European plant phenology and climate as seen in a 20-year AVHRR land-surface parameter dataset

Vegetation distribution and state have been measured since 1981 by the AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) instrument through satellite remote sensing. In this study a correction method is applied to the Pathfinder NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data to create a continuous European vegetation phenology dataset of a 10-day temporal and 0.1° spatial resolution; additionally, land surface parameters for use in biosphere–atmosphere modelling are derived. The analysis of time-series from this dataset reveals, for the years 1982–2001, strong seasonal and interannual variability in European land surface vegetation state. Phenological metrics indicate a late and short growing season for the years 1985–1987, in addition to early and prolonged activity in the years 1989, 1990, 1994 and 1995. These variations are in close agreement with findings from phenological measurements at the surface; spring phenology is also shown to correlate particularly well with anomalies in winter temperature and winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Nevertheless, phenological metrics, which display considerable regional differences, could only be determined for vegetation with a seasonal behaviour. Trends in the phenological phases reveal a general shift to earlier (−0.54 days year−1) and prolonged (0.96 days year−1) growing periods which are statistically significant, especially for central Europe.

Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions

Accurate decadal climate predictions could be used to inform adaptation actions to a changing climate. The skill of such predictions from initialised dynamical global climate models (GCMs) may be assessed by comparing with predictions from statistical models which are based solely on historical observations. This paper presents two benchmark statistical models for predicting both the radiatively forced trend and internal variability of annual mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a decadal timescale based on the gridded observation data set HadISST. For both statistical models, the trend related to radiative forcing is modelled using a linear regression of SST time series at each grid box on the time series of equivalent global mean atmospheric CO2 concentration. The residual internal variability is then modelled by (1) a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) and (2) a constructed analogue model (CA). From the verification of 46 retrospective forecasts with start years from 1960 to 2005, the correlation coefficient for anomaly forecasts using trend with AR1 is greater than 0.7 over parts of extra-tropical North Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. This is primarily related to the prediction of the forced trend. More importantly, both CA and AR1 give skillful predictions of the internal variability of SSTs in the subpolar gyre region over the far North Atlantic for lead time of 2 to 5 years, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.5. For the subpolar gyre and parts of the South Atlantic, CA is superior to AR1 for lead time of 6 to 9 years. These statistical forecasts are also compared with ensemble mean retrospective forecasts by DePreSys, an initialised GCM. DePreSys is found to outperform the statistical models over large parts of North Atlantic for lead times of 2 to 5 years and 6 to 9 years, however trend with AR1 is generally superior to DePreSys in the North Atlantic Current region, while trend with CA is superior to DePreSys in parts of South Atlantic for lead time of 6 to 9 years. These findings encourage further development of benchmark statistical decadal prediction models, and methods to combine different predictions.

Evaluation and management of the impact of land use change on the nitrogen and phosphorus load delivered to surface waters: the export coefficient modelling approach

A manageable, relatively inexpensive model was constructed to predict the loss of nitrogen and phosphorus from a complex catchment to its drainage system. The model used an export coefficient approach, calculating the total nitrogen (N) and total phosphorus (P) load delivered annually to a water body as the sum of the individual loads exported from each nutrient source in its catchment. The export coefficient modelling approach permits scaling up from plot-scale experiments to the catchment scale, allowing application of findings from field experimental studies at a suitable scale for catchment management. The catchment of the River Windrush, a tributary of the River Thames, UK, was selected as the initial study site. The Windrush model predicted nitrogen and phosphorus loading within 2% of observed total nitrogen load and 0.5% of observed total phosphorus load in 1989. The export coefficient modelling approach was then validated by application in a second research basin, the catchment of Slapton Ley, south Devon, which has markedly different catchment hydrology and land use. The Slapton model was calibrated within 2% of observed total nitrogen load and 2.5% of observed total phosphorus load in 1986. Both models proved sensitive to the impact of temporal changes in land use and management on water quality in both catchments, and were therefore used to evaluate the potential impact of proposed pollution control strategies on the nutrient loading delivered to the River Windrush and Slapton Ley

