The precipitation climate of Central Asia: intercomparison of observational and numerical data sources in a remote semiarid region

In this study, we systematically compare a wide range of observational and numerical precipitation datasets for Central Asia. Data considered include two re-analyses, three datasets based on direct observations, and the output of a regional climate model simulation driven by a global re-analysis. These are validated and intercompared with respect to their ability to represent the Central Asian precipitation climate. In each of the datasets, we consider the mean spatial distribution and the seasonal cycle of precipitation, the amplitude of interannual variability, the representation of individual yearly anomalies, the precipitation sensitivity (i.e. the response to wet and dry conditions), and the temporal homogeneity of precipitation. Additionally, we carried out part of these analyses for datasets available in real time. The mutual agreement between the observations is used as an indication of how far these data can be used for validating precipitation data from other sources. In particular, we show that the observations usually agree qualitatively on anomalies in individual years while it is not always possible to use them for the quantitative validation of the amplitude of interannual variability. The regional climate model is capable of improving the spatial distribution of precipitation. At the same time, it strongly underestimates summer precipitation and its variability, while interannual variations are well represented during the other seasons, in particular in the Central Asian mountains during winter and spring

Observational tracking of the 2D structure of coronal mass ejections between the sun and 1 AU

The Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) provides high cadence and high resolution images of the structure and morphology of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the inner heliosphere. CME directions and propagation speeds have often been estimated through the use of time-elongation maps obtained from the STEREO Heliospheric Imager (HI) data. Many of these CMEs have been identified by citizen scientists working within the SolarStormWatch project ( www.solarstormwatch.com ) as they work towards providing robust real-time identification of Earth-directed CMEs. The wide field of view of HI allows scientists to directly observe the two-dimensional (2D) structures, while the relative simplicity of time-elongation analysis means that it can be easily applied to many such events, thereby enabling a much deeper understanding of how CMEs evolve between the Sun and the Earth. For events with certain orientations, both the rear and front edges of the CME can be monitored at varying heliocentric distances (R) between the Sun and 1 AU. Here we take four example events with measurable position angle widths and identified by the citizen scientists. These events were chosen for the clarity of their structure within the HI cameras and their long track lengths in the time-elongation maps. We show a linear dependency with R for the growth of the radial width (W) and the 2D aspect ratio (χ) of these CMEs, which are measured out to ≈ 0.7 AU. We estimated the radial width from a linear best fit for the average of the four CMEs. We obtained the relationships W=0.14R+0.04 for the width and χ=2.5R+0.86 for the aspect ratio (W and R in units of AU).

Exploring the interplay between natural decadal variability and anthropogenic climate change in summer rainfall over China. Part I: Observational evidence

Summer rainfall over China has experienced substantial variability on longer time scales during the last century, and the question remains whether this is due to natural, internal variability or is part of the emerging signal of anthropogenic climate change. Using the best available observations over China, the decadal variability and recent trends in summer rainfall are investigated with the emphasis on changes in the seasonal evolution and on the temporal characteristics of daily rainfall. The possible relationships with global warming are reassessed. Substantial decadal variability in summer rainfall has been confirmed during the period 1958–2008; this is not unique to this period but is also seen in the earlier decades of the twentieth century. Two dominant patterns of decadal variability have been identified that contribute substantially to the recent trend of southern flooding and northern drought. Natural decadal variability appears to dominate in general but in the cases of rainfall intensity and the frequency of rainfall days, particularly light rain days, then the dominant EOFs have a rather different character, being of one sign over most of China, and having principal components (PCs) that appear more trendlike. The increasing intensity of rainfall throughout China and the decrease in light rainfall days, particularly in the north, could at least partially be of anthropogenic origin, both global and regional, linked to increased greenhouse gases and increased aerosols.

Identifying and recording every casualty of armed conflict

This article discusses the international legal obligation to identify and record every casualty of armed conflict that finds its basis in the treaties and customs of international humanitarian law and international human rights law. The article applies the various facets of the legal obligation to the armed conflicts in Iraq and Sri Lanka and argues that the parties in these conflicts failed in their international legal responsibility to civilians.

Observational challenges in evaluating climate models

Activities like the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have revolutionized climate modelling in terms of our ability to compare models and to process information about climate projections and their uncertainties. The evaluation of models against observations is now considered a key component of multi-model studies. While there are a number of outstanding scientific issues surrounding model evaluation, notably the open question of how to link model performance to future projections, here we highlight a specific but growing problem in model evaluation - that of uncertainties in the observational data that are used to evaluate the models. We highlight the problem using an example obtained from studies of the South Asian Monsoon but we believe the problem is a generic one which arises in many different areas of climate model evaluation and which requires some attention by the community.

