Unpacking Japan's 21st century "National Conversation" : images of the future beyond the iron cage of the "Catch Up" model

How does the image of the future operate upon history, and upon national and individual identities? To what extent are possible futures colonized by the image? What are the un-said futurecratic discourses that underlie the image of the future? Such questions inspired the examination of Japan’s futures images in this thesis. The theoretical point of departure for this examination is Polak’s (1973) seminal research into the theory of the ‘image of the future’ and seven contemporary Japanese texts which offer various alternative images for Japan’s futures, selected as representative of a ‘national conversation’ about the futures of that nation. These seven images of the future are: 1. Report of the Prime Minister’s Commission on Japan’s Goals in the 21st Century—The Frontier Within: Individual Empowerment and Better Governance in the New Millennium, compiled by a committee headed by Japan’s preeminent Jungian psychologist Kawai Hayao (1928-2007); 2. Slow Is Beautiful—a publication by Tsuji Shinichi, in which he re-images Japan as a culture represented by the metaphor of the sloth, concerned with slow and quality-oriented livingry as a preferred image of the future to Japan’s current post-bubble cult of speed and economic efficiency; 3. MuRatopia is an image of the future in the form of a microcosmic prototype community and on-going project based on the historically significant island of Awaji, and established by Japanese economist and futures thinker Yamaguchi Kaoru; 4. F.U.C.K, I Love Japan, by author Tanja Yujiro provides this seven text image of the future line-up with a youth oriented sub-culture perspective on that nation’s futures; 5. IMAGINATION / CREATION—a compilation of round table discussions about Japan’s futures seen from the point of view of Japan’s creative vanguard; 6. Visionary People in a Visionless Country: 21 Earth Connecting Human Stories is a collection of twenty one essays compiled by Denmark born Tokyo resident Peter David Pedersen; and, 7. EXODUS to the Land of Hope, authored by Murakami Ryu, one of Japan’s most prolific and influential writers, this novel suggests a future scenario portraying a massive exodus of Japan’s youth, who, literate with state-of-the-art information and communication technologies (ICTs) move en masse to Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido to launch a cyber-revolution from the peripheries. The thesis employs a Futures Triangle Analysis (FTA) as the macro organizing framework and as such examines both pushes of the present and weights from the past before moving to focus on the pulls to the future represented by the seven texts mentioned above. Inayatullah’s (1999) Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) is the analytical framework used in examining the texts. Poststructuralist concepts derived primarily from the work of Michel Foucault are a particular (but not exclusive) reference point for the analytical approach it encompasses. The research questions which reflect the triangulated analytic matrix are: 1. What are the pushes—in terms of current trends—that are affecting Japan’s futures? 2. What are the historical and cultural weights that influence Japan’s futures? 3. What are the emerging transformative Japanese images of the future discourses, as embodied in actual texts, and what potential do they offer for transformative change in Japan? Research questions one and two are discussed in Chapter five and research question three is discussed in Chapter six. The first two research questions should be considered preliminary. The weights outlined in Chapter five indicate that the forces working against change in Japan are formidable, structurally deep-rooted, wide-spread, and under-recognized as change-adverse. Findings and analyses of the push dimension reveal strong forces towards a potentially very different type of Japan. However it is the seven