A comparison of random sequence reads versus 16S rDNA sequences for estimating the biodiversity of a metagenomic library

The construction of metagenomic libraries has permitted the study of microorganisms resistant to isolation and the analysis of 16S rDNA sequences has been used for over two decades to examine bacterial biodiversity. Here, we show that the analysis of random sequence reads (RSRs) instead of 16S is a suitable shortcut to estimate the biodiversity of a bacterial community from metagenomic libraries. We generated 10,010 RSRs from a metagenomic library of microorganisms found in human faecal samples. Then searched them using the program BLASTN against a prokaryotic sequence database to assign a taxon to each RSR. The results were compared with those obtained by screening and analysing the clones containing 16S rDNA sequences in the whole library. We found that the biodiversity observed by RSR analysis is consistent with that obtained by 16S rDNA. We also show that RSRs are suitable to compare the biodiversity between different metagenomic libraries. RSRs can thus provide a good estimate of the biodiversity of a metagenomic library and, as an alternative to 16S, this approach is both faster and cheaper.

Impact of antenna correlation on the capacity of multiantenna channels

This paper applies random matrix theory to obtain analytical characterizations of the capacity of correlated multiantenna channels. The analysis is not restricted to the popular separable correlation model, but rather it embraces a more general representation that subsumesmost of the channel models that have been treated in the literature. For arbitrary signal-to-noise ratios (SNR), the characterization is conducted in the regime of large numbers of antennas. For the low- and high-SNR regions, in turn, we uncover compact capacity expansions that are valid for arbitrary numbers of antennas and that shed insight on how antenna correlation impacts the tradeoffs between power, bandwidth and rate.

Multiple target tracking using random sets

This paper presents several algorithms for joint estimation of the target number and state in a time-varying scenario. Building on the results presented in [1], which considers estimation of the target number only, we assume that not only the target number, but also their state evolution must be estimated. In this context, we extend to this new scenario the Rao-Blackwellization procedure of [1] to compute Bayes recursions, thus defining reduced-complexity solutions for the multi-target set estimator. A performance assessmentis finally given both in terms of Circular Position Error Probability - aimed at evaluating the accuracy of the estimated track - and in terms of Cardinality Error Probability, aimed at evaluating the reliability of the target number estimates.

Increased numbers of circulating polyfunctional Th17 memory cells in patients with seronegative spondylarthritides

OBJECTIVE: A distinct subset of proinflammatory CD4+ T cells that produce interleukin-17 was recently identified. These cells are implicated in different autoimmune disease models, such as experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis and collagen-induced arthritis, but their involvement in human autoimmune disease has not yet been clearly established. The purpose of this study was to assess the frequency and functional properties of Th17 cells in healthy donors and in patients with different autoimmune diseases. METHODS: Peripheral blood was obtained from 10 psoriatic arthritis (PsA), 10 ankylosing spondylitis (AS), 10 rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and 5 vitiligo patients, as well as from 25 healthy donors. Synovial tissue samples from a separate group of patients were also evaluated (obtained as paraffin-embedded sections). Peripheral blood cells were analyzed by multiparameter flow cytometry and immunohistochemistry. Cytokine production was examined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and intracellular cytokine staining using specific monoclonal antibodies. Synovial tissue was examined for infiltrating T cells by immunohistochemical analysis. RESULTS: We found increased numbers of circulating Th17 cells in the peripheral blood of patients with seronegative spondylarthritides (PsA and AS), but not in patients with RA or vitiligo. In addition, Th17 cells from the spondylarthritis patients showed advanced differentiation and were polyfunctional in terms of T cell receptor-driven cytokine production. CONCLUSION: These observations suggest a role of Th17 cells in the pathogenesis of certain human autoimmune disorders, in particular the seronegative spondylarthritides.

Non-random fertilization in mice correlates with the MHC and something else

One evolutionary explanation for the success of sexual reproduction assumes that sex is an advantage in the coevolutionary arms race between pathogens and hosts. Accordingly, an important criterion in mate choice and maternal selection thereafter could be the allelic specificity at polymorphic loci involved in parasite-host interactions, e.g. the MHC (major histocompatibility complex). The MHC has been found to influence mate choice and selective abortions in mice and humans. However, it could also influence the fertilization process itself, i.e. (i) the oocyte's choice for the fertilizing sperm, and (ii) the outcome of the second meiotic division after the sperm has entered the egg. We tested both hypotheses in an in vitro fertilization experiment with two inbred mouse strains congenic for their MHC. The genotypes of the resulting blastocysts were determined by polymerase chain reaction. We found nonrandom MHC combinations in the blastocysts which may result from both possible choice mechanisms. The outcome changed significantly over time, indicating that a choice for MHC combinations during fertilization may be influenced by one or several external factors.

Prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers based on random breath tests in a roadside survey

Sobriety checkpoints are not usually randomly located by traffic authorities. As such, information provided by non-random alcohol tests cannot be used to infer the characteristics of the general driving population. In this paper a case study is presented in which the prevalence of alcohol-impaired driving is estimated for the general population of drivers. A stratified probabilistic sample was designed to represent vehicles circulating in non-urban areas of Catalonia (Spain), a region characterized by its complex transportation network and dense traffic around the metropolis of Barcelona. Random breath alcohol concentration tests were performed during spring 2012 on 7,596 drivers. The estimated prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers was 1.29%, which is roughly a third of the rate obtained in non-random tests. Higher rates were found on weekends (1.90% on Saturdays, 4.29% on Sundays) and especially at night. The rate is higher for men (1.45%) than for women (0.64%) and the percentage of positive outcomes shows an increasing pattern with age. In vehicles with two occupants, the proportion of alcohol-impaired drivers is estimated at 2.62%, but when the driver was alone the rate drops to 0.84%, which might reflect the socialization of drinking habits. The results are compared with outcomes in previous surveys, showing a decreasing trend in the prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers over time.

The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

A theory of optimal random crackdowns

An incentives based theory of policing is developed which can explain the phenomenon of random “crackdowns,” i.e., intermittent periods of high interdiction/surveillance. For a variety of police objective functions, random crackdowns can be part of the optimal monitoring strategy. We demonstrate support for implications of the crackdown theory using traffic data gathered by the Belgian Police Department and use the model to estimate the deterrence effectof additional resources spent on speeding interdiction.

On the closed-form approximation of short-time random strike options

In this paper we propose a general technique to develop first and second order closed-form approximation formulas for short-time options withrandom strikes. Our method is based on Malliavin calculus techniques andallows us to obtain simple closed-form approximation formulas dependingon the derivative operator. The numerical analysis shows that these formulas are extremely accurate and improve some previous approaches ontwo-assets and three-assets spread options as Kirk's formula or the decomposition mehod presented in Alòs, Eydeland and Laurence (2011).

Constant coefficient tests for random coefficient regression

Random coefficient regression models have been applied in differentfields and they constitute a unifying setup for many statisticalproblems. The nonparametric study of this model started with Beranand Hall (1992) and it has become a fruitful framework. In thispaper we propose and study statistics for testing a basic hypothesisconcerning this model: the constancy of coefficients. The asymptoticbehavior of the statistics is investigated and bootstrapapproximations are used in order to determine the critical values ofthe test statistics. A simulation study illustrates the performanceof the proposals.