What drives invasibility? A multi-model inference test and spatial modelling of alien plant species richness patterns in northern Portugal

Understanding and anticipating biological invasions can focus either on traits that favour species invasiveness or on features of the receiving communities, habitats or landscapes that promote their invasibility. Here, we address invasibility at the regional scale, testing whether some habitats and landscapes are more invasible than others by fitting models that relate alien plant species richness to various environmental predictors. We use a multi-model information-theoretic approach to assess invasibility by modelling spatial and ecological patterns of alien invasion in landscape mosaics and testing competing hypotheses of environmental factors that may control invasibility. Because invasibility may be mediated by particular characteristics of invasiveness, we classified alien species according to their C-S-R plant strategies. We illustrate this approach with a set of 86 alien species in Northern Portugal. We first focus on predictors influencing species richness and expressing invasibility and then evaluate whether distinct plant strategies respond to the same or different groups of environmental predictors. We confirmed climate as a primary determinant of alien invasions and as a primary environmental gradient determining landscape invasibility. The effects of secondary gradients were detected only when the area was sub-sampled according to predictions based on the primary gradient. Then, multiple predictor types influenced patterns of alien species richness, with some types (landscape composition, topography and fire regime) prevailing over others. Alien species richness responded most strongly to extreme land management regimes, suggesting that intermediate disturbance induces biotic resistance by favouring native species richness. Land-use intensification facilitated alien invasion, whereas conservation areas hosted few invaders, highlighting the importance of ecosystem stability in preventing invasions. Plants with different strategies exhibited different responses to environmental gradients, particularly when the variations of the primary gradient were narrowed by sub-sampling. Such differential responses of plant strategies suggest using distinct control and eradication approaches for different areas and alien plant groups.

Using spatially distributed parameters and multi-response objective functions to solve parameterization of complex applications of semi-distributed hydrological models

Application of semi-distributed hydrological models to large, heterogeneous watersheds deals with several problems. On one hand, the spatial and temporal variability in catchment features should be adequately represented in the model parameterization, while maintaining the model complexity in an acceptable level to take advantage of state-of-the-art calibration techniques. On the other hand, model complexity enhances uncertainty in adjusted model parameter values, therefore increasing uncertainty in the water routing across the watershed. This is critical for water quality applications, where not only streamflow, but also a reliable estimation of the surface versus subsurface contributions to the runoff is needed. In this study, we show how a regularized inversion procedure combined with a multiobjective function calibration strategy successfully solves the parameterization of a complex application of a water quality-oriented hydrological model. The final value of several optimized parameters showed significant and consistentdifferences across geological and landscape features. Although the number of optimized parameters was significantly increased by the spatial and temporal discretization of adjustable parameters, the uncertainty in water routing results remained at reasonable values. In addition, a stepwise numerical analysis showed that the effects on calibration performance due to inclusion of different data types in the objective function could be inextricably linked. Thus caution should be taken when adding or removing data from an aggregated objective function.

Statistical assessment of dataset shift and model portability in multi-angle in-track image acquisitions

In this study we propose an evaluation of the angular effects altering the spectral response of the land-cover over multi-angle remote sensing image acquisitions. The shift in the statistical distribution of the pixels observed in an in-track sequence of WorldView-2 images is analyzed by means of a kernel-based measure of distance between probability distributions. Afterwards, the portability of supervised classifiers across the sequence is investigated by looking at the evolution of the classification accuracy with respect to the changing observation angle. In this context, the efficiency of various physically and statistically based preprocessing methods in obtaining angle-invariant data spaces is compared and possible synergies are discussed.

