910 resultados para Multiple Baseline Design
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State Highway Departments and local street and road agencies are currently faced with aging highway systems and a need to extend the life of some of the pavements. The agency engineer should have the opportunity to explore the use of multiple surface types in the selection of a preferred rehabilitation strategy. This study was designed to look at the portland cement concrete overlay alternative and especially the design of overlays for existing composite (portland cement and asphaltic cement concrete) pavements. Existing design procedures for portland cement concrete overlays deal primarily with an existing asphaltic concrete pavement with an underlying granular base or stabilized base. This study reviewed those design methods and moved to the development of a design for overlays of composite pavements. It deals directly with existing portland cement concrete pavements that have been overlaid with successive asphaltic concrete overlays and are in need of another overlay due to poor performance of the existing surface. The results of this study provide the engineer with a way to use existing deflection technology coupled with materials testing and a combination of existing overlay design methods to determine the design thickness of the portland cement concrete overlay. The design methodology provides guidance for the engineer, from the evaluation of the existing pavement condition through the construction of the overlay. It also provides a structural analysis of various joint and widening patterns on the performance of such designs. This work provides the engineer with a portland cement concrete overlay solution to composite pavements or conventional asphaltic concrete pavements that are in need of surface rehabilitation.
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Childhood obesity and physical inactivity are increasing dramatically worldwide. Children of low socioeconomic status and/or children of migrant background are especially at risk. In general, the overall effectiveness of school-based programs on health-related outcomes has been disappointing. A special gap exists for younger children and in high risk groups. This paper describes the rationale, design, curriculum, and evaluation of a multicenter preschool randomized intervention study conducted in areas with a high migrant population in two out of 26 Swiss cantons. Twenty preschool classes in the German (canton St. Gallen) and another 20 in the French (canton Vaud) part of Switzerland were separately selected and randomized to an intervention and a control arm by the use of opaque envelopes. The multidisciplinary lifestyle intervention aimed to increase physical activity and sleep duration, to reinforce healthy nutrition and eating behaviour, and to reduce media use. According to the ecological model, it included children, their parents and the teachers. The regular teachers performed the majority of the intervention and were supported by a local health promoter. The intervention included physical activity lessons, adaptation of the built infrastructure; promotion of regional extracurricular physical activity; playful lessons about nutrition, media use and sleep, funny homework cards and information materials for teachers and parents. It lasted one school year. Baseline and post-intervention evaluations were performed in both arms. Primary outcome measures included BMI and aerobic fitness (20 m shuttle run test). Secondary outcomes included total (skinfolds, bioelectrical impedance) and central (waist circumference) body fat, motor abilities (obstacle course, static and dynamic balance), physical activity and sleep duration (accelerometry and questionnaires), nutritional behaviour and food intake, media use, quality of life and signs of hyperactivity (questionnaires), attention and spatial working memory ability (two validated tests). Researchers were blinded to group allocation. The purpose of this paper is to outline the design of a school-based multicenter cluster randomized, controlled trial aiming to reduce body mass index and to increase aerobic fitness in preschool children in culturally different parts of Switzerland with a high migrant population. Trial Registration: (clinicaltrials.gov) NCT00674544.
