034

This paper explores the paleoseismic record potentially preserved in the upper 40 m of hydraulic piston cores collected in 1996 at two sites in Saanich Inlet, British Columbia, during ocean drilling program (ODP) Leg 169S. The ODP cores are missing 1-2 m of water-rich sediment directly underlying the seafloor, but this sediment is preserved in shorter piston cores collected in 1989 and 1991. The upper part of the ODP cores consists of rhythmically laminated (varved) marine mud with intercalated massive beds, interpreted to be debris flow deposits. Some of the debris flow deposits are linked to past earthquakes, including the 1946 Vancouver Island earthquake (M7.2), a great (M8-9) plate-boundary earthquake at the Cascadia subduction zone in January 1700, and a large crustal or plate-boundary earthquake about 1000 yr ago. Earthquakes may also be responsible for debris flows in about AD 1600, 1500, 1250, 1150, 850, 450, 350, 180, and BC 200, 220, 500, 900, and 1050. If so, the average recurrence interval for moderate to large earthquakes, which trigger debris flows in Saanich Inlet, is about 150 yr. This recurrence interval is broadly consistent with the frequency of moderate to large earthquakes in the region during the historical period. Debris flows, however, can also be triggered by non-seismic processes, making it difficult to assemble a complete earthquake record from the Saanich Inlet cores. We propose that extensive debris flow deposits, emplaced by single large failures or many smaller coincident failures, probably have a seismic origin.

(Table 2) Trace metal concentrations in ODP Hole 169-1033B

We measured the concentrations of redox-sensitive trace metals (Mn, V, Mo, U, Cd and Re) in sediments from ODP Leg 169S Hole 1033B in Saanich Inlet, British Columbia, to determine changes in redox conditions associated with the onset of laminated sediments at ~12.5 kyr. The most striking result is a large peak in authigenic Re along with detrital levels of Mo at the glacial terrigenous clay-diatomaceous sediment transition. In contrast, the underlying glacial terrigenous clay, which extends throughout the bottom section of the core, is chemically similar to detrital concentrations, either Cowichan River particulates or average shale values. These data suggest a period of oxic bottom waters but reducing pore-waters. This could be due to the dramatic transformation of Saanich Inlet during the late deglaciation from an open bay to an inlet, which restricted circulation and slowed bottom water oxygen renewal. A peak and gradual increase in authigenic Mn in younger sediments subsequent to the Re peak suggests that increasingly oxic conditions followed the authigenic enrichment in Re. These conditions could be connected to the Younger Dryas cooling period, which was coincident with an increase in well oxygenated upwelled waters on the west coast of North America that form the bottom waters of Saanich Inlet. Metal concentrations in a gray clay bed (~11 kyr) are similar to their concentrations in the glacial terrigenous clay, implying that they have a common source. Authigenic enrichments of Re with little authigenic Mo and Cd suggest that before the deposition of this bed, bottom waters were oxic and pore-water oxygen was consumed in the top centimeter or less. Laminations above the clay layer suggest anoxic conditions, which are also indicated by higher authigenic Mo and Cd and slightly lower Re/Mo ratios in these sediments. The basin remained mostly anoxic after the gray clay was emplaced, as seen by continuous authigenic enrichment of the redox-sensitive trace metals. These results are consistent with increased stratification of the water column, brought about by an influx of fresh water to the basin by a large flood.

(Table 1) Depth and revised depth from ODP Sites 169-1033 and 169-1034

The Holocene section in Saanich Inlet, Vancouver Island, British Columbia, is 50-70 m thick. Cores from Saanich Inlet obtained during Leg 169S of the Ocean Drilling Program afford an excellent opportunity to obtain an ultrahigh-resolution paleomagnetic and environmental magnetic record for the Holocene and Late Pleistocene of western Canada. We have used an automated, long-core cryogenic magnetometer to study over 380 m of continuous u-channel samples from ODP Sites 1033 and 1034, the two sites that constitute Leg 169S. Holocene records of paleomagnetic inclination and intensity show excellent intra-site correlation and can be used to fine-tune the lithologic correlation among cores from each site. The Late Pleistocene magnetic records provide a means of intra-site correlation of the otherwise featureless marine clay. Near the Holocene/Late Pleistocene boundary, both sites contain a magnetic intensity feature that is interpreted as a Missoula-type flood event on the Fraser River. The composite Holocene inclination records from the two sites are quite similar and provide a means of comparing current age-models that are based on radiocarbon dating of material from each site. This comparison shows only minor differences in the available age-models. It also provides strong evidence that the sediments of Saanich Inlet represent a reliable record of geomagnetic field behavior.

Total organic carbon, metal concentrations and metal and aluminium ratios in bulk sediment from the ODP sample 169-1033B-4H-4,54-74

Holocene laminated sediments in Saanich Inlet, British Columbia, are interrupted by frequent, non-laminated, massive layers. These layers may be debris flows released by earthquakes or bioturbated sediments deposited during periods of relatively high bottom water oxygen concentration and/or low surface productivity, or both. We determined the organic carbon content and the concentration of a suite of redox-sensitive metals in bulk sediments at approximately 1-cm resolution across a laminated-massive-laminated interval (ODP Leg 169S Sample 1033B-4H-4,54-74), to determine the redox conditions under which the massive layer was deposited. Our results indicate that this massive interval was deposited under anoxic bottom waters. Manganese/Al ratios are consistently low throughout the massive section, while Mo/Al, Cd/Al, Re/Al, and U/Al ratios are enriched relative to their metal/Al ratios in detrital material (represented by Cowichan River suspended sediments). The concentration of organic carbon in the lower portion of the massive layer is higher than in the upper portion, which has a concentration similar to that in the overlying and underlying laminated sediments. Well-defined peaks in Mo/Al, Cd/Al, and Re/Al and a broad peak in U/Al occur in the lower portion of the massive layer. The positions of the Cd/Al, Re/Al, and Mo/Al peaks, as well as the increase in organic carbon content with depth in the massive layer, are best explained by a process of diagenetic redistribution of metals that occurred after the massive layer was emplaced.

