A Simple Accounting-based Valuation Model for the Debt Tax Shield

This paper describes a simple way to integrate the debt tax shield into an accounting-based valuation model. The market value of equity is determined by forecasting residual operating income, which is calculated by charging operating income for the operating assets at a required return that accounts for the tax benefit that comes from borrowing to raise cash for the operations. The model assumes that the firm maintains a deterministic financial leverage ratio, which tends to converge quickly to typical steady-state levels over time. From a practical point of view, this characteristic is of particular help, because it allows a continuing value calculation at the end of a short forecast period.

Impact of unlinked deaths and coding changes on mortality trends in the Swiss National Cohort

BACKGROUND Results of epidemiological studies linking census with mortality records may be affected by unlinked deaths and changes in cause of death classification. We examined these issues in the Swiss National Cohort (SNC). METHODS The SNC is a longitudinal study of the entire Swiss population, based on the 1990 (6.8 million persons) and 2000 (7.3 million persons) censuses. Among 1,053,393 deaths recorded 1991-2007 5.4% could not be linked using stringent probabilistic linkage. We included the unlinked deaths using pragmatic linkages and compared mortality rates for selected causes with official mortality rates. We also examined the impact of the 1995 change in cause of death coding from version 8 (with some additional rules) to version 10 of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD), using Poisson regression models with restricted cubic splines. Finally, we compared results from Cox models including and excluding unlinked deaths of the association of education, marital status, and nationality with selected causes of death. RESULTS SNC mortality rates underestimated all cause mortality by 9.6% (range 2.4%-17.9%) in the 85+ population. Underestimation was less pronounced in years nearer the censuses and in the 75-84 age group. After including 99.7% of unlinked deaths, annual all cause SNC mortality rates were reflecting official rates (relative difference between -1.4% and +1.8%). In the 85+ population the rates for prostate and breast cancer dropped, by 16% and 21% respectively, between 1994 and 1995 coincident with the change in cause of death coding policy. For suicide in males almost no change was observed. Hazard ratios were only negligibly affected by including the unlinked deaths. A sudden decrease in breast (21% less, 95% confidence interval: 12%-28%) and prostate (16% less, 95% confidence interval: 7%-23%) cancer mortality rates in the 85+ population coincided with the 1995 change in cause of death coding policy. CONCLUSIONS Unlinked deaths bias analyses of absolute mortality rates downwards but have little effect on relative mortality. To describe time trends of cause-specific mortality in the SNC, accounting for the unlinked deaths and for the possible effect of change in death certificate coding was necessary.

Decision-usefulness of ideal cost- and ideal value accounting for valuation and stewardship

This paper contrasts the decision-usefulness of prototype accounting regimes based on perfect accounting for value, i.e. ideal value accounting (IVA), and perfect matching of cost, i.e. ideal cost accounting (ICA). The regimes are analyzed in the context of a firm with overlapping capacity investments where projects earn excess returns and residual income is utilized as performance indicator. Provided that IVA and ICA systematically differ based on the criterion of unconditional conservatism, we assess their respective decision-usefulness for different valuation- and stewardship-scenarios. Assuming that addressees solely observe current accounting data of the firm, ICA provides information which is useful for valuation and stewardship without reservation whereas IVA entails problems under specific assumptions.

Immunodeficiency at the start of combination antiretroviral therapy in low-, middle-, and high-income countries

