881 resultados para Migrations of nations.


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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Recently, a rising interest in political and economic integration/disintegration issues has been developed in the political economy field. This growing strand of literature partly draws on traditional issues of fiscal federalism and optimum public good provision and focuses on a trade-off between the benefits of centralization, arising from economies of scale or externalities, and the costs of harmonizing policies as a consequence of the increased heterogeneity of individual preferences in an international union or in a country composed of at least two regions. This thesis stems from this strand of literature and aims to shed some light on two highly relevant aspects of the political economy of European integration. The first concerns the role of public opinion in the integration process; more precisely, how economic benefits and costs of integration shape citizens' support for European Union (EU) membership. The second is the allocation of policy competences among different levels of government: European, national and regional. Chapter 1 introduces the topics developed in this thesis by reviewing the main recent theoretical developments in the political economy analysis of integration processes. It is structured as follows. First, it briefly surveys a few relevant articles on economic theories of integration and disintegration processes (Alesina and Spolaore 1997, Bolton and Roland 1997, Alesina et al. 2000, Casella and Feinstein 2002) and discusses their relevance for the study of the impact of economic benefits and costs on public opinion attitude towards the EU. Subsequently, it explores the links existing between such political economy literature and theories of fiscal federalism, especially with regard to normative considerations concerning the optimal allocation of competences in a union. Chapter 2 firstly proposes a model of citizens’ support for membership of international unions, with explicit reference to the EU; subsequently it tests the model on a panel of EU countries. What are the factors that influence public opinion support for the European Union (EU)? In international relations theory, the idea that citizens' support for the EU depends on material benefits deriving from integration, i.e. whether European integration makes individuals economically better off (utilitarian support), has been common since the 1970s, but has never been the subject of a formal treatment (Hix 2005). A small number of studies in the 1990s have investigated econometrically the link between national economic performance and mass support for European integration (Eichenberg and Dalton 1993; Anderson and Kalthenthaler 1996), but only making informal assumptions. The main aim of Chapter 2 is thus to propose and test our model with a view to providing a more complete and theoretically grounded picture of public support for the EU. Following theories of utilitarian support, we assume that citizens are in favour of membership if they receive economic benefits from it. To develop this idea, we propose a simple political economic model drawing on the recent economic literature on integration and disintegration processes. The basic element is the existence of a trade-off between the benefits of centralisation and the costs of harmonising policies in presence of heterogeneous preferences among countries. The approach we follow is that of the recent literature on the political economy of international unions and the unification or break-up of nations (Bolton and Roland 1997, Alesina and Wacziarg 1999, Alesina et al. 2001, 2005a, to mention only the relevant). The general perspective is that unification provides returns to scale in the provision of public goods, but reduces each member state’s ability to determine its most favoured bundle of public goods. In the simple model presented in Chapter 2, support for membership of the union is increasing in the union’s average income and in the loss of efficiency stemming from being outside the union, and decreasing in a country’s average income, while increasing heterogeneity of preferences among countries points to a reduced scope of the union. Afterwards we empirically test the model with data on the EU; more precisely, we perform an econometric analysis employing a panel of member countries over time. The second part of Chapter 2 thus tries to answer the following question: does public opinion support for the EU really depend on economic factors? The findings are broadly consistent with our theoretical expectations: the conditions of the national economy, differences in income among member states and heterogeneity of preferences shape citizens’ attitude towards their country’s membership of the EU. Consequently, this analysis offers some interesting policy implications for the present debate about ratification of the European Constitution and, more generally, about how the EU could act in order to gain more support from the European public. Citizens in many member states are called to express their opinion in national referenda, which may well end up in rejection of the Constitution, as recently happened in France and the Netherlands, triggering a European-wide political crisis. These events show that nowadays understanding public attitude towards the EU is not only of academic interest, but has a strong relevance for policy-making too. Chapter 3 empirically investigates the link between European integration and regional autonomy in Italy. Over the last few decades, the double tendency towards supranationalism and regional autonomy, which has characterised some European States, has taken a very interesting form in this country, because Italy, besides being one of the founding members of the EU, also implemented a process of decentralisation during the 1970s, further strengthened by a constitutional reform in 2001. Moreover, the issue of the allocation of competences among the EU, the Member States and the regions is now especially topical. The process leading to the drafting of European Constitution (even if then it has not come into force) has attracted much attention from a constitutional political economy perspective both on a normative and positive point of view (Breuss and Eller 2004, Mueller 2005). The Italian parliament has recently passed a new thorough constitutional reform, still to be approved by citizens in a referendum, which includes, among other things, the so called “devolution”, i.e. granting the regions exclusive competence in public health care, education and local police. Following and extending the methodology proposed in a recent influential article by Alesina et al. (2005b), which only concentrated on the EU activity (treaties, legislation, and European Court of Justice’s rulings), we develop a set of quantitative indicators measuring the intensity of the legislative activity of the Italian State, the EU and the Italian regions from 1973 to 2005 in a large number of policy categories. By doing so, we seek to answer the following broad questions. Are European and regional legislations substitutes for state laws? To what extent are the competences attributed by the European treaties or the Italian Constitution actually exerted in the various policy areas? Is their exertion consistent with the normative recommendations from the economic literature about their optimum allocation among different levels of government? The main results show that, first, there seems to be a certain substitutability between EU and national legislations (even if not a very strong one), but not between regional and national ones. Second, the EU concentrates its legislative activity mainly in international trade and agriculture, whilst social policy is where the regions and the State (which is also the main actor in foreign policy) are more active. Third, at least two levels of government (in some cases all of them) are significantly involved in the legislative activity in many sectors, even where the rationale for that is, at best, very questionable, indicating that they actually share a larger number of policy tasks than that suggested by the economic theory. It appears therefore that an excessive number of competences are actually shared among different levels of government. From an economic perspective, it may well be recommended that some competences be shared, but only when the balance between scale or spillover effects and heterogeneity of preferences suggests so. When, on the contrary, too many levels of government are involved in a certain policy area, the distinction between their different responsibilities easily becomes unnecessarily blurred. This may not only leads to a slower and inefficient policy-making process, but also risks to make it too complicate to understand for citizens, who, on the contrary, should be able to know who is really responsible for a certain policy when they vote in national,local or European elections or in referenda on national or European constitutional issues.

