An observational and theoretical study of the structure and propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Adaptive Monitoring Strategies for Depression Treatment

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Stage is not a reliable indicator of tumor volume in non-small cell lung cancer: a preliminary analysis of the trans-tasman radiation oncology group 99-05 database

Background: Tumor volume has been shown to be a prognostic factor for the response of some tumors to radiotherapy. TNM stage has prognostic value for patients treated surgically for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), but its value is less clear for patients treated by nonsurgical means. This may be because tumor size is not a consistent determinant of T stage or stage group. As part of the preliminary analyses for the Trans-Tasman Radiation Oncology Group 99-05 study, the authors performed this analysis to determine to what extent stage reflects tumor volume. Methods: In this prospective multicenter observational study, patients had to have histologically proven NSCLC, no evidence of disease beyond the primary site or thoracic lymph nodes, and been planned for radical radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy. Tumor volume measurements were based on computed tomography-based treatment planning images. Results: Four hundred four patients were available for analysis. There was a strong correlation between (log) maximum tumor diameter and (log) tumor volume (r = 0.93, p < 0.001). Although there was a highly significant trend of increasing volume with increasing T stage and stage group, when tumors were categorized into four groups according to increasing volume, there was only 55% concordance with T stage and 67% concordance with stage group. Conclusions: There is limited correlation between tumor size and disease stage in patients with NSCLC. This justifies documentation and investigation of size as a potential prognostic factor independent of stage. Maximum tumor diameter may be an adequate substitute for volume as a measurement of size.

Data analysis methods in optometry. Part 5: correlation

1. Pearson's correlation coefficient only tests whether the data fit a linear model. With large numbers of observations, quite small values of r become significant and the X variable may only account for a minute proportion of the variance in Y. Hence, the value of r squared should always be calculated and included in a discussion of the significance of r. 2. The use of r assumes that a bivariate normal distribution is present and this assumption should be examined prior to the study. If Pearson's r is not appropriate, then a non-parametric correlation coefficient such as Spearman's rs may be used. 3. A significant correlation should not be interpreted as indicating causation especially in observational studies in which there is a high probability that the two variables are correlated because of their mutual correlations with other variables. 4. In studies of measurement error, there are problems in using r as a test of reliability and the ‘intra-class correlation coefficient’ should be used as an alternative. A correlation test provides only limited information as to the relationship between two variables. Fitting a regression line to the data using the method known as ‘least square’ provides much more information and the methods of regression and their application in optometry will be discussed in the next article.

Statnote 31:analysis of covariance

Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) is a useful method of ‘error control’, i.e., it can reduce the size of the error variance in an experimental or observational study. An initial measure obtained before the experiment, which is closely related to the final measurement, is used to adjust the final measurements, thus reducing the error variance. When this method is used to reduce the error term, the X variable must not itself be affected by the experimental treatments, because part of the treatment effect would then also be removed. Hence, the method can only be safely used when X is measured before an experiment. A further limitation of the analysis is that only the linear effect of Y on X is being removed and it is possible that Y could be a curvilinear function of X. A question often raised is whether ANCOVA should be used routinely in experiments rather than a randomized blocks or split-plot design, which may also reduce the error variance. The answer to this question depends on the relative precision of the difference methods with reference to each scenario. Considerable judgment is often required to select the best experimental design and statistical help should be sought at an early stage of an investigation.

Performing in a night-time leisure venue: a visual analysis of erotic dance

This article analyses a range of different meanings attached to images of erotic dance, with a particular focus on the 'impression management' (Goffman 1959) enacted by dancers. It presents a visual analysis of the work of a female erotic performer in a lesbian erotic dance venue in the UK. Still photographs, along with observational data and interviews, convey the complexity and skill of an erotic dancer's diverse gendered and sexualised performances. The visual data highlights the extensive 'aesthetic labour' (Nickson et al. 2001) and 'emotional labour' (Hochschild 1983) the dancer must put in to constructing her work 'self'. However, a more ambitious use of the visual is identified: the dancer's own use of images of her work. This use of the visual by dancers themselves highlights a more complex 'impression management' strategy undertaken by a dancer and brings into question the separation of 'real' and 'work' 'selves' in erotic dance. © Sociological Research Online, 1996-2012.