OBJECTIVE To describe the CD4 cell count at the start of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in low-income (LIC), lower middle-income (LMIC), upper middle-income (UMIC), and high-income (HIC) countries. METHODS Patients aged 16 years or older starting cART in a clinic participating in a multicohort collaboration spanning 6 continents (International epidemiological Databases to Evaluate AIDS and ART Cohort Collaboration) were eligible. Multilevel linear regression models were adjusted for age, gender, and calendar year; missing CD4 counts were imputed. RESULTS In total, 379,865 patients from 9 LIC, 4 LMIC, 4 UMIC, and 6 HIC were included. In LIC, the median CD4 cell count at cART initiation increased by 83% from 80 to 145 cells/μL between 2002 and 2009. Corresponding increases in LMIC, UMIC, and HIC were from 87 to 155 cells/μL (76% increase), 88 to 135 cells/μL (53%), and 209 to 274 cells/μL (31%). In 2009, compared with LIC, median counts were 13 cells/μL [95% confidence interval (CI): -56 to +30] lower in LMIC, 22 cells/μL (-62 to +18) lower in UMIC, and 112 cells/μL (+75 to +149) higher in HIC. They were 23 cells/μL (95% CI: +18 to +28 cells/μL) higher in women than men. Median counts were 88 cells/μL (95% CI: +35 to +141 cells/μL) higher in countries with an estimated national cART coverage >80%, compared with countries with <40% coverage. CONCLUSIONS Median CD4 cell counts at the start of cART increased 2000-2009 but remained below 200 cells/μL in LIC and MIC and below 300 cells/μL in HIC. Earlier start of cART will require substantial efforts and resources globally.

Inequality in Income and Wealth in Switzerland from 1970 to 2010

The supposed rise of inequality in income and wealth is a much-discussed issue. Since in a number of industrialized countries a trend towards more inequality was observed over the last decades, it is often assumed that Switzerland has experienced a similar development. Yet, although a variety of studies exists that provide inequality estimates for the Swiss society at different points in time, no conclusive picture of the changes in inequality can be drawn from these studies. For example, recent estimates by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office indicate that – against expectations – inequality in disposable equivalent-incomes has not risen since the end of the 1990ies, whereas other studies indicate that earnings from employment – especially top salaries – have become more unequal. The reasons for the inconclusive picture are manifold. For example, trends might have been different for different income types and results might strongly depend on the quality of the used data. To close the knowledge gap in inequality research in Switzerland a new Swiss National Science Foundation project by the University of Bern and the Bern University of Applied Sciences has been started in 2013. Individual tax data from cantons will be analyzed along with aggregate data from the Swiss Federal Tax Administration, covering a period from the early 1970ies to the present. The goal is to gain a systematic overview of the development of inequality in income and wealth in Switzerland as a whole and within cantons, and to determine how changes can be explained. In our talk we will present first results from this project.

Genital chlamydia prevalence in Europe and in non-European high income countries: systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Accurate information about the prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis is needed to assess national prevention and control measures. Methods: We systematically reviewed population-based cross-sectional studies that estimated chlamydia prevalence in European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) Member States and non-European high income countries from January 1990 to August 2012. We examined results in forest plots, explored heterogeneity using the I2 statistic, and conducted random effects meta-analysis if appropriate. Metaregression was used to examine the relationship between study characteristics and chlamydia prevalence estimates. Results: We included 25 population-based studies from 11 EU/EEA countries and 14 studies from five other high income countries. Four EU/EEA Member States reported on nationally representative surveys of sexually experienced adults aged 18-26 years (response rates 52-71%). In women, chlamydia point prevalence estimates ranged from 3.0-5.3%; the pooled average of these estimates was 3.6% (95% CI 2.4, 4.8, I2 0%). In men, estimates ranged from 2.4-7.3% (pooled average 3.5%; 95% CI 1.9, 5.2, I2 27%). Estimates in EU/EEA Member States were statistically consistent with those in other high income countries (I2 0% for women, 6% for men). There was statistical evidence of an association between survey response rate and estimated chlamydia prevalence; estimates were higher in surveys with lower response rates, (p=0.003 in women, 0.018 in men). Conclusions: Population-based surveys that estimate chlamydia prevalence are at risk of participation bias owing to low response rates. Estimates obtained in nationally representative samples of the general population of EU/EEA Member States are similar to estimates from other high income countries.