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Through studying German, Polish and Czech publications on Silesia, Mr. Kamusella found that most of them, instead of trying to objectively analyse the past, are devoted to proving some essential "Germanness", "Polishness" or "Czechness" of this region. He believes that the terminology and thought-patterns of nationalist ideology are so deeply entrenched in the minds of researchers that they do not consider themselves nationalist. However, he notes that, due to the spread of the results of the latest studies on ethnicity/nationalism (by Gellner, Hobsbawm, Smith, Erikson Buillig, amongst others), German publications on Silesia have become quite objective since the 1980s, and the same process (impeded by under funding) has been taking place in Poland and the Czech Republic since 1989. His own research totals some 500 pages, in English, presented on disc. So what are the traps into which historians have been inclined to fall? There is a tendency for them to treat Silesia as an entity which has existed forever, though Mr. Kamusella points out that it emerged as a region only at the beginning of the 11th century. These same historians speak of Poles, Czechs and Germans in Silesia, though Mr. Kamusella found that before the mid-19th century, identification was with an inhabitant's local area, religion or dynasty. In fact, a German national identity started to be forged in Prussian Silesia only during the Liberation War against Napoleon (1813-1815). It was concretised in 1861 in the form of the first Prussian census, when the language a citizen spoke was equated with his/her nationality. A similar census was carried out in Austrian Silesia only in 1881. The censuses forced the Silesians to choose their nationality despite their multiethnic multicultural identities. It was the active promotion of a German identity in Prussian Silesia, and Vienna's uneasy acceptance of the national identities in Austrian Silesia which stimulated the development of Polish national, Moravian ethnic and Upper Silesian ethnic regional identities in Upper Silesia, and Polish national, Czech national, Moravian ethnic and Silesian ethnic identities in Austrian Silesia. While traditional historians speak of the "nationalist struggle" as though it were a permanent characteristic of Silesia, Mr. Kamusella points out that such a struggle only developed in earnest after 1918. What is more, he shows how it has been conveniently forgotten that, besides the national players, there were also significant ethnic movements of Moravians, Upper Silesians, Silesians and the tutejsi (i.e. those who still chose to identify with their locality). At this point Mr. Kamusella moves into the area of linguistics. While traditionally historians have spoken of the conflicts between the three national languages (German, Polish and Czech), Mr Kamusella reminds us that the standardised forms of these languages, which we choose to dub "national", were developed only in the mid-18th century, after 1869 (when Polish became the official language in Galicia), and after the 1870s (when Czech became the official language in Bohemia). As for standard German, it was only widely promoted in Silesia from the mid 19th century onwards. In fact, the majority of the population of Prussian Upper Silesia and Austrian Silesia were bi- or even multilingual. What is more, the "Polish" and "Czech" Silesians spoke were not the standard languages we know today, but a continuum of West-Slavic dialects in the countryside and a continuum of West-Slavic/German creoles in the urbanised areas. Such was the linguistic confusion that, from time to time, some ethnic/regional and Church activists strove to create a distinctive Upper Silesian/Silesian language on the basis of these dialects/creoles, but their efforts were thwarted by the staunch promotion of standard German, and after 1918, of standard Polish and Czech. Still on the subject of language, Mr. Kamusella draws attention to a problem around the issue of place names and personal names. Polish historians use current Polish versions of the Silesian place names, Czechs use current Polish/Czech versions of the place names, and Germans use the German versions which were in use in Silesia up to 1945. Mr. Kamusella attempted to avoid this, as he sees it, nationalist tendency, by using an appropriate version of a place name for a given period and providing its modern counterpart in parentheses. In the case of modern place names he gives the German version in parentheses. As for the name of historical figures, he strove to use the name entered on the birth certificate of the person involved, and by doing so avoid such confusion as, for instance, surrounds the Austrian Silesian pastor L.J. Sherschnik, who in German became Scherschnick, in Polish, Szersznik, and in Czech, Sersnik. Indeed, the prospective Silesian scholar should, Mr. Kamusella suggests, as well as the three languages directly involved in the area itself, know English and French, since many documents and books on the subject have been published in these languages, and even Latin, when dealing in depth with the period before the mid-19th century. Mr. Kamusella divides the policies of ethnic cleansing into two categories. The first he classifies as soft, meaning that policy is confined to the educational system, army, civil service and the church, and the aim is that everyone learn the language of the dominant group. The second is the group of hard policies, which amount to what is popularly labelled as ethnic cleansing. This category of policy aims at the total assimilation and/or physical liquidation of the non-dominant groups non-congruent with the ideal of homogeneity of a given nation-state. Mr. Kamusella found that soft policies were consciously and systematically employed by Prussia/Germany in Prussian Silesia from the 1860s to 1918, whereas in Austrian Silesia, Vienna quite inconsistently dabbled in them from the 1880s to 1917. In the inter-war period, the emergence of the nation-states of Poland and Czechoslovakia led to full employment of the soft policies and partial employment of the hard ones (curbed by the League of Nations minorities protection system) in Czechoslovakian Silesia, German Upper Silesia and the Polish parts of Upper and Austrian Silesia. In 1939-1945, Berlin started consistently using all the "hard" methods to homogenise Polish and Czechoslovakian Silesia which fell, in their entirety, within the Reich's borders. After World War II Czechoslovakia regained its prewar part of Silesia while Poland was given its prewar section plus almost the whole of the prewar German province. Subsequently, with the active involvement and support of the Soviet Union, Warsaw and Prague expelled the majority of Germans from Silesia in 1945-1948 (there were also instances of the Poles expelling Upper Silesian Czechs/Moravians, and of the Czechs expelling Czech Silesian Poles/pro-Polish Silesians). During the period of communist rule, the same two countries carried out a thorough Polonisation and Czechisation of Silesia, submerging this region into a new, non-historically based administrative division. Democratisation in the wake of the fall of communism, and a gradual retreat from the nationalist ideal of the homogeneous nation-state with a view to possible membership of the European Union, caused the abolition of the "hard" policies and phasing out of the "soft" ones. Consequently, limited revivals of various ethnic/national minorities have been observed in Czech and Polish Silesia, whereas Silesian regionalism has become popular in the westernmost part of Silesia which remained part of Germany. Mr. Kamusella believes it is possible that, with the overcoming of the nation-state discourse in European politics, when the expression of multiethnicity and multilingualism has become the cause of the day in Silesia, regionalism will hold sway in this region, uniting its ethnically/nationally variegated population in accordance with the principle of subsidiarity championed by the European Union.