An artificial neural network stratifies the risks of reintervention and mortality after endovascular aneurysm repair:a retrospective observational study

Background Lifelong surveillance after endovascular repair (EVAR) of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) is considered mandatory to detect potentially life-threatening endograft complications. A minority of patients require reintervention but cannot be predictively identified by existing methods. This study aimed to improve the prediction of endograft complications and mortality, through the application of machine-learning techniques. Methods Patients undergoing EVAR at 2 centres were studied from 2004-2010. Pre-operative aneurysm morphology was quantified and endograft complications were recorded up to 5 years following surgery. An artificial neural networks (ANN) approach was used to predict whether patients would be at low- or high-risk of endograft complications (aortic/limb) or mortality. Centre 1 data were used for training and centre 2 data for validation. ANN performance was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis to compare the incidence of aortic complications, limb complications, and mortality; in patients predicted to be low-risk, versus those predicted to be high-risk. Results 761 patients aged 75 +/- 7 years underwent EVAR. Mean follow-up was 36+/- 20 months. An ANN was created from morphological features including angulation/length/areas/diameters/ volume/tortuosity of the aneurysm neck/sac/iliac segments. ANN models predicted endograft complications and mortality with excellent discrimination between a low-risk and high-risk group. In external validation, the 5-year rates of freedom from aortic complications, limb complications and mortality were 95.9% vs 67.9%; 99.3% vs 92.0%; and 87.9% vs 79.3% respectively (p0.001) Conclusion This study presents ANN models that stratify the 5-year risk of endograft complications or mortality using routinely available pre-operative data.

Obstructive sleep apnoea is associated with sight threatening retinopathy and predicts the developement of preproliferative and proliferative retinopathy in patients with type 2 diabetes:a longitudinal analysis

troduct I on . An observational longitudinal study. P ur P ose . Assess the relationship between obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) and DR cross-sectionally and longitudinally. M ethods . Adults with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), who were re - cruited from a hospital-based diabetes clinic in the UK. Patients with pre-existing OSA, end-stage renal disease and non-diabetic retinopa - thy were excluded. OSA (apnoea hypopnea index ≥ 5 events/hour) was assessed by a single overnight home-based cardio-respiratory study (Alice PDX, Philips Respironics, USA). DR was assessed us - ing retinal images between 2007 and 2012. Sight threatening diabetic retinopathy (STDR) was defined as presence of pre-proliferative or proliferative DR, maculopathy or photocoagulation. Advanced DR was defined as pre-proliferative or proliferative DR. r esults . 199 patients were included (57.3% (n=114) men, 47.7% (n=95) White Europeans). STDR and OSA prevalence were 38.7% (n=77) and 62.8% respectively. A t b A sel I ne . STR prevalence was higher in patients with OSA (OSA+) compared to those without OSA (OSA-) [48.8% n=61 vs. 21.6% n=16, p<0.001]. After adjustment for confounders, OSA remained independently associated with STR (OR 3.7, 95% CI 1.6-8.9, p=0.006), maculopathy (OR 4.5, 95% CI 1.8-11.4, p=0.002) and advanced DR (OR 3.9, 95% CI 1.02-15.3, p=0.047). Mild and moderate to severe OSA were independently associated with STR and maculopathy and only moderate to severe OSA was associated with advanced DR following adjustment for con - founders. l ong I tud I n A lly . Over the follow-up period of (4.4±1 years), more OSA+ patients progressed from no or background DR to advanced DR (15.3% (n=17) vs. 3% (n=2), p=0.01). OSA was an independent pre - dictor of advanced DR development after adjustment for confounders (OR 6.6, 95% CI 1.2-35.1, p=0.03). OSA did not predict the develop - ment of maculopathy. c onclus I ons . OSA is independently associated with STR and predicts the development of preproliferative and proliferative DR. Intervention - al studies are needed to assess the impact of OSA treatment on DR.

Obstructive sleep apnoea predicts the development of preproliferative and proliferative retinopathy in patients with type 2 diabetes:a longitudinal analysis