Comparative effectiveness of immediate antiretroviral therapy versus CD4-based initiation in HIV-positive individuals in high-income countries: observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND Recommendations have differed nationally and internationally with respect to the best time to start antiretroviral therapy (ART). We compared effectiveness of three strategies for initiation of ART in high-income countries for HIV-positive individuals who do not have AIDS: immediate initiation, initiation at a CD4 count less than 500 cells per μL, and initiation at a CD4 count less than 350 cells per μL. METHODS We used data from the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration of cohort studies in Europe and the USA. We included 55 826 individuals aged 18 years or older who were diagnosed with HIV-1 infection between January, 2000, and September, 2013, had not started ART, did not have AIDS, and had CD4 count and HIV-RNA viral load measurements within 6 months of HIV diagnosis. We estimated relative risks of death and of death or AIDS-defining illness, mean survival time, the proportion of individuals in need of ART, and the proportion of individuals with HIV-RNA viral load less than 50 copies per mL, as would have been recorded under each ART initiation strategy after 7 years of HIV diagnosis. We used the parametric g-formula to adjust for baseline and time-varying confounders. FINDINGS Median CD4 count at diagnosis of HIV infection was 376 cells per μL (IQR 222-551). Compared with immediate initiation, the estimated relative risk of death was 1·02 (95% CI 1·01-1·02) when ART was started at a CD4 count less than 500 cells per μL, and 1·06 (1·04-1·08) with initiation at a CD4 count less than 350 cells per μL. Corresponding estimates for death or AIDS-defining illness were 1·06 (1·06-1·07) and 1·20 (1·17-1·23), respectively. Compared with immediate initiation, the mean survival time at 7 years with a strategy of initiation at a CD4 count less than 500 cells per μL was 2 days shorter (95% CI 1-2) and at a CD4 count less than 350 cells per μL was 5 days shorter (4-6). 7 years after diagnosis of HIV, 100%, 98·7% (95% CI 98·6-98·7), and 92·6% (92·2-92·9) of individuals would have been in need of ART with immediate initiation, initiation at a CD4 count less than 500 cells per μL, and initiation at a CD4 count less than 350 cells per μL, respectively. Corresponding proportions of individuals with HIV-RNA viral load less than 50 copies per mL at 7 years were 87·3% (87·3-88·6), 87·4% (87·4-88·6), and 83·8% (83·6-84·9). INTERPRETATION The benefits of immediate initiation of ART, such as prolonged survival and AIDS-free survival and increased virological suppression, were small in this high-income setting with relatively low CD4 count at HIV diagnosis. The estimated beneficial effect on AIDS is less than in recently reported randomised trials. Increasing rates of HIV testing might be as important as a policy of early initiation of ART. FUNDING National Institutes of Health.

Factors associated with smoking cessation using the 2005 National Health Interview Survey

Objectives. The objective of this study is to compare the socio-demographic, behavioral, and access to care characteristics of smokers who have quit smoking for one or more years and current smokers who have made an attempt to quit smoking within the last year. ^ Methods. Data from the 2005 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) were used to compare current smokers who have tried to quit (n=2747) and former smokers who have quit for one or more years (n=6194). The data was analyzed using STATA 9.0 to perform statistical calculations. ^ Results. Age, education, race and income were associated with smoking status. Respondents aged 65 and older were 36 times more likely to have quit smoking. Education and income had higher odds ratios among quitters (OR=1.27 and OR=1.21) and Non-Hispanic Whites were the most likely to have quit smoking compared to Hispanics and Blacks. Adults with health insurance coverage were 3.44 times more likely to have quit smoking. ^ Discussion. Existing research suggests that individual factors relating to demographics behavior and access to care can impact a smoker's ability to quit smoking. This paper discusses the factors that affect cessation and which populations would benefit from additional research and targeted smoking cessation programs. ^

Demographic and social factors which influence periodontal disease using the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (NHANES)

Periodontal diseases include the various forms of gingivitis and periodontitis. Scientific literature submits 80% of the population suffers from some form of periodontal disease. The comparison of studies measuring periodontal disease is difficult because researchers use various parameters and indexes to define disease severity. The purposes of this paper were to examine the associations of gingival bleeding and 3 or more millimeters periodontal attachment loss, and age, sex, income, race/ethnicity, current tobacco use, dental visits, health insurance, stroke, heart attack, and diabetes using the periodontal examination population from the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999-2004. ^ When all risk factors were analyzed in the model as a whole sex, race/ethnicity, poverty, and education were statistically significant for bleeding on probing. When all risk factors were analyzed in the model as a whole sex, age, and education were statistically significant for loss of attachment. ^

