The role of different factors related to social impact of heavy events: considerations about the intensity thresholds in densely populated areas

In the assessment of social impact caused by meteorological events, factors of different natures need to be considered. Not only does hazard itself determine the impact that a severe weather event has on society, but also other features related to vulnerability and exposure. The requests of data related to insurance claims received in meteorological services proved to be a good indicator of the social impact that a weather event causes, according to studies carried out by the Social Impact Research Group, created within the framework of the MEDEX project. Taking these requests as proxy data, diverse aspects connected to the impact of heavy rain events have been studied. The rainfall intensity, in conjunction with the population density, has established itself as one of the key factors in social impact studies. One of the conclusions we obtained is that various thresholds of rainfall should be applied for areas of varying populations. In this study, the role of rainfall intensity has been analysed for a highly populated urban area like Barcelona. A period without significant population changes has been selected for the study to minimise the effects linked to vulnerability and exposure modifications. First, correlations between rainfall recorded in different time intervals and requests were carried out. Afterwards, a method to include the intensity factor in the social impact index was suggested based on return periods given by intensity duration frequency (IDF) curves.

Bone markers and cytokines in response to low-impact, high-intensity exercise

A low-impact, high-intensity interval exercise (HIE) bout was used to determine whether an association exists between cytokines and bone turnover markers following an acute bout of exercise. Twenty-three recreationally active males (21.8±2.4yr) performed a single HIE bout on a cycle ergometer at 90% relative intensity. Venous blood samples were collected prior to exercise, 5-minutes, 1-hour, and 24-hours post-exercise, and were analyzed for serum levels of pro-inflammatory (IL-6, IL-1α, IL-1β, and TNF-α) and anti- inflammatory cytokines (IL-10) and markers of bone formation (BAP, OPG) and resorption (NTX, RANKL). Significant effects were observed with all bone markers, especially 5-minutes post-exercise with BAP, OPG, and RANKL increasing from baseline (p<0.05). Significant effects were also observed for IL-1α, IL-1β, IL-6, and TNF-α (p<0.00, p=0.04, p=0.03, p<0.00). In addition, post-exercise changes in NTX, BAP, and OPG were significantly correlated pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines, suggesting that an interaction exists between the immune and skeletal response to exercise.

Receivable Management in Non Banking Finance Companies with Special Reference to Vehicle Financing

In the absence of entry barrier or regulatory restrictions, Non Banking Financial Companies frantically grew and accessed the public deposit without any regulatory control. The deposit of NBFCs grew from Rs. 41.9 crore in 1971 to 53116.0 crore in 1997. This growth was the result of a combined effect of increase in the number of NBFCs and increase in the amount of deposits. The deposits amazed as above was invested in various assets especially that in motor vehicles by these asset financing NBFCs. Various tactics were adopted by these NBFCs and their agents for recovering the receivable outstanding from such assets. Both central government and RBI were concerned about the protection of depositors‘ interest and various committees were set up to frame a comprehensive regulation for the functioning of these NBFCs.

Estimates of Avian Mortality Attributed to Vehicle Collisions in Canada

Although mortality of birds from collisions with vehicles is estimated to be in the millions in the USA, Europe, and the UK, to date, no estimates exist for Canada. To address this, we calculated an estimate of annual avian mortality attributed to vehicular collisions during the breeding and fledging season, in Canadian ecozones, by applying North American literature values for avian mortality to Canadian road networks. Because owls are particularly susceptible to collisions with vehicles, we also estimated the number of roadkilled Barn owls (Tyto alba) in its last remaining range within Canada. (This species is on the IUCN red list and is also listed federally as threatened; Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada 2010, International Union for the Conservation of Nature 2012). Through seven Canadian studies in existence, 80 species and 2,834 specimens have been found dead on roads representing species from 14 orders of birds. On Canadian 1 and 2-lane paved roads outside of major urban centers, the unadjusted number of bird mortalities/yr during an estimated 4-mo (122-d) breeding and fledging season for most birds in Canada was 4,650,137 on roads traversing through deciduous, coniferous, cropland, wetlands and nonagricultural landscapes with less than 10% treed area. On average, this represents 1,167 birds killed/100 km in Canada. Adjusted for scavenging, this estimate was 13,810,906 (3,462 dead birds/100 km). For barn owls, the unadjusted number of birds killed annually on 4-lane roads during the breeding and fledging season, within the species geographic range in southern British Columbia, was estimated as 244 owls and, when adjusted for scavenging and observer bias (3.6 factor), the total was 851 owls.

