Atmosphere-ocean coupled processes in the Madden-Julian oscillation

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a convectively coupled 30-70 day (intraseasonal) tropical atmospheric mode that drives variations in global weather, but which is poorly simulated in most atmospheric general circulation models. Over the past two decades, field campaigns and modeling experiments have suggested that tropical atmosphere-ocean interactions may sustain or amplify the pattern of enhanced and suppressed atmospheric convection that defines the MJO, and encourage its eastward propagation through the Indian and Pacific Oceans. New observations collected during the past decade have advanced our understand of the ocean response to atmospheric MJO forcing and the resulting intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations. Numerous modeling studies have revealed a considerable impact of the mean state on MJO ocean-atmosphere coupled processes, as well as the importance of resolving the diurnal cycle of atmosphere--upper-ocean interactions. New diagnostic methods provide insight to atmospheric variability and physical processes associated with the MJO, but offer limited insight on the role of ocean feedbacks. Consequently, uncertainty remains concerning the role of the ocean in MJO theory. Our understanding of how atmosphere-ocean coupled processes affect the MJO can be improved by collecting observations in poorly sampled regions of MJO activity, assessing oceanic and atmospheric drivers of surface fluxes, improving the representation of upper-ocean mixing in coupled-model simulations, designing model experiments that minimize mean-state differences, and developing diagnostic tools to evaluate the nature and role of coupled ocean-atmosphere processes over the MJO cycle.

The sensitivity of convective aggregation to diabatic processes in idealized radiative-convective equilibrium simulations

Idealized explicit convection simulations of the Met Office Unified Model exhibit spontaneous self-aggregation in radiative-convective equilibrium, as seen in other models in previous studies. This self-aggregation is linked to feedbacks between radiation, surface fluxes, and convection, and the organization is intimately related to the evolution of the column water vapor field. Analysis of the budget of the spatial variance of column-integrated frozen moist static energy (MSE), following Wing and Emanuel [2014], reveals that the direct radiative feedback (including significant cloud longwave effects) is dominant in both the initial development of self-aggregation and the maintenance of an aggregated state. A low-level circulation at intermediate stages of aggregation does appear to transport MSE from drier to moister regions, but this circulation is mostly balanced by other advective effects of opposite sign and is forced by horizontal anomalies of convective heating (not radiation). Sensitivity studies with either fixed prescribed radiative cooling, fixed prescribed surface fluxes, or both do not show full self-aggregation from homogeneous initial conditions, though fixed surface fluxes do not disaggregate an initialized aggregated state. A sensitivity study in which rain evaporation is turned off shows more rapid self-aggregation, while a run with this change plus fixed radiative cooling still shows strong self-aggregation, supporting a “moisture memory” effect found in Muller and Bony [2015]. Interestingly, self-aggregation occurs even in simulations with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 295 K and 290 K, with direct radiative feedbacks dominating the budget of MSE variance, in contrast to results in some previous studies.

Two case studies of sulfate scavenging processes in the Amazon region (Rondonia)

The scavenging processes of chemical species have been previously studied with numerical modeling, in order to understand the gas and particulate matter intra-reservoir transferences. In this study, the atmospheric (RAMS) and scavenging (B.V.2) models were used, in order to simulate sulfate concentrations in rainwater using scavenging processes as well as the local atmospheric conditions obtained within the LBA Project in the State of Rondonia, during a dry-to-wet transition season. Two case studies were conducted. The RAMS atmospheric simulation of these events presented satisfactory results, showing the detailed microphysical processes of clouds in the Amazonian region. On the other hand, with cloud entrainments, observed values have been overestimated. Modeled sulfate rainwater concentration, using exponential decay and cloud heights of 16 km and no entrainments, presented the best results, reaching 97% of the observed value. The results, using shape parameter 5, are the best, improving the overall result. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Human Stem Cell Cultures from Cleft Lip/Palate Patients Show Enrichment of Transcripts Involved in Extracellular Matrix Modeling By Comparison to Controls