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OBJECTIVE: To identify predictors of improved asthma control under conditions of everyday practice in Switzerland. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A subgroup of 1380 patients with initially inadequately controlled asthma was defined from a cohort of 1893 asthmatic patients (mean age 45.3 + or - 19.2 years) recruited by 281 office-based physicians who participated in a previously-conducted asthma control survey in Switzerland. Multiple regression techniques were used to identify predictors of improved asthma control, defined as an absolute decrease of 0.5 points or more in the Asthma Control Questionnaire between the baseline (V1) and follow-up visit (V2). RESULTS: Asthma control between V1 and V2 improved in 85.7%. Add-on treatment with montelukast was reported in 82.9% of the patients. Patients with worse asthma control at V1 and patients with good self-reported adherence to therapy had significantly higher chances of improved asthma control (OR = 1.24 and 1.73, 95% CI 1.18-1.29 and 1.20-2.50, respectively). Compared to adding montelukast and continuing the same inhaled corticosteroid/fixed combination (ICS/FC) dose, the addition of montelukast to an increased ICS/FC dose yielded a 4 times higher chance of improved asthma control (OR = 3.84, 95% CI 1.58-9.29). Significantly, withholding montelukast halved the probability of achieving improved asthma control (OR = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.33-078). The probability of improved asthma control was almost 5 times lower among patients in whom FEV(1) was measured compared to those in whom it was not (OR = 0.23, 95% CI = 0.09-0.55). Patients with severe persistent asthma also had a significantly lower probability of improved control (OR = 0.15, 95% CI = 0.07-0.32), as did older patients (OR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.97-0.99). Subgroup analyses which excluded patients whose asthma may have been misdiagnosed and might in reality have been chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) showed comparable results. CONCLUSIONS: Under conditions of everyday clinical practice, the addition of montelukast to ICS/FC and good adherence to therapy increased the likelihood of achieving better asthma control at the follow-up visit, while older age and more severe asthma significantly decreased it.
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The n-octanol/water partition coefficient (log Po/w) is a key physicochemical parameter for drug discovery, design, and development. Here, we present a physics-based approach that shows a strong linear correlation between the computed solvation free energy in implicit solvents and the experimental log Po/w on a cleansed data set of more than 17,500 molecules. After internal validation by five-fold cross-validation and data randomization, the predictive power of the most interesting multiple linear model, based on two GB/SA parameters solely, was tested on two different external sets of molecules. On the Martel druglike test set, the predictive power of the best model (N = 706, r = 0.64, MAE = 1.18, and RMSE = 1.40) is similar to six well-established empirical methods. On the 17-drug test set, our model outperformed all compared empirical methodologies (N = 17, r = 0.94, MAE = 0.38, and RMSE = 0.52). The physical basis of our original GB/SA approach together with its predictive capacity, computational efficiency (1 to 2 s per molecule), and tridimensional molecular graphics capability lay the foundations for a promising predictor, the implicit log P method (iLOGP), to complement the portfolio of drug design tools developed and provided by the SIB Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics.
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OBJECTIVE: To assess the public health consequences of the rise in multiple births with respect to congenital anomalies. DESIGN: Descriptive epidemiological analysis of data from population-based congenital anomaly registries. SETTING: Fourteen European countries. POPULATION: A total of 5.4 million births 1984-2007, of which 3% were multiple births. METHODS: Cases of congenital anomaly included live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks of gestation and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence rates per 10,000 births and relative risk of congenital anomaly in multiple versus singleton births (1984-2007); proportion prenatally diagnosed, proportion by pregnancy outcome (2000-07). Proportion of pairs where both co-twins were cases. RESULTS: Prevalence of congenital anomalies from multiple births increased from 5.9 (1984-87) to 10.7 per 10,000 births (2004-07). Relative risk of nonchromosomal anomaly in multiple births was 1.35 (95% CI 1.31-1.39), increasing over time, and of chromosomal anomalies was 0.72 (95% CI 0.65-0.80), decreasing over time. In 11.4% of affected twin pairs both babies had congenital anomalies (2000-07). The prenatal diagnosis rate was similar for multiple and singleton pregnancies. Cases from multiple pregnancies were less likely to be terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly, odds ratio 0.41 (95% CI 0.35-0.48) and more likely to be stillbirths and neonatal deaths. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in babies who are both from a multiple pregnancy and affected by a congenital anomaly has implications for prenatal and postnatal service provision. The contribution of assisted reproductive technologies to the increase in risk needs further research. The deficit of chromosomal anomalies among multiple births has relevance for prenatal risk counselling.
