A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

Study on Chagas disease occurrence in the municipality of Monte Negro, State of Rondônia, Brazilian Amazon

INTRODUCTION: Studies on Chagas disease deal with the perspective of its occurrence in the Amazon region, which is directly correlated to the population growth and the spread of the bug biotope. The state of Rondônia has an immense source of vectors (Triatomine) and reservoirs of Trypanosoma cruzi. Environmental changes brought forth by the deforestation in the region may cause vector behavior changes and bring these vectors to a closer contact with humans, increasing the probability of vector infection. METHODS: This study was carried out to check the occurrence of Chagas disease in the municipality of Monte Negro, Rondônia, Brazil, based on a random sampling of the farms and people wherein blood collection from the population and capturing triatomines were done. The blood samples were submitted to serologic tests to detect antibodies of the IgG class against T. cruzi. The triatomines that were collected had their digestive tract checked for the presence of trypanosomatidae with morphology resembling that of the T. cruzi. RESULTS: The population examined was mostly from other states. From the 322 bugs examined on the microscope, 50% showed parasites with morphology compatible with T. cruzi. From the serology of 344 random samples of human blood, 1.2% was found positive, 6% showed inconclusive results, and 92.8% were negative. CONCLUSIONS: Monte Negro shows low prevalence of human infection by T. cruzi and none active vector transmission; however, preventive and surveying measures, which are not performed until now, shall be taken due to the abundance of vectors infected by trypanosomatidae.

Diagnosis of Leishmania (Leishmania) chagasi infection in dogs and the relationship with environmental and sanitary aspects in the municipality of Palmas, state of Tocantins, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: The aim of the present study was to identify the presence of Leishmania (Leishmania) chagasi infection in dogs in the City of Palmas, Tocantins, Brazil, using the PCR technique to list the hot spots of infected dogs in the city and associate their occurrence to significant environmental changes at capture sites. METHODS: DNA was extracted from blood of dogs, and the PCR were performed with primers RV1/RV2. After screening the population studied, the regions of the city that had the highest occurrence of canine infection were detected. These sites were visited, and ecological parameters denoting anthropogenic disturbance were evaluated. RESULTS: Some important features were listed in the regions visited, such as low urbanization, lack of public collection of sewage, limited garbage collection, vacant lots with tall vegetation, decaying organic matter, and, most importantly, the occurrence of stray dogs and poultry in homes. CONCLUSIONS: The methodology for screening the population was very efficient, especially in evaluating a large number of individuals in a short time, with a high degree of automation. The results indicate an association between the observed parameters and the occurrence of infection in dogs. The model presented in the city is ideal for studies of disease progression and expansion and for the evaluation of control measures adopted for canine VL.

Candida spp. isolated from inpatients, the environment, and health practitioners in the pediatric unit at the Universitary Hospital of the Jundiaí Medical College, state of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to isolate and identify Candida spp. from the environment, health practitioners, and patients with the presumptive diagnosis of candidiasis in the Pediatric Unit at the Universitary Hospital of the Jundiaí Medical College, to verify the production of enzymes regarded as virulence factors, and to determine how susceptible the isolated samples from patients with candidiasis are to antifungal agents. METHODS: Between March and November of 2008 a total of 283 samples were taken randomly from the environment and from the hands of health staff, and samples of all the suspected cases of Candida spp. hospital-acquired infection were collected and selected by the Infection Control Committee. The material was processed and the yeast genus Candida was isolated and identified by physiological, microscopic, and macroscopic attributes. RESULTS: The incidence of Candida spp. in the environment and employees was 19.2%. The most frequent species were C. parapsilosis and C. tropicalis among the workers, C. guilliermondii and C. tropicalis in the air, C. lusitanae on the contact surfaces, and C. tropicalis and C. guilliermondii in the climate control equipment. The college hospital had 320 admissions, of which 13 (4%) presented Candida spp. infections; three of them died, two being victims of a C. tropicalis infection and the remaining one of C. albicans. All the Candida spp. in the isolates evidenced sensitivity to amphotericin B, nystatin, and fluconazole. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in the rate of hospital-acquired infections caused by Candida spp. indicates the need to take larger measures regarding recurrent control of the environment.