Nonsyndromic cleft lip and palate (NSCL/P) is a complex disease resulting from failure of fusion of facial primordia, a complex developmental process that includes the epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT). Detection of differential gene transcription between NSCL/P patients and control individuals offers an interesting alternative for investigating pathways involved in disease manifestation. Here we compared the transcriptome of 6 dental pulp stem cell (DPSC) cultures from NSCL/P patients and 6 controls. Eighty-seven differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified. The most significant putative gene network comprised 13 out of 87 DEGs of which 8 encode extracellular proteins: ACAN, COL4A1, COL4A2, GDF15, IGF2, MMP1, MMP3 and PDGFa. Through clustering analyses we also observed that MMP3, ACAN, COL4A1 and COL4A2 exhibit co-regulated expression. Interestingly, it is known that MMP3 cleavages a wide range of extracellular proteins, including the collagens IV, V, IX, X, proteoglycans, fibronectin and laminin. It is also capable of activating other MMPs. Moreover, MMP3 had previously been associated with NSCL/P. The same general pattern was observed in a further sample, confirming involvement of synchronized gene expression patterns which differed between NSCL/P patients and controls. These results show the robustness of our methodology for the detection of differentially expressed genes using the RankProd method. In conclusion, DPSCs from NSCL/P patients exhibit gene expression signatures involving genes associated with mechanisms of extracellular matrix modeling and palate EMT processes which differ from those observed in controls. This comparative approach should lead to a more rapid identification of gene networks predisposing to this complex malformation syndrome than conventional gene mapping technologies.

Modeling connectivity in terms of network activity

A new complex network model is proposed which is founded on growth, with new connections being established proportionally to the current dynamical activity of each node, which can be understood as a generalization of the Barabasi-Albert static model. By using several topological measurements, as well as optimal multivariate methods (canonical analysis and maximum likelihood decision), we show that this new model provides, among several other theoretical kinds of networks including Watts-Strogatz small-world networks, the greatest compatibility with three real-world cortical networks.

Comparing time-varying autoregressive structures of locally stationary processes

In this paper, a novel statistical test is introduced to compare two locally stationary time series. The proposed approach is a Wald test considering time-varying autoregressive modeling and function projections in adequate spaces. The covariance structure of the innovations may be also time- varying. In order to obtain function estimators for the time- varying autoregressive parameters, we consider function expansions in splines and wavelet bases. Simulation studies provide evidence that the proposed test has a good performance. We also assess its usefulness when applied to a financial time series.

RUMOR PROCESSES ON N

We study four discrete-time stochastic systems on N, modeling processes of rumor spreading. The involved individuals can either have an active or a passive role, speaking up or asking for the rumor. The appetite for spreading or hearing the rumor is represented by a set of random variables whose distributions may depend on the individuals. Our goal is to understand-based on the distribution of the random variables-whether the probability of having an infinite set of individuals knowing the rumor is positive or not.

Density-Profile Processes Describing Biological Signaling Networks: Almost Sure Convergence to Deterministic Trajectories

We introduce jump processes in R(k), called density-profile processes, to model biological signaling networks. Our modeling setup describes the macroscopic evolution of a finite-size spin-flip model with k types of spins with arbitrary number of internal states interacting through a non-reversible stochastic dynamics. We are mostly interested on the multi-dimensional empirical-magnetization vector in the thermodynamic limit, and prove that, within arbitrary finite time-intervals, its path converges almost surely to a deterministic trajectory determined by a first-order (non-linear) differential equation with explicit bounds on the distance between the stochastic and deterministic trajectories. As parameters of the spin-flip dynamics change, the associated dynamical system may go through bifurcations, associated to phase transitions in the statistical mechanical setting. We present a simple example of spin-flip stochastic model, associated to a synthetic biology model known as repressilator, which leads to a dynamical system with Hopf and pitchfork bifurcations. Depending on the parameter values, the magnetization random path can either converge to a unique stable fixed point, converge to one of a pair of stable fixed points, or asymptotically evolve close to a deterministic orbit in Rk. We also discuss a simple signaling pathway related to cancer research, called p53 module.