Synergetic effect of carbon nanopore size and surface oxidation on CO2 capture from CO2/CH4 mixtures

We have studied the synergetic effect of confinement (carbon nanopore size) and surface chemistry (the number of carbonyl groups) on CO2 capture from its mixtures with CH4 at typical operating conditions for industrial adsorptive separation (298 K and compressed CO2CH4 mixtures). Although both confinement and surface oxidation have an impact on the efficiency of CO2/CH4 adsorptive separation at thermodynamics equilibrium, we show that surface functionalization is the most important factor in designing an efficient adsorbent for CO2 capture. Systematic Monte Carlo simulations revealed that adsorption of CH4 either pure or mixed with CO2 on oxidized nanoporous carbons is only slightly increased by the presence of functional groups (surface dipoles). In contrast, adsorption of CO2 is very sensitive to the number of carbonyl groups, which can be examined by a strong electric quadrupolar moment of CO2. Interestingly, the adsorbed amount of CH4 is strongly affected by the presence of the co-adsorbed CO2. In contrast, the CO2 uptake does not depend on the molar ratio of CH4 in the bulk mixture. The optimal carbonaceous porous adsorbent used for CO2 capture near ambient conditions should consist of narrow carbon nanopores with oxidized pore walls. Furthermore, the equilibrium separation factor was the greatest for CO2/CH4 mixtures with a low CO2 concentration. The maximum equilibrium separation factor of CO2 over CH4 of ∼18–20 is theoretically predicted for strongly oxidized nanoporous carbons. Our findings call for a review of the standard uncharged model of carbonaceous materials used for the modeling of the adsorption separation processes of gas mixtures containing CO2 (and other molecules with strong electric quadrupolar moment or dipole moment).

Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: the role of ensemble dispersion

Useful probabilistic climate forecasts on decadal timescales should be reliable (i.e. forecast probabilities match the observed relative frequencies) but this is seldom examined. This paper assesses a necessary condition for reliability, that the ratio of ensemble spread to forecast error being close to one, for seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature retrospective forecasts from the Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys). Factors which may affect reliability are diagnosed by comparing this spread-error ratio for an initial condition ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles for initialized and uninitialized predictions. At lead times less than 2 years, the initialized ensembles tend to be under-dispersed, and hence produce overconfident and hence unreliable forecasts. For longer lead times, all three ensembles are predominantly over-dispersed. Such over-dispersion is primarily related to excessive inter-annual variability in the climate model. These findings highlight the need to carefully evaluate simulated variability in seasonal and decadal prediction systems.Useful probabilistic climate forecasts on decadal timescales should be reliable (i.e. forecast probabilities match the observed relative frequencies) but this is seldom examined. This paper assesses a necessary condition for reliability, that the ratio of ensemble spread to forecast error being close to one, for seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature retrospective forecasts from the Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys). Factors which may affect reliability are diagnosed by comparing this spread-error ratio for an initial condition ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles for initialized and uninitialized predictions. At lead times less than 2 years, the initialized ensembles tend to be under-dispersed, and hence produce overconfident and hence unreliable forecasts. For longer lead times, all three ensembles are predominantly over-dispersed. Such over-dispersion is primarily related to excessive inter-annual variability in the climate model. These findings highlight the need to carefully evaluate simulated variability in seasonal and decadal prediction systems.

Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: the role of ensemble dispersion