Phyto-activity of biocides used to manipulate herbivory: tests of three pesticides on fourteen plant species

1. We tested three pesticides used for field manipulations of herbivory for direct phytoactive effects on the germination and growth of 14 herbaceous plant species selected to provide a range of life-history strategies and functional groups. 2. We report three companion experiments: (A) Two insecticides, chlorpyrifos (granular soil insecticide) and dimethoate (foliar spray), were applied in fully-factorial combination to pot-germinated individuals of 12 species. (B) The same fully-factorial design was used to test for direct effects on the germination of four herbaceous legumes. (C) The molluscicide, metaldehyde, was tested for direct effects on the germination and growth of six plant species. 3. The insecticides had few significant effects on growth and germination. Dimethoate acted only on growth stimulating Anisantha sterilis, Sonchus asper and Stellaria graminea. In contrast, chlorpyrifos acted on germination increasing the germination of Trifolium dubium and Trifolium pratense. There was also a significant interactive effect of chlorpyrifos and dimethoate on the germination of T pratense. However, all. effects were relatively small in magnitude and explanatory power. The molluscicide had no significant effect on plant germination or growth. 4. The small number and size of direct effects of the pesticides on plant performance is encouraging for the use of these pesticides in manipulative experiments on herbivory, especially for the molluscicide. However, a smatt number of direct (positive) effects of the insecticides on some plant species need to be taken into account when interpreting field manipulations of herbivory with these compounds, and emphasises the importance of conducting tests for direct phyto-active effects. (C) 2004 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

The use of land-sea warming contrast under climate change to improve impact metrics

A favoured method of assimilating information from state-of-the-art climate models into integrated assessment models of climate impacts is to use the transient climate response (TCR) of the climate models as an input, sometimes accompanied by a pattern matching approach to provide spatial information. More recent approaches to the problem use TCR with another independent piece of climate model output: the land-sea surface warming ratio (φ). In this paper we show why the use of φ in addition to TCR has such utility. Multiple linear regressions of surface temperature change onto TCR and φ in 22 climate models from the CMIP3 multi-model database show that the inclusion of φ explains a much greater fraction of the inter-model variance than using TCR alone. The improvement is particularly pronounced in North America and Eurasia in the boreal summer season, and in the Amazon all year round. The use of φ as the second metric is beneficial for three reasons: firstly it is uncorrelated with TCR in state-of-the-art climate models and can therefore be considered as an independent metric; secondly, because of its projected time-invariance, the magnitude of φ is better constrained than TCR in the immediate future; thirdly, the use of two variables is much simpler than approaches such as pattern scaling from climate models. Finally we show how using the latest estimates of φ from climate models with a mean value of 1.6—as opposed to previously reported values of 1.4—can significantly increase the mean time-integrated discounted damage projections in a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model by about 15 %. When compared to damages calculated without the inclusion of the land-sea warming ratio, this figure rises to 65 %, equivalent to almost 200 trillion dollars over 200 years.

Skovgaard`s adjustment to likelihood ratio tests in exponential family nonlinear models

Likelihood ratio tests can be substantially size distorted in small- and moderate-sized samples. In this paper, we apply Skovgaard`s [Skovgaard, I.M., 2001. Likelihood asymptotics. Scandinavian journal of Statistics 28, 3-321] adjusted likelihood ratio statistic to exponential family nonlinear models. We show that the adjustment term has a simple compact form that can be easily implemented from standard statistical software. The adjusted statistic is approximately distributed as X(2) with high degree of accuracy. It is applicable in wide generality since it allows both the parameter of interest and the nuisance parameter to be vector-valued. Unlike the modified profile likelihood ratio statistic obtained from Cox and Reid [Cox, D.R., Reid, N., 1987. Parameter orthogonality and approximate conditional inference. journal of the Royal Statistical Society B49, 1-39], the adjusted statistic proposed here does not require an orthogonal parameterization. Numerical comparison of likelihood-based tests of varying dispersion favors the test we propose and a Bartlett-corrected version of the modified profile likelihood ratio test recently obtained by Cysneiros and Ferrari [Cysneiros, A.H.M.A., Ferrari, S.L.P., 2006. An improved likelihood ratio test for varying dispersion in exponential family nonlinear models. Statistics and Probability Letters 76 (3), 255-265]. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Alternative saline solutions to float foraminiferal tests

Flotation has been widely used in studies of recent foraminifera in order to concentrate tests and save time during picking. In this paper, four flotation agents with different densities were compared: (1) trichloroethylene, TCE (C2HCl3), with a density of 1.46 g mL(-1); (2) sodium nitrate/sodium thiosulfate solution, SNT (NaNO3 + Na2O3S2 center dot 5H(2)O), with a density of 1.46 g mL(-1); (3) zinc chloride Solution, ZC (ZHCl(2)), with a density of 1.70 g mL(-1); and (4) sodium polytungstate solution, SPT (3Na(2)WO(4) center dot 9WO(3) center dot 5H(2)O), with a density of 2.50 g mL(-1). Comparison was carried out by means of qualitative and quantitative data. Results showed that ZC and SPT were the best flotation agents, recovering 91% and 96% of the total tests, respectively, whereas TCE and SNT recovered 59.1% and 72.8%, respectively. Both quantitative and qualitative results significantly improved with a higher density of the flotation liquid. Therefore, substitution of TCE with ZC or SPT solutions is strongly encouraged, because they are, additionally, less harmful to health and the environment. ZC is the most cost-effective, since its results were not significantly different from those of the SPT treatment. Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) was not considered in this comparative study, because it has been banned in many countries and it is highly harmful to health and the environment.