Trauma and envenoming caused by stingrays and other fish in a fishing community in Pontal do Paranapanema, state of São Paulo, Brazil: epidemiology, clinical aspects, and therapeutic and preventive measures

INTRODUCTION: Accidents caused by fish are common in inland fishing communities in Brazil, being work-related injuries in the majority of cases. These populations have no information on the mechanisms of trauma or envenoming. METHODS: Through a questionnaire administered to fishermen, we obtained clinical and epidemiological data on accidents in Rosana, Pontal do Paranapanema, State of São Paulo, Brazil. These data were analyzed and converted into an easily understood prevention and treatment program for the colony. RESULTS: Thirty-nine fishermen replied to the survey. All of the patients had been hurt by fish. Of those mentioned, the yellow catfish (Pimelodus maculatus) was the main fish species associated with injuries, but others also caused trauma to the fishermen. Six fishermen had been envenomed by stingrays. Pain and ulcers were the main symptoms and were described as intolerable. Approximately half of those injured were treated using traditional folk remedies. CONCLUSIONS: The fishermen suffered multiple accidents with catfish, which are venomous and cause intense pain, as well as trauma due to other fish, such as surubins, traíras, freshwater croakers, and piranhas. Approximately 16% of those interviewed presented with envenomation from stingrays. Our data and previous experience in the area led to the creation of a pamphlet with clear language that can effectively help fishermen in the region, an area in need of health services and disease prevention. This initiative also applies to the whole La Plata River basin, which has similar fauna.

Natural infection of triatomines (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) by trypanosomatids in two different environments in the municipality of Ouro Preto do Oeste, State of Rondônia, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: This study analyzed the occurrence and the contamination of triatomines by trypanosomatids in Orbignya speciosa (babassu) specimens in the State of Rondônia, Brazil, in two different environments (pasture and woods). METHODS: Capture of triatomines on babassus and microscopic search for trypanosomatids in their digestive tube were carried out. RESULTS: Four hundred ninety-four (494) specimens were captured (Rhodnius prolixus and R.robustus), of which 35.6% of the triatomines were positive for trypanosomatids. CONCLUSIONS: The high index of natural infection along with the abundance of triatomines points out to the necessity to create an epidemiological surveillance system to monitor vector-borne transmission and deepen the studies on the ecology of such vectors in the Amazon.

Phlebotomine sandflies fauna (Diptera: Psychodidae) at rural settlements in the municipality of Cáceres, State of Mato Grosso, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Leishmaniasis is expanding across Brazil, including the State of Mato Grosso (MT). The aim of this study was to characterize the phlebotomine sandfly fauna at threerural settlements located in the municipality of Cáceres, MT, from August 2010 to July 2011. METHODS: Sandfly captures were conducted at the forest border and in intra and peridomicile areas with automatic light traps, biweekly, from 5pm to 6am. RESULTS: Of the 630 sandflies collected, 348 were female, and 282 were male. Captured specimens were distributed across 11 genera - Brumptomyia, Evandromyia, Expapillata, Lutzomyia, Martinsmyia, Micropygomyia, Nyssomyia, Pintomyia, Psathyromyia, Psychodopygus, and Sciopemyia - and 28 species. Among these, six species had not been marked yet in MT (Brumptomyia avellari, Br. mangabeirai, Evandromyia aldafalcaoae, Micropygomyia echinatopharynx, Micropygomyia peresi, and Pa. campograndensis). Nyssomyia whitmani was the most abundant species across ecotopes at all settlements. Interestingly, Lutzomyia longipalpis and Lutzomyia cruzi were found in sympatry. CONCLUSIONS: The disorganized occupation of the environment that is happening at the rural settlements of Mata Comprida, Laranjeira I and II could provide opportunities for the domiciliation of wild populations of phlebotomine, including vectors of leishmaniasis. Therefore, more studies are needed to understand the epidemiology of the disease in these areas and its impact on the human population.