Useful probabilistic climate forecasts on decadal timescales should be reliable (i.e. forecast probabilities match the observed relative frequencies) but this is seldom examined. This paper assesses a necessary condition for reliability, that the ratio of ensemble spread to forecast error being close to one, for seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature retrospective forecasts from the Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys). Factors which may affect reliability are diagnosed by comparing this spread-error ratio for an initial condition ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles for initialized and uninitialized predictions. At lead times less than 2 years, the initialized ensembles tend to be under-dispersed, and hence produce overconfident and hence unreliable forecasts. For longer lead times, all three ensembles are predominantly over-dispersed. Such over-dispersion is primarily related to excessive inter-annual variability in the climate model. These findings highlight the need to carefully evaluate simulated variability in seasonal and decadal prediction systems.Useful probabilistic climate forecasts on decadal timescales should be reliable (i.e. forecast probabilities match the observed relative frequencies) but this is seldom examined. This paper assesses a necessary condition for reliability, that the ratio of ensemble spread to forecast error being close to one, for seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature retrospective forecasts from the Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys). Factors which may affect reliability are diagnosed by comparing this spread-error ratio for an initial condition ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles for initialized and uninitialized predictions. At lead times less than 2 years, the initialized ensembles tend to be under-dispersed, and hence produce overconfident and hence unreliable forecasts. For longer lead times, all three ensembles are predominantly over-dispersed. Such over-dispersion is primarily related to excessive inter-annual variability in the climate model. These findings highlight the need to carefully evaluate simulated variability in seasonal and decadal prediction systems.

The neurological underpinnings of cluttering: some initial findings

Background Cluttering is a fluency disorder characterised by overly rapid or jerky speech patterns that compromise intelligibility. The neural correlates of cluttering are unknown but theoretical accounts implicate the basal ganglia and medial prefrontal cortex. Dysfunction in these brain areas would be consistent with difficulties in selection and control of speech motor programs that are characteristic of speech disfluencies in cluttering. There is a surprising lack of investigation into this disorder using modern imaging techniques. Here, we used functional MRI to investigate the neural correlates of cluttering. Method We scanned 17 adults who clutter and 17 normally fluent control speakers matched for age and sex. Brain activity was recorded using sparse-sampling functional MRI while participants viewed scenes and either (i) produced overt speech describing the scene or (ii) read out loud a sentence provided that described the scene. Speech was recorded and analysed off line. Differences in brain activity for each condition compared to a silent resting baseline and between conditions were analysed for each group separately (cluster-forming threshold Z > 3.1, extent p < 0.05, corrected) and then these differences were further compared between the two groups (voxel threshold p < 0.01, extent > 30 voxels, uncorrected). Results In both conditions, the patterns of activation in adults who clutter and control speakers were strikingly similar, particularly at the cortical level. Direct group comparisons revealed greater activity in adults who clutter compared to control speakers in the lateral premotor cortex bilaterally and, as predicted, on the medial surface (pre-supplementary motor area). Subcortically, adults who clutter showed greater activity than control speakers in the basal ganglia. Specifically, the caudate nucleus and putamen were overactive in adults who clutter for the comparison of picture description with sentence reading. In addition, adults who clutter had reduced activity relative to control speakers in the lateral anterior cerebellum bilaterally. Eleven of the 17 adults who clutter also stuttered. This comorbid diagnosis of stuttering was found to contribute to the abnormal overactivity seen in the group of adults who clutter in the right ventral premotor cortex and right anterior cingulate cortex. In the remaining areas of abnormal activity seen in adults who clutter compared to controls, the subgroup who clutter and stutter did not differ from the subgroup who clutter but do not stutter. Conclusions Our findings were in good agreement with theoretical predictions regarding the neural correlates of cluttering. We found evidence for abnormal function in the basal ganglia and their cortical output target, the medial prefrontal cortex. The findings are discussed in relation to models of cluttering that point to problems with motor control of speech.

Evidence of a topographic signal in surface soil moisture derived from ENVISAT ASAR wide swath data

