Sitting on the fence: Swedish defence policy and the Baltic Sea region. OSW Point of View Number 33, April 2013

Sweden finds itself in the midst of the most heated debates about defence policy and the direction of military reforms since the end of the Cold War, as Stockholm faces the challenge of finding a new military security formula. From the Swedish point of view, the post-Cold War strategic timeout in Europe is coming to an end. The international environment is reverting to a situation in which the use of force among states is no longer an improbable scenario. Stockholm cannot rule out the emergence of crises or conflicts in Northern Europe in the future, which could directly or indirectly affect Sweden. In this context, the transformations of Sweden’s defence policy over the past twenty years have become a problem. Sweden has moved from neutrality, i.e. non-involvement on any side of an armed interstate conflict, to non-alignment, whereby it stays outside military alliances and freely shapes its policies during wartime. It has joined the European Union and co-operates closely with NATO on foreign missions. Its ability to defend its own territory, however, has diminished.

Norway and the Bear. Norwegian defence policy- lessons for the Baltic Sea region. OSW Point of View Number 38, January 2014

Norway is currently the only Western European state and ‘old’ NATO member that strongly relies on the traditional dimension of NATO's collective defence. It is also the only ally in Western Europe which perceives Russia as a threat to its military security, in the so-called High North. In order to successfully deal with the potential challenges and threats in the region, Norway has been pursuing a defence policy based on cooperation and deterrence. Cooperation means improving collaboration with Russia in cross-border relations, in the petroleum sector and in the military sphere. The deterrent measures include maintaining NATO’s credibility as a collective defence alliance; increasing military cooperation with the United States; building up Norway’s own military capabilities; and developing military cooperation across Northern Europe. The primary objective of Oslo’s defence policy is to minimise the likelihood of crises and conflicts emerging in the High North which could prove too ‘big’ for Norway but too ‘small’ for NATO.

A weak link? Germany in the Euro-Atlantic security system. OSW Point of View Number 47, January 2015

The political, military and economic parameters of German power influence the vision of the international order that Berlin favours. Politically, Germany is a regional power in the EU with considerable diplomatic potential. Economically, it is the world's third largest power with growing global trade and investment links. At the same time, Germany's military potential is limited and the German strategic culture makes the country sceptical about the use of military instruments. Berlin is thus essentially interested in maintaining peace and stability, both in Europe and globally, and in developing diplomatic mechanisms to manage regional and global crises and conflicts. The German preference for dialogue and compromise in conflict situations in the regional and global dimensions may increasingly pose a risk to maintaining the cohesion and credibility of NATO – both from the perspective of the USA and Germany’s allies from Central-Eastern and Northern Europe.

Historical sea ice of the Baltic Sea (1960/61-78/79)

The Baltic Sea is a seasonally ice-covered, marginal sea in central northern Europe. It is an essential waterway connecting highly industrialised countries. Because ship traffic is intermittently hindered by sea ice, the local weather services have been monitoring sea ice conditions for decades. In the present study we revisit a historical monitoring data set, covering the winters 1960/1961 to 1978/1979. This data set, dubbed Data Bank for Baltic Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperatures (BASIS) ice, is based on hand-drawn maps that were collected and then digitised in 1981 in a joint project of the Finnish Institute of Marine Research (today the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI)) and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI). BASIS ice was designed for storage on punch cards and all ice information is encoded by five digits. This makes the data hard to access. Here we present a post-processed product based on the original five-digit code. Specifically, we convert to standard ice quantities (including information on ice types), which we distribute in the current and free Network Common Data Format (NetCDF). Our post-processed data set will help to assess numerical ice models and provide easy-to-access unique historical reference material for sea ice in the Baltic Sea. In addition we provide statistics showcasing the data quality. The website http://www.baltic-ocean.org hosts the post-processed data and the conversion code.

