Hierarchical modeling gave plausible estimates of associations between metabolic syndrome and components of antiretroviral therapy.

OBJECTIVE: Hierarchical modeling has been proposed as a solution to the multiple exposure problem. We estimate associations between metabolic syndrome and different components of antiretroviral therapy using both conventional and hierarchical models. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We use discrete time survival analysis to estimate the association between metabolic syndrome and cumulative exposure to 16 antiretrovirals from four drug classes. We fit a hierarchical model where the drug class provides a prior model of the association between metabolic syndrome and exposure to each antiretroviral. RESULTS: One thousand two hundred and eighteen patients were followed for a median of 27 months, with 242 cases of metabolic syndrome (20%) at a rate of 7.5 cases per 100 patient years. Metabolic syndrome was more likely to develop in patients exposed to stavudine, but was less likely to develop in those exposed to atazanavir. The estimate for exposure to atazanavir increased from hazard ratio of 0.06 per 6 months' use in the conventional model to 0.37 in the hierarchical model (or from 0.57 to 0.81 when using spline-based covariate adjustment). CONCLUSION: These results are consistent with trials that show the disadvantage of stavudine and advantage of atazanavir relative to other drugs in their respective classes. The hierarchical model gave more plausible results than the equivalent conventional model.

Robust parametric indirect estimates of the expected cost of a hospital stay with covariates and censored data.

We consider the problem of estimating the mean hospital cost of stays of a class of patients (e.g., a diagnosis-related group) as a function of patient characteristics. The statistical analysis is complicated by the asymmetry of the cost distribution, the possibility of censoring on the cost variable, and the occurrence of outliers. These problems have often been treated separately in the literature, and a method offering a joint solution to all of them is still missing. Indirect procedures have been proposed, combining an estimate of the duration distribution with an estimate of the conditional cost for a given duration. We propose a parametric version of this approach, allowing for asymmetry and censoring in the cost distribution and providing a mean cost estimator that is robust in the presence of extreme values. In addition, the new method takes covariate information into account.

Population receptive field estimates of human auditory cortex.

Here we describe a method for measuring tonotopic maps and estimating bandwidth for voxels in human primary auditory cortex (PAC) using a modification of the population Receptive Field (pRF) model, developed for retinotopic mapping in visual cortex by Dumoulin and Wandell (2008). The pRF method reliably estimates tonotopic maps in the presence of acoustic scanner noise, and has two advantages over phase-encoding techniques. First, the stimulus design is flexible and need not be a frequency progression, thereby reducing biases due to habituation, expectation, and estimation artifacts, as well as reducing the effects of spatio-temporal BOLD nonlinearities. Second, the pRF method can provide estimates of bandwidth as a function of frequency. We find that bandwidth estimates are narrower for voxels within the PAC than in surrounding auditory responsive regions (non-PAC).

Optimal use of SSR markers for varietal identification of upland cotton

Abstract: The objective of this work was to identify polymorphic simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers for varietal identification of cotton and evaluation of the genetic distance among the varieties. Initially, 92 SSR markers were genotyped in 20 Brazilian cotton cultivars. Of this total, 38 loci were polymorphic, two of which were amplified by one primer pair; the mean number of alleles per locus was 2.2. The values of polymorphic information content (PIC) and discrimination power (DP) were, on average, 0.374 and 0.433, respectively. The mean genetic distance was 0.397 (minimum of 0.092 and maximum of 0.641). A panel of 96 varieties originating from different regions of the world was assessed by 21 polymorphic loci derived from 17 selected primer pairs. Among these varieties, the mean genetic distance was 0.387 (minimum of 0 and maximum of 0.786). The dendrograms generated by the unweighted pair group method with arithmetic average (UPGMA) did not reflect the regions of Brazil (20 genotypes) or around the world (96 genotypes), where the varieties or lines were selected. Bootstrap resampling shows that genotype identification is viable with 19 loci. The polymorphic markers evaluated are useful to perform varietal identification in a large panel of cotton varieties and may be applied in studies of the species diversity.

Cross-scale analysis of the region effect on vascular plant species diversity in southern and northern European mountain ranges.

Background: The divergent glacial histories of southern and northern Europe affect present-day species diversity at coarse-grained scales in these two regions, but do these effects also penetrate to the more fine-grained scales of local communities?Methodology/Principal Findings: We carried out a cross-scale analysis to address this question for vascular plants in two mountain regions, the Alps in southern Europe and the Scandes in northern Europe, using environmentally paired vegetation plots in the two regions (n = 403 in each region) to quantify four diversity components: (i) total number of species occurring in a region (total gamma-diversity), (ii) number of species that could occur in a target plot after environmental filtering (habitat-specific gamma-diversity), (iii) pair-wise species compositional turnover between plots (plot-to-plot beta-diversity) and (iv) number of species present per plot (plot gamma-diversity). We found strong region effects on total gamma-diversity, habitat-specific gamma-diversity and plot-to-plot beta-diversity, with a greater diversity in the Alps even towards distances smaller than 50 m between plots. In contrast, there was a slightly greater plot alpha-diversity in the Scandes, but with a tendency towards contrasting region effects on high and low soil-acidity plots.Conclusions/Significance: We conclude that there are strong regional differences between coarse-grained (landscape- to regional-scale) diversity components of the flora in the Alps and the Scandes mountain ranges,but that these differences do not necessarily penetrate to the finest-grained (plot-scale) diversity component, at least not on acidic soils. Because different processes can lead to a similar pattern, we discuss the consistency of our results with Quaternary history and other divergent features between the two regions such as habitat connectivity, selection for vagility and environmental differences not accounted for in our analyses