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Multiple organization indices have been used to predict the outcome of stepwise catheter ablation in long-standing persistent atrial fibrillation (AF), however with limited success. Our study aims at developinginnovative organization indices from baseline ECG (i.e. during the procedure, before ablation) in orderto identify the site of AF termination by catheter ablation. Seventeen consecutive male patients (age60 ± 5 years, AF duration 7 ± 5 years) underwent a stepwise catheter ablation. Chest lead V6 was placedin the back (V6b). QRST cancelation was performed from chest leads V1 to V6b. Using an innovativeadaptive harmonic frequency tracking, two measures of AF organization were computed to quantify theharmonics components of ECG activity: (1) the adaptive phase difference variance (APD) between theAF harmonic components as a measure of AF regularity, and (2) and adaptive organization index (AOI)evaluating the cyclicity of the AF oscillations. Both adaptive indices were compared to indices computedusing a time-invariant approach: (1) ECG AF cycle length (AFCL), (2) the spectrum based organizationindex (OI), and (3) the time-invariant phase difference TIPD. Long-standing persistent AF was terminatedinto sinus rhythm or atrial tachycardia in 13/17 patients during stepwise ablation, 11 during left atriumablation (left terminated patients - LT), 2 during the right atrium ablation (right terminated patients -RT), and 4 were non terminated (NT) and required electrical cardioversion. Our findings showed that LTpatients were best separated from RT/NT before ablation by the duration of sustained AF and by AOI onchest lead V1 and APD from the dorsal lead V6b as compared to ECG AFCL, OI and TIPD, respectively. Ourresults suggest that adaptive measures of AF organization computed before ablation perform better thantime-invariant based indices for identifying patients whose AF will terminate during ablation within theleft atrium. These findings are indicative of a higher baseline organization in these patients that could beused to select candidates for the termination of AF by stepwise catheter ablation.© 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Introduction: The Thalidomide-Dexamethasone (TD) regimen has provided encouraging results in relapsed MM. To improve results, bortezomib (Velcade) has been added to the combination in previous phase II studies, the so called VTD regimen. In January 2006, the European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT) and the Intergroupe Francophone du Myélome (IFM) initiated a prospective, randomized, parallel-group, open-label phase III, multicenter study, comparing VTD (arm A) with TD (arm B) for MM patients progressing or relapsing after autologous transplantation. Patients and Methods: Inclusion criteria: patients in first progression or relapse after at least one autologous transplantation, including those who had received bortezomib or thalidomide before transplant. Exclusion criteria: subjects with neuropathy above grade 1 or non secretory MM. Primary study end point was time to progression (TTP). Secondary end points included safety, response rate, progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Treatment was scheduled as follows: bortezomib 1.3 mg/m2 was given as an i.v bolus on Days 1, 4, 8 and 11 followed by a 10-Day rest period (days 12 to 21) for 8 cycles (6 months) and then on Days 1, 8, 15, 22 followed by a 20-Day rest period (days 23 to 42) for 4 cycles (6 months). In both arms, thalidomide was scheduled at 200 mg/Day orally for one year and dexamethasone 40 mg/Day orally four days every three weeks for one year. Patients reaching remission could proceed to a new stem cell harvest. However, transplantation, either autologous or allogeneic, could only be performed in patients who completed the planned one year treatment period. Response was assessed by EBMT criteria, with additional category of near complete remission (nCR). Adverse events were graded by the NCI-CTCAE, Version 3.0.The trial was based on a group sequential design, with 4 planned interim analyses and one final analysis that allowed stopping for efficacy as well as futility. The overall alpha and power were set equal to 0.025 and 0.90 respectively. The test for decision making was based on the comparison in terms of the ratio of the cause-specific hazards of