(Table S1) Age determination of sediment cores of the Gulf of Alaska

Oxygen isotope data from planktonic and benthic foraminifera, on a high-resolution age model (44 14C dates spanning 17,400 years), document deglacial environmental change on the southeast Alaska margin (59°33.32'N, 144°9.21'W, 682 m water depth). Surface freshening (i.e., d18O reduction of 0.8 per mil) began at 16,650 ± 170 cal years B.P. during an interval of ice proximal sedimentation, likely due to freshwater input from melting glaciers. A sharp transition to laminated hemipelagic sediments constrains retreat of regional outlet glaciers onto land circa 14,790 ± 380 cal years B.P. Abrupt warming and/or freshening of the surface ocean (i.e., additional d18O reduction of 0.9 per mil) coincides with the Bølling Interstade of northern Europe and Greenland. Cooling and/or higher salinities returned during the Allerød interval, coincident with the Antarctic Cold Reversal, and continue until 11,740 ± 200 cal years B.P., when onset of warming coincides with the end of the Younger Dryas. An abrupt 1 per mil reduction in benthic d18O at 14,250 ± 290 cal years B.P. likely reflects a decrease in bottom water salinity driven by deep mixing of glacial meltwater, a regional megaflood event, or brine formation associated with sea ice. Two laminated opal-rich intervals record discrete episodes of high productivity during the last deglaciation. These events, precisely dated here at 14,790 ± 380 to 12,990 ± 190 cal years B.P. and 11,160 ± 130 to 10,750 ± 220 cal years B.P., likely correlate to similar features observed elsewhere on the margins of the North Pacific and are coeval with episodes of rapid sea level rise. Remobilization of iron from newly inundated continental shelves may have helped to fuel these episodes of elevated primary productivity and sedimentary anoxia.

Tracts relating to the corn trade and corn laws : including the second report ordered to be printed by the two houses of Parliament /

Goldsmiths'-Kress no. 25512.

Genetic variation and inference of demographic histories in non-model species

Both long-term environmental changes such as those driven by the glacial cycles and more recent anthropogenic impacts have had major effects on the past demography in wild organisms. Within species, these changes are reflected in the amount and distribution of neutral genetic variation. In this thesis, mitochondrial and microsatellite DNA was analysed to investigate how environmental and anthropogenic factors have affected genetic diversity and structure in four ecologically different animal species. Paper I describes the post-glacial recolonisation history of the speckled-wood butterfly (Pararge aegeria) in Northern Europe. A decrease in genetic diversity with latitude and a marked population structure were uncovered, consistent with a hypothesis of repeated founder events during the postglacial recolonisation. Moreover, Approximate Bayesian Computation analyses indicate that the univoltine populations in Scandinavia and Finland originate from recolonisations along two routes, one on each side of the Baltic. Paper II aimed to investigate how past sea-level rises affected the population history of the convict surgeonfish (Acanthurus triostegus) in the Indo-Pacific. Assessment of the species’ demographic history suggested a population expansion that occurred approximately at the end of the last glaciation. Moreover, the results demonstrated an overall lack of phylogeographic structure, probably due to the high dispersal rates associated with the species’ pelagic larval stage. Populations at the species’ eastern range margin were significantly differentiated from other populations, which likely is a consequence of their geographic isolation. In Paper III, we assessed the effect of human impact on the genetic variation of European moose (Alces alces) in Sweden. Genetic analyses revealed a spatial structure with two genetic clusters, one in northern and one in southern Sweden, which were separated by a narrow transition zone. Moreover, demographic inference suggested a recent population bottleneck. The inferred timing of this bottleneck coincided with a known reduction in population size in the 19th and early 20th century due to high hunting pressure. In Paper IV, we examined the effect of an indirect but well-described human impact, via environmental toxic chemicals (PCBs), on the genetic variation of Eurasian otters (Lutra lutra) in Sweden. Genetic clustering assignment revealed differentiation between otters in northern and southern Sweden, but also in the Stockholm region. ABC analyses indicated a decrease in effective population size in both northern and southern Sweden. Moreover, comparative analyses of historical and contemporary samples demonstrated a more severe decline in genetic diversity in southern Sweden compared to northern Sweden, in agreement with the levels of PCBs found.

Create, Establish, Maintain: Comparing Zones of Peace in the Nordic Area and the Southern Cone

In the wake of the Cold War, regional organizations have proliferated and are now a dominant theme in global politics. This study tests whether explanations for the Nordic peace can help to understand or construct other zones of peace in these increasingly important regional settings. With that in mind, this study compares the Nordic area of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden with the Southern Cone region–here defined as Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay–and both are treated as regional, subsystemic zones of peace. Its significance lies in analysis of two developmentally disparate regions not yet compared in zones of peace literature. Using structured, focused comparison, this study is guided by fundamental questions about each region that assess the relationship between explanations for regional peace and their respective historical records. Understanding the conditions that permit the endurance of peace in today’s global context has far-reaching empirical and theoretical implications.