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At the end of the 20th century we live in a pluralist world in which national and ethnic identities play an appreciable role, sometimes provoking serious conflicts. Nationalist values seem to pose a serious challenge to liberal ones, particularly in the post-communist countries. Malinova asked whether liberalism must necessarily be contrasted with nationalism. Although nationalist issues has never been a major concern for liberal thinkers, in many countries they have had to take such issues into consideration and a form of 'liberalism nationalism' has its place in the history of political ideas. Some of the thinkers who tried to develop such an idea were liberals in the strict sense of the word and others were not, but all of them tried to elaborate a concept of nationalism that respected the rights of individuals and precluded discrimination on ethnic grounds. Malinova studied the history of the conceptualisation of nations and nationalism in the writings, of J.S. Mill, J.E.E. Acton, G. Mazzini, V. Soloviev, B. Chicherin, P. Struve, P. Miljoukov and T.G. Masaryk. Although it cannot be said that these theories form a coherent tradition, certain common elements of the different approaches can be identified. Malinova analysed the way that liberal nationalists interpreted the phenomenon of the nation and its rights in different historical contexts, reviewed the structure of their arguments and tried to evaluate this theoretical experience from the perspective of the contemporary debate on the problems of liberal nationalism and multiculturalism and recent debates on 'the national idea' in Russia.