relapse/progression, estimated in a Cox model stratified on the number of previous autologous transplantations. Relapse/progression cumulative incidence was estimated using the proper nonparametric estimator, the comparison was done by the Gray test. PFS and OS probabilities were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier curves, the comparison was performed by the Log-Rank test. An interim safety analysis was performed when the first hundred patients had been included. The safety committee recommended to continue the trial. Results: As of 1st July 2010, 269 patients had been enrolled in the study, 139 in France (IFM 2005-04 study), 21 in Italy, 38 in Germany, 19 in Switzerland (a SAKK study), 23 in Belgium, 8 in Austria, 8 in the Czech republic, 11 in Hungary, 1 in the UK and 1 in Israel. One hundred and sixty nine patients were males and 100 females; the median age was 61 yrs (range 29-76). One hundred and thirty six patients were randomized to receive VTD and 133 to receive TD. The current analysis is based on 246 patients (124 in arm A, 122 in arm B) included in the second interim analysis, carried out when 134 events were observed. Following this analysis, the trial was stopped because of significant superiority of VTD over TD. The remaining patients were too premature to contribute to the analysis. The number of previous autologous transplants was one in 63 vs 60 and two or more in 61 vs 62 patients in arm A vs B respectively. The median follow-up was 25 months. The median TTP was 20 months vs 15 months respectively in arm A and B, with cumulative incidence of relapse/progression at 2 years equal to 52% (95% CI: 42%-64%) vs 70% (95% CI: 61%-81%) (p=0.0004, Gray test). The same superiority of arm A was also observed when stratifying on the number of previous autologous transplantations. At 2 years, PFS was 39% (95% CI: 30%-51%) vs 23% (95% CI: 16%-34%) (A vs B, p=0.0006, Log-Rank test). OS in the first two years was comparable in the two groups. Conclusion: VTD resulted in significantly longer TTP and PFS in patients relapsing after ASCT. Analysis of response and safety data are on going and results will be presented at the meeting. Protocol EU-DRACT number: 2005-001628-35.
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Background Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a demyelinating disease of the central nervous system, which mainly affects young adults. In Finland, approximately 2500 out of 6000 MS patients have relapsing MS and are treated with disease modifying drugs (DMD): interferon- β (INF-β-1a or INF-β-1b) and glatiramer acetate (GA). Depending on the used IFN-β preparation, 2 % to 40 % of patients develop neutralizing antibodies (NAbs), which abolish the biological effects of IFN-β, leading to reduced clinical and MRI detected efficacy. According to the Finnish Current Care Guidelines and European Federation of Neurological Societis (EFNS) guidelines, it is suggested tomeasure the presence of NAbs during the first 24 months of IFN-β therapy. Aims The aim of this thesis was to measure the bioactivity of IFN-β therapy by focusing on the induction of MxA protein (myxovirus resistance protein A) and its correlation to neutralizing antibodies (NAb). A new MxA EIA assay was set up to offer an easier and rapid method for MxA protein detection in clinical practice. In addition, the tolerability and safety of GA were evaluated in patients who haddiscontinued IFN-β therapy due to side effects and lack of efficacy. Results NAbs developed towards the end of 12 months of treatment, and binding antibodies were detectable before or parallel with them. The titer of NAb correlated negatively with the amount of MxA protein and the mean values of preinjection MxA levels never returned to true baseline in NAb negative patients, but tended to drop in the NAb positive group. The test results between MxA EIA and flow cytometric analysis showed significant correlation. GA reduced the relapse rate and was a safe and well-tolerated therapy in IFN-β-intolerant MS patients. Conclusions NAbs inhibit the induction of MxA protein, which can be used as a surrogate marker of the bioactivity of IFN-β therapy. Compared to flow cytometricanalysis and NAb assay, MxA-EIA seemed to be a sensitive and more practical method in clinical use to measure the actual bioactivity of IFN-β treatment, which is of value also from a cost-effective perspective.