The Labrador current between Hamilton Inlet and the Strait of Belle Isle, July 1968 /

"CG 373-41."

Wave breaking on a current at an idealized inlet with an ebb shoal /

"April 2001."

Macro and micro plastics in an urbanized and non-urbanized fjord estuary in the Northeast Pacific Ocean

Senior thesis written for Oceanography 445

Data to Decision in a Dynamic Ocean: Robust Species Distribution Models and Spatial Decision Frameworks

Human use of the oceans is increasingly in conflict with conservation of endangered species. Methods for managing the spatial and temporal placement of industries such as military, fishing, transportation and offshore energy, have historically been post hoc; i.e. the time and place of human activity is often already determined before assessment of environmental impacts. In this dissertation, I build robust species distribution models in two case study areas, US Atlantic (Best et al. 2012) and British Columbia (Best et al. 2015), predicting presence and abundance respectively, from scientific surveys. These models are then applied to novel decision frameworks for preemptively suggesting optimal placement of human activities in space and time to minimize ecological impacts: siting for offshore wind energy development, and routing ships to minimize risk of striking whales. Both decision frameworks relate the tradeoff between conservation risk and industry profit with synchronized variable and map views as online spatial decision support systems.

For siting offshore wind energy development (OWED) in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 4), bird density maps are combined across species with weights of OWED sensitivity to collision and displacement and 10 km2 sites are compared against OWED profitability based on average annual wind speed at 90m hub heights and distance to transmission grid. A spatial decision support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot views by site. A selected site can be inspected for sensitivity to a cetaceans throughout the year, so as to capture months of the year which minimize episodic impacts of pre-operational activities such as seismic airgun surveying and pile driving.

Routing ships to avoid whale strikes (chapter 5) can be similarly viewed as a tradeoff, but is a different problem spatially. A cumulative cost surface is generated from density surface maps and conservation status of cetaceans, before applying as a resistance surface to calculate least-cost routes between start and end locations, i.e. ports and entrance locations to study areas. Varying a multiplier to the cost surface enables calculation of multiple routes with different costs to conservation of cetaceans versus cost to transportation industry, measured as distance. Similar to the siting chapter, a spatial decisions support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot view of proposed routes. The user can also input arbitrary start and end locations to calculate the tradeoff on the fly.

Essential to the input of these decision frameworks are distributions of the species. The two preceding chapters comprise species distribution models from two case study areas, U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2) and British Columbia (chapter 3), predicting presence and density, respectively. Although density is preferred to estimate potential biological removal, per Marine Mammal Protection Act requirements in the U.S., all the necessary parameters, especially distance and angle of observation, are less readily available across publicly mined datasets.

In the case of predicting cetacean presence in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2), I extracted datasets from the online OBIS-SEAMAP geo-database, and integrated scientific surveys conducted by ship (n=36) and aircraft (n=16), weighting a Generalized Additive Model by minutes surveyed within space-time grid cells to harmonize effort between the two survey platforms. For each of 16 cetacean species guilds, I predicted the probability of occurrence from static environmental variables (water depth, distance to shore, distance to continental shelf break) and time-varying conditions (monthly sea-surface temperature). To generate maps of presence vs. absence, Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to define the optimal threshold that minimizes false positive and false negative error rates. I integrated model outputs, including tables (species in guilds, input surveys) and plots (fit of environmental variables, ROC curve), into an online spatial decision support system, allowing for easy navigation of models by taxon, region, season, and data provider.

For predicting cetacean density within the inner waters of British Columbia (chapter 3), I calculated density from systematic, line-transect marine mammal surveys over multiple years and seasons (summer 2004, 2005, 2008, and spring/autumn 2007) conducted by Raincoast Conservation Foundation. Abundance estimates were calculated using two different methods: Conventional Distance Sampling (CDS) and Density Surface Modelling (DSM). CDS generates a single density estimate for each stratum, whereas DSM explicitly models spatial variation and offers potential for greater precision by incorporating environmental predictors. Although DSM yields a more relevant product for the purposes of marine spatial planning, CDS has proven to be useful in cases where there are fewer observations available for seasonal and inter-annual comparison, particularly for the scarcely observed elephant seal. Abundance estimates are provided on a stratum-specific basis. Steller sea lions and harbour seals are further differentiated by ‘hauled out’ and ‘in water’. This analysis updates previous estimates (Williams & Thomas 2007) by including additional years of effort, providing greater spatial precision with the DSM method over CDS, novel reporting for spring and autumn seasons (rather than summer alone), and providing new abundance estimates for Steller sea lion and northern elephant seal. In addition to providing a baseline of marine mammal abundance and distribution, against which future changes can be compared, this information offers the opportunity to assess the risks posed to marine mammals by existing and emerging threats, such as fisheries bycatch, ship strikes, and increased oil spill and ocean noise issues associated with increases of container ship and oil tanker traffic in British Columbia’s continental shelf waters.

Starting with marine animal observations at specific coordinates and times, I combine these data with environmental data, often satellite derived, to produce seascape predictions generalizable in space and time. These habitat-based models enable prediction of encounter rates and, in the case of density surface models, abundance that can then be applied to management scenarios. Specific human activities, OWED and shipping, are then compared within a tradeoff decision support framework, enabling interchangeable map and tradeoff plot views. These products make complex processes transparent for gaming conservation, industry and stakeholders towards optimal marine spatial management, fundamental to the tenets of marine spatial planning, ecosystem-based management and dynamic ocean management.