A retrospective serologic survey of hantavirus infections in the county of Cássia dos Coqueiros, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: In recent years, hantavirus infections producing severe diseases have obtained an increased attention from public health authorities from the countries of Eurasia to the Americas. Brazil has reported 1,300 cases of hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS) from 1993 to 2010, with about 80 of them occurring in the northeast of the State of São Paulo, with 48% fatality rate. Araraquara virus was the causative agent of HCPS in the region. Considering that hantaviruses causing human disease in the Americas were unknown until 1993, we have looked for hantavirus infections in the population of Cássia dos Coqueiros county, northeast of the State of São Paulo, Brazil, before this time. This county has about 2,800 inhabitants and an economy based on agriculture, including cultivation of Brachiaria decumbens grass. The grass seeds are an important rodent attraction, facilitating transmission of hantavirus to man. Four HCPS cases were reported so far in the county. METHODS: In this study, 1,876 sera collected from 1987 to 1990 were tested for IgG to hantavirus by IgG-ELISA, using the N recombinant protein of Araraquara virus as antigen. RESULTS: Positive results were observed in 89 (4.7%) samples, which were all collected in 1987. The positivity among urban inhabitants was 5.3%, compared with 4.3% among those living in rural areas. CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed that hantavirus infections occurred in Cássia dos Coqueiros, completely unrecognized, even before hantaviruses were described in the Americas.

Epidemiology of malaria in the municipality of Cruzeiro do Sul, State of Acre, Brazil, in 2010: uses of a control chart at the local level

INTRODUCTION: This study describes the uses of a control chart in the malaria surveillance at the local level, signaling whether there is a need to intensify or adapt control measures. METHODS: The districts of Cruzeiro do Sul (n=14), State of Acre, Brazil, were classified into three groups: I) those with an incidence lower than expected; II) those with an incidence within the expected range; and III) those with an epidemic. RESULTS: Thirteen of the fourteen districts had outbreaks of malaria at some point in 2010, and six districts showed persistent malaria epidemic throughout the year. CONCLUSIONS: The control chart may help the malaria control at the local level.

Spatio-temporal patterns of tuberculosis incidence in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, and their relationship with social vulnerability: a Bayesian analysis

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. METHODS: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. RESULTS: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirão Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.

Ecology of phlebotomines (Diptera, Psychodidae) in rural foci of leishmaniasis in tropical Brazil

INTRODUCTION: This work aimed to study the community structure of sandflies, with regard to the richness, constancy, abundance, and monthly frequency of the species with a focus on the transmission of leishmaniasis. METHODS: The study was conducted in the rural villages of Bom Jardim and Santa Maria, situated on the edge of a tropical rain forest in the municipality of São Jose de Ribamar, Maranhão, Brazil. The phlebotomines were captured in the intradomiciles and peridomiciles of each village, with Centers for Disease Control (CDC) light traps set in 10 homes in each village, for 1 year, once a month, from 18h to 6h. RESULTS: We collected 1,378 individuals of 16 sandfly species. The capture success rate was higher in Bom Jardim (0.61 specimens/hour/trap) than that of Santa Maria (0.35/specimens/hour/trap). The sandflies were more abundant in the peridomiciles (86.1%) and in the rainy season (77%). Five species were considered constants (occurring in more than 50% of samples), 5 accessory (25%-50%), and 6 accidental (<25%). The most abundant species were Lutzomyia longipalpis (59.7%) and L whitmani (28%). The permutation analysis showed differences between the species composition of the villages and no separation between the intradomicile and peridomicile of each village. The species that most contributed to the dissimilarity between the light traps of the 2 villages were L. longipalpis, L. whitmani, and L. evandroi, contributing to 80.8% of the variation among groups. CONCLUSIONS: The high level of richness and abundance of species and the presence of competent vectors throughout the year and around houses justify the occurrence of leishmaniasis cases reported in the area.

Epidemiological aspects of American cutaneous leishmaniasis and phlebotomine sandfly population, in the municipality of Monte Negro, State of Rondônia, Brazil