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Advances in information technology and global data availability have opened the door for assessments of sustainable development at a truly macro scale. It is now fairly easy to conduct a study of sustainability using the entire planet as the unit of analysis; this is precisely what this work set out to accomplish. The study began by examining some of the best known composite indicator frameworks developed to measure sustainability at the country level today. Most of these were found to value human development factors and a clean local environment, but to gravely overlook consumption of (remote) resources in relation to nature’s capacity to renew them, a basic requirement for a sustainable state. Thus, a new measuring standard is proposed, based on the Global Sustainability Quadrant approach. In a two‐dimensional plot of nations Human Development Index (HDI) vs. their Ecological Footprint (EF) per capita, the Sustainability Quadrant is defined by the area where both dimensions satisfy the minimum conditions of sustainable development: an HDI score above 0.8 (considered ‘high’ human development), and an EF below the fair Earth‐share of 2.063 global hectares per person. After developing methods to identify those countries that are closest to the Quadrant in the present‐day and, most importantly, those that are moving towards it over time, the study tackled the question: what indicators of performance set these countries apart? To answer this, an analysis of raw data, covering a wide array of environmental, social, economic, and governance performance metrics, was undertaken. The analysis used country rank lists for each individual metric and compared them, using the Pearson Product Moment Correlation function, to the rank lists generated by the proximity/movement relative to the Quadrant measuring methods. The analysis yielded a list of metrics which are, with a high degree of statistical significance, associated with proximity to – and movement towards – the Quadrant; most notably: Favorable for sustainable development: use of contraception, high life expectancy, high literacy rate, and urbanization. Unfavorable for sustainable development: high GDP per capita, high language diversity, high energy consumption, and high meat consumption. A momentary gain, but a burden in the long‐run: high carbon footprint and debt. These results could serve as a solid stepping stone for the development of more reliable composite index frameworks for assessing countries’ sustainability.

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This paper analyzes the development of environmental concern by using the three waves of the environmental modules of the International Social Survey Programme (ISSP). First, we discuss the measurement of environmental concern and construct a ranking of countries according to the new 2010 ISSP results. Second, we analyze the determinants of environmental concern by employing multilevel models that take individual as well as context effects into account. Third, we explore the impact of attitudes on environmental behavior and support of environmental policies. The results show that environmental concern is closely correlated with the wealth of nations. However, environmental concern decreased in OECD as well as non-OECD nations slightly during the last two decades. The decline was lower in countries with improving economic conditions suggesting that economic growth helps to maintain higher levels of environmental concern. Furthermore, attitudes have a stronger impact on support of environmental policies as compared to everyday environmental behavior.