Challenges in Radiative Transfer Modeling - W3 IRS5

By modeling the spectral energy distribution (SED) of the W3 IRS5 high-mass star formation region and matching this model to observed data, we can constrain the physical parameters of the basic system geometry and cloud mass distribution. From these parameters, we hope to add to the understanding of high-mass star formation processes. In particular, we hope to determine if the geometries associated with lowmass star formation carry over into the high-mass regime.

RWater – A Cyber Enabled Tool For Hydrologic Modeling And Analysis

Existing distributed hydrologic models are complex and computationally demanding for using as a rapid-forecasting policy-decision tool, or even as a class-room educational tool. In addition, platform dependence, specific input/output data structures and non-dynamic data-interaction with pluggable software components inside the existing proprietary frameworks make these models restrictive only to the specialized user groups. RWater is a web-based hydrologic analysis and modeling framework that utilizes the commonly used R software within the HUBzero cyber infrastructure of Purdue University. RWater is designed as an integrated framework for distributed hydrologic simulation, along with subsequent parameter optimization and visualization schemes. RWater provides platform independent web-based interface, flexible data integration capacity, grid-based simulations, and user-extensibility. RWater uses RStudio to simulate hydrologic processes on raster based data obtained through conventional GIS pre-processing. The program integrates Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm for parameter optimization. Moreover, RWater enables users to produce different descriptive statistics and visualization of the outputs at different temporal resolutions. The applicability of RWater will be demonstrated by application on two watersheds in Indiana for multiple rainfall events.

Meteomap: Generation Of Meteorological Variables For Distributed Physically-Based Hydrological Modeling

Distributed energy and water balance models require time-series surfaces of the meteorological variables involved in hydrological processes. Most of the hydrological GIS-based models apply simple interpolation techniques to extrapolate the point scale values registered at weather stations at a watershed scale. In mountainous areas, where the monitoring network ineffectively covers the complex terrain heterogeneity, simple geostatistical methods for spatial interpolation are not always representative enough, and algorithms that explicitly or implicitly account for the features creating strong local gradients in the meteorological variables must be applied. Originally developed as a meteorological pre-processing tool for a complete hydrological model (WiMMed), MeteoMap has become an independent software. The individual interpolation algorithms used to approximate the spatial distribution of each meteorological variable were carefully selected taking into account both, the specific variable being mapped, and the common lack of input data from Mediterranean mountainous areas. They include corrections with height for both rainfall and temperature (Herrero et al., 2007), and topographic corrections for solar radiation (Aguilar et al., 2010). MeteoMap is a GIS-based freeware upon registration. Input data include weather station records and topographic data and the output consists of tables and maps of the meteorological variables at hourly, daily, predefined rainfall event duration or annual scales. It offers its own pre and post-processing tools, including video outlook, map printing and the possibility of exporting the maps to images or ASCII ArcGIS formats. This study presents the friendly user interface of the software and shows some case studies with applications to hydrological modeling.

Modeling and predicting the CBOE market volatility index

This paper performs a thorough statistical examination of the time-series properties of the daily market volatility index (VIX) from the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). The motivation lies not only on the widespread consensus that the VIX is a barometer of the overall market sentiment as to what concerns investors' risk appetite, but also on the fact that there are many trading strategies that rely on the VIX index for hedging and speculative purposes. Preliminary analysis suggests that the VIX index displays long-range dependence. This is well in line with the strong empirical evidence in the literature supporting long memory in both options-implied and realized variances. We thus resort to both parametric and semiparametric heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) processes for modeling and forecasting purposes. Our main ndings are as follows. First, we con rm the evidence in the literature that there is a negative relationship between the VIX index and the S&P 500 index return as well as a positive contemporaneous link with the volume of the S&P 500 index. Second, the term spread has a slightly negative long-run impact in the VIX index, when possible multicollinearity and endogeneity are controlled for. Finally, we cannot reject the linearity of the above relationships, neither in sample nor out of sample. As for the latter, we actually show that it is pretty hard to beat the pure HAR process because of the very persistent nature of the VIX index.