Introduction: This work was carried out on the purpose of identifying the species of phlebotomine sandflies in the municipality of Monte Negro, state of Rondonia, Brazil, that may have been transmitting the American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL), and concisely describe epidemiological aspects of disease. METHODS: The epidemiologic and socioeconomical indicators were obtained from government institutions and the local Municipal Secretary of Health. Phlebotomine sandflies were captured using CDC light traps between July 2006 to July 2008. The total of 1,240 of female sandflies were examined by PCR method directed to k-DNA. RESULTS: There has been a significant decrease in the incidence of ACL of about 50% over the last ten years in the municipality. A total of 1,935 specimens of 53 sandfly species were captured, three of the genus Brumptomyia genus and 50 of the genus Lutzomyia. The predominant species was Lutzomyia acanthopharynx, Lutzomyia whitmani, Lutzomyia geniculata and Lutzomyia davisi. None were positive for Leishmania sp. CONCLUSIONS: Four sandflies species were found in the State of Rondonia for the first time: Brumptomyia brumpti, Lutzomyia tarapacaensis, Lutzomyia melloi and Lutzomyia lenti. The presence of Lutzomyia longipalpis, was also captured. Socioeconomical improvement of Brazilian economy and the increase of environmental surveillance in the last 15 years collaborated in the decrease of people exposed to vectors, reducing the incidence of ACL.

Spatial distribution of trachoma cases in the City of Bauru, State of São Paulo, Brazil, detected in 2006: defining key areas for improvement of health resources

IntroductionThe objective of this study was to analyze the spatial behavior of the occurrence of trachoma cases detected in the City of Bauru, State of São Paulo, Brazil, in 2006 in order to use the information collected to set priority areas for optimization of health resources.Methodsthe trachoma cases identified in 2006 were georeferenced. The data evaluated were: schools where the trachoma cases studied, data from the 2000 Census, census tract, type of housing, water supply conditions, distribution of income and levels of education of household heads. In the Google Earth® software and TerraView® were made descriptive spatial analysis and estimates of the Kernel. Each area was studied by interpolation of the density surfaces exposing events to facilitate to recognize the clusters.ResultsOf the 66 cases detected, only one (1.5%) was not a resident of the city's outskirts. A positive association was detected of trachoma cases and the percentage of heads of household with income below three minimum wages and schooling under eight years of education.ConclusionsThe recognition of the spatial distribution of trachoma cases coincided with the areas of greatest social inequality in Bauru City. The micro-areas identified are those that should be prioritized in the rationalization of health resources. There is the possibility of using the trachoma cases detected as an indicator of performance of micro priority health programs.

Survey of sandfly vectors of leishmaniasis in Marambaia Island, municipality of Mangaratiba, State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

IntroductionThe influx and efflux of military personnel in the possible endemic areas of leishmaniasis provided the impetus for research on the sandflies on Marambaia Island.MethodsSandflies were collected with light traps installed in the 3 ecotypes of 3 areas chosen for their particular landscape aspects.ResultsIn 2009, were collected 32,006 specimens of sandflies belonging to 13 species. The species that showed highest density were Nyssomyia intermedia and Migoneimyia migonei.ConclusionsN. intermedia and M. migonei are the principal vectors of American tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL) in Brazil; thus, extension studies related to the eco-epidemiology of these species of Marambaia Island are essential.

Antifungal susceptibility and distribution of Candida spp. isolates from the University Hospital in the municipality of Dourados, State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

Introduction Hospital infections caused by Candida spp. are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in hospitalized patients, particularly those that are critically ill or immunocompromised. In this study, the distribution of Candida species in isolates from the University Hospital of the Federal University at Grande Dourados and their in vitro susceptibility to antifungal drugs were analyzed. Methods Yeasts were phenotypically identified using classical methodologies. Antifungal susceptibility tests to amphotericin B and fluconazole were performed using the broth microdilution technique. Results A total of 50 Candida isolates were obtained from hospitalized patients during the study period. We analyzed yeast isolates from urine (n=31; 62%), blood (n=12; 24%), and tracheal secretions (n=7; 14%). The following Candida species were identified: C. tropicalis (n=21; 42%), C. albicans (n=18; 36%), C. glabrata (n=10; 20%), and C. krusei (n=1; 2%). Antifungal susceptibility tests demonstrated that C. albicans was susceptible to both antifungal agents. However, 31.2% of the non-C. albicans Candida isolates displayed dose-dependent susceptibility to fluconazole, and 3.1% were resistant to amphotericin B. Conclusions In contrast to previous reports, our results indicated that C. tropicalis was the most commonly isolated yeast species among the hospital patients. The predominance of non-C. albicans Candida infections confirms the importance of species-level identification for implementing appropriate antifungal therapies.