A modelling approach to the development of an active management strategy for the Queen Elizabeth II reservoir

This article outlines the outcome of work that set out to provide one of the specified integral contributions to the overarching objectives of the EU- sponsored LIFE98 project described in this volume. Among others, these included a requirement to marry automatic monitoring and dynamic modelling approaches in the interests of securing better management of water quality in lakes and reservoirs. The particular task given to us was to devise the elements of an active management strategy for the Queen Elizabeth II Reservoir. This is one of the larger reservoirs supplying the population of the London area: after purification and disinfection, its water goes directly to the distribution network and to the consumers. The quality of the water in the reservoir is of primary concern, for the greater is the content of biogenic materials, including phytoplankton, then the more prolonged is the purification and the more expensive is the treatment. Whatever good that phytoplankton may do by way of oxygenation and oxidative purification, it is eventually relegated to an impurity that has to be removed from the final product. Indeed, it has been estimated that the cost of removing algae and microorganisms from water represents about one quarter of its price at the tap. In chemically fertile waters, such as those typifying the resources of the Thames Valley, there is thus a powerful and ongoing incentive to be able to minimise plankton growth in storage reservoirs. Indeed, the Thames Water company and its predecessor undertakings, have a long and impressive history of confronting and quantifying the fundamentals of phytoplankton growth in their reservoirs and of developing strategies for operation and design to combat them. The work to be described here follows in this tradition. However, the use of the model PROTECH-D to investigate present phytoplankton growth patterns in the Queen Elizabeth II Reservoir questioned the interpretation of some of the recent observations. On the other hand, it has reinforced the theories underpinning the original design of this and those Thames-Valley storage reservoirs constructed subsequently. The authors recount these experiences as an example of how simulation models can hone the theoretical base and its application to the practical problems of supplying water of good quality at economic cost, before the engineering is initiated.

Simulating fisheries for the assessment of optimum harvesting strategies

Some results of a line of research explored by the author in recent years, and concerning the small-scale fisheries of Mexico are discussed. Clarity of goals for fisheries management is stressed as a departure point before taking any step towards model building. Age-structured simulation models require input data and parameters such as growth rates, natural mortality, age at first capture and maturity, longevity, the longest possible catch records series, and estimates of numbers caught per age group. The link between each cohort and the following can then be established by means of the Ricker stock recruitment or the Beverton-Holt models. Simulation experiments can then be carried out by changing fishing mortality. Whenever data on profits and costs and catch are available, these can also be analyzed. The use of simulation models is examined with emphasis on the benefits derived from their use for fisheries management.

Energy retrofits in social housing. Analysis of its thermal behaviour.

468 p.

On holism, reductionism and working from 9 to 5

A discussion is presented on the 2 approaches - holism and reductionism - in the study of environmental sciences, making reference to various projects presently being conducted by ICLARM and its collaborators using the holistic approach. Schematic representations are given of ICLARM's FISHBASE, the ECOPATH II model of the Peruvian upwelling ecosystem and submodels which may be incorporated in large simulation models of the upwelling system, and also material flows in a rice-fish/shrimp integrated farming systems of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam.

Planejamento de recursos hídricos de áreas rurais degradadas: aplicação do modelo SWAT em bacia hidrográfica experimental na região Noroeste do Estado do Rio de Janeiro.