The susceptibility of a catchment to flooding is affected by its soil moisture prior to an extreme rainfall event. While soil moisture is routinely observed by satellite instruments, results from previous work on the assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture into hydrologic models have been mixed. This may have been due in part to the low spatial resolution of the observations used. In this study, the remote sensing aspects of a project attempting to improve flow predictions from a distributed hydrologic model by assimilating soil moisture measurements are described. Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) Wide Swath data were used to measure soil moisture as, unlike low resolution microwave data, they have sufficient resolution to allow soil moisture variations due to local topography to be detected, which may help to take into account the spatial heterogeneity of hydrological processes. Surface soil moisture content (SSMC) was measured over the catchments of the Severn and Avon rivers in the South West UK. To reduce the influence of vegetation, measurements were made only over homogeneous pixels of improved grassland determined from a land cover map. Radar backscatter was corrected for terrain variations and normalized to a common incidence angle. SSMC was calculated using change detection. To search for evidence of a topographic signal, the mean SSMC from improved grassland pixels on low slopes near rivers was compared to that on higher slopes. When the mean SSMC on low slopes was 30–90%, the higher slopes were slightly drier than the low slopes. The effect was reversed for lower SSMC values. It was also more pronounced during a drying event. These findings contribute to the scant information in the literature on the use of high resolution SAR soil moisture measurement to improve hydrologic models.

Modeling plant transpiration under limited soil water: comparison of different plant and soil hydraulic parameterizations and preliminary implications for their use in land surface models

Accurate estimates of how soil water stress affects plant transpiration are crucial for reliable land surface model (LSM) predictions. Current LSMs generally use a water stress factor, β, dependent on soil moisture content, θ, that ranges linearly between β = 1 for unstressed vegetation and β = 0 when wilting point is reached. This paper explores the feasibility of replacing the current approach with equations that use soil water potential as their independent variable, or with a set of equations that involve hydraulic and chemical signaling, thereby ensuring feedbacks between the entire soil–root–xylem–leaf system. A comparison with the original linear θ-based water stress parameterization, and with its improved curvi-linear version, was conducted. Assessment of model suitability was focused on their ability to simulate the correct (as derived from experimental data) curve shape of relative transpiration versus fraction of transpirable soil water. We used model sensitivity analyses under progressive soil drying conditions, employing two commonly used approaches to calculate water retention and hydraulic conductivity curves. Furthermore, for each of these hydraulic parameterizations we used two different parameter sets, for 3 soil texture types; a total of 12 soil hydraulic permutations. Results showed that the resulting transpiration reduction functions (TRFs) varied considerably among the models. The fact that soil hydraulic conductivity played a major role in the model that involved hydraulic and chemical signaling led to unrealistic values of β, and hence TRF, for many soil hydraulic parameter sets. However, this model is much better equipped to simulate the behavior of different plant species. Based on these findings, we only recommend implementation of this approach into LSMs if great care with choice of soil hydraulic parameters is taken

REACTIVE OXYGEN SPECIES AND THE STRUCTURAL REMODELING OF THE VISUAL SYSTEM AFTER OCULAR ENUCLEATION

Redox processes associated with controlled generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) by NADPH oxidase (Nox) add an essential level of regulation to signaling pathways underlying physiological processes. We evaluated the ROS generation in the main visual relays of the mammalian brain, namely the superior colliculus (SC) and the dorsal lateral geniculate nucleus (DLG), after ocular enucleation in adult rats. Dihydroethidium (DHE) oxidation revealed increased ROS generation in SC and DLG between 1 and 30 days postlesion. ROS generation was decreased by the Nox inhibitors diphenyleneiodonium chloride (DPI) and apocynin. Real-time PCR results revealed that Nox 2 was upregulated in both retinorecipient structures after deafferentation, whereas Nox 1 and Nox 4 were upregulated only in the SC. To evaluate the role of ROS in structural remodeling after the lesions, apocynin was given to enucleated rats and immunohistochemistry was conducted for markers of neuronal remodeling into SC and DLG. Immunohistochemical data showed that ocular enucleation produces an increase of neurofilament and microtubule-associated protein-2 immunostaining in both SC and DLG, which was markedly attenuated by apocynin treatment. Taken together, the findings of the present study suggest a novel role for Nox-induced ROS signaling in mediating neuronal remodeling in visual areas after ocular enucleation. (C) 2010 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of carbon impurities on the Si(001)-c(4 x 4) surface reconstruction: Theoretical calculations