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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the relationship between changes in body bioelectrical impedance (BI) at 0.5, 50 and kHz and the changes in body weight, as an index of total body water changes, in acutely ill surgical patients during the rapid infusion of isotonic saline solution. DESIGN: Prospective clinical study. SETTING: Multidisciplinary surgical ICU in a university hospital. PATIENTS: Twelve male patients treated for acute surgical illness (multiple trauma n = 5, major surgery n = 7). Selection criteria: stable cardiovascular parameters, normal cardiac function, signs of hypovolemia (CVP < or = 5 mmHg, urine output < 1 ml/kg x h). INTERVENTIONS: After baseline measurements, a 60 min fluid challenge test was performed with normal saline solution, 0.25 ml/kg/min [corrected]. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Body weight (platform digital scale), total body impedance (four-surface electrode technique; measurements at 0.5, 50 and 100 kHz) and urine output. Fluid retention induced a progressive decrease in BI at 0.5, 50 and 100 kHz, but the changes were significant for BI 0.5 and BI 100 only, from 40 min after the beginning of the fluid therapy onwards. There was a significant negative correlation between changes in water retention and BI 0.5, with individual correlation coefficients ranging from -0.72 to 0.95 (p < 0.01-0.0001). The slopes of the regression lines indicated that for each kg of water change, there was a mean decrease in BI of 18 ohm, but a substantial inter-individual variability was noted. CONCLUSION: BI measured at low frequency can represent a valuable index of acute changes in body water in a group of surgical patients but not in a given individual.
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Introduction: Infection with Epstein-Barr Virus (EBV) and a lack invitamin D are emerging as the twomost significant environmental triggersof multiple sclerosis (MS). Sincewe and others have shown that CD8+T cells are important immune mediatorsof the inflammatory response inMS, we examined whether vitamin Ddirectly affects the CD8+ T cell response.We also explored if vitaminDmodulates the EBV-specific CD8+ Tcell response. Methods: PBMC of 10patients with early MS and 10 healthycontrols (HC) were stimulated eitherwith a pool of EBVimmunodominantpeptides or anti-CD3/anti-CD28 beads.Cytokine secretion was assessed witha Cytometric Beads Array (CBA),ELISA and intracellular cytokinestaining. To examine whether vitaminD could directly modulate CD8+ Tcell immune responses, we depletedCD4+ T cells using a negative selection.Results: We found that vitaminD-treated PBMC stimulated eitherwith the EBV peptide pool or anti-CD3/anti-CD28 beads adopted ananti-inflammatory profile: significantdecrease in IFN-and TNF secretion,contrasting with a significant increasein IL-5 and TGF-secretion. At baseline,but also after vitamin D stimulation,IL-5 was significantly less producedby stimulated CD8+ T cells ofearly MS than HC. Finally, using depletionof CD4+ T cells, we couldshow that vitaminDcan directlymodulateCD8+ T cells. Discussion: Ourdata suggest that vitaminDconfers ananti-inflammatory profile to CD8+ Tcells, without the help of CD4+ Tcells. Even if vitamin D has a significanteffect on CD8+ T cells of earlyMS patients, this "rescuing" effect isof smaller magnitude than in HC subjects.Finally, vitamin D does influencethe CD8+ T cell response toEBV in early MS patients, suggestingthat there is an interplay betweenthese two major environmental factorsof MS.
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Purpose Multiple organization indices (OIs) have been used to predict the outcome of stepwise catheter ablation (step-CA) in long-standing persistent AF (pers-AF), however with limited success. Our study aims at developing innovative OIs from baseline (BL, before ablation) ECG in order to predict the outcome of step-CA. Methods Fourteen consecutive patients (pts) (60±5 y, AF duration 21±9 m) underwent a step-CA consisting in pulmonary veins isolation, left atrial (LA) defragmentation and linear ablations, and right atrial (RA) ablations if non terminated. Chest lead V6 was placed in the back (V6b). After QRST cancellation from chest leads V1 to V6b, two OIs were computed to quantify the harmonic components of ECG atrial activity: 1) phase difference variance (PD) between the AF harmonic components as a measure of AF regularity, and 2) adaptive OI (AOI) evaluating the time evolution of the AF harmonic components. Both indices were compared to classical ones: a spectrum-based OI (SOI) and ECG AF cycle length (AFCL). Results Pers-AF was terminated into sinus rhythm or atrial tachycardia in 10/14 pts during step-CA, 8 during LA (LT), 2 during RA (RT) ablation, and 4 were non terminated (NT). The figure shows that LT was best separated from RT/NT before ablation by AOI computed on lead V1 (A) and PD from lead V6b (B) as compared to SOI and AFCL respectively. Conclusion Our results suggest that adaptive OIs computed before ablation perform better than classical OIs for separating LT from RT/NT pts. These findings are indicative of a higher baseline organization in LT pts that could be used to select candidates for the restoration of sinus rhythm by step-CA.