Determination of the maximum force due to skull impact in fights between sheep of the Ovis aries species

The present article presents a means of determining the maximum impact force between two bodies from the determination of the involved impulse in the impact and the sound emitted by the shock of the bodies during this impact.It also presents a case study applied to the shock between the skulls of male sheep of the Ovis aries species. These animals do not possess horns and dispute the territorial leadership by fighting, during which the skull is used as a weapon of attack, similar to a battering ram.Initially, a revision of basic physics approaching the theory of impulse is made, which shows that the average force during an impact can be obtained by the quantity of movement of the bodies. In its turn, the quantity of movement is obtained through the average speed of approach and the mass of the bodies. The maximum force is obtained from the average force, using the approach of the Force X Time curve with the Sonorous Intensity X Time Curve.In order to study the case of a shock between two sheep, the mass of the bodies was obtained through direct weighing and the average speed of approach obtained indirectly through filming, thus making possible the calculation of the average force. The Sonorous Intensity X Time Curve was obtained through the recording of the sound of the impact during a filmed fight, with later manipulation through computer programs. With this data the maximum force exercised between the skull of the sheep during the impact was obtained, which will be used in later studies.

A first approach to the impact of the real exchange rate on industrial sectors in Colombia

Much has been said about possible symptoms of Dutch disease in Colombia in the wake of a marked upsurge in commodity prices and the significant real appreciation of the national currency. This paper examines whether the real effective exchange rate had an impact on industry during the period 2000-2010. Specifically, it evaluates the effect of the appreciation of the real exchange rate on the value added of 63 industrial sectors in Colombia using the Arellano and Bond (1991) generalized method of moments (gmm) estimator. Overall, our results confirm a negative relationship between real exchange rate appreciation and industry. The analysis showed that real exchange rate appreciation had a significant impact on the value added of 21 sectors: a negative effect for 18 sectors and a positive effect for 3 sectors.

Depicting the role of CDKN2A/ARF alterations in adult BCR-ABL1-positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia patients: from genomic deletions to prognostic impact

This 9p21 locus, encode for important proteins involved in cell cycle regulation and apoptosis containing the p16/CDKN2A (cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor 2a) tumor suppressor gene and two other related genes, p14/ARF and p15/CDKN2B. This locus, is a major target of inactivation in the pathogenesis of a number of human tumors, both solid and haematologic, and is a frequent site of loss or deletion also in acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) ranging from 18% to 45% 1. In order to explore, at high resolution, the frequency and size of alterations affecting this locus in adult BCR-ABL1-positive ALL and to investigate their prognostic value, 112 patients (101 de novo and 11 relapse cases) were analyzed by genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms arrays and gene candidate deep exon sequencing. Paired diagnosis-relapse samples were further available and analyzed for 19 (19%) cases. CDKN2A/ARF and CDKN2B genomic alterations were identified in 29% and 25% of newly diagnosed patients, respectively. Deletions were monoallelic in 72% of cases and in 43% the minimal overlapping region of the lost area spanned only the CDKN2A/2B gene locus. The analysis at the time of relapse showed an almost significant increase in the detection rate of CDKN2A/ARF loss (47%) compared to diagnosis (p = 0.06). Point mutations within the 9p21 locus were found at very low level with only a non-synonymous substition in the exon 2 of CDKN2A. Finally, correlation with clinical outcome showed that deletions of CDKN2A/B are significantly associated with poor outcome in terms of overall survival (p = 0.0206), disease free-survival (p = 0.0010) and cumulative incidence of relapse (p = 0.0014). The inactivation of 9p21 locus by genomic deletions is a frequent event in BCR-ABL1-positive ALL. Deletions are frequently acquired at the leukemia progression and work as a poor prognostic marker.

Transfer of spatial knowledge from a virtual environment to reality: Impact of route complexity and subject’s strategy on the exploration mode

The use of virtual reality as tool in the area of spatial cognition raises the question of the quality of learning transfer from a virtual to a real environment. It is first necessary to determine with healthy subjects, the cognitive aids that improve the quality of transfer and the conditions required, especially since virtual reality can be used as effective tool in cognitive rehabilitation. The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of the exploration mode of virtual environment (Passive vs. Active) according to Route complexity (Simple vs. Complex) on the quality of spatial knowledge transfer in three spatial tasks. Ninety subjects (45 men and 45 women) participated. Spatial learning was evaluated by Wayfinding, sketch-mapping and picture classification tasks in the context of the Bordeaux district. In the Wayfinding task, results indicated that active learning in a Virtual Environment (VE) increased the performances compared to the passive learning condition, irrespective of the route complexity factor. In the Sketch-mapping task, active learning in a VE helped the subjects to transfer their spatial knowledge from the VE to reality, but only when the route was complex. In the Picture classification task, active learning in a VE when the route was complex did not help the subjects to transfer their spatial knowledge. These results are explained in terms of knowledge levels and frame/strategy of reference [SW75, PL81, TH82].