A Multi-Project Scheduling Procedure for Transportation Projects, Part II, HR-339, 1994

The Iowa Department of Transportation (IDOT) has been requiring Critical Path Method (CPM) schedules on some larger or more schedule sensitive projects. The Office of Construction's expectations for enhanced project control and improved communication of project objectives have not been fully met by the use of CPM. Recognizing that the current procedures might not be adequate for all projects, IDOT sponsored a research project to explore the state-of-the-art in transportation scheduling and identify opportunities for improvement. The first phase of this project identified a technique known as the Linear Scheduling Method (LSM) as an alternative to CPM on certain highway construction projects. LSM graphically displays the construction process with respect to the location and the time in which each activity occurs. The current phase of this project was implemented to allow the research team the opportunity to evaluate LSM on all small groups of diverse projects. Unlike the first phase of the project, the research team was closely involved in the project from early in the planning phase throughout the completion of the projects. The research strongly suggests that the linear scheduling technique has great potential as a project management tool for both contractors and IDOT personnel. However, before this technique can become a viable weapon in the project management arsenal, a software application needs to be developed. This application should bring to linear scheduling a degree of functionality as rich and as comprehensive as that found in microcomputer based CPM software on the market today. The research team recommends that the IDOT extend this research effort to include the development of a linear scheduling application.

Effects of anomalous propagation conditions on weather radar observations

In this chapter our objective is to provide an overview of the effects of anomalous propagation conditions on weather radar observations, based mostly on studies performed by the authors during the last decade, summarizing results from recent publications, presentations, or unpublished material. We believe this chapter may be useful as an introductory text for graduate students, or researchers and practitioners dealing with this topic. Throughout the text a spherical symmetric atmosphere is assumed and the focus is on the occurrence of ground and sea clutter and subsequent problems for weather radar applications. Other related topics such as long-path, over-the-horizon propagation and detection of radar targets (either clutter or weather systems) at long ranges is not considered here; however readers should be aware of the potential problems these phenomena may have as range aliasing may cause these echoes appear nearer than they are ¿ for more details see the discussion about second trip echoes by Zrnic, this volume.

Use of nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors and risk of myocardial infarction in HIV-infected patients enrolled in the D:A:D study: a multi-cohort collaboration.

BACKGROUND: Whether nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors increase the risk of myocardial infarction in HIV-infected individuals is unclear. Our aim was to explore whether exposure to such drugs was associated with an excess risk of myocardial infarction in a large, prospective observational cohort of HIV-infected patients. METHODS: We used Poisson regression models to quantify the relation between cumulative, recent (currently or within the preceding 6 months), and past use of zidovudine, didanosine, stavudine, lamivudine, and abacavir and development of myocardial infarction in 33 347 patients enrolled in the D:A:D study. We adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors that are unlikely to be affected by antiretroviral therapy, cohort, calendar year, and use of other antiretrovirals. FINDINGS: Over 157,912 person-years, 517 patients had a myocardial infarction. We found no associations between the rate of myocardial infarction and cumulative or recent use of zidovudine, stavudine, or lamivudine. By contrast, recent-but not cumulative-use of abacavir or didanosine was associated with an increased rate of myocardial infarction (compared with those with no recent use of the drugs, relative rate 1.90, 95% CI 1.47-2.45 [p=0.0001] with abacavir and 1.49, 1.14-1.95 [p=0.003] with didanosine); rates were not significantly increased in those who stopped these drugs more than 6 months previously compared with those who had never received these drugs. After adjustment for predicted 10-year risk of coronary heart disease, recent use of both didanosine and abacavir remained associated with increased rates of myocardial infarction (1.49, 1.14-1.95 [p=0.004] with didanosine; 1.89, 1.47-2.45 [p=0.0001] with abacavir). INTERPRETATION: There exists an increased risk of myocardial infarction in patients exposed to abacavir and didanosine within the preceding 6 months. The excess risk does not seem to be explained by underlying established cardiovascular risk factors and was not present beyond 6 months after drug cessation.

Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location Europe. Methods We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

Insights into the Design and Characteristics of the Sedimentation Process at Multi-Barrel Culverts in Iowa, TR-596, 2010

The present study is an integral part of a broader study focused on the design and implementation of self-cleaning culverts, i.e., configurations that prevent the formation of sediment deposits after culvert construction or cleaning. Sediment deposition at culverts is influenced by many factors, including the size and characteristics of material of which the channel is composed, the hydraulic characteristics generated under different hydrology events, the culvert geometry design, channel transition design, and the vegetation around the channel. The multitude of combinations produced by this set of variables makes the investigation of practical situations a complex undertaking. In addition to the considerations above, the field and analytical observations have revealed flow complexities affecting the flow and sediment transport through culverts that further increase the dimensions of the investigation. The flow complexities investigated in this study entail: flow non-uniformity in the areas of transition to and from the culvert, flow unsteadiness due to the flood wave propagation through the channel, and the asynchronous correlation between the flow and sediment hydrographs resulting from storm events. To date, the literature contains no systematic studies on sediment transport through multi-box culverts or investigations on the adverse effects of sediment deposition at culverts. Moreover, there is limited knowledge about the non-uniform, unsteady sediment transport in channels of variable geometry. Furthermore, there are few readily useable (inexpensive and practical) numerical models that can reliably simulate flow and sediment transport in such complex situations. Given the current state of knowledge, the main goal of the present study is to investigate the above flow complexities in order to provide the needed insights for a series of ongoing culvert studies. The research was phased so that field observations were conducted first to understand the culvert behavior in Iowa landscape. Modeling through complementary hydraulic model and numerical experiments was subsequently carried out to gain the practical knowledge for the development of the self-cleaning culvert designs.

A Multi-Project Scheduling Procedure for Transportation Projects, Final Report, HR-339, 1993

This report proposes, that for certain types of highway construction projects undertaken by the Iowa Department of Transportation, a scheduling technique commonly referred to as linear scheduling may be more effective than the Critical Path Method scheduling technique that is currently being used. The types of projects that appear to be good candidates for the technique are those projects that have a strong linear orientation. Like a bar chart, this technique shows when an activity is scheduled to occur and like a CPM schedule it shows the sequence in which activities are expected to occur. During the 1992 construction season, the authors worked with an inlay project on Interstate 29 to demonstrate the linear scheduling technique to the Construction Office. The as-planned schedule was developed from the CPM schedule that the contractor had developed for the project. Therefore, this schedule represents what a linear representation of a CPM schedule would look like, and not necessarily what a true linear schedule would look like if it had been the only scheduling technique applied to the project. There is a need to expand the current repertoire of scheduling techniques to address those projects for which the bar chart and CPM may not be appropriate either because of the lack of control information or due to overly complex process for the actual project characteristics. The scheduling approaches used today on transportation projects have many shortcomings for properly modeling the real world constraints and conditions which are encountered. Linear project's predilection for activities with variable production rates, a concept very difficult to handle with the CPM, is easily handled and visualized with the linear technique. It is recommended that work proceed with the refinement of the method of linear scheduling described above and the development of a microcomputer based system for use by the Iowa Department of Transportation and contractors for its implementation. The system will be designed to provide the information needed to adjust schedules in a rational understandable method for monitoring progress on the projects and alerting Iowa Department of Transportation personnel when the contractor is deviating from the plan.

Predictors for the emergence of the 2 multi-nucleoside/nucleotide resistance mutations 69 insertion and Q151M and their impact on clinical outcome in the Swiss HIV cohort study.

The 69 insertion and Q151M mutations are multi-nucleoside/nucleotide resistance mutations (MNR). The prevalence among 4078 antiretroviral therapy (ART)-experienced individuals was <1.3%. Combined ART fully prevented MNR in subtype B infections. Case-control studies were performed to identify risk factors. Control subjects were patients with ≥ 3 thymidine-analogue mutations. The 69 insertion study (27 control subjects, 14 case patients) identified didanosine exposure as a risk (odds ratio, 5.0 per year; P = .019), whereas the Q151M study (which included 44 control subjects and 25 case patients) detected no associations. Following detection, individuals with Q151M tended to have lower suppression rates and higher mortality rates, relative to control subjects. Additional studies are needed to verify these findings in non-subtype B infections.