Effect of selective recording on estimates of heritability

En este trabajo se analiza el efecto de la selección de datos sobre las estimaciones de heredabilidad. Se estimó el valor de heredabilidad del tamaño de camada en una población porcina en la que los datos correspondientes a las cerdas más viejas eran una muestra seleccionada. Las estimaciones se obtuvieron usando distintos conjuntos de datos derivados de toda la información disponible. Esos conjunto de datos se compararon evaluando su capacidad predictiva. Se vio que las estimaciones de heredabilidad obtenidas utilizando todos los datos disponibles correspondían a valores infraestimados. También se simuló un carácter materno y se generó un conjunto de datos seleccionados eliminando aquellos correspondientes a las hembras sin padres conocidos. Distintos modelos, habitualmente empleados cuando no existe selección de registros, se consideraron para estimar el valor de heredabilidad. Los resultados mostraron que ninguno de esos modelos ofrecía estimaciones insesgadas. Sólo los modelos que tenían en cuenta el efecto de la selección sobre la media residual y la media y varianza genéticas ofrecían estimaciones poco sesgadas. Sin embargo, para poder aplicarlos se debe conocer la selección realizada. El problema de la selección de datos es difícil de abordar cuando se desconoce cual es el proceso de selección que se ha realizado en una población.

Réhabilitation améliorée après chirurgie--L'ere de la prise en charge optimale du patient chirurgical [Enhanced Recovery After Surgery--optimal management of the surgical patient].

Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) is a multimodal, standardized and evidence-based perioperative care pathway. With ERAS, postoperative complications are significantly lowered, and, as a secondary effect, length of hospital stay and health cost are reduced. The patient recovers better and faster allowing to reduce in addition the workload of healthcare providers. Despite the hospital discharge occurs sooner, there is no increased charge of the outpatient care. ERAS can be safely applied to any patient by a tailored approach. The general practitioner plays an essential role in ERAS by assuring the continuity of the information and the follow-up of the patient.

Use of GRADE for assessment of evidence about prognosis : rating confidence in estimates of event rates in broad categories of patients.

Main concepts : The Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach defines quality of evidence as confidence in effect estimates; this conceptualization can readily be applied to bodies of evidence estimating the risk of future of events (that is, prognosis) in broadly defined populations In the field of prognosis, a body of observational evidence (including single arms of randomized controlled trials) begins as high quality evidence. The five domains GRADE considers in rating down confidence in estimates of treatment effect-that is, risk of bias, imprecision, inconsistency, indirectness, and publication bias-as well as the GRADE criteria for rating up quality, also apply to estimates of the risk of future of events from a body of prognostic studies Applying these concepts to systematic reviews of prognostic studies provides a ful approach to determine confidence in estimates of overall prognosis in broad populations.

Robust Estimates of the Negative Binomial Model

We consider robust parametric procedures for univariate discrete distributions, focusing on the negative binomial model. The procedures are based on three steps: ?First, a very robust, but possibly inefficient, estimate of the model parameters is computed. ?Second, this initial model is used to identify outliers, which are then removed from the sample. ?Third, a corrected maximum likelihood estimator is computed with the remaining observations. The final estimate inherits the breakdown point (bdp) of the initial one and its efficiency can be significantly higher. Analogous procedures were proposed in [1], [2], [5] for the continuous case. A comparison of the asymptotic bias of various estimates under point contamination points out the minimum Neyman's chi-squared disparity estimate as a good choice for the initial step. Various minimum disparity estimators were explored by Lindsay [4], who showed that the minimum Neyman's chi-squared estimate has a 50% bdp under point contamination; in addition, it is asymptotically fully efficient at the model. However, the finite sample efficiency of this estimate under the uncontaminated negative binomial model is usually much lower than 100% and the bias can be strong. We show that its performance can then be greatly improved using the three step procedure outlined above. In addition, we compare the final estimate with the procedure described in

Deep GMRT radio observations and a multi-wavelength study of the region around HESS J1858+020