The effects of respiratory ailments and income on depression in a nationally representative sample

Asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder, sinusitis and hay fever have previously been documented as risk factors for future depression in a wide variety of populations. Likewise, belonging to a higher income category has been found to place a person at risk for any type of depression. This study investigates whether an interactive effect between personal income and the presence of any of the four aforementioned respiratory illnesses contribute to an increased risk for depression. Using the National Health and Nutrition Health Examination Survey cross-sectional survey for 2005-2006, analysis of an interaction term for each illness in the presence of confounding factors such as age, smoking status, past or present diagnosis of diabetes, coronary heart disease and heart attack was made within six distinct racial/ethnic and sex subgroups. Generally, interaction terms were found to be non-significant in nature, except hay fever and COPD where in a few subgroups where the interaction term conferred a protective or risk influence depending on the subgroup analyzed. These findings are discussed in light of potential social costs of having certain respiratory illnesses by individuals in higher income categories and the effect of severity within each illness on the resulting risk or protective effect of the interaction term.^

Social support, health status and health services utilization among the noninstitutionalized elderly: An analysis of the Supplement on Aging to the 1984 national health interview survey

The association between Social Support, Health Status, and Health Services Utilization of the elderly, was explored based on the analysis of data from the Supplement on Aging to the National Health Interview Survey, 1984 (N = 11,497) using a modified framework of Aday and Andersen's Expanded Behavioral Model. The results suggested that Social Support as operationalized in this study was an independent determinant of the use of health services. The quantity of social activities and the use of community services were the two most consistent determinants across different types of health services use.^ The effects of social support on the use of health services were broken down into three components to facilitate explanations of the mechanisms through which social support operated. The Predisposing and Enabling component of Social Support had independent, although not uniform, effects on the use of health services. Only slight substitute effects of social support were detected. These included the substitution of the use of senior centers for longer stay in the hospital and the substitution of help with IADL problems for the use of formal home care services.^ The effect of financial support on the use of health services was found to be different for middle and low income populations. This differential effect was also found for the presence of intimate networks, the frequencies of interaction with children and the perceived availability of support among urban/rural, male/female and white/non-white subgroups.^ The study also suggested that the selection of appropriate Health Status measures should be based on the type of Health Services Utilization in which a researcher is interested. The level of physical function limitation and role activity limitation were the two most consistent predictors of the volume of physician visits, number of hospital days, and average length of stay in the hospital during the past year.^ Some alternative hypotheses were also raised and evaluated, when possible. The impacts of the complex sample design, the reliability and validity of the measures and other limitations of this analysis were also discussed. Finally, a revised framework was proposed and discussed based on the analysis. Some policy implications and suggestions for future study were also presented. ^

Prevention of birth defects in a national study

The following analyses covered two main objectives focused on the prevention of and identification of risk factors for birth defects, the leading cause of infant mortality. All analyses utilized data from the National Birth Defects Prevention Study (NBDPS), an ongoing, population-based, case-control study of major structural birth defects. ^ The first objective was to identify predictors of folic acid supplementation among women of reproductive age. To meet this objective, a previous analysis of potential predictors of periconcecptional folic acid use in the NBDPS was repeated using data from more recent years (1997-2000 versus 2001-2005). The results of these analyses were consistent with the initial analyses, indicating that folic acid use is associated with maternal race/ethnicity, age, education, pregnancy awareness, smoking status, first prenatal care visit, previous live births, and fertility treatments). In addition, data from NBDPS controls were used to identify predictors of preconceptional folic acid use, since supplementation is optimally initiated prior to pregnancy (rather than after conception). These analyses indicated that maternal race/ethnicity, education, age, nativity, employment status, income, number of dependents, smoking, and birth control are significantly associated with preconceptional folic acid supplementation. Ultimately the results of these analyses can be used to guide the development of targeted interventions for preconceptional folic acid use. ^ The second objective was to investigate the association between parental Hispanic acculturation and the risk of gastroschisis, a congenital malformation of the abdominal wall, in offspring. Significant association were not observed for mothers < 20 years of age at conception. Among mothers ≥ 20 years of age, white parents were at a decreased risk of having a child with gastroschisis as compared to Hispanic parents who were born in the United States (US) [odd ratios (ORs) ranging from 0.60 to 0.55] and Hispanics parents who predominantly spoke English (ORs ranging from 0.65 to 0.58). Compared to Hispanic mothers born in the US, the risk of gastroschisis was lower among Hispanic mothers who had lived in the US < 5 years (OR=0.36, 95% CI: 0.42, 0.81) at the time of delivery and Hispanic mothers who migrated to the US at ≥ 20 years of age (OR=0.48, 95% CI: 0.26, 0.89). The results of these analyses provide further evidence that the risk of gastroschisis in offspring is associated with parent Hispanic ethnicity and, among Hispanics, with the degree of parental acculturation. Future studies should focus on characteristic differences between less and more acculturated parents to better understand the relationship between acculturation and gastroschisis.^

