Trajectory prediction uncertainty modelling for Air Traffic Management

The anticipated growth of air traffic worldwide requires enhanced Air Traffic Management (ATM) technologies and procedures to increase the system capacity, efficiency, and resilience, while reducing environmental impact and maintaining operational safety. To deal with these challenges, new automation and information exchange capabilities are being developed through different modernisation initiatives toward a new global operational concept called Trajectory Based Operations (TBO), in which aircraft trajectory information becomes the cornerstone of advanced ATM applications. This transformation will lead to higher levels of system complexity requiring enhanced Decision Support Tools (DST) to aid humans in the decision making processes. These will rely on accurate predicted aircraft trajectories, provided by advanced Trajectory Predictors (TP). The trajectory prediction process is subject to stochastic effects that introduce uncertainty into the predictions. Regardless of the assumptions that define the aircraft motion model underpinning the TP, deviations between predicted and actual trajectories are unavoidable. This thesis proposes an innovative method to characterise the uncertainty associated with a trajectory prediction based on the mathematical theory of Polynomial Chaos Expansions (PCE). Assuming univariate PCEs of the trajectory prediction inputs, the method describes how to generate multivariate PCEs of the prediction outputs that quantify their associated uncertainty. Arbitrary PCE (aPCE) was chosen because it allows a higher degree of flexibility to model input uncertainty. The obtained polynomial description can be used in subsequent prediction sensitivity analyses thanks to the relationship between polynomial coefficients and Sobol indices. The Sobol indices enable ranking the input parameters according to their influence on trajectory prediction uncertainty. The applicability of the aPCE-based uncertainty quantification detailed herein is analysed through a study case. This study case represents a typical aircraft trajectory prediction problem in ATM, in which uncertain parameters regarding aircraft performance, aircraft intent description, weather forecast, and initial conditions are considered simultaneously. Numerical results are compared to those obtained from a Monte Carlo simulation, demonstrating the advantages of the proposed method. The thesis includes two examples of DSTs (Demand and Capacity Balancing tool, and Arrival Manager) to illustrate the potential benefits of exploiting the proposed uncertainty quantification method.

Lot production size problem and simulation of urban transport

OBJECTIVES AND STUDY METHOD: There are two subjects in this thesis: “Lot production size for a parallel machine scheduling problem with auxiliary equipment” and “Bus holding for a simulated traffic network”. Although these two themes seem unrelated, the main idea is the optimization of complex systems. The “Lot production size for a parallel machine scheduling problem with auxiliary equipment” deals with a manufacturing setting where sets of pieces form finished products. The aim is to maximize the profit of the finished products. Each piece may be processed in more than one mold. Molds must be mounted on machines with their corresponding installation setup times. The key point of our methodology is to solve the single period lot-sizing decisions for the finished products together with the piece-mold and the mold-machine assignments, relaxing the constraint that a single mold may not be used in two machines at the same time. For the “Bus holding for a simulated traffic network” we deal with One of the most annoying problems in urban bus operations is bus bunching, which happens when two or more buses arrive at a stop nose to tail. Bus bunching reflects an unreliable service that affects transit operations by increasing passenger-waiting times. This work proposes a linear mathematical programming model that establishes bus holding times at certain stops along a transit corridor to avoid bus bunching. Our approach needs real-time input, so we simulate a transit corridor and apply our mathematical model to the data generated. Thus, the inherent variability of a transit system is considered by the simulation, while the optimization model takes into account the key variables and constraints of the bus operation. CONTRIBUTIONS AND CONCLUSIONS: For the “Lot production size for a parallel machine scheduling problem with auxiliary equipment” the relaxation we propose able to find solutions more efficiently, moreover our experimental results show that most of the solutions verify that molds are non-overlapping even if they are installed on several machines. We propose an exact integer linear programming, a Relax&Fix heuristic, and a multistart greedy algorithm to solve this problem. Experimental results on instances based on real-world data show the efficiency of our approaches. The mathematical model and the algorithm for the lot production size problem, showed in this research, can be used for production planners to help in the scheduling of the manufacturing. For the “Bus holding for a simulated traffic network” most of the literature considers quadratic models that minimize passenger-waiting times, but they are harder to solve and therefore difficult to operate by real-time systems. On the other hand, our methodology reduces passenger-waiting times efficiently given our linear programming model, with the characteristic of applying control intervals just every 5 minutes.