Monitoramento da morfologia costeira em setores da bacia potiguar sob influência da indústria petrolífera utilizando geodésia de alta precisão e laser escâner terrestre

The objective of this Doctoral Thesis was monitoring, in trimestral scale, the coastal morphology of the Northeastern coast sections of Rio Grande do Norte State, in Brazil, which is an area of Potiguar Basin influenced by the oil industry activities. The studied sections compose coastal areas with intense sedimentary erosion and high environmental sensitivity to the oil spill. In order to achieve the general objective of this study, the work has been systematized in four steps. The first one refers to the evaluation of the geomorphological data acquisition methodologies used on Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of sandy beaches. The data has been obtained from Soledade beach, located on the Northeastern coast of Rio Grande Norte. The second step has been centered on the increasing of the reference geodetic infrastructure to accomplish the geodetic survey of the studied area by implanting a station in Corta Cachorro Barrier Island and by conducting monitoring geodetic surveys to understand the beach system based on the Coastline (CL) and on DEM multitemporal analysis. The third phase has been related to the usage of the methodology developed by Santos; Amaro (2011) and Santos et al. (2012) for the surveying, processing, representation, integration and analysis of Coastlines from sandy coast, which have been obtained through geodetic techniques of positioning, morphological change analysis and sediment transport. The fourth stage represents the innovation of surveys in coastal environment by using the Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS), based on Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), to evaluate a highly eroded section on Soledade beach where the oil industry structures are located. The evaluation has been achieved through high-precision DEM and accuracy during the modeling of the coast morphology changes. The result analysis of the integrated study about the spatial and temporal interrelations of the intense coastal processes in areas of building cycles and destruction of beaches has allowed identifying the causes and consequences of the intense coastal erosion in exposed beach sections and in barrier islands

A história do intemperismo na Província Borborema Oriental, Nordeste do Brasil: implicações paleoclimáticas e tectônicas