contemporary Japanese images of the future, from which there is hope for transformative potential, which form the analytical heart of the thesis. In analyzing these texts the thesis establishes the richness of Japan’s images of the future and, as such, demonstrates the robustness of Japan’s stance vis-à-vis the problem of a perceived map-less and model-less future for Japan. Frontier is a useful image of the future, whose hybrid textuality, consisting of government, business, academia, and creative minority perspectives, demonstrates the earnestness of Japan’s leaders in favour of the creation of innovative futures for that nation. Slow is powerful in its aim to reconceptualize Japan’s philosophies of temporality, and build a new kind of nation founded on the principles of a human-oriented and expanded vision of economy based around the core metaphor of slowness culture. However its viability in Japan, with its post-Meiji historical pushes to an increasingly speed-obsessed social construction of reality, could render it impotent. MuRatopia is compelling in its creative hybridity indicative of an advanced IT society, set in a modern day utopian space based upon principles of a high communicative social paradigm, and sustainability. IMAGINATION / CREATION is less the plan than the platform for a new discussion on Japan’s transformation from an econo-centric social framework to a new Creative Age. It accords with emerging discourses from the Creative Industries, which would re-conceive of Japan as a leading maker of meaning, rather than as the so-called guzu, a term referred to in the book meaning ‘laggard’. In total, Love Japan is still the most idiosyncratic of all the images of the future discussed. Its communication style, which appeals to Japan’s youth cohort, establishes it as a potentially formidable change agent in a competitive market of futures images. Visionary People is a compelling image for its revolutionary and subversive stance against Japan’s vision-less political leadership, showing that it is the people, not the futures-making elite or aristocracy who must take the lead and create a new vanguard for the nation. Finally, Murakami’s Exodus cannot be ruled out as a compelling image of the future. Sharing the appeal of Tanja’s Love Japan to an increasingly disenfranchised youth, Exodus portrays a near-term future that is achievable in the here and now, by Japan’s teenagers, using information and communications technologies (ICTs) to subvert leadership, and create utopianist communities based on alternative social principles. The principal contribution from this investigation in terms of theory belongs to that of developing the Japanese image of the future. In this respect, the literature reviews represent a significant compilation, specifically about Japanese futures thinking, the Japanese image of the future, and the Japanese utopia. Though not exhaustive, this compilation will hopefully serve as a useful starting point for future research, not only for the Japanese image of the future, but also for all image of the future research. Many of the sources are in Japanese and their English summations are an added reason to respect this achievement. Secondly, the seven images of the future analysed in Chapter six represent the first time that Japanese image of the future texts have been systematically organized and analysed. Their translation from Japanese to English can be claimed as a significant secondary contribution. What is more, they have been analysed according to current futures methodologies that reveal a layeredness, depth, and overall richness existing in Japanese futures images. Revealing this image-richness has been one of the most significant findings of this investigation, suggesting that there is fertile research to be found from this still under-explored field, whose implications go beyond domestic Japanese concerns, and may offer fertile material for futures thinkers and researchers, Japanologists, social planners, and policy makers.