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The present research project was designed to identify the typical Iowa material input values that are required by the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) for the Level 3 concrete pavement design. It was also designed to investigate the existing equations that might be used to predict Iowa pavement concrete for the Level 2 pavement design. In this project, over 20,000 data were collected from the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) and other sources. These data, most of which were concrete compressive strength, slump, air content, and unit weight data, were synthesized and their statistical parameters (such as the mean values and standard variations) were analyzed. Based on the analyses, the typical input values of Iowa pavement concrete, such as 28-day compressive strength (f’c), splitting tensile strength (fsp), elastic modulus (Ec), and modulus of rupture (MOR), were evaluated. The study indicates that the 28-day MOR of Iowa concrete is 646 + 51 psi, very close to the MEPDG default value (650 psi). The 28-day Ec of Iowa concrete (based only on two available data of the Iowa Curling and Warping project) is 4.82 + 0.28x106 psi, which is quite different from the MEPDG default value (3.93 x106 psi); therefore, the researchers recommend re-evaluating after more Iowa test data become available. The drying shrinkage (εc) of a typical Iowa concrete (C-3WR-C20 mix) was tested at Concrete Technology Laboratory (CTL). The test results show that the ultimate shrinkage of the concrete is about 454 microstrain and the time for the concrete to reach 50% of ultimate shrinkage is at 32 days; both of these values are very close to the MEPDG default values. The comparison of the Iowa test data and the MEPDG default values, as well as the recommendations on the input values to be used in MEPDG for Iowa PCC pavement design, are summarized in Table 20 of this report. The available equations for predicting the above-mentioned concrete properties were also assembled. The validity of these equations for Iowa concrete materials was examined. Multiple-parameters nonlinear regression analyses, along with the artificial neural network (ANN) method, were employed to investigate the relationships among Iowa concrete material properties and to modify the existing equations so as to be suitable for Iowa concrete materials. However, due to lack of necessary data sets, the relationships between Iowa concrete properties were established based on the limited data from CP Tech Center’s projects and ISU classes only. The researchers suggest that the resulting relationships be used by Iowa pavement design engineers as references only. The present study furthermore indicates that appropriately documenting concrete properties, including flexural strength, elastic modulus, and information on concrete mix design, is essential for updating the typical Iowa material input values and providing rational prediction equations for concrete pavement design in the future.
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We explored the washout period of creatine (Cr) after repeated ingestions of high doses of exogenous Cr. Ten athletes ingested daily, in a randomized double-blind study design, 30 g of exoge- nous Cr (n = 5, Cr-group) or a placebo (n = 5, Pl-group). Serum and urine samples were collected 1) before supplementation (BEFO- RE), 2) after one week Cr supplementation (AFTER), and 3) one week later without supplementation (LATER). The Cr and crea- tinine (Crn) concentrations in serum (sCr, sCrn) and in multiple spots urine (uCr, uCrn) were measured. We observed a significant rise (p < 0.01) in sCr, uCr and sCrn between BEFORE and AFTER supplementation in Cr-group, as well as a significant difference between Cr-group and Pl-group. Body weight increased signifi- cantly (+1.5 kg), but relative body fat (%fat) was unchanged. After the washout period in LATER Cr-group, sCr and uCr decreased to low residual values. No loss of body weight occurred during thisperiod. In contrast, sCrn and uCrn returned to baseline values. In conclusion, regular uptake of high doses of exogenous Cr affects both Cr and Crn concentrations in serum (sCr: 14 folds; sCrn: 1.2 folds) and urine (uCr: 140 folds; uCrn: 1.5 folds). An abuse of Cr is therefore mostly spilled over in urine. Surprise drug tests, such as doping controls, happening during the period of Cr supplementa- tion can reveal an important increase in Cr and Crn concentrations, although subjects stopped suddenly Cr loading. The discernible effect of Cr supplementation on these values disappeared within one week.