Until some years ago, weathering geochronology was primarily based on the K-Ar and 40Ar/39Ar dating of supergene minerals. Recent advances in the analysis of supergene goethite by the (U-Th)/He method expanded the number of suitable minerals for such purpose, as well as the time of application for weathering geochronology. This study represents the first systematic approach in Brazil, combining both the 40Ar/39Ar e (U-Th)/He methodologies to improve the knowledge on the weathering and the age of nonfossiliferous sediments. Supported by geologic and geomorphologic correlations, we identified different types of weathering profiles occurring in the interior and coastal areas of northeastern Brazil. These profiles were correlated to main regional geomorphological domains: the Borborema Plateau , the Sertaneja Depression , and the Coastal Cuestas and Plains, and respective planation surfaces, which study is fundamental to understand the landscape evolution of the northern portion of the eastern Borborema Province. The depth and stratigraphic organization of the weathering profiles in each of the geomorphological domains permitted to establish that: (i) the profiles on the highlands that cap the Borborema Surface are deeper (up to 100 m) and can be considered as typical lateritic profiles; (ii) on the lowlands that form the Sertaneja Surface , the weathering profiles are shallow and poorly developed (2-5 m deep); (iii) the profiles along the coastal area are moderately developed (up to 25 m deep), and are characterized by thick saprolites and mottle zones. Aiming to establish the timing of the evolution of northeastern Brazil, we studied 29 weathering profiles representing distinct topographic levels of the Borborema Province, from the highlands to the coast, through the analysis of 248 grains of supergene manganese oxides using laser step-heating 40Ar/39Ar geochronology. Additionally, we applied the (U-Th)/He method in 20 weathering profiles, by dating 171 grains of supergene iron oxides and hydroxides. Geochronological results for 248 grains of manganese oxides analyzed by the 40Ar/39Ar method indicate that the weathering profiles in the study area record the history of weathering from the Oligocene to the Pleistocene, with ages in the order of 31.4 ± 1.0 Ma to 0.8 ± 0.4 Ma. Dating of 171 grains of goethite by the (U-Th)/He method yielded ages ranging from 43.2 ± 4.3 Ma to 0.8 ± 0.1 Ma, suggesting the weathering processes last from the Eocene to the Pleistocene. The precipitation of supergene goethite in this interval confirms the age of the weathering processes identified from the manganese oxides record. 105 goethite grains from 8 different occurrences of the Barreiras Formation were dated by the (U-Th)/He method. Five grains collected from the cement in the Barreiras Formation sandstones, in the Lagoa Salgada and Rio do Fogo coastal cuestas, yielded ages of 17.6 ± 1.8 Ma, 17.3 ± 1.7 Ma, 16.3 ± 1.6 Ma, 16.2 ± 1.6 Ma and 13.6 ± 1.4 Ma. Results of 69 goethite grains from authigenic pisoliths collected in 7 different localities also yielded concordant ages, varying from 17.8 ± 1.8 to 7.5 ± 0.8 Ma. Results obtained from 31 detrital grains are concordant in 3 distinct localities (Lagoa Salgada, Praia da Garças e Ponta Grossa); they vary in the range of 43.2 ± 4.3 to 21.6 ± 2.2 Ma, and indicate that the maximum age for the Barreiras Formation deposition is around 22 Ma. 40Ar/39Ar results for 15 manganese oxides grains associated with the Barreiras Formation weathering profiles, in 3 different localities, vary from 13.1 ± 0.9 to 7.7 ± 0.4 Ma, in the same range of ages obtained by the (U-Th)/He method. The systematic application of the 40Ar/39Ar and (U-Th)/He methods, respectively for manganese oxides and goethites, show that the Barreiras Formation sediments were already deposited since ca. 17 Ma, and that the weathering processes were active until ca. 7 Ma ago. The ages obtained from manganese oxides collected in the Cenozoic basalts (Macau Formation) also reveal a weathering history between 19 and 7 Ma, pointing to hot and humid conditions during most of the Miocene. 40Ar/39Ar ages yielded by manganese oxides associated with the Serra do Martins Formation vary from 14.1 ± 0.4 to 10.5 ± 0.3 Ma. On the other hand, (U-Th)/He ages from iron oxides/hydroxides collected in the Serra do Martins Formation mesas vary from 20.0 ± 2.0 to 5.5 ± 0.6 Ma, indicating that those sediments are older than 20 Ma. 40Ar/39Ar and (U-Th)/He results produced in this study are in agreement with paleoclimatic interpretations based on stable isotopes and clay index values measured in the Atlantic Ocean sediments, validating the use of weathering geochronology to investigate paleoclimatic variations. The direct dating of the Barreiras Formation permitted, for the first time, confident inferences on the age of the brittle deformation recorded by this sedimentary unit in the Rio Grande do Norte and Ceará states. The first event, syn-deposition, occurred during the early Miocene; an younger event, related to the post-depositional deformation of the Barreiras Formation, is associated with tectonic activity from the very early Miocene to the Holocene. In agreement with data from other areas, results obtained in this study reveal that the depth and complexity of the weathering profiles reflect the time of exposition of such areas to the weathering agents close to the surface. However, there is no clear relationship between ages vs. altitude. The depth and the stratigraphic organization of weathering profiles in northeastern Brazil, contrary to the southeastern Brazil pattern, do not vary toward the coast. In our study area, field observations reveal the presence of ancient, thick and complex lateritic profiles preserved in the sedimentary mesas on the Borborema Plateau, as younger, narrow and incipient ones occur in the dissected areas. Geochronological results obtained for these profiles yielded older ages on the high altitudes, and younger ages in the lowlands, suggesting the scarp retreatment is the most reliable model to explain the regional landscape evolution. However, in the coastal lowlands, the relatively older ages obtained indicate that more complexes processes were involved in the modeling of the local relief

Ecological modeling and pest population management: a possible and necessary connection in a changing world

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)