Effects of truck traffic on top-down fatigue cracking performance of flexible pavements using a new mechanics-based analysis framework

The mechanics-based analysis framework predicts top-down fatigue cracking initiation time in asphalt concrete pavements by utilising fracture mechanics and mixture morphology-based property. To reduce the level of complexity involved, traffic data were characterised and incorporated into the framework using the equivalent single axle load (ESAL) approach. There is a concern that this kind of simplistic traffic characterisation might result in erroneous performance predictions and pavement structural designs. This paper integrates axle load spectra and other traffic characterisation parameters into the mechanics-based analysis framework and studies the impact these traffic characterisation parameters have on predicted fatigue cracking performance. The traffic characterisation inputs studied are traffic growth rate, axle load spectra, lateral wheel wander and volume adjustment factors. For this purpose, a traffic integration approach which incorporates Monte Carlo simulation and representative traffic characterisation inputs was developed. The significance of these traffic characterisation parameters was established by evaluating a number of field pavement sections. It is evident from the results that all the traffic characterisation parameters except truck wheel wander have been observed to have significant influence on predicted top-down fatigue cracking performance.

Traffic Signal Optimization of Urban Arterial Network by Vehicle-to-Infrastructure

Urbanization has occasionally been linked to negative consequences. Traffic light system in urban arterial networks plays an essential role to the operation of transport systems. The availability of new Intelligent Transportation System innovations paved the way for connecting vehicles and road infrastructure. GLOSA, or the Green Light Optimal Speed Advisory, is a recent integration of vehicle-to-everything (v2x) technology. This thesis emphasized GLOSA system's potential as a tool for addressing traffic signal optimization. GLOSA serves as an advisory to drivers, informing them of the speed they must maintain to reduce waiting time. The considered study area in this thesis is the Via Aurelio Saffi – Via Emilia Ponente corridor in the Metropolitan City of Bologna which has several signalized intersections. Several simulation runs were performed in SUMOPy software on each peak-hour period (morning and afternoon) using recent actual traffic count data. GLOSA devices were placed on a 300m GLOSA distance. Considering the morning peak-hour, GLOSA outperformed the actuated traffic signal control, which is the baseline scenario, in terms of average waiting time, average speed, average fuel consumption per vehicle and average CO2 emissions. A remarkable 97% reduction on both fuel consumption and CO2 emissions were obtained. The average speed of vehicles running through the simulation was increased as well by 7% and a time saved of 25%. Same results were obtained for the afternoon peak hour with a decrease of 98% on both fuel consumption and CO2 emissions, 20% decrease on average waiting time, and an increase of 2% in average speed. In addition to previously mentioned benefits of GLOSA, a 15% and 13% decrease in time loss were obtained during morning and afternoon peak-hour, respectively. Towards the goal of sustainability, GLOSA shows a promising result of significantly lowering fuel consumption and CO2 emissions per vehicle.

Comparison Between Automated And Microscopic Analysis In Body Fluids Cytology.

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Monte Carlo Simulation Of The Response Functions Of Cdte Detectors To Be Applied In X-ray Spectroscopy.

In this work, the energy response functions of a CdTe detector were obtained by Monte Carlo (MC) simulation in the energy range from 5 to 160keV, using the PENELOPE code. In the response calculations the carrier transport features and the detector resolution were included. The computed energy response function was validated through comparison with experimental results obtained with (241)Am and (152)Eu sources. In order to investigate the influence of the correction by the detector response at diagnostic energy range, x-ray spectra were measured using a CdTe detector (model XR-100T, Amptek), and then corrected by the energy response of the detector using the stripping procedure. Results showed that the CdTe exhibits good energy response at low energies (below 40keV), showing only small distortions on the measured spectra. For energies below about 80keV, the contribution of the escape of Cd- and Te-K x-rays produce significant distortions on the measured x-ray spectra. For higher energies, the most important correction is the detector efficiency and the carrier trapping effects. The results showed that, after correction by the energy response, the measured spectra are in good agreement with those provided by a theoretical model of the literature. Finally, our results showed that the detailed knowledge of the response function and a proper correction procedure are fundamental for achieving more accurate spectra from which quality parameters (i.e., half-value layer and homogeneity coefficient) can be determined.

Scanning electron microscopic study of the in situ effect of salivary stimulation on erosion and abrasion in human and bovine enamel

This in situ study investigated, using scanning electron microscopy, the effect of stimulated saliva on the enamel surface of bovine and human substrates submitted to erosion followed by brushing abrasion immediately or after one hour. During 2 experimental 7-day crossover phases, 9 previously selected volunteers wore intraoral palatal devices, with 12 enamel specimens (6 human and 6 bovine). In the first phase, the volunteers immersed the device for 5 minutes in 150 ml of a cola drink, 4 times a day (8h00, 12h00, 16h00 and 20h00). Immediately after the immersions, no treatment was performed in 4 specimens (ERO), 4 other specimens were immediately brushed (0 min) using a fluoride dentifrice and the device was replaced into the mouth. After 60 min, the other 4 specimens were brushed. In the second phase, the procedures were repeated but, after the immersions, the volunteers stimulated the salivary flow rate by chewing a sugar-free gum for 30 min. Enamel superficial alterations of all specimens were then evaluated using a scanning electron microscope. Enamel prism core dissolution was seen on the surfaces submitted to erosion, while on those submitted to erosion and to abrasion (both at 0 and 60 min) a more homogeneous enamel surface was observed, probably due to the removal of the altered superficial prism layer. For all the other variables - enamel substrate and salivary stimulation -, the microscopic pattern of the enamel specimens was similar.