Holocene experiment with coupled atmosphere-ocean-model ECHAM5/MPI-OM

Changes in the Earth's orbit lead to changes in the seasonal and meridional distribution of insolation. We quantify the influence of orbitally induced changes on the seasonal temperature cycle in a transient simulation of the last 6000 years - from the mid-Holocene to today - using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) including a land surface model (JSBACH). The seasonal temperature cycle responds directly to the insolation changes almost everywhere. In the Northern Hemisphere, its amplitude decreases according to an increase in winter insolation and a decrease in summer insolation. In the Southern Hemisphere, the opposite is true. Over the Arctic Ocean, decreasing summer insolation leads to an increase in sea-ice cover. The insulating effect of sea ice between the ocean and the atmosphere leads to decreasing heat flux and favors more "continental" conditions over the Arctic Ocean in winter, resulting in strongly decreasing temperatures. Consequently, there are two competing effects: the direct response to insolation changes and a sea-ice insulation effect. The sea-ice insulation effect is stronger, and thus an increase in the amplitude of the seasonal temperature cycle over the Arctic Ocean occurs. This increase is strongest over the Barents Shelf and influences the temperature response over northern Europe. We compare our modeled seasonal temperatures over Europe to paleo reconstructions. We find better agreements in winter temperatures than in summer temperatures and better agreements in northern Europe than in southern Europe, since the model does not reproduce the southern European Holocene summer cooling inferred from the paleo reconstructions. The temperature reconstructions for northern Europe support the notion of the influence of the sea-ice insulation effect on the evolution of the seasonal temperature cycle.

Making a difference? Public service broadcasting, distinctiveness and children’s provision in Italy and Spain

This article evaluates the performance of public service broadcasters in the area of children’s television in Italy and Spain. It asks: how distinctive is the output of public service children’s channels? As core area of public service provision, children’s television represents an important testing ground for wider debates about the distinctiveness of public service broadcasting in a digital age. Public broadcasters in Southern Europe have historically been more vulnerable to market pressure than their counterparts in continental and Northern Europe, and this is believed to have impacted negatively on their ability to maintain a distinctive public service profile. After engaging with debates on distinctiveness in order to develop a framework for the analysis, the article presents the results of a two-week analysis of the TV schedules of the main children’s channels operating in the two countries. It finds evidence that in both countries the output of public service children’s channels is distinctive to a degree, but also that there are important gaps in public service provision as well as some significant differences between the public service children’s channels analysed.

Have Anglo-Saxon concepts really influenced the development of European qualifications policy?

This paper considers how far Anglo-Saxon conceptions of have influenced European Union vocational education and training policy, especially given the disparate approaches to VET across Europe. Two dominant approaches can be identified: the dual system (exemplified by Germany); and output based models (exemplified by the NVQ ‘English style’). Within the EU itself, the design philosophy of the English output-based model proved in the first instance influential in attempts to develop tools to establish equivalence between vocational qualifications across Europe, resulting in the learning outcomes approach of the European Qualifications Framework, the credit-based model of European VET Credit System and the task-based construction of occupation profiles exemplified by European Skills, Competences and Occupations. The governance model for the English system is, however, predicated on employer demand for ‘skills’ and this does not fit well with the social partnership model encompassing knowledge, skills and competences that is dominant in northern Europe. These contrasting approaches have led to continual modifications to the tools, as these sought to harmonise and reconcile national VET requirements with the original design. A tension is evident in particular between national and regional approaches to vocational education and training, on the one hand, and the policy tools adopted to align European vocational education and training better with the demands of the labour market, including at sectoral level, on the other. This paper explores these tensions and considers the prospects for the successful operation of these tools, paying particular attention to the European Qualifications Framework, European VET Credit System and European Skills, Competences and Occupations tool and the relationships between them and drawing on studies of the construction and furniture industries.

The relationship between vegetation and modern pollen assemblages on Mount Paggeo (NE Greece)

In this study, we investigated the relationship between vegetation and modern-pollen rain along the elevational gradient of Mount Paggeo. We apply multivariate data analysis to assess the relationship between vegetation and modern-pollen rain and quantify the representativeness of forest zones. This study represents the first statistical analysis of pollen-vegetation relationship along an elevational gradient in Greece. Hence, this paper improves confidence in interpretation of palynological records from north-eastern Greece and may refine past climate reconstructions for a more accurate comparison of data and modelling. Numerical classification and ordination were performed on pollen data to assess differences among plant communities that beech (Fagus sylvatica) dominates or co-dominates. The results show a strong relationship between altitude, arboreal cover, human impact and variations in pollen and nonpollen palynomorph taxa percentages.

La cerámica del yacimiento arqueológico de Castillejo del Bonete (Terrinches, Ciudad Real). Estudio morfológico y tecnólogico

El presente trabajo incluye el estudio de un amplio conjunto cerámico perteneciente al yacimiento arqueológico de la Edad del Cobre y Edad del Bronce de Castillejo del Bonete. La muestra fue recuperada de distintas áreas del asentamiento durante la campaña de excavación de 2012. La investigación ha tenido como fin conocer mejor la relación forma-función de las vasijas, su proceso de fabricación, así como el modelo productivo y las posibles manifestaciones simbólicas presentes en el repertorio analizado. La metodología utilizada para cumplir con los objetivos se ha basado en la recopilación de datos, considerando una serie de variables morfológicas y tecnológicas, y su procesamiento con el empleo de técnicas estadísticas sencillas.