Consumers’ intentions to adopt 3G in regional cities in China : a comparative study

Rapid mobile technological evolution and the large economic stake in commercial development of mobile technological innovation make it necessary to understand consumers' motivations towards the latest advanced and updated technologies and services. 3G (the third generation of mobile communication technology) recently started its commercial development in the world‘s largest mobile communication market, China, after being delayed for a few years. Although China fell behind in commercially developing 3G, it is difficult to ignore studying this area, given the size of the market and promising future developments. This market deserves focused research attention, especially in terms of consumer behaviour towards the adoption of mobile technological innovation. Thus, the program of research in this thesis was designed to investigate how Chinese consumers respond to the use of this newly launched mobile technological innovation, with a focus on what factors affect their 3G adoption intentions. It aimed to yield important insights into Chinese consumers‘ innovation adoption behaviours and to contribute to marketing and innovation adoption research. Furthermore, it has been documented that Chinese consumers vary widely between regions in dialect, lifestyle, culture, purchasing power and consumption attitudes. Based on economic development and local culture, China can be divided geographically into distinctive regional consumer markets. Consequently, the results of consumer behaviour research in one region may not necessarily be extrapolated to other regions. In order to better understand Chinese consumers, the disparities between regions should not be overlooked. Therefore, another objective of this program of research was to examine regional variances in consumers' innovation adoption, specifically to identify the similarities and differences in factors influencing 3G adoption, contributing to intra-cultural studies. An extensive literature review identified two gaps: current China-based innovation adoption research studies are limited in providing adequate prediction and explanation of Chinese consumers' intentions to adopt 3G; and there was limited knowledge about the differences between regional Chinese consumers in innovation adoption. Two research questions therefore were developed to address these gaps: 1) What factors influence Chinese consumers' intentions to adopt 3G? 2) How do Chinese consumers differ between regional markets in the relative influence of the factors in determining their intentions to adopt 3G? In accordance with postpositivist research philosophy, two studies were designed to answer the research questions, using mixed methods. To meet the research objectives, the two studies were both conducted in three regional cities, namely Beijing, Shanghai and Wuhan, centred in the three regions of North China, East China and Central China respectively, with sufficient cultural and economical regional variances. Study One was an exploratory study with qualitative research methods. It involved 45 in-depth interviews in the three research cities to gain rich insights into the research context from natural settings. Eight important concepts related to 3G adoption were generated from analysis of the interview data, namely utilitarian expectation, hedonic expectation, status gains, status loss avoidance, normative influence, external influence, cost and quality concern. The concepts of social loss avoidance and quality concern were two unique findings, whereas the other concepts were similar to the findings in Western innovation adoption studies. Moreover, variances in 3G adoption between three groups of regional consumers were also identified, focusing on the perceptions of two concepts, namely status gains and normative influence. The conceptual research model was then developed incorporating the eight concepts plus the dependent variable of adoption intention. The hypothesized relationships between the nine constructs and hypotheses about the differences between regional consumers in 3G adoption were informed by the findings of Study One and the literature reviewed. Study Two was a quantitative study involving a web-based survey and statistical analysis procedure. The web-based survey attracted 800 residents from the three research cities, 270 from Beijing, 265 from Shanghai and 265 from Wuhan. They comprised three research samples for this study and consequently three sets of data were obtained. The data was analysed by Structural Equation Modelling together with Multi-group Analysis. The analysis confirmed that the concepts generated in Study One were influential factors affecting Chinese consumers' 3G adoption intention, with the exception of the concept external influence. Differences were found between the samples in the three research cities in the effect of hedonic expectation, status gains, status loss avoidance and normative influence on 3G adoption intention. The two Studies undertaken in this thesis contributed a better understanding of Chinese consumers' intentions to adopt advanced mobile technological innovation, namely 3G, in three regional markets. This knowledge contributes to innovation adoption and intra-cultural research, as well as consumer behaviour theory. It is also able to inform international and domestic telecommunication companies to develop and deliver more effective marketing strategies across Chinese regional markets. Limitations in the research were identified in terms of the sampling techniques used and the design of the two Studies. Future research was suggested in other Chinese regional markets and into consumer adoption of other types of mobile technological innovations.

Asymptotic and numerical results for a model of solvent-dependent drug diffusion through polymeric spheres

A model for drug diffusion from a spherical polymeric drug delivery device is considered. The model contains two key features. The first is that solvent diffuses into the polymer, which then transitions from a glassy to a rubbery state. The interface between the two states of polymer is modelled as a moving boundary, whose speed is governed by a kinetic law; the same moving boundary problem arises in the one-phase limit of a Stefan problem with kinetic undercooling. The second feature is that drug diffuses only through the rubbery region, with a nonlinear diffusion coefficient that depends on the concentration of solvent. We analyse the model using both formal asymptotics and numerical computation, the latter by applying a front-fixing scheme with a finite volume method. Previous results are extended and comparisons are made with linear models that work well under certain parameter regimes. Finally, a model for a multi-layered drug delivery device is suggested, which allows for more flexible control of drug release.

Examining the black box between stimulating regions and individual entrepreneurship

This paper seeks to investigate the link between the objective regional opportunity structure (captured by regional data) and individuals’ engagement in different stages in the venture creation process (intention to start a business and engagement in nascent entrepreneurship). We further investigate pathways through which a favourable regional environment could affect entrepreneurial intentions and the propensity to be a nascent entrepreneur. We combine individual level GEM-data for Western Germany with regional level data from the statistical office and use multi-level analysis to test our hypotheses. We find support for our contention that a favourable regional opportunity structure affects entrepreneurial intentions and engagement. As pathways between the region and individual behaviour serve the individual perception of founding opportunities and the individual social capital.