High sensitivity recording of afferent nerve activity using ultra-compliant microchannel electrodes: an acutein vivovalidation

Neuroprostheses interfaced with transected peripheral nerves are technological routes to control robotic limbs as well as convey sensory feedback to patients suffering from traumatic neural injuries or degenerative diseases. To maximize the wealth of data obtained in recordings, interfacing devices are required to have intrafascicular resolution and provide high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) recordings. In this paper, we focus on a possible building block of a three-dimensional regenerative implant: a polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) microchannel electrode capable of highly sensitive recordings in vivo. The PDMS 'micro-cuff' consists of a 3.5 mm long (100 µm × 70 µm cross section) microfluidic channel equipped with five evaporated Ti/Au/Ti electrodes of sub-100 nm thickness. Individual electrodes have average impedance of 640 ± 30 kΩ with a phase angle of −58 ± 1 degrees at 1 kHz and survive demanding mechanical handling such as twisting and bending. In proof-of-principle acute implantation experiments in rats, surgically teased afferent nerve strands from the L5 dorsal root were threaded through the microchannel. Tactile stimulation of the skin was reliably monitored with the three inner electrodes in the device, simultaneously recording signal amplitudes of up to 50 µV under saline immersion. The overall SNR was approximately 4. A small but consistent time lag between the signals arriving at the three electrodes was observed and yields a fibre conduction velocity of 30 m s−1. The fidelity of the recordings was verified by placing the same nerve strand in oil and recording activity with hook electrodes. Our results show that PDMS microchannel electrodes open a promising technological path to 3D regenerative interfaces.

Evaluation of an elastomer based gold microelectrode array for neural recording applications

We are reporting on the fabrication and electrical characterization of a novel elastomer based micro-cuff neural interface. Electrodes are gold (Au) tracks of sub-100nm thickness and are thermally evaporated on a 0.5 mm thick polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) substrate. We investigate how electrode area and immersion in phosphate buffered saline (PBS) at 37°C influence electrode impedance. A microfluidic channel is bonded to the electrode array to form the cuff. In an acute, in-vivo, proof-of-principle recording, the device is capable of detecting light stroking and pinch of a hind leg of an anaesthetized rat.

Compliant Multi-electrode Micro-channel Array for Recording Afferent Nerve Activity

We have fabricated a compliant neural interface to record afferent nerve activity. Stretchable gold electrodes were evaporated on a polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) substrate and were encapsulated using photo-patternable PDMS. The built-in microstructure of the gold film on PDMS allows the electrodes to twist and flex repeatedly, without loss of electrical conductivity. PDMS microchannels (5mm long, 100μm wide, 100μm deep) were then plasma bonded irreversibly on top of the electrode array to define five parallel-conduit implants. The soft gold microelectrodes have a low impedance of ~200kΩ at the 1kHz frequency range. Teased nerves from the L6 dorsal root of an anaesthetized Sprague Dawley rat were threaded through the microchannels. Acute tripolar recordings of cutaneous activity are demonstrated, from multiple nerve rootlets simultaneously. Confinement of the axons within narrow microchannels allows for reliable recordings of low amplitude afferents. This electrode technology promises exciting applications in neuroprosthetic devices including bladder fullness monitors and peripheral nervous system implants.

Dynamical and observational constraints on tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures at the last glacial maximum

Asynchronously coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation model simulations are used to examine the consequences of changes in the west/east sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient across the equatorial Pacific at the last glacial maximum (LGM). Simulations forced by the CLIMAP SST for the LGM, where the west/east SST gradient across the Pacific is reduced compared to present, produce a reduction in the strength of the trade winds and a decrease in the west/east slope of the equatorial thermocline that is incompatible with thermocline depths newly inferred from foraminiferal assemblages. Stronger-than-present trade winds, and a more realistic simulation of the thermocline slope, are produced when eastern Pacific SSTs are 2°C cooler than western Pacific SSTs. Our study highlights the importance of spatial heterogeneity in tropical SSTs in determining key features of the glacial climate.

Seasonal intercomparison of observational rainfall datasets over India during the southwest monsoon season

The Indian monsoon is an important component of Earth's climate system, accurate forecasting of its mean rainfall being essential for regional food and water security. Accurate measurement of the rainfall is essential for various water-related applications, the evaluation of numerical models and detection and attribution of trends, but a variety of different gridded rainfall datasets are available for these purposes. In this study, six gridded rainfall datasets are compared against the India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall dataset, chosen as the most representative of the observed system due to its high gauge density. The datasets comprise those based solely on rain gauge observations and those merging rain gauge data with satellite-derived products. Various skill scores and subjective comparisons are carried out for the Indian region during the south-west monsoon season (June to September). Relative biases and skill metrics are documented at all-India and sub-regional scales. In the gauge-based (land-only) category, Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APHRODITE) and Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) datasets perform better relative to the others in terms of a variety of skill metrics. In the merged category, the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) dataset is shown to perform better than the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) for the Indian monsoon in terms of various metrics, when compared with the IMD gridded data. Most of the datasets have difficulty in representing rainfall over orographic regions including the Western Ghats mountains, in north-east India and the Himalayan foothills. The wide range of skill scores seen among the datasets and even the change of sign of bias found in some years are causes of concern. This uncertainty between datasets is largest in north-east India. These results will help those studying the Indian monsoon region to select an appropriate dataset depending on their application and focus of research.