The neurotoxin β-N-methylamino-L-alanine (BMAA) : Sources, bioaccumulation and extraction procedures

β-methylamino-L-alanine (BMAA) is a neurotoxin linked to neurodegeneration, which is manifested in the devastating human diseases amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s disease. This neurotoxin is known to be produced by almost all tested species within the cyanobacterial phylum including free living as well as the symbiotic strains. The global distribution of the BMAA producers ranges from a terrestrial ecosystem on the Island of Guam in the Pacific Ocean to an aquatic ecosystem in Northern Europe, the Baltic Sea, where annually massive surface blooms occur. BMAA had been shown to accumulate in the Baltic Sea food web, with highest levels in the bottom dwelling fish-species as well as in mollusks. One of the aims of this thesis was to test the bottom-dwelling bioaccumulation hypothesis by using a larger number of samples allowing a statistical evaluation. Hence, a large set of fish individuals from the lake Finjasjön, were caught and the BMAA concentrations in different tissues were related to the season of catching, fish gender, total weight and species. The results reveal that fish total weight and fish species were positively correlated with BMAA concentration in the fish brain. Therefore, significantly higher concentrations of BMAA in the brain were detected in plankti-benthivorous fish species and heavier (potentially older) individuals. Another goal was to investigate the potential production of BMAA by other phytoplankton organisms. Therefore, diatom cultures were investigated and confirmed to produce BMAA, even in higher concentrations than cyanobacteria. All diatom cultures studied during this thesis work were show to contain BMAA, as well as one dinoflagellate species. This might imply that the environmental spread of BMAA in aquatic ecosystems is even higher than previously thought. Earlier reports on the concentration of BMAA in different organisms have shown highly variable results and the methods used for quantification have been intensively discussed in the scientific community. In the most recent studies, liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) has become the instrument of choice, due to its high sensitivity and selectivity. Even so, different studies show quite variable concentrations of BMAA. In this thesis, three of the most common BMAA extraction protocols were evaluated in order to find out if the extraction could be one of the sources of variability. It was found that the method involving precipitation of proteins using trichloroacetic acid gave the best performance, complying with all in-house validation criteria. However, extractions of diatom and cyanobacteria cultures with this validated method and quantified using LC-MS/MS still resulted in variable BMAA concentrations, which suggest that also biological reasons contribute to the discrepancies. The current knowledge on the environmental factors that can induce or reduce BMAA production is still limited. In cyanobacteria, production of BMAA was earlier shown to be negative correlated with nitrogen availability – both in laboratory cultures as well as in natural populations. Based on this observation, it was suggested that in unicellular non-diazotrophic cyanobacteria, BMAA might take part in nitrogen metabolism. In order to find out if BMAA has a similar role in diatoms, BMAA was added to two diatom species in culture, in concentrations corresponding to those earlier found in the diatoms. The results suggest that BMAA might induce a nitrogen starvation signal in diatoms, as was earlier observed in cyanobacteria. However, diatoms recover shortly by the extracellular presence of excreted ammonia. Thus, also in diatoms, BMAA might be involved in the nitrogen balance in the cell.

European lampreys: new insights on postglacial colonization, gene flow and speciation.

Ice ages are known to be the most dominant palaeoclimatic feature occurring on Earth, producing severe climatic oscillations and consequently shaping the distribution and the population structure of several species. Lampreys constitute excellent models to study the colonization of freshwater systems, as they commonly appear in pairs of closely related species of anadromous versus freshwater resident adults, thus having the ability to colonize new habitats, through the anadromous species, and establish freshwater resident derivates. We used 10 microsatellite loci to investigate the spatial structure, patterns of gene flow and migration routes of Lampetra populations in Europe. We sampled 11 populations including the migratory L. fluviatilis and four resident species, L. planeri, L. alavariensis, L. auremensis and L. lusitanica, the last three endemic to the Iberian Peninsula. In this southern glacial refugium almost all sampled populations represent a distinct genetic cluster, showing high levels of allopatric differentiation, reflecting long periods of isolation. As result of their more recent common ancestor, populations from northern Europe are less divergent among them, they are represented by fewer genetic clusters, and there is evidence of strong recent gene flow among populations. These previously glaciated areas from northern Europe may have been colonized from lampreys expanding out of the Iberian refugia. The pair L. fluviatilis/L. planeri is apparently at different stages of speciation in different locations, showing evidences of high reproductive isolation in the southern refugium, and low differentiation in the north.