Gait energy volumes and frontal gait recognition using depth images

Gait energy images (GEIs) and its variants form the basis of many recent appearance-based gait recognition systems. The GEI combines good recognition performance with a simple implementation, though it suffers problems inherent to appearance-based approaches, such as being highly view dependent. In this paper, we extend the concept of the GEI to 3D, to create what we call the gait energy volume, or GEV. A basic GEV implementation is tested on the CMU MoBo database, showing improvements over both the GEI baseline and a fused multi-view GEI approach. We also demonstrate the efficacy of this approach on partial volume reconstructions created from frontal depth images, which can be more practically acquired, for example, in biometric portals implemented with stereo cameras, or other depth acquisition systems. Experiments on frontal depth images are evaluated on an in-house developed database captured using the Microsoft Kinect, and demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach.

Managing financial implications for sustainable highway infrastructure delivery

Highway construction works have significant bearings on all aspects of sustainability. As they typically involve huge capital funds, stakeholders tend to place all interests on the financial justifications of the project, especially when embedding sustainability principles and practices may demand significant initial investment. Increasing public awareness and government policies demand that infrastructure projects respond to environmental challenges and people start to realise the negative consequences of not to pursue sustainability. Stakeholders are now keen to identify sustainable alternatives and financial implications of including them on a whole lifecycle basis. Therefore tools that aid the evaluation of investment options, such as provision of environmentally sustainable features in roads and highways, are highly desirable. Life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA) is generally recognised as a valuable approach for investment decision making for construction works. However to date it has limited application because the current LCCA models tend to focus on economic issues alone and are not able to deal with sustainability factors. This paper reports a research on identifying sustainability related factors in highway construction projects, in quantitative and qualitative forms of a multi-criteria analysis. These factors are then incorporated into existing LCCA models to produce a new sustainability based LCCA model with cost elements specific to sustainability measures. This presents highway project stakeholders a practical tool to evaluate investment decisions and reach an optimum balance between financial viability and sustainability deliverables.

Chongqing International Circus City

The design grows out of the rich culture of circus and the rugged dynamic topography of Chongqing. The site for this project is nestled on the banks of the mighty Yangzte, China's longest river: a vast sweeping watery ribbon carving its way through the mountainous terrain. This swirling sinuous environmental thread replicates in nature the tweisting ribbons circling the gyrating circus gymnast. The project grows from intertwining these swirling parallel conceptions of 'ribbon'. A multi-layered envelope of glass and steel ribbons creates a dome like enclosure that wraps itself around the dynamic performing heart of the circus. The main auditorium and stage area are accommodated in this space. Key public elements and facilities are located adjacent to the new riverfront boulevard maximising the positive relationship with this attractive landscape zone. Service and support areas are located along the southern boundary. Key Statistics; Client: Chongqing Broadcast Bureau Developer: Chongqing Real Estate Site: 3.3 Ha Development: Total G.F.A.: 36,800m2 Project Cost: Total Investment: RMB 300 Million (A$48 million) Other competition participants were BIG-Bjarke Ingels Group (Denmark)/arquitectonica (USA)/Beijing Architectural Design Institute/East China Architectural Design Institute/China Architectural Design Academy.

Active regulation of the epidermal calcium profile

A distinct calcium profile is strongly implicated in regulating the multi-layered structure of the epidermis. However, the mechanisms that govern the regulation of this calcium profile are currently unclear. It clearly depends on the relatively impermeable barrier of the stratum corneum (passive regulation) but may also depend on calcium exchanges between keratinocytes and extracellular fluid (active regulation). Using a mathematical model that treats the viable sublayers of unwounded human and murine epidermis as porous media and assumes that their calcium profiles are passively regulated, we demonstrate that these profiles are also actively regulated. To obtain this result, we found that diffusion governs extracellular calcium motion in the viable epidermis and hence intracellular calcium is the main source of the epidermal calcium profile. Then, by comparison with experimental calcium profiles and combination with a hypothesised cell velocity distribution in the viable epidermis, we found that the net influx of calcium ions into keratinocytes from extracellular fluid may be constant and positive throughout the stratum basale and stratum spinosum, and that there is a net outflux of these ions in the stratum granulosum. Hence the calcium exchange between keratinocytes and extracellular fluid differs distinctly between the stratum granulosum and the underlying sublayers, and these differences actively regulate the epidermal calcium profile. Our results also indicate that plasma membrane dysfunction may be an early event during keratinocyte disintegration in the stratum granulosum.