A degradação ambiental do Noroeste do Estado do Rio de Janeiro tem se intensificado nas últimas décadas devido às práticas agrícolas não preservacionistas. Esta situação, que decorre do uso inadequado do solo, tem implicado em mudanças na oferta hídrica em grau variável nos municípios da região com prejuízos econômicos nas atividades dos pequenos e médios proprietários rurais e na qualidade de vida. A abordagem para enfrentar problemas deste tipo depende da participação efetiva das instâncias de governo e dos órgãos responsáveis pela gestão dos recursos hídricos. No âmbito da hidrologia os modelos hidrológicos com base no uso e ocupação do solo são ferramentas que podem auxiliar com ótimo custo e benefício a geração de informações em bacias hidrográficas, instrumentadas ou não. Os modelos são úteis ao planejamento e à tomada de decisão por possibilitarem a previsão de vazões e simulação de cenários sobre o uso do solo e qualidade da água. Neste sentido, o presente estudo pretende dar sua contribuição ao avaliar a adequabilidade do modelo SWAT simular o processo chuva-vazão na microbacia experimental de Santa Maria e Cambiocó, com 13,5 km2, localizada na região hidrográfica do rio Muriaé, afluente do rio Paraíba do Sul. O SWAT tem sido empregado em bacias agrícolas nos EUA, na Europa e, atualmente, na China, sudeste asiático e Irã, entre outros países, e na última década maior inserção no meio acadêmico brasileiro. A versão 2005 do modelo foi utilizada por meio da sua interface SIG para simular as vazões médias diárias com base na precipitação medida no intervalo de 15 minutos no período de 2005/2006. As vazões simuladas foram comparadas com as vazões observadas no exutório da microbacia. Foram testadas as ferramentas de análise de sensibilidade e autocalibração. O método de calibração manual foi usado para o ajuste por tentativa e erro. Os parâmetros ajustados corresponderam ao CN2 e ESCO. Os valores obtidos na calibração para os coeficientes estatísticos R2, NSE, PBIAS e RSR foram 0,80, 0,80, 7,02 e 0,45, respectivamente, indicando escore muito bom, o que foi confirmado pela inspeção dos hidrogramas. As saídas validadas para período diferente da calibração forneceram para os mesmos coeficientes os valores 0,84, 0,80, 25,92 e 0,44. Os dois primeiros, com escore muito bom. O valor de PBIAS, no limite do satisfatório, e RSR, muito bom. O desempenho permitiu concluir que a simulação com o SWAT foi adequada. Em relação às pesquisas que têm sido realizadas no Brasil os valores obtidos para os indicadores foram semelhantes, indicando a capacidade do modelo para novos estudos nesta microbacia que considerem os usos consuntivos e cenários de uso do solo.

Enfoque da estatística espacial em modelos dinâmicos de mudança do uso do solo.

O atual nível das mudanças uso do solo causa impactos nas mudanças ambientais globais. Os processos de mudanças do uso e cobertura do solo são processos complexos e não acontecem ao acaso sobre uma região. Geralmente estas mudanças são determinadas localmente, regionalmente ou globalmente por fatores geográficos, ambientais, sociais, econômicos e políticos interagindo em diversas escalas temporais e espaciais. Parte desta complexidade é capturada por modelos de simulação de mudanças do uso e cobertura do solo. Uma etapa do processo de simulação do modelo CLUE-S é a quantificação da influência local dos impulsores de mudança sobre a probabilidade de ocorrência de uma classe de uso do solo. Esta influência local é obtida ajustando um modelo de regressão logística. Um modelo de regressão espacial é proposto como alternativa para selecionar os impulsores de mudanças. Este modelo incorpora a informação da vizinhança espacial existente nos dados que não é considerada na regressão logística. Baseado em um cenário de tendência linear para a demanda agregada do uso do solo, simulações da mudança do uso do solo para a microbacia do Coxim, Mato Grosso do Sul, foram geradas, comparadas e analisadas usando o modelo CLUE-S sob os enfoques da regressão logística e espacial para o período de 2001 a 2011. Ambos os enfoques apresentaram simulações com muito boa concordância, medidas de acurácia global e Kappa altos, com o uso do solo para o ano de referência de 2004. A diferença entre os enfoques foi observada na distribuição espacial da simulação do uso do solo para o ano 2011, sendo o enfoque da regressão espacial que teve a simulação com menor discrepância com a demanda do uso do solo para esse ano.

Uma Simulação computacional do passeio aleatório simples

Em 1828 foi observado um fenômeno no microscópio em que se visualizava minúsculos grãos de pólen mergulhados em um líquido em repouso que mexiam-se de forma aleatória, desenhando um movimento desordenado. A questão era compreender este movimento. Após cerca de 80 anos, Einstein (1905) desenvolveu uma formulação matemática para explicar este fenômeno, tratado por movimento Browniano, teoria cada vez mais desenvolvida em muitas das áreas do conhecimento, inclusive recentemente em modelagem computacional. Objetiva-se pontuar os pressupostos básicos inerentes ao passeio aleatório simples considerando experimentos com e sem problema de valor de contorno para melhor compreensão ao no uso de algoritmos aplicados a problemas computacionais. Foram explicitadas as ferramentas necessárias para aplicação de modelos de simulação do passeio aleatório simples nas três primeiras dimensões do espaço. O interesse foi direcionado tanto para o passeio aleatório simples como para possíveis aplicações para o problema da ruína do jogador e a disseminação de vírus em rede de computadores. Foram desenvolvidos algoritmos do passeio aleatório simples unidimensional sem e com o problema do valor de contorno na plataforma R. Similarmente, implementados para os espaços bidimensionais e tridimensionais,possibilitando futuras aplicações para o problema da disseminação de vírus em rede de computadores e como motivação ao estudo da Equação do Calor, embora necessita um maior embasamento em conceitos da Física e Probabilidade para dar continuidade a tal aplicação.