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Relatively little is known about the distribution and seasonal movement patterns of shortnose sturgeon Acipenser brevirostrum and Atlantic sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus occupying rivers in the northern part of their range. During 2006 and 2007, 40 shortnose sturgeon (66-113.4 cm fork length [FL]) and 8 Atlantic sturgeon (76.2-166.2 cm FL) were captured in the Penobscot River, Maine, implanted with acoustic transmitters, and monitored using an array of acoustic receivers in the Penobscot River estuary and Penobscot Bay. Shortnose sturgeon were present year round in the estuary and overwintered from fall (mid-October) to spring (mid-April) in the upper estuary. In early spring, all individuals moved downstream to the middle estuary. Over the course of the summer, many individuals moved upstream to approximately 2 km of the downstream-most dam (46 river kilometers [rkm] from the Penobscot River mouth [rkm 0]) by August. Most aggregated into an overwintering site (rkm 36.5) in mid-to late fall. As many as 50% of the tagged shortnose sturgeon moved into and out of the Penobscot River system during 2007, and 83% were subsequently detected by an acoustic array in the Kennebec River, located 150 km from the Penobscot River estuary. Atlantic sturgeon moved into the estuary from the ocean in the summer and concentrated into a 1.5-km reach. All Atlantic sturgeon moved to the ocean by fall, and two of these were detected in the Kennebec River. Although these behaviors are common for Atlantic sturgeon, regular coastal migrations of shortnose sturgeon have not been documented previously in this region. These results have important implications for future dam removals as well as for rangewide and river-specific shortnose sturgeon management.

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Recent studies of the linkages between the wealth of nations and the institutions of governance suggest that concentrating political power in a monarchy or a ruling coalition impedes economic growth and, moreover, that while power-diffusing reforms can enhance the wellbeing of society in general, opposition by groups benefitting from the status quo is predictable. In November 2005, Kenyans rejected a proposed constitution that, despite promises made by their new chief executive, would not have lessened the powers of the presidency. Using a unique, constituency-level dataset on the referendum vote, we estimate a model of the demand for power diffusion and find that ethnic groups' voting decisions are influenced by their expected gains and losses from constitutional change. The results also highlights the importance of ethnic divisions in hindering the power-diffusion process, and thus establish a channel through which ethnic fragmentation adversely impacts economic development.

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Background and Objective. Ever since the human development index was published in 1990 by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), many researchers started searching and corporative studying for more effective methods to measure the human development. Published in 1999, Lai’s “Temporal analysis of human development indicators: principal component approach” provided a valuable statistical way on human developmental analysis. This study presented in the thesis is the extension of Lai’s 1999 research. ^ Methods. I used the weighted principal component method on the human development indicators to measure and analyze the progress of human development in about 180 countries around the world from the year 1999 to 2010. The association of the main principal component obtained from the study and the human development index reported by the UNDP was estimated by the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient. The main principal component was then further applied to quantify the temporal changes of the human development of selected countries by the proposed Z-test. ^ Results. The weighted means of all three human development indicators, health, knowledge, and standard of living, were increased from 1999 to 2010. The weighted standard deviation for GDP per capita was also increased across years indicated the rising inequality of standard of living among countries. The ranking of low development countries by the main principal component (MPC) is very similar to that by the human development index (HDI). Considerable discrepancy between MPC and HDI ranking was found among high development countries with high GDP per capita shifted to higher ranks. The Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient between the main principal component and the human development index were all around 0.99. All the above results were very close to outcomes in Lai’s 1999 report. The Z test result on temporal analysis of main principal components from 1999 to 2010 on Qatar was statistically significant, but not on other selected countries, such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, and U.S.A.^ Conclusion. To synthesize the multi-dimensional measurement of human development into a single index, the weighted principal component method provides a good model by using the statistical tool on a comprehensive ranking and measurement. Since the weighted main principle component index is more objective because of using population of nations as weight, more effective when the analysis is across time and space, and more flexible when the countries reported to the system has been changed year after year. Thus, in conclusion, the index generated by using weighted main principle component has some advantage over the human development index created in UNDP reports.^