Clinical, microscopic and imaging findings associated to Mccune-Albright syndrome: report of two cases

McCune-Albright syndrome is characterized by the triad café-au-lait cutaneous spots, polyostotic fibrous dysplasia and endocrinopathies. This article presents two cases of McCune-Albright syndrome in a middle-aged woman and a young girl. Both patients presented café-au-lait spots on the face and other parts of the body and expansion of the mandible with radiopaque-radiolucent areas with ground-glass radiographic appearance, and were diagnosed as having fibrous dysplasia and endocrine disorders. The patient of Case 1 had fibrous dysplasia on the upper and lower limbs, thorax, face and cranium, early puberty, hyperglycemia, hyperthyroidism and high serum alkaline phosphatase levels. The patient of Case 2 presented lesions on the upper limbs and evident endocrine disorders. In both cases presented in this article, the initial exam was made because of the mandibular lesion. However, a diagnosis of fibrous dysplasia must lead to investigation of the involvement of other bones, characterizing polyostotic fibrous dysplasia, which is manifested in a number of diseases. An accurate differential diagnosis is mandatory to determine the best treatment approach for each case.

Influence of intrapulpal pressure simulation on the bond strength of adhesive systems to dentin

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the influence of intrapulpal pressure simulation on the bonding effectiveness of etch & rinse and self-etch adhesives to dentin. Eighty sound human molars were distributed into eight groups, according to the permeability level of each sample, measured by an apparatus to assess hydraulic conductance (Lp). Thus, a similar mean permeability was achieved in each group. Three etch & rinse adhesives (Prime & Bond NT - PB, Single Bond -SB, and Excite - EX) and one self-etch system (Clearfil SE Bond - SE) were employed, varying the presence or absence of an intrapulpal pressure (IPP) simulation of 15 cmH2O. After adhesive and restorative procedures were carried out, the samples were stored in distilled water for 24 hours at 37°C, and taken for tensile bond strength (TBS) testing. Fracture analysis was performed using a light microscope at 40 X magnification. The data, obtained in MPa, were then submitted to the Kruskal-Wallis test ( a = 0.05). The results revealed that the TBS of SB and EX was significantly reduced under IPP simulation, differing from the TBS of PB and SE. Moreover, SE obtained the highest bond strength values in the presence of IPP. It could be concluded that IPP simulation can influence the bond strength of certain adhesive systems to dentin and should be considered when in vitro studies are conducted.

Evaluation of thermal simulation of households in the metropolitan region of São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract This paper aims at assessing the performance of a program of thermal simulation (Arquitrop) in different households in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The households were selected for the Wheezing Project which followed up children under 2 years old to monitor the occurrence of respiratory diseases. The results show that in all three study households there is a good approximation between the observed and the simulated indoor temperatures. It was also observed a fairly consistent and realistic behavior between the simulated indoor and the outdoor temperatures, describing the Arquitrop model as an efficient estimator and good representative of the thermal behavior of households in the city of Sao Paulo. The worst simulation is linked to the poorest type of construction. This may be explained by the bad quality of the construction, which the Architrop could not simulate adequately

The Process of Simulation Authoring/Creation by Chemistry Teachers: A Service Learning Experience

Two case studies are presented to describe the process of public school teachers authoring and creating chemistry simulations. They are part of the Virtual Didactic Laboratory for Chemistry, a project developed by the School of the Future of the University of Sao Paulo. the documental analysis of the material produced by two groups of teachers reflects different selection process for both themes and problem-situations when creating simulations. The study demonstrates the potential for chemistry learning with an approach that takes students' everyday lives into account and is based on collaborative work among teachers and researches. Also, from the teachers' perspectives, the possibilities of interaction that a simulation offers for classroom activities are considered.

Study of the antimicrobial peptide indolicidin and a mutant in micelle medium by molecular dynamics simulation

The antimicrobial peptide indolicidin (IND) and the mutant CP10A in hydrated micelles were studied using molecular dynamics simulations in order to observe whether the molecular dynamics and experimental data could be sufficiently correlated and a detailed description of the interaction of the antimicrobial peptides with a model of the membrane provided by a hydrated micelle system could be obtained. In agreement with the experiments, the simulations showed that the peptides are located near the surface of the micelles. Peptide insertions agree with available experimental data, showing deeper insertion of the mutant compared with the peptide IND. Major insertion into the hydrophobic core of the micelle by all tryptophan and mutated residues of CP10A in relation to IND was observed. The charged residues of the terminus regions of both peptides present similar behavior, indicating that the major differences in the interactions with the micelles of the peptides IND and CP10A occur in the case of the hydrophobic residues.