Stock-rebuilding time isopleths and constant-F stock-rebuilding plans for overfished stocks

Stock-rebuilding time isopleths relate constant levels of fishing mortality (F), stock biomass, and management goals to rebuilding times for overfished stocks. We used simulation models with uncertainty about FMSY and variability in annual intrinsic growth rates (ry) to calculate rebuilding time isopleths for Georges Bank yellowtail flounder, Limanda ferruginea, and cowcod rockfish, Sebastes levis, in the Southern California Bight. Stock-rebuilding time distributions from stochastic models were variable and right-skewed, indicating that rebuilding may take less or substantially more time than expected. The probability of long rebuilding times increased with lower biomass, higher F, uncertainty about FMSY, and autocorrelation in ry values. Uncertainty about FMSY had the greatest effect on rebuilding times. Median recovery times from simulations were insensitive to model assumptions about uncertainty and variability, suggesting that median recovery times should be considered in rebuilding plans. Isopleths calculated in previous studies by deterministic models approximate median, rather than mean, rebuilding times. Stochastic models allow managers to specify and evaluate the risk (measured as a probability) of not achieving a rebuilding goal according to schedule. Rebuilding time isopleths can be used for stocks with a range of life histories and can be based on any type of population dynamics model. They are directly applicable with constant F rebuilding plans but are also useful in other cases. We used new algorithms for simulating autocorrelated process errors from a gamma distribution and evaluated sensitivity to statistical distributions assumed for ry. Uncertainty about current biomass and fishing mortality rates can be considered with rebuilding time isopleths in evaluating and designing constant-F rebuilding plans.

Design and optimization of a 250nm SOI LDMOSFET

This work is aimed at optimising the static performance of a high voltage SOI LDMOSFET. Starting with a conventional LDMOSFET, 2D and 3D numerical simulation models, able to accurately match datasheet values, have been developed. Moving from the original device, several design techniques have been investigated with the target of improving the breakdown voltage and the ON-state resistance. The considered design techniques are based on the modification of the doping profile of the drift region and the Superjunction design technique. The paper shows that a single step doping within the drift region is the best design choice for the considered device and is found to give a 24% improvement in the breakdown voltage and a 17% reduction of the ON-state resistance. © 2011 IEEE.

A Computer integrated unified modelling approach to responsive manufacturing

Computer modelling approaches have significant potential to enable decision-making about various aspects of responsive manufacturing. In order to understand the system prior to the selection of any responsiveness strategy, multiple process segments of organisations need to be modelled. The article presents a novel systematic approach for creating coherent sets of unified enterprise, simulation and other supporting models that collectively facilitate responsiveness. In this approach, enterprise models are used to explicitly define relatively enduring relationships between (i) production planning and control (PPC) processes, that implement a particular strategy and (ii) process-oriented elements of production systems, that are work loaded by the PPC processes. Coherent simulation models, can in part be derived from the enterprise models, so that they computer execute production system behaviours. In this way, time-based performance outcomes can be simulated; so that the impacts of alternative PPC strategies on the planning and controlling historical or forecasted patterns of workflow, through (current and possible future) production system models, can be analysed. The article describes the unified modelling approach conceived and its application in a furniture industry case study small and medium enterprise (SME). Copyright © 2010 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Inverse induction motor modelling of a submarine propulsion system

An inherent trade-off exists in simulation model development and employment: a trade-off between the level of detail simulated and the simulation models computational cost. It is often desirable to simulate a high level of detail to a high degree of accuracy. However, due to the nature of design optimisation, which requires a large number of design evaluations, the application of such simulation models can be prohibitively expensive. A induction motor modelling approache to reduce the computational cost while maintaining a high level of detail and accuracy in the final design is presented. © 2012 IEEE.