Safety of intramuscular influenza vaccine in patients receiving oral anticoagulation therapy: a single blinded multi-centre randomized controlled clinical trial

Influenza vaccines are recommended for administration by the intramuscular route. However, many physicians use the subcutaneous route for patients receiving an oral anticoagulant because this route is thought to induce fewer hemorrhagic side effects. Our aim is to assess the safety of intramuscular administration of influenza vaccine in patients on oral anticoagulation therapy. Methods: Design: Randomised, controlled, single blinded, multi-centre clinical trial. Setting: 4 primary care practices in Barcelona, Spain. Participants: 229 patients on oral anticoagulation therapy eligible for influenza vaccine during the 20032004 season. Interventions: intramuscular administration of influença vaccine in the experimental group (129 patients) compared to subcutaneous administration in the control group (100 patients). Primary outcome: change in the circumference of the arm at the site of injection at 24 hours. Secondary outcomes: appearance of local reactions and pain at 24 hours and at 10 days; change in INR (International Normalized Ratio) at 24 hours and at 10 days. Analysis was by intention to treat using the 95% confidence intervals of the proportions or mean differences. Results: Baseline variables in the two groups were similar. No major side effects or major haemorrhage during the follow-up period were reported. No significant differences were observed in the primary outcome between the two groups. The appearance of local adverse reactions was more frequent in the subcutaneous administration group (37,4% vs. 17,4%, 95% confidence interval of the difference 8,2% to 31,8%). Conclusion: This study shows that the intramuscular administration route of influenza vaccine in patients on anticoagulant therapy does not have more side effects than the subcutaneous administration route

A modified structural stress method for fatigue assessment of welded structures

Fatigue life assessment of weldedstructures is commonly based on the nominal stress method, but more flexible and accurate methods have been introduced. In general, the assessment accuracy is improved as more localized information about the weld is incorporated. The structural hot spot stress method includes the influence of macro geometric effects and structural discontinuities on the design stress but excludes the local features of the weld. In this thesis, the limitations of the structural hot spot stress method are discussed and a modified structural stress method with improved accuracy is developed and verified for selected welded details. The fatigue life of structures in the as-welded state consists mainly of crack growth from pre-existing cracks or defects. Crack growth rate depends on crack geometry and the stress state on the crack face plane. This means that the stress level and shape of the stress distribution in the assumed crack path governs thetotal fatigue life. In many structural details the stress distribution is similar and adequate fatigue life estimates can be obtained just by adjusting the stress level based on a single stress value, i.e., the structural hot spot stress. There are, however, cases for which the structural stress approach is less appropriate because the stress distribution differs significantly from the more common cases. Plate edge attachments and plates on elastic foundations are some examples of structures with this type of stress distribution. The importance of fillet weld size and weld load variation on the stress distribution is another central topic in this thesis. Structural hot spot stress determination is generally based on a procedure that involves extrapolation of plate surface stresses. Other possibilities for determining the structural hot spot stress is to extrapolate stresses through the thickness at the weld toe or to use Dong's method which includes through-thickness extrapolation at some distance from the weld toe. Both of these latter methods are less sensitive to the FE mesh used. Structural stress based on surface extrapolation is sensitive to the extrapolation points selected and to the FE mesh used near these points. Rules for proper meshing, however, are well defined and not difficult to apply. To improve the accuracy of the traditional structural hot spot stress, a multi-linear stress distribution is introduced. The magnitude of the weld toe stress after linearization is dependent on the weld size, weld load and plate thickness. Simple equations have been derived by comparing assessment results based on the local linear stress distribution and LEFM based calculations. The proposed method is called the modified structural stress method (MSHS) since the structural hot spot stress (SHS) value is corrected using information on weld size andweld load. The correction procedure is verified using fatigue test results found in the literature. Also, a test case was conducted comparing the proposed method with other local fatigue assessment methods.