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Surface water conditions at the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1314 (Southern Gardar Drift, 56° 21.8' N, 27° 53.3' W, 2820 m depth) were inferred using planktic foraminifer assemblages between Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 19 and 11 (ca. 800-400 ka). Factor analysis of the planktic foraminifer assemblages suggests that the assemblage was controlled by three factors. The first factor (which explained 49% of the variance) is dominated by transitional and subpolar species and points to warm and salty surface water conditions (Atlantic water). The second factor (37%) is dominated by Neogloboquadrina pachyderma sin and has been associated with the presence of cold and low saline surface waters (Arctic water). Finally, the third factor (9%), linked to a significant presence of Turborotalita quinqueloba, reflects the closeness of the Arctic front (the boundary between Atlantic and Arctic water). The position of the Arctic and Polar fronts has been estimated across the glacial-interglacial cycles studied according to planktic foraminifer abundances from Site U1314 (and their factor analysis) combined with a synthesis of planktic foraminifer and diatom data from other North Atlantic sites. Regarding at the migrations of the Arctic front and the surface water masses distribution across each climatic cycle we determined five phases of development. Furthermore, deep ocean circulation changes observed in glacial-interglacial cycles have been associated with each phase. The high abundance of transitional-subpolar foraminifers (above 65% at Site U1314) during the early interglacial phase indicated that the Arctic front position and surface water masses distribution were similar to present conditions. During the late interglacial phase, N. pachyderma sin and T. quinqueloba slightly increased indicating that winter sea ice slightly expanded southwestwards whereas the ice volume remained stable or was still decreasing. N. pachyderma sin increased rapidly (above 65% at Site U1314) at the first phase of glacial periods indicating the expansion of the Arctic waters in the western subpolar North Atlantic. During the second phase of glacial periods the transitional-subpolar assemblage throve again in the central subpolar North Atlantic associated with strong warming events that followed ice-rafting events. The third phase of glacial periods corresponds to full glacial conditions in which N. pachyderma sin dominated the assemblage for the whole subpolar North Atlantic. This division in phases may be applied to the last four climatic cycles.

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Calcareous nannoplankton assemblages and benthic d18O isotopes of Pliocene deep-sea sediments of ODP site 1172 (East of Tasmania) have been studied to improve our knowledge of the Southern Ocean paleoceanography. Our study site is located just north of the Subtropical Front (STF), an ideal setting to monitor migrations of the STF during our study period, between 3.45 and 2.45 Ma. The assemblage identified at ODP site 1172 has been interpreted as characteristic for the transitional zone water mass, located south of the STF, based on: (i) the low abundances (< 1%) of subtropical taxa, (ii) relatively high percentages of Coccolithus pelagicus, a subpolar type species, (iii) abundances from 2-10% of Calcidiscus leptoporus, a species that frequently inhabits the zone south of the STF and (iv) the high abundances of small Noelaerhabdaceae which at present dominates the zone south of the STF. Across our interval the calcareous nannoplankton manifests glacial-interglacial variability. We have identified cold events, characterized by high abundances of C. pelagicus which coincide with glacial periods, except during G7. After 3.1 Ma cold events are more frequent, in concordance with global cooling trends. Around 2.75 Ma, the interglacial stage G7 is characterized by anomalous low temperatures which most likely are linked to definite closure of the Central American Seaway (CAS), an event that is believed to have had global consequences. A gradual increase of very small Reticulofenestra across our section marks a significant trend in the small Noelaerhabdaceae species group and has been linked to a general enhanced mixing of the water column in agreement with previous studies. It is suggested that a rapid decline of small Gephyrocapsa after isotopic stage G7 might be related to the cooling observed in our study site after the closure of the CAS.

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The Bounty Trough, east of New Zealand, lies along the southeastern edge of the present-day Subtropical Front (STF), and is a major conduit via the Bounty Channel, for terrigenous sediment supply from the uplifted Southern Alps to the abyssal Bounty Fan. Census data on 65 benthic foraminiferal faunas (>63 µm) from upper bathyal (ODP 1119), lower bathyal (DSDP 594) and abyssal (ODP 1122) sequences, test and refine existing models for the paleoceanographic and sedimentary history of the trough through the last 150 ka (marine isotope stages, MIS 6-1). Cluster analysis allows recognition of six species groups, whose distribution patterns coincide with bathymetry, the climate cycles and displaced turbidite beds. Detrended canonical correspondence analysis and comparisons with modern faunal patterns suggest that the groups are most strongly influenced by food supply (organic carbon flux), and to a lesser extent by bottom water oxygen and factors relating to sediment type. Major faunal changes at upper bathyal depths (1119) probably resulted from cycles of counter-intuitive seaward-landward migrations of the Southland Front (SF) (north-south sector of the STF). Benthic foraminiferal changes suggest that lower nutrient, cool Subantarctic Surface Water (SAW) was overhead in warm intervals, and higher nutrient-bearing, warm neritic Subtropical Surface Water (STW) was overhead in cold intervals. At lower bathyal depths (594), foraminiferal changes indicate increased glacial productivity and lowered bottom oxygen, attributed to increased upwelling and inflow of cold, nutrient-rich, Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) and shallowing of the oxygen-minimum zone (upper Circum Polar Deep Water, CPDW). The observed cyclical benthic foraminiferal changes are not a result of associations migrating up and down the slope, as glacial faunas (dominated by Globocassidulina canalisuturata and Eilohedra levicula at upper and lower bathyal depths, respectively) are markedly different from those currently living in the Bounty Trough. On the abyssal Bounty Fan (1122), faunal changes correlate most strongly with grain size, and are attributed to varying amounts of mixing of displaced and in-situ faunas. Most of the displaced foraminifera in turbiditic sand beds are sourced from mid-outer shelf depths at the head of the Bounty Channel. Turbidity currents were more prevalent during, but not restricted to, glacial intervals.