Variations on a routine : how selection-adaptation-retention dynamics create variety in organisational routines

The question "what causes variety in organisational routines" is of considerable interest to organisational scholars, and one to which this thesis seeks to answer. To this end an evolutionary theory of change is advanced which holds that the dynamics of selection, adaptation and retention explain the creation of variety in organisational routines. A longitudinal, multi-level, multi-case analysis is undertaken in this thesis, using multiple data collection strategies. In each case, different types of variety were identified, according to a typology, together with how selection, adaptation and retention contribute to variety in a positive or negative sense. Methodologically, the thesis makes a contribution to our understanding of variety, as certain types of variety only become evident when examined by specific types of research design. The research also makes a theoretical contribution by explaining how selection, adaptation and retention individually and collectively contribute to variety in organisational routines. Moreover, showing that routines could be stable, diverse, adaptive and dynamic at the same time; is a significant, and novel, theoretical contribution.

An integrated approach to supporting land-use decisions in site redevelopment for urban renewal in Hong Kong

Urban renewal is a significant issue in developed urban areas, with a particular problem for urban planners being redevelopment of land to meet demand whilst ensuring compatibility with existing land use. This paper presents a geographic information systems (GIS)-based decision support tool (called LUDS) to quantitatively assess land-use suitability for site redevelopment in urban renewal areas. This consists of a model for the suitability analysis and an affiliated land-information database for residential, commercial, industrial, G/I/C (government/institution/community) and open space land uses. Development has occurred with support from interviews with industry experts, focus group meetings and an experimental trial, combined with several advanced techniques and tools, including GIS data processing and spatial analysis, multi-criterion analysis, as well as the AHP method for constructing the model and database. As demonstrated in the trial, LUDS assists planners in making land-use decisions and supports the planning process in assessing urban land-use suitability for site redevelopment. Moreover, it facilitates public consultation (participatory planning) by providing stakeholders with an explicit understanding of planners' views.

Welfare reform, surveillance and new paternalism

This paper discusses the situation of welfare claimants, often constructed as faulty citizens and flawed welfare subjects. Many are on the receiving end of complex, multi-layered forms of surveillance aimed at securing socially responsible and compliant behaviours. In Australia, as in other Western countries, neoliberal economic regimes with their harsh and often repressive treatment of welfare recipients operate in tandem with a burgeoning and costly arsenal of CCTV and other surveillance and governance assemblages. The Australian Government’s Centrelink BasicsCard is but one example of welfare surveillance, whereby a percentage of a welfare claimant’s allowances must be spent on ‘approved’ items. The BasicsCard which has perhaps slipped under the radar of public discussion and is expanding nationally, raises significant questions about whether it is possible to encourage people to take responsibility for themselves if they no longer have real control over the most important aspects of their lives. Resistance and critical feedback, particularly from Indigenous people, points to a loss of dignity around the imposition of income management, operational complexity and denial of individual agency in using the BasicsCard, alongside the contradiction of apparently becoming ‘self-reliant’ through being income managed by the welfare state. This paper highlights the lack of solid evidence for the implementation/imposition of the BasicsCard and points to the importance of developing critically based research to inform the enactment of evidence based policy, also acting as a touchstone for governmental accountability. In highlighting issues around the BasicsCard this paper makes a contribution to the largely under discussed area of income management and the growth of welfare surveillance in Australia.

Email as an arena for authoring a dialogical self among gifted young adolescents : a qualitative study

This paper describes a qualitative study that investigated young adolescents’ self-constructions within the context of online (email) communication. Drawing from dialogical perspectives of self as multiply-situated and complex phenomena, the study focused on the everyday narratives of individual young adolescents interpreted as different “I” voices. With the assumption that computer mediation offers cultural relevance and empowerment to young adolescents, techniques of personal journal writing were used in combination with email as an alternative to face-to-face methods. Twelve participants aged 10 to 14 years were recruited online and by word-of-mouth with an invitation to write freely about their lives over a six month period in a participant-led email journal project. The role of the researcher was to develop a supportive voice of listener/responder that was intended to facilitate the emergence of participants’ own ‘self’ voices within an interactive space for relatively autonomous self-expression. Data as email texts were analysed using a close listening method that synchronised with the theory by revealing multi-layered patterns and shifts of voices in order to give a nuanced understanding of participants’ self and other evaluations. The paper shows that narrative methods used online and in concert with dialogical concepts have potential to heighten self-reflection and strengthen agency as a means to access rich and nuanced data from young adolescent individuals. The study’s findings contribute to a growing interest in the use of dialogical concepts to explore the ways people engage in active meaning-making while embedded in their specific social and cultural environments.