Traffic-Related Air Pollution and Perinatal Mortality: A Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND: Ambient levels of air pollution may affect the health of children, as indicated by studies of infant and perinatal mortality. Scientific evidence has also correlated low birth weight and preterm birth, which are important determinants of perinatal death, with air pollution. However, most of these studies used ambient concentrations measured at monitoring sites, which may not consider differential exposure to pollutants found at elevated concentrations near heavy-traffic roadways. OBJECTIVES: Our goal was to examine the association between traffic-related pollution and perinatal mortality. METHODS: We used the information collected for a case-control study conducted in 14 districts in the City of Sao Paulo, Brazil, regarding risk factors for perinatal deaths. We geocoded the residential addresses of cases (fetal and early neonatal deaths) and controls (children who survived the 28th day of life) and calculated a distance-weighted traffic density (DWTD) measure considering all roads contained in a buffer surrounding these homes. RESULTS: Logistic regression revealed a gradient of increasing risk of early neonatal death with higher exposure to traffic-related air pollution. Mothers exposed to the highest quartile of the DWTD compared with those less exposed exhibited approximately 50% increased risk (adjusted odds ratio = 1.47; 95% confidence interval, 0.67-3.19). Associations for fetal mortality were less consistent. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that motor vehicle exhaust exposures may be a risk factor for perinatal mortality.

Fossil groups in the Millennium Simulation Evolution of the brightest galaxies

Aims. We create a catalogue of simulated fossil groups and study their properties, in particular the merging histories of their first-ranked galaxies. We compare the simulated fossil group properties with those of both simulated non-fossil and observed fossil groups. Methods. Using simulations and a mock galaxy catalogue, we searched for massive (>5 x 10(13) h(-1) M-circle dot) fossil groups in the Millennium Simulation Galaxy Catalogue. In addition, we attempted to identify observed fossil groups in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 6 using identical selection criteria. Results. Our predictions on the basis of the simulation data are: (a) fossil groups comprise about 5.5% of the total population of groups/clusters with masses larger than 5 x 10(13) h(-1) M-circle dot. This fraction is consistent with the fraction of fossil groups identified in the SDSS, after all observational biases have been taken into account; (b) about 88% of the dominant central objects in fossil groups are elliptical galaxies that have a median R-band absolute magnitude of similar to-23.5-5 log h, which is typical of the observed fossil groups known in the literature; (c) first-ranked galaxies of systems with M > 5 x 10(13) h(-1) M-circle dot, regardless of whether they are either fossil or non-fossil, are mainly formed by gas-poor mergers; (d) although fossil groups, in general, assembled most of their virial masses at higher redshifts in comparison with non-fossil groups, first-ranked galaxies in fossil groups merged later, i.e. at lower redshifts, compared with their non-fossil-group counterparts. Conclusions. We therefore expect to observe a number of luminous galaxies in the centres of fossil groups that show signs of a recent major merger.

Fossil groups in the Millennium simulation Their environment and its evolution

Context. Fossil systems are defined to be X- ray bright galaxy groups ( or clusters) with a two- magnitude difference between their two brightest galaxies within half the projected virial radius, and represent an interesting extreme of the population of galaxy agglomerations. However, the physical conditions and processes leading to their formation are still poorly constrained. Aims. We compare the outskirts of fossil systems with that of normal groups to understand whether environmental conditions play a significant role in their formation. We study the groups of galaxies in both, numerical simulations and observations. Methods. We use a variety of statistical tools including the spatial cross- correlation function and the local density parameter Delta(5) to probe differences in the density and structure of the environments of "" normal"" and "" fossil"" systems in the Millennium simulation. Results. We find that the number density of galaxies surrounding fossil systems evolves from greater than that observed around normal systems at z = 0.69, to lower than the normal systems by z = 0. Both fossil and normal systems exhibit an increment in their otherwise radially declining local density measure (Delta(5)) at distances of order 2.5 r(vir) from the system centre. We show that this increment is more noticeable for fossil systems than normal systems and demonstrate that this difference is linked to the earlier formation epoch of fossil groups. Despite the importance of the assembly time, we show that the environment is different for fossil and non- fossil systems with similar masses and formation times along their evolution. We also confirm that the physical characteristics identified in the Millennium simulation can also be detected in SDSS observations. Conclusions. Our results confirm the commonly held belief that fossil systems assembled earlier than normal systems but also show that the surroundings of fossil groups could be responsible for the formation of their large magnitude gap.