Context. There are a number of very high energy sources in the Galaxy that remain unidentified. Multi-wavelength and variability studies, and catalogue searches, are powerful tools to identify the physical counterpart, given the uncertainty in the source location and extension. Aims. This work carries out a thorough multi-wavelength study of the unidentified, very high energy source HESS J1858+020 and its environs. Methods. We have performed Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope observations at 610 MHz and 1.4 GHz to obtain a deep, low-frequency radio image of the region surrounding HESS J1858+020. We analysed archival radio, infrared, and X-ray data as well. This observational information, combined with molecular data, catalogue sources, and a nearby Fermi gamma-ray detection of unidentified origin, are combined to explore possible counterparts to the very high energy source. Results. We provide with a deep radio image of a supernova remnant that might be related to the GeV and TeV emission in the region. We confirm the presence of an H ii region next to the supernova remnant and coincident with molecular emission. A potential region of star formation is also identified. We identify several radio and X-ray sources in the surroundings. Some of these sources are known planetary nebulae, whereas others may be non-thermal extended emitters and embedded young stellar objects. Three old, background Galactic pulsars also neighbour HESS J1858+020 along the line of sight. Conclusions. The region surrounding HESS J1858+020 is rich in molecular structures and non-thermal objects that may potentially be linked to this unidentified very high energy source. In particular, a supernova remnant interacting with nearby molecular clouds may be a good candidate, but a star forming region, or a non-thermal radio source of yet unclear nature, may also be behind the gamma-ray source. The neighbouring pulsars, despite being old and distant, cannot be discarded as candidates. Further observational studies are needed, however, to narrow the search for a counterpart to the HESS source.

A measure of stability as a criterion for the verification and analysis of simulation models

The aim of this study is to define a new statistic, PVL, based on the relative distance between the likelihood associated with the simulation replications and the likelihood of the conceptual model. Our results coming from several simulation experiments of a clinical trial show that the PVL statistic range can be a good measure of stability to establish when a computational model verifies the underlying conceptual model. PVL improves also the analysis of simulation replications because only one statistic is associated with all the simulation replications. As well it presents several verification scenarios, obtained by altering the simulation model, that show the usefulness of PVL. Further simulation experiments suggest that a 0 to 20 % range may define adequate limits for the verification problem, if considered from the viewpoint of an equivalence test.

Life span and reproductive cost explain interspecific variation in the optimal onset of reproduction.

Fitness can be profoundly influenced by the age at first reproduction (AFR), but to date the AFR-fitness relationship only has been investigated intraspecifically. Here, we investigated the relationship between AFR and average lifetime reproductive success (LRS) across 34 bird species. We assessed differences in the deviation of the Optimal AFR (i.e., the species-specific AFR associated with the highest LRS) from the age at sexual maturity, considering potential effects of life history as well as social and ecological factors. Most individuals adopted the species-specific Optimal AFR and both the mean and Optimal AFR of species correlated positively with life span. Interspecific deviations of the Optimal AFR were associated with indices reflecting a change in LRS or survival as a function of AFR: a delayed AFR was beneficial in species where early AFR was associated with a decrease in subsequent survival or reproductive output. Overall, our results suggest that a delayed onset of reproduction beyond maturity is an optimal strategy explained by a long life span and costs of early reproduction. By providing the first empirical confirmations of key predictions of life-history theory across species, this study contributes to a better understanding of life-history evolution.

Relationships and estimates of longitudinal growth stress in Eucalyptus dunnii at different ages

The objective of this study was to obtain estimates of longitudinal growth stresses in standing trees of the Eucalyptus dunnii Maiden at eight, thirteen, fifteen and nineteen years of age and to determine their relationships with wood characteristics. The longitudinal growth stresses were indirectly measured by the "CIRAD-Forêt" method and estimated from both the dynamic modulus of elasticity and the modulus of elasticity in tension parallel to the grain. The longitudinal residual strain (LRS) and the estimates of the longitudinal growth stresses tended to increase with the age of the material. The LRS correlated positively and significantly with all the growth stresses estimates. The largestes magnitudes were at 13, 15 and 19 years of age. The basic density presented high, positive and significant correlations with the dynamic modulus of elasticity, estimated in the longitudinal direction, for wood saturated and at 12% moisture content, for all the ages assessed. All the growth stresses estimates presented high, positive and significant correlations between themselves.

Optimal trading of wind power in the short term market

The energy reform, which is happening all over the world, is caused by the common concern of the future of the humankind in our shared planet. In order to keep the effects of the global warming inside of a certain limit, the use of fossil fuels must be reduced. The marginal costs of the renewable sources, RES are quite high, since they are new technology. In order to induce the implementation of RES to the power grid and lower the marginal costs, subsidies were developed in order to make the use of RES more profitable. From the RES perspective the current market is developed to favor conventional generation, which mainly uses fossil fuels. Intermittent generation, like wind power, is penalized in the electricity market since it is intermittent and thus diffi-cult to control. Therefore, the need of regulation and thus the regulation costs to the producer differ, depending on what kind of generation market participant owns. In this thesis it is studied if there is a way for market participant, who has wind power to use the special characteristics of electricity market Nord Pool and thus reach the gap between conventional generation and the intermittent generation only by placing bids to the market. Thus, an optimal bid is introduced, which purpose is to minimize the regulation costs and thus lower the marginal costs of wind power. In order to make real life simulations in Nord Pool, a wind power forecast model was created. The simulations were done in years 2009 and 2010 by using a real wind power data provided by Hyötytuuli, market data from Nord Pool and wind forecast data provided by Finnish Meteorological Institute. The optimal bid needs probability intervals and therefore the methodology to create probability distributions is introduced in this thesis. In the end of the thesis it is shown that the optimal bidding improves the position of wind power producer in the electricity market.