In this work we employ the state-of-the-art pseudopotential method, within a generalized gradient approximation to the density functional theory, combined with a recently developed method for the calculation of HREELS spectra to study a series of different proposed models for carbon incorporation on the silicon (001) surface. A fully discussion on the geometry, energetics and specially the comparison between experimental and theoretical STM images and electron energy loss spectra indicate that the Si(100)-c(4 x 4) is probably induced by Si-C surface dinners, in agreement with recent experimental findings. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ultrasonographic and echobiometric findings in the eyes of Saanen goats of different ages

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Environmental temperature and cloacal and surface temperatures of broiler chicks in first week post-hatch

Adequate environmental temperature during the brooding period is very important to future broiler performance. Thus, the objective of this study was to investigate the extent to which environmental temperature affects the body weight and cloacal and surface (back, head, wing, and shank) temperatures. The study also investigated the sensible heat loss by radiation of broiler chicks reared at three environmental temperatures (35, 25, and 20 degrees C) up to 7 days of life. The results showed that chicks raised at low environmental temperature (20 degrees C) had lower body weight at 7 days of age. Birds kept at 20 degrees C also had significantly lower cloacal and surface temperatures than did other birds. The most marked difference was seen in the shanks. These findings revealed that body weight declined in chicks reared at 20 degrees C, and radiant heat loss (W) was nine times higher than for the birds kept at 35 degrees C at 7 days of age.

Effect of breeder age on eggshell thickness, surface temperature, hatchability and chick weigh

Two experiments were carried out to study the effect of breeder age on incubation parameters (hatchability, eggshell thickness, egg surface temperature and chick weight). In Exp. 1, fertile eggs (30- and 60-wk-old breeders) were incubated at three different temperatures (36.8, 37.8 and 38.8 ºC). Eggshell surface temperature was measured by attaching a thermocouple to the shell and data were collected in a datalogger every ten minutes. This study was conducted according to a 3 x 2 factorial design (three temperatures and two breeder ages). Data revealed that eggshell surface temperature changed according to incubation temperature, with the main increase occurring between 10 and 13 days of incubation, and that the maximum increase in eggshell surface temperature was not higher than +0.6 ºC, irrespective of incubator temperature. The incubator temperature affected total incubation period and hatchability (%) at 38.8 ºC, independent of breeder age. Heavier eggs resulted in heavier chicks, irrespective of incubator temperature. In Exp 2, the eggs (30- and 60-wk-old breeders) were incubated at 37.8 ºC and eggs characteristics (weight, specific gravity, total hatchability and chicks weight) were evaluated according to a randomized experimental design. The data showed that breeder age affected eggshell thickness and chick weight (heavier eggs resulted in heavier chicks), but not specific gravity, eggshell surface temperature or hatchability. The findings of this study revealed that hatchability can be influenced by incubation temperature, but not by the breeder age. Breeder age can affect eggshell thickness, egg weight and eggshell surface temperature, but not specific gravity.

Orbital Implants Insertion to Improve Ocular Prostheses Motility

The objectives of this study were, through a literature review, to point the differences between orbital implants and their advantages and disadvantages, to evaluate prosthesis motility after orbital implants are inserted, and to point the implant wrapping current risks. Sixty-seven articles were reviewed. Enucleation implants can be autoplastics or alloplastics and porous (including natural and synthetic hydroxyapatite [HA]) or nonporous (silicone). Hydroxyapatite is the most related in the literature, but it has disadvantages, too, that is, all orbital implants must be wrapped. Exposure of the porous orbital implant can be repaired using different materials, which include homologous tissue, as well as autogenous graft, xenograft, and synthetic material mesh. The most used materials are HA and porous polyethylene orbital implant. The HA implant is expensive and possibly subject corals to damage, different from porous polyethylene orbital implants. Porous implants show the best prosthesis motility and a minimum rate of implants extrusion. Implant wraps can facilitate smoother entry of the implant into the orbit and allow reattachment of extraocular muscles. They also serve as a barrier between the overlying soft tissue and the rough surface of the implant, protecting implants from exposure or erosion.