Background and aims: Diabetic Retinopathy (DR) is a leading cause of blindness. OSA is associated with increased oxidative and nitrosative stress and endothelial dysfunction in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Hence, it is plausible that OSA can promote the development and progression of DR. Materials and methods: An observational longitudinal study in adults with T2DM. Patients with pre-existing OSA, end-stage renal disease and non-diabetic retinopathy were excluded. OSA (apnoea hypopnea index ≥ 5 events/hour) was assessed by a single overnight home-based cardio-respiratory monitoring (Alice PDX, etc.). DR was assesses using retinal images between 2007 and 2012. Sight threatening retinopathy (STR) was defined as pre-proliferative or proliferative DR, maculopathy or photocoagulation. Advanced DR was defined as pre-proliferative or proliferative DR. Results: 199 patients were included (57.3% men, 47.7% White Europeans). STR and OSA prevalence were 38.7 % and 62.8% respectively. STR preva-lence was higher in patients with OSA (OSA+) compared to those with-out (OSA-) [48.8% vs. 21.6%, p <0.001]. After adjustment for confounders, OSA remained independently associated with STR (OR 3.7, 95%CI 1.6-8.9, p=0.006, maculopathy (OR 4.5, 1.8-11.4, p=0.002) and advanced DR (OR 3.9, 1.02-15.3, p=0.047). Over 4.4±1 years, more OSA+ patients progressed from no or background DR to advanced DR (15.3% vs. 3%, p=0.01). OSA was an independent predictor of advanced DR development after adjustment (OR 6.6, 95%CI 1.2-35.1, p=0.03). OSA did not predict the development of maculopathy. Patients received continuous positive airway pressure treatment were less likely to develop advanced DR. Conclusion: OSA is independently associated with STR and predicts the development of preproliferative and proliferative DR. Interventional studies are needed to assess the impact of OSA treatment on DR.Supported by: NIHR (UK) and The UK Novo Nordisk Research Foundation.

A postcolonial queer analysis of aboriginal queer clients' experiences of health care services in St. John's, Newfoundland

This thesis examines the gaps between health care services aimed at Aboriginal queer individuals living in St. John’s, Newfoundland and their health care needs. I used a multi-methods research design that includes interviews and demographic surveys, unobtrusive observation and qualitative content analysis. I conducted semi-structured interviews with institutional representatives from selected health related organizations – Eastern Health, Planned Parenthood Newfoundland and Labrador, the AIDS Committee of Newfoundland and Labrador, and St. John’s Native Friendship Center; as well as a transgender activist and three people who identify as Aboriginal and queer. I conducted observational research at two public seminars on Aboriginal people and health. Finally, I carried out qualitative content analysis of organizational reports and webpages of the selected community organizations. Using a postcolonial queer framework that analyzes how Newfoundland and Labrador’s colonial history is reflected in current health care realities I argue that the lack of appropriate services and culturally insensitive delivery of services reproduce the historical marginalization of an already vulnerable group.

Usage analysis of tier 2 public computers: Perkins & Bostock libraries first floor - May 2016

A spring 2016 report about public computer usage on the first floor of Perkins and Bostock libraries. This report includes data from survey questions, an observational study, and transaction logs. The report also includes recommendations for changes based on the data collected.

Safety and Use of Anticoagulation After Aortic Valve Replacement With Bioprostheses: A Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The American College of Cardiology guidelines recommend 3 months of anticoagulation after replacement of the aortic valve with a bioprosthesis. However, there remains great variability in the current clinical practice and conflicting results from clinical studies. To assist clinical decision making, we pooled the existing evidence to assess whether anticoagulation in the setting of a new bioprosthesis was associated with improved outcomes or greater risk of bleeding. METHODS AND RESULTS: We searched the PubMed database from the inception of these databases until April 2015 to identify original studies (observational studies or clinical trials) that assessed anticoagulation with warfarin in comparison with either aspirin or no antiplatelet or anticoagulant therapy. We included the studies if their outcomes included thromboembolism or stroke/transient ischemic attacks and bleeding events. Quality assessment was performed in accordance with the Newland Ottawa Scale, and random effects analysis was used to pool the data from the available studies. I(2) testing was done to assess the heterogeneity of the included studies. After screening through 170 articles, a total of 13 studies (cases=6431; controls=18210) were included in the final analyses. The use of warfarin was associated with a significantly increased risk of overall bleeding (odds ratio, 1.96; 95% confidence interval, 1.25-3.08; P<0.0001) or bleeding risk at 3 months (odds ratio, 1.92; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-3.34; P<0.0001) compared with aspirin or placebo. With regard to composite primary outcome variables (risk of venous thromboembolism, stroke, or transient ischemic attack) at 3 months, no significant difference was seen with warfarin (odds ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-1.56; P=0.67). Moreover, anticoagulation was also not shown to improve outcomes at time interval >3 months (odds ratio, 1.12; 95% confidence interval, 0.80-1.58; P=0.79). CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to the current guidelines, a meta-analysis of previous studies suggests that anticoagulation in the setting of an aortic bioprosthesis significantly increases bleeding risk without a favorable effect on thromboembolic events. Larger, randomized controlled studies should be performed to further guide this clinical practice.