Enhanced integrated modelling approach to reconfiguring manufacturing enterprises

Dynamism and uncertainty are real challenges for present day manufacturing enterprises (MEs). Reasons include: an increasing demand for customisation, reduced time to market, shortened product life cycles and globalisation. MEs can reduce competitive pressure by becoming reconfigurable and change-capable. However, modern manufacturing philosophies, including agile and lean, must complement the application of reconfigurable manufacturing paradigms. Choosing and applying the best philosophies and techniques is very difficult as most MEs deploy complex and unique configurations of processes and resource systems, and seek economies of scope and scale in respect of changing and distinctive product flows. It follows that systematic methods of achieving model driven reconfiguration and interoperation of component based manufacturing systems are required to design, engineer and change future MEs. This thesis, titled Enhanced Integrated Modelling Approach to Reconfiguring Manufacturing Enterprises , introduces the development and prototyping a model-driven environment for the design, engineering, optimisation and control of the reconfiguration of MEs with an embedded capability to handle various types of change. The thesis describes a novel systematic approach, namely enhanced integrated modelling approach (EIMA), in which coherent sets of integrated models are created that facilitates the engineering of MEs especially their production planning and control (PPC) systems. The developed environment supports the engineering of common types of strategic, tactical and operational processes found in many MEs. The EIMA is centred on the ISO standardised CIMOSA process modelling approach. Early study led to the development of simulation models during which various CIMOSA shortcomings were observed, especially in its support for aspects of ME dynamism. A need was raised to structure and create semantically enriched models hence forming an enhanced integrated modelling environment. The thesis also presents three industrial case examples: (1) Ford Motor Company; (2) Bradgate Furniture Manufacturing Company; and (3) ACM Bearings Company. In order to understand the system prior to realisation of any PPC strategy, multiple process segments of any target organisation need to be modelled. Coherent multi-perspective case study models are presented that have facilitated process reengineering and associated resource system configuration. Such models have a capability to enable PPC decision making processes in support of the reconfiguration of MEs. During these case studies, capabilities of a number of software tools were exploited such as Arena®, Simul8®, Plant Simulation®, MS Visio®, and MS Excel®. Case study results demonstrated effectiveness of the concepts related to the EIMA. The research has resulted in new contributions to knowledge in terms of new understandings, concepts and methods in following ways: (1) a structured model driven integrated approach to the design, optimisation and control of future reconfiguration of MEs. The EIMA is an enriched and generic process modelling approach with capability to represent both static and dynamic aspects of an ME; and (2) example application cases showing benefits in terms of reduction in lead time, cost and resource load and in terms of improved responsiveness of processes and resource systems with a special focus on PPC; (3) identification and industrial application of a new key performance indicator (KPI) known as P3C the measuring and monitoring of which can aid in enhancing reconfigurability and responsiveness of MEs; and (4) an enriched modelling concept framework (E-MUNE) to capture requirements of static and dynamic aspects of MEs where the conceptual framework has the capability to be extended and modified according to the requirements. The thesis outlines key areas outlining a need for future research into integrated modelling approaches, interoperation and updating mechanisms of partial models in support of the reconfiguration of MEs.

基于时间Petri网的制造过程模型研究

分析了时间Petri网的激发规则、托肯可用时间和抑制弧等特性,以及制造过程中随机故障的特征。提出不同的时间关联方式对应的多种建模方法,考虑不同的故障发现模式、不同的作业处理策略,建立相应的单机制造过程模型。在此基础上采用模块化和层次化方法可以构建复杂制造过程的时间着色Petri网模型,并可以转换成仿真模型,进一步分析随机机器故障对制造过程性能的影响。

Análise de sensibilidade do modelo de Caprio para simulação de evolução de resistência de pragas a toxinas BT.

2009

Simulación de un modelo de balance de nitrógeno en el sistema suelo - caña de azúcar.

El objetivo de este estudio es utilizar el Modelo de Balance de Nitrógeno realizado en base al modelo CERES N, para el sistema suelo ? caña de azúcar en un manejo sin quema. Los modelos de dinámica del nitrógeno pueden servir como un sistema de orientación para la recomendación de fertilizante nitrogenado en diferentes condiciones a través de distintos escenarios y orientación del manejo adecuado de los cañaverales, con el objetivo de obtener la máxima productividad del cultivo y el mejor uso de los recursos naturales e insumos.