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Instrumental data suggest that major shifts in tropical Pacific atmospheric dynamics and hydrology have occurred within the past century, potentially in response to anthropogenic warming. To better understand these trends, we use the hydrogen isotopic ratios of terrestrial higher plant leaf waxes (DDwax) in marine sediments from southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia, to compile a detailed reconstruction of central Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) hydrologic variability spanning most of the last two millennia. Our paleodata are highly correlated with a monsoon reconstruction from Southeast Asia, indicating that intervals of strong East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) activity are associated with a weaker Indonesian monsoon (IM). Furthermore, the centennial-scale oscillations in our data follow known changes in Northern Hemisphere climate (e.g., the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period) implying a dynamic link between Northern Hemisphere temperatures and IPWP hydrology. The inverse relationship between the EASM and IM suggests that migrations of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and associated changes in monsoon strength caused synoptic hydrologic shifts in the IPWP throughout most of the past two millennia.

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Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1119 is located at water depth 395 m near the subtropical front (STF; here represented by the Southland Front), just downslope from the shelf edge of eastern South Island, New Zealand. The upper 86.19 metres composite depth (mcd) of Site 1119 sediment was deposited at an average sedimentation rate of 34 cm/kyr during Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 1-8 (0-252 ka), and is underlain across a ~25 kyr intra-MIS 8 unconformity by MIS 8.5-11 (277-367 ka) and older sediment deposited at ~14 cm/kyr. A time scale is assigned to Site 1119 using radiocarbon dates for the period back to ~39 ka, and, prior to then, by matching its climatic record with that of the Vostok ice core, which it closely resembles. Four palaeoceanographic proxy measures for surface water masses vary together with the sandy-muddy, glacial-interglacial (G/I) cyclicity at the site. Interglacial intervals are characterised by heavy delta13C, high colour reflectance (a proxy for carbonate content), low Q-ray (a proxy for clay content) and light delta18O; conversely, glacial intervals exhibit light delta13C, low reflectance, high Q-ray and heavy delta18O signatures. Early interglacial intervals are represented by silty clays with 10-105-cm-thick beds of sharp-based (Chondrites-burrowed), shelly, graded, fine sand. The sands are rich in foraminifera, and were deposited distant from the shoreline under the influence of longitudinal flow in relatively deep water. Glacial intervals comprise mostly micaceous silty clay, though with some thin (2-10 cm thick) sands present also at peak cold periods, and contain the cold-water scallop Zygochlamys delicatula. Interglacial sandy intervals are characterised by relatively low sedimentation rates of 5-32 cm/kyr; cold climate intervals MIS 10, 6 and 2 have successively higher sedimentation rates of 45, 69 and 140 cm/kyr. Counter-intuitively,and forced by the bathymetric control of a laterally-moving shoreline during G/I and I/G transitions, the 1119 core records a southeasterly (seaward) movement of the STF during early glacial periods, accompanied by the incursion of subtropical water (STW) above the site, and northwesterly (landward) movement during late glacial and interglacial times, resulting in a dominant influence then of subantarctic surface water (SAW). The history of passage of these different water masses at the site is clearly delineated by their characteristic delta13C values. The intervals of thin, graded sands-muds which occur within MIS 2-3, 6, 7.4 and 10 indicate the onset at times of peak cold of intermittent bottom currents caused by strengthened and expanded frontal flows along the STF, which at such times lay near Site 1119 in close proximity to seaward-encroaching subantarctic waters within the Bounty gyre. In common with other nearby Southern Hemisphere records, the cold period which represents the last glacial maximum lasted between ~23-18 ka at Site 1119, during which time the STF and Subantarctic Front (SAF) probably merged into a single intense frontal zone around the head of the adjacent Bounty Trough.