Reducing child conduct disordered behaviour and improving parent mental health in disadvantaged families: a 12 month follow-up and cost analysis of a parenting intervention

The effectiveness of the Incredible Years Basic parent programme (IYBP) in reducing child conduct problems and improving parent competencies and mental health was examined in a 12-month follow-up. Pre- to post-intervention service use and related costs were also analysed. A total of 103 families and their children (aged 32–88 months), who previously participated in a randomised controlled trial of the IYBP, took part in a 12-month follow-up assessment. Child and parent behaviour and well-being were measured using psychometric and observational measures. An intention-to-treat analysis was carried out using a one-way repeated measures ANOVA. Pairwise comparisons were subsequently conducted to determine whether treatment outcomes were sustained 1 year post-baseline assessment. Results indicate that post-intervention improvements in child conduct problems, parenting behaviour and parental mental health were maintained. Service use and associated costs continued to decline. The results indicate that parent-focused interventions, implemented in the early years, can result in improvements in child and parent behaviour and well-being 12 months later. A reduced reliance on formal services is also indicated.

Exploring the effects of a universal classroom management training programme on teacher and child behaviour: a group randomised controlled trial and cost analysis

Teachers frequently struggle to cope with conduct problems in the classroom. The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness of the Incredible Years Teacher Classroom Management Training Programme for improving teacher competencies and child adjustment. The study involved a group randomised controlled trial which included 22 teachers and 217 children (102 boys and 115 girls). The average age of children included in the study was 5.3 years (standard deviation = 0.89). Teachers were randomly allocated to an intervention group (n = 11 teachers; 110 children) or a waiting-list control group (n = 11; 107 children). The sample also included 63 ‘high-risk’ children (33 intervention; 30 control), who scored above the cut-off (>12) on the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire for abnormal socioemotional and behavioural difficulties. Teacher and child behaviours were assessed at baseline and 6 months later using psychometric and observational measures. Programme delivery costs were also analysed. Results showed positive changes in teachers’ self-reported use of positive classroom management strategies (effect size = 0.56), as well as negative classroom management strategies (effect size = −0.43). Teacher reports also highlight improvements in the classroom behaviour of the high-risk group of children, while the estimated cost of delivering the Incredible Years Teacher Classroom Management Training Programme was modest. However, analyses of teacher and child observations were largely non-significant. A need for further research exploring the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the Incredible Years Teacher Classroom Management Training Programme is indicated.

Conservative fluid management or deresuscitation for patients with sepsis or acute respiratory distress syndrome following the resuscitation phase of critical illness: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

It is unknown whether a conservative approach to fluid administration or deresuscitation (active removal of fluid using diuretics or renal replacement therapy) is beneficial following haemodynamic stabilisation of critically ill patients.

Purpose

To evaluate the efficacy and safety of conservative or deresuscitative fluid strategies in adults and children with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), sepsis or systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) in the post-resuscitation phase of critical illness.

Methods

We searched Medline, EMBASE and the Cochrane central register of controlled trials from 1980 to June 2016, and manually reviewed relevant conference proceedings from 2009 to the present. Two reviewers independently assessed search results for inclusion and undertook data extraction and quality appraisal. We included randomised trials comparing fluid regimens with differing fluid balances between groups, and observational studies investigating the relationship between fluid balance and clinical outcomes.

Results

Forty-nine studies met the inclusion criteria. Marked clinical heterogeneity was evident. In a meta-analysis of 11 randomised trials (2051 patients) using a random-effects model, we found no significant difference in mortality with conservative or deresuscitative strategies compared with a liberal strategy or usual care [pooled risk ratio (RR) 0.92, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.82–1.02, I2 = 0 %]. A conservative or deresuscitative strategy resulted in increased ventilator-free days (mean difference 1.82 days, 95 % CI 0.53–3.10, I2 = 9 %) and reduced length of ICU stay (mean difference −1.88 days, 95 % CI −0.12 to −3.64, I2 = 75 %) compared with a liberal strategy or standard care.

Conclusions

In adults and children with ARDS, sepsis or SIRS, a conservative or deresuscitative fluid strategy results in an increased number of ventilator-free days and a decreased length of ICU stay compared with a liberal strategy or standard care. The effect on mortality remains uncertain. Large randomised trials are needed to determine optimal fluid strategies in critical illness.