Risk assessment of the spanish national railway system

The principal risks in the railway industry are mainly associated with collisions, derailments and level crossing accidents. An understanding of the nature of previous accidents on the railway network is required to identify potential causes and develop safety systems and deploy safety procedures. Risk assessment is a process for determining the risk magnitude to assist with decision-making. We propose a three-step methodology to predict the mean number of fatalities in railway accidents. The first is to predict the mean number of accidents by analyzing generalized linear models and selecting the one that best fits to the available historical data on the basis of goodness-offit statistics. The second is to compute the mean number of fatalities per accident and the third is to estimate the mean number of fatalities. The methodology is illustrated on the Spanish railway system. Statistical models accounting for annual and grouped data for the 1992-2009 time period have been analyzed. After identifying the models for broad and narrow gauges, we predicted mean number of accidents and the number of fatalities for the 2010-18 time period.

Income, energy expenditure and housing in Madrid: retrofitting policy implications

Fuel poverty can be defined as ‘the inability to afford adequate warmth in the home’ and it is the result of the combination of three factors: low household income, lack of energy efficiency and high energy bills. Within this context, the present research is aimed at characterizing, for the first time, the housing stock of fuel-poor households in the Autonomous Region of Madrid. Fuel poverty incidence was established and households were divided into six different groups according to their relative position regarding fuel and monetary poverty. The housing stock of each group is characterized and those households most in need are identified. These results enable energy retrofitting priorities to be established, focusing on the needs of the different household groups and accounting for their housing stock characteristics. This allows Spanish energy retrofitting policies to be assessed for their capability of tackling fuel poverty and makes it possible to suggest some improvements.

Self-rated health and hospital services use in the Spanish National Health System: a longitudinal study

Background: Self-rated health is a subjective measure that has been related to indicators such as mortality, morbidity, functional capacity, and the use of health services. In Spain, there are few longitudinal studies associating self-rated health with hospital services use. The purpose of this study is to analyze the association between self-rated health and socioeconomic, demographic, and health variables, and the use of hospital services among the general population in the Region of Valencia, Spain. Methods: Longitudinal study of 5,275 adults who were included in the 2005 Region of Valencia Health Survey and linked to the Minimum Hospital Data Set between 2006 and 2009. Logistic regression models were used to calculate the odds ratios between use of hospital services and self-rated health, sex, age, educational level, employment status, income, country of birth, chronic conditions, disability and previous use of hospital services. Results: By the end of a 4-year follow-up period, 1,184 participants (22.4 %) had used hospital services. Use of hospital services was associated with poor self-rated health among both men and women. In men, it was also associated with unemployment, low income, and the presence of a chronic disease. In women, it was associated with low educational level, the presence of a disability, previous hospital services use, and the presence of chronic disease. Interactions were detected between self-rated health and chronic disease in men and between self-rated health and educational level in women. Conclusions: Self-rated health acts as a predictor of hospital services use. Various health and socioeconomic variables provide additional predictive capacity. Interactions were detected between self-rated health and other variables that may reflect different complex predictive models, by gender.