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OBJECTIVE(S): To investigate the relationship between detection of HIV drug resistance by 2 years from starting antiretroviral therapy and the subsequent risk of progression to AIDS and death. DESIGN: Virological failure was defined as experiencing two consecutive viral loads of more than 400 copies/ml in the time window between 0.5 and 2 years from starting antiretroviral therapy (baseline). Patients were grouped according to evidence of virological failure and whether there was detection of the International AIDS Society resistance mutations to one, two or three drug classes in the time window. METHODS: Standard survival analysis using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression model with time-fixed covariates defined at baseline was employed. RESULTS: We studied 8229 patients in EuroSIDA who started antiretroviral therapy and who had at least 2 years of clinical follow-up. We observed 829 AIDS events and 571 deaths during 38,814 person-years of follow-up resulting in an overall incidence of new AIDS and death of 3.6 per 100 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval (CI):3.4-3.8]. By 96 months from baseline, the proportion of patients with a new AIDS diagnosis or death was 20.3% (95% CI:17.7-22.9) in patients with no evidence of virological failure and 53% (39.3-66.7) in those with virological failure and mutations to three drug classes (P = 0.0001). An almost two-fold difference in risk was confirmed in the multivariable analysis (adjusted relative hazard = 1.8, 95% CI:1.2-2.7, P = 0.005). CONCLUSION: Although this study shows an association between the detection of resistance at failure and risk of clinical progression, further research is needed to clarify whether resistance reflects poor adherence or directly increases the risk of clinical events via exhaustion of drug options.
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Drainage-basin and channel-geometry multiple-regression equations are presented for estimating design-flood discharges having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years at stream sites on rural, unregulated streams in Iowa. Design-flood discharge estimates determined by Pearson Type-III analyses using data collected through the 1990 water year are reported for the 188 streamflow-gaging stations used in either the drainage-basin or channel-geometry regression analyses. Ordinary least-squares multiple-regression techniques were used to identify selected drainage-basin and channel-geometry regions. Weighted least-squares multiple-regression techniques, which account for differences in the variance of flows at different gaging stations and for variable lengths in station records, were used to estimate the regression parameters. Statewide drainage-basin equations were developed from analyses of 164 streamflow-gaging stations. Drainage-basin characteristics were quantified using a geographic-information-system (GIS) procedure to process topographic maps and digital cartographic data. The significant characteristics identified for the drainage-basin equations included contributing drainage area, relative relief, drainage frequency, and 2-year, 24-hour precipitation intensity. The average standard errors of prediction for the drainage-basin equations ranged from 38.6% to 50.2%. The GIS procedure expanded the capability to quantitatively relate drainage-basin characteristics to the magnitude and frequency of floods for stream sites in Iowa and provides a flood-estimation method that is independent of hydrologic regionalization. Statewide and regional channel-geometry regression equations were developed from analyses of 157 streamflow-gaging stations. Channel-geometry characteristics were measured on site and on topographic maps. Statewide and regional channel-geometry regression equations that are dependent on whether a stream has been channelized were developed on the basis of bankfull and active-channel characteristics. The significant channel-geometry characteristics identified for the statewide and regional regression equations included bankfull width and bankfull depth for natural channels unaffected by channelization, and active-channel width for stabilized channels affected by channelization. The average standard errors of prediction ranged from 41.0% to 68.4% for the statewide channel-geometry equations and from 30.3% to 70.0% for the regional channel-geometry equations. Procedures provided for applying the drainage-basin and channel-geometry regression equations depend on whether the design-flood discharge estimate is for a site on an ungaged stream, an ungaged site on a gaged stream, or a gaged site. When both a drainage-basin and a channel-geometry regression-equation estimate are available for a stream site, a procedure is presented for determining a weighted average of the two flood estimates.