Identifying the Role of Final Consumption in Structural Path Analysis: An Application to Water Uses

The complexity of the connexions within an economic system can only be reliably reflected in academic research if powerful methods are used. Researchers have used Structural Path Analysis (SPA) to capture not only the linkages within the production system but also the propagation of the effects into different channels of impacts. However, the SPA literature has restricted itself to showing the relations among sectors of production, while the connections between these sectors and final consumption have attracted little attention. In order to consider the complete set of channels involved, in this paper we propose a structural path method that endogenously incorporates not only sectors of production but also the final consumption of the economy. The empirical application comprises water usages, and analyses the dissemination of exogenous impacts into various channels of water consumption. The results show that the responsibility for water stress is imputed to different sectors and depends on the hypothesis used for the role played by final consumption in the model. This highlights the importance of consumers’ decisions in the determination of ecological impacts. Keywords: Input-Output Analysis, Structural Path Analysis, Final Consumption, Water uses.

The anticancer drug metabolites endoxifen and 4-hydroxy-tamoxifen induce toxic effects on Daphnia pulex in a two-generation study.

Although pharmaceutical metabolites are found in the aquatic environment, their toxicity on living organisms is poorly studied in general. Endoxifen and 4-hydroxy-tamoxifen (4OHTam) are two metabolites of the widely used anticancer drug tamoxifen for the prevention and treatment of breast cancers. Both metabolites have a high pharmacological potency in vertebrates, attributing prodrug characteristics to tamoxifen. Tamoxifen and its metabolites are body-excreted by patients, and the parent compound is found in sewage treatment plan effluents and natural waters. The toxicity of these potent metabolites on non-target aquatic species is unknown, which forces environmental risk assessors to predict their toxicity on aquatic species using knowledge on the parent compounds. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess the sensitivity of two generations of the freshwater microcrustacean Daphnia pulex towards 4OHTam and endoxifen. Two chronic tests of 4OHTam and endoxifen were run in parallel and several endpoints were assessed. The results show that the metabolites 4OHTam and endoxifen induced reproductive and survival effects. For both metabolites, the sensitivity of D. pulex increased in the second generation. The intrinsic rate of natural increase (r) decreased with increasing 4OHTam and endoxifen concentrations. The No-Observed Effect Concentrations (NOECs) calculated for the reproduction of the second generation exposed to 4OHTam and endoxifen were <1.8 and 4.3μg/L, respectively, whereas the NOECs that were calculated for the intrinsic rate of natural increase were <1.8 and 0.4μg/L, respectively. Our study raises questions about prodrug and active metabolites in environmental toxicology assessments of pharmaceuticals. Our findings also emphasize the importance of performing long-term experiments and considering multi-endpoints instead of the standard reproduction outcome.

Tuning Performance of Multi-threaded programs

Diplomityö tarkastelee säikeistettyä ohjelmointia rinnakkaisohjelmoinnin ylemmällä hierarkiatasolla tarkastellen erityisesti hypersäikeistysteknologiaa. Työssä tarkastellaan hypersäikeistyksen hyviä ja huonoja puolia sekä sen vaikutuksia rinnakkaisalgoritmeihin. Työn tavoitteena oli ymmärtää Intel Pentium 4 prosessorin hypersäikeistyksen toteutus ja mahdollistaa sen hyödyntäminen, missä se tuo suorituskyvyllistä etua. Työssä kerättiin ja analysoitiin suorituskykytietoa ajamalla suuri joukko suorituskykytestejä eri olosuhteissa (muistin käsittely, kääntäjän asetukset, ympäristömuuttujat...). Työssä tarkasteltiin kahdentyyppisiä algoritmeja: matriisioperaatioita ja lajittelua. Näissä sovelluksissa on säännöllinen muistinkäyttökuvio, mikä on kaksiteräinen miekka. Se on etu aritmeettis-loogisissa prosessoinnissa, mutta toisaalta huonontaa muistin suorituskykyä. Syynä siihen on nykyaikaisten prosessorien erittäin hyvä raaka suorituskyky säännöllistä dataa käsiteltäessä, mutta muistiarkkitehtuuria rajoittaa välimuistien koko ja useat puskurit. Kun ongelman koko ylittää tietyn rajan, todellinen suorituskyky voi pudota murto-osaan huippusuorituskyvystä.