The legal nature of justice in REDD+

Formation of Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) policy within the international climate regime has raised a number of discussions about ‘justice’. REDD+ aims to provide an incentive for developing countries to preserve or increase the amount of carbon stored in their forested areas. Governance of REDD+ is multi-layered: at the international level, a guiding framework must be determined; at the national level, strong legal frameworks are a pre-requisite to ensure both public and private investor confidence and at the sub-national level, forest-dependent peoples need to agree to participate as stewards of forest carbon project areas. At the international level the overall objective of REDD+ is yet to be determined, with competing mitigation, biological and justice agendas. Existing international law pertaining to the environment (international environmental principles and law, IEL) and human rights (international human rights law, IHRL) should inform the development of international and national REDD+ policy especially in relation to ensuring the environmental integrity of projects and participation and benefit-sharing rights for forest dependent communities. National laws applicable to REDD+ must accommodate the needs of all stakeholders and articulate boundaries which define their interactions, paying particular attention to ensuring that vulnerable groups are protected. This paper i) examines justice theories and IEL and IHRL to inform our understanding of what ‘justice’ means in the context of REDD+, and ii) applies international law to create a reference tool for policy-makers dealing with the complex sub-debates within this emerging climate policy. We achieve this by: 1) Briefly outlining theories of justice (for example – perspectives offered by anthropogenic and ecocentric approaches, and views from ‘green economics’). 2) Commenting on what ‘climate justice’ means in the context of REDD+. 3) Outlining a selection of IEL and IHRL principles and laws to inform our understanding of ‘justice’ in this policy realm (for example – common but differentiated responsibilities, the precautionary principle, sovereignty and prevention drawn from the principles of IEL, the UNFCCC and CBD as relevant conventions of international environmental law; and UNDRIP and the Declaration on the Right to Development as applicable international human rights instruments) 4) Noting how this informs what ‘justice’ is for different REDD+ stakeholders 5) Considering how current law-making (at both the international and national levels) reflects these principles and rules drawn from international law 6) Presenting how international law can inform policy-making by providing a reference tool of applicable international law and how it could be applied to different issues linked to REDD+. As such, this paper will help scholars and policy-makers to understand how international law can assist us to both conceptualise and embody ‘justice’ within frameworks for REDD+ at both the international and national levels.

Regional characteristics, opportunity perception and entrepreneurial activities

This paper seeks to better understand the link between regional characteristics and individual entrepreneurship. We combine individual-level GEM data for Western Germany with regional-level data, using multi-level analysis to test our hypotheses. We find no direct link between regional knowledge creation, the economic context and an entrepreneurial culture on the one side and individual business start-up intentions and start-up activity on the other side. However our findings point to the importance of an indirect effect of regional characteristics as knowledge creation, the economic context and an entrepreneurial culture have an effect on the individual perception of founding opportunities which in turn predicted start-up intentions and activity.

Which procurement system? Towards a universal procurement selection technique

Two approaches are described, which aid the selection of the most appropriate procurement arrangements for a building project. The first is a multi-attribute technique based on the National Economic Development Office procurement path decision chart. A small study is described in which the utility factors involved were weighted by averaging the scores of five 'experts' for three hypothetical building projects. A concordance analysis is used to provide some evidence of any abnormal data sources. When applied to the study data, one of the experts was seen to be atypical. The second approach is by means of discriminant analysis. This was found to provide reasonably consistent predictions through three discriminant functions. The analysis also showed the quality criteria to have no significant impact on the decision process. Both approaches provided identical and intuitively correct answers in the study described. Some concluding remarks are made on the potential of discriminant analysis